the whole draft process a monster. The search engines light up every year around March and April with searches for Mel Kiper, NFL draft and mock drafts. With over 20 years worth of experience Mel Kiper Jr. is considered one of the leading authorities in draft analysis. But if you look at his track record is he really an NFL draft guru or just a more educated fan? We are talking about a man that predicted the 2008 Arizona Cardinals to finish dead last.

We will start off with the 1995 NFL draft where Mel Kiper Jr. felt very strongly about J.J Stokes and John Walsh. Coming out of UCLA J.J Stokes was considered by some to be the top receiver in the 1995 draft. Well Mel Kiper Jr. took it a step further and stated that he was a guaranteed All-Pro receiver and was highly critical of several teams for passing on him early on draft day. The San Francisco 49ers would end up taking the young receiver and he would play only 8 seasons and not once would he have over 800 yards in a season or make a Pro Bowl let alone gain All-Pro status.

In that same draft Mel Kiper Jr. had John Walsh projected as a 1st round pick. After running a 5.3 in the 40-yard dash and having a poor showing in throwing drills teams dropped him down the boards big time. Mel Kiper Jr. stuck to his projection and was livid on draft day when John Walsh fell all the way down to the 7th round in the draft. The young quarterback would be one and done in the NFL retiring after just one season with the Bengals.

A great deal of Mel Kiper Jr.'s problems with consistency have been with the quarterback position. For starters he said the following were all can't miss franchise quarterbacks: Alex Smith, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, David

Carr, Joey Harrington, Andre Ware and Jeff George. He said that Akili Smith was a better prospect than Culpepper or McNabb. He also said that Ryan Leaf had the right "attitude" to give him an advantage over Peyton Manning. Then you have the whole Jay Cutler scenario where he felt that Cutler was the most overhyped player in the draft and nowhere near as good as Matt Leinart or Vince Young. Here we are three seasons later and Jay Cutler threw for over 4,500 yards and made a Pro Bowl last season while Leinart and Young watched from the sidelines.

The Detroit Lions have had numerous busts in recent drafts but most of them were rated very highly by Mel Kiper Jr. in his evaluations. He felt that Joey Harrington was a franchise quarterback, Charles Rogers was the second best player in his class and that Mike Williams was the best player in the 2005 draft and would have a Hall of Fame NFL career. Well Charles Rogers and Mike Williams are no longer even in the NFL while Joey Harrington is a career backup.

As you can see even though he is considered a NFL draft wizard his evaluations and projections have been very hit or miss. In recent drafts I have found Mike Mayock to be slightly more accurate in terms of evaluating NFL talent as his picks seem to have produced more early results. I'm sure that Mel Kiper Jr. will continue to make projections in the future but just remember to take his comments with a grain of salt.

@4browns said:

I'd rather have Spiller, Haden or even Williams if you think we need to get rid of Rogers. Can never have enough good interior lineman. I think Rogers deal isn't going to be that bad.... Misdemeanor plea bargain, couple games suspension. Rubin played pretty well at NT last year anyway.

I'm hoping Berry falls to us at 7.

Good post, I agree with all.

No lies, we are very thin at WR.

I want Berry, I'll take Bryant though too, especially with Joe Haden appearing to be dropping down mocks...

I'd rather have Spiller, Haden or even Williams if you think we need to get rid of Rogers. Can never have enough good interior lineman. I think Rogers deal isn't going to be that bad.... Misdemeanor plea bargain, couple games suspension. Rubin played pretty well at NT last year anyway.

I'm hoping Berry falls to us at 7.

Zombo said:

Until Holmgren came along.

Thank God for fat, old NFL guys ... they don't fall in love with players because they look McDreamy.

Zombo

IT makes me think sometimes; RAC did not play BQ cos he knew what he saw in BQ. And all along we were hating RAC. Does anyone suppose that had RAC not been fired and we only replace the GM; we would have been as good as we are now ?

So............

WSS

Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer wrote:

5. NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper predicted the Browns will take Dez Bryant in the first round. I can almost guarantee you -- remember, it's ALMOST -- that the troubled receiver from Oklahoma State won't be the pick. The Browns don't want to endure a second dance with a Braylon Edwards type.

