***************************

But the Saints, Colts and Patriots are out of the playoffs. Those are THE three top tier qbs..

And they have decent defenses, too. I know they can keep winning if you take away a piece, because they still

have most of the pieces in place.

And the Browns really beat the Pats (Brady) earlier in the year, and the Saints (Brees).

You take Wallace and Ward away from Bun rothlicksboogers, and the squeelers would have lost

to the ratbirds. Well, maybe, if the ratbirds hadn't given away those two big turnovers...

Seriously, look at the first four games that over-rated bun was suspended for:

1 ATL W 15-9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2 Sep 19 @ TEN W 19-11 - - - - - - - -

3 Sep 26 @ TAM W 38-13 - - - - - - - -

4 Oct 3 BAL L 14-17

The squeelers won with their BACKUP qb early on, at the beginning of the season. No bun, still won. GGG

It's a team game. With the pieces in place, another piece, even another qb, can step in and win.

@brownindian said:

We dont have a cart or a horse.

Right, well, in New Orleans they have all three, a QB, a cart, and a horse:

PIT (1)

GB (2)

CHI (4)

NYJ (6)

QBR:

GB (3)

PIT (5)

CHI (16)

NYJ (27)

The top 2 scoring defenses are still alive, every team in the playoffs is a top 10 Scoring Defense, and as you can see we have some bottom feeding QBR teams still alive and well.

QBR is the most important factor for success? Doesn't seem logical, does it?

It is not a result of anything but stopping the team from scoring.

Now QBR on the other hand is just the opposite. It is a complicated compilation of a bunch of different statistics, including YPA, Sacks, INTS, and if the guy got laid the night before.

I know what you tried to do right there, but no dude. No.

If a team scores a lot and doesn't let the other team score much... that's just called winning.

@hoss said:

12 playoff teams and their ranking in QBR:

NE1

GB 3

PHI 4

PIT 5

BAL 7

KC 8

IND 9

ATL 11

NO 12

CHI 16

JETS 27

SEA 28

12 Playoffs teams and their ranking in Scoring DEF:

Pitt 1

GB 2

BAL 3

CHI 4

ATL 5

JETS 6

NO 7

NE 8

KC 11

PHI 21

IND 23

SEA 25

I see more of the bottom feeders in QBR still alive, and more of the bottom feeders in Scoring DEF home right now. 3 of the top 10 teams in QBR are out now and they happen to have lower DEF rankings. Just keeping a running tally.

@shepwrite said:

Five teams rank in the bottom half of pass yardage: Seattle, Baltimore, NYJ, Chicago, and Kansas City. I personally expect to see Seattle, the Jets, and KC out after round one. Baltimore will beat KC... not sure who Chicago plays.

Indy, New Orleans, and Green Bay rank 1-3-5. They were three of the worst rushing teams. Interesting to watch how that plays out.

Otherwise, you have these "top half" teams...

9 - Phil

11 - NE

14 - Pitt

15 - ATL

DEFENSE baby. DEFENSE!

NE1

GB 3

PHI 4

PIT 5

BAL 7

KC 8

IND 9

ATL 11

NO 12

CHI 16

JETS 27

SEA 28

12 Playoffs teams and their ranking in Scoring DEF:

Pitt 1

GB 2

BAL 3

CHI 4

ATL 5

JETS 6

NO 7

NE 8

KC 11

PHI 21

IND 23

SEA 25

I see more of the bottom feeders in QBR still alive, and more of the bottom feeders in Scoring DEF home right now. 3 of the top 10 teams in QBR are out now and they happen to have lower DEF rankings. Just keeping a running tally.

Five teams rank in the bottom half of pass yardage: Seattle, Baltimore, NYJ, Chicago, and Kansas City. I personally expect to see Seattle, the Jets, and KC out after round one. Baltimore will beat KC... not sure who Chicago plays.

Indy, New Orleans, and Green Bay rank 1-3-5. They were three of the worst rushing teams. Interesting to watch how that plays out.

Otherwise, you have these "top half" teams...

9 - Phil

11 - NE

14 - Pitt

15 - ATL

1 - KC

4 - Jets

5 - Phil

11 - Pitt

12 - Atl

14 - Balt

22 - Chicago

24 - Green Bay

28 - New Orleans

29 - Indy

31 - Seattle

Each of the last two years, the team ranked 32nd in rushing made the Super Bowl. You've got some pretty serious contenders ranked 24, 28, and 29 this year.

On the whole, that list tells you running for a lot of yards has absolutely no correlation with making the playoffs. It's all over the board.

QBR, on the other hand...

@vdogrowz said:

Talk about reducing it to the cold, hard truth.

There was a terrific article that quoted a lot of GMs and Gruden quite a bit, pointing out the simple fact that high-level play and stability at QB is the common thread of the winningest teams of the past decade. Almost all of the sources felt the QB affected the team around him more than vice-versa, citing Manning, Brady, Brees, and Favre/Rodgers being able to win with a revolving door at WR and RB. Not very often do the top teams feature the highest-paid and most decorated OL, either.

The best LT of the last 30 years is probably Munoz... and he never won a Super Bowl. Best TE? Gonzales. No rings. CB? Revis. Nothing yet. You really want your best player to be your QB. It's tough to machinate that... but it's the ideal. You want your money on the position with the most influence on the bottom line and nothing else comes close. Generally, you go to left tackle and pass rusher next. Then #1 WR and lockdown corner, although the latter has been hamstrung by rules quite a bit. Oakland's had the second best in the league for five years now... and it hasn't won them anything.

Caleb said:

New Orleans was right up there last year, for sure. Same with Manning's Colts. This year's favorite (Patriots) are very high on the list.

It's amazing how many of the top teams the last few years aren't very good at running the ball. In consecutive years, the team that finished DEAD LAST in rushing made it to the Super Bowl (Cards and Colts). This year's playoff teams feature a lot who don't run the ball very well (Patriots, Colts, Saints, Packers, and so on).

@hoss said:

INT for a TD

Defense and QBR are so neck and neck it is too close to call.

As I said, lets keep this great thread alive for the playoffs and see who makes it to the next level(s): QBR vs DEF

To be continued...........................

Great insight, Hoss. Stuff like this makes a board fun, digging into stats and shit. Baseball people are nuts for it. Riceloft used to bring in some amazing stuff. And good find on turnovers by Zombo. That's a compelling list.

Lovers of defense (hey, my son's a linebacker) will keep an eye on the Jets and Bears, because neither has a juggernaut offense. Cutler had a pretty damn good year and God knows he can light it up... and Sanchez keeps flickering that he'll be among the really good ones soon-ish... they aren't like teams led by Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Vick, etc.

Atlanta's very interesting because of how complete they are. None of the above has a running back like