Kiper & McShay's Mock 4.0

--------------------------Kiper-----------------------McShay

1.Rams --------------Bradford ---------------------Bradford

2.Lions -----------------Suh --------------------------Suh

3.T.B G. --------------McCoy -----------------------G.McCoy

4.Was ----------------Okung ------------------------Okung

5.K.C ---------------Eric Berry --------------------Bryan Bulaga

6.Sea ------------Trent Williams ------------------Eric Berry

7.Cle ---------------Dez Bryant -------------------Dan Williams

8.Oak ------------Jimmy Clasuen ---------------Trent Williams

9.Buf --------------Bryan Bulaga ----------------Anthony Davis

10.Jac --------------C.J Spiller -------------------Earl Thomas

11.Den ------------Earl Thomas ---------------Rolando McClain

12.Mia ------------Dan Williams ----------------Derrick Morgan

13.49ers -----------Joe Haden -------------------Sergio Kindle

14.Sea ----------Derrick Morgan ------------------C.J Spiller

15.NYG ---------Rolando McClain ----------------Mike Iupati

16.Ten ---------Jason Pierre-Paul ------------Jason Pierre-Paul

17.49ers ---------Anthony Davis ---------------Jimmy Clausen

18.Pit ----------Maurkice Pouncer -----------Maurkice Pouncer

19.Atl ----------Brandon Graham ------------Brandon Graham

20.Hou -----------Kyle Wilson --------------------Joe Haden

21.Cin ---------Jermain Gresham ---------------Dez Bryant

22.N.E -----------Sergio Kindle ----------------Everson Griffin

23.G.B -------------Mike Iupati -----------------Charles Brown

24.Phi -----------Kareem Jackson ----------------Kyle Wilson

25.Bal ---------Demaryius Thomas ----------Demaryius Thomas

26.Ari ---------Sean Weatherspoon ----------Jermain Gresham

27.Dal -----------Charles Brown -----------------Taylor Mays

28.S.D -----------Ryan Mathews ---------------Terrence Cody

29.NYJ ----------Everson Griffen ----------------Jared Odrick

30.Min ------------Taylor Mays ----------------Kareem Jackson

31.Ind -------------Jared Orick ------------------Jerry Hughes

32.N.O------------Jerry Hughes --------------Sean Weatherspoon

Kiper: I've talked to people around the league about Dez Bryant, and I can tell you the notion that there are concerns about Bryant's character is blown out of proportion. Here the Browns get the best WR in the draft, a threat they really need, and a player that, in a football environment, is a workhorse and a producer. I think K.C. will also be looking hard at Bryant at No. 5, but will ultimately pass and allow the Browns to get him.

McShay: This would be a frustrating scenario for the Browns, who should be hoping Berry falls to them at this slot. RB C.J. Spiller would be a possibility but don't count out Williams, who appears to be a reach but will garner plenty of attention over the next few picks because he's the only legitimate first-round nose tackle in this class. Finding a long-term replacement for current NT Shaun Rogers is high on the priority list, and Rogers' recent run-in with the law might only increase the urgency.

If Berry is gone AND they feel the need to keep this pick, i think he's potentially the best guy on the board.

@mr.-t said:

the duckbill. wait till draft day, he's got that greezy ass oil monster sweating and dripping into his already fogged-up glasses. talk about off-season winnings and pay days. shit. he's hoping for another dimension where the women look like troy polomolo and the men look like troy polomolo. (SP? who gives a shit).

@ballpeen said:

I agree, the odds it happens aren't good, but riddle me this: How many of those guys get it right very often after the first few picks???

Kieper is as good as any......you included. The difference is he figured a way to position himself where he can predict what is going to happen on ESPN and get paid handsomely to do so in front of millions of viewers, readers, and listeners while people like you and I are relegated to posting to maybe a few hundred message board viewers.

I will say Stan is pretty cheap....he only paid me $200 last year to express my views.

There is no doubt he knows more about the draft class than us, but we know more about the Browns than he does. There is no way Mangini wants another WR diva on this roster. Especially at the #7 spot. Not to mention, we have many other needs on this team. Dez Bryant is dropping like a Braylon TD, and we should see significant progress out of MoMass this year and hopefully Robiskie. Don't forget, they're not rookies anymore. If we were to bring in a 3rd or 4th round WR we would be in much better shape with Stuckey, MoMass, and Robo already one year in the system. No need to burn a #7 or even a #20 on Dez Bryant.

Give me Eric Berry or give me a #20 and another 2nd rounder. Earl Thomas, Kyle Wilson, somebody will still be there.

@miktoxic said:

I agree to that, but that duckbill is classic.

@mopaji said:

Sorry Mo....it isn't out of the question.

I agree, the odds it happens aren't good, but riddle me this: How many of those guys get it right very often after the first few picks???

Kieper is as good as any......you included. The difference is he figured a way to position himself where he can predict what is going to happen on ESPN and get paid handsomely to do so in front of millions of viewers, readers, and listeners while people like you and I are relegated to posting to maybe a few hundred message board viewers.

I will say Stan is pretty cheap....he only paid me $200 last year to express my views.

@the-gipper said:

I agree.

It may not be what I want, but there is no questioning the talent, and we do need help at the position.

I don't think it out of the question by any means.

@browns57 said:

Well thats interesting! I think we need to go with a safety or corner, but I would not be upset by the selection of Bryant. Especially after reviewing that list of our best receivers. It has been forever since we have had a great one. I also like they selection of McCoy.

nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

ooooooooooo

we need experiance at wr not another rookie

Rorbotron said:

Kiper suggests us taking McCoy with our second round pick not our first.

"Kipers on crack!"

@choco said:

The more I've read about Bryant in various mocks/pro day stuff he's falling down in to the 20's. If I'm a Browns fan I sure as hell wouldn't want Bryant that early and McCoy at 7? Aren't most putting him outside the first round? I think the Stains would be Retarded to pass on a guy like Berry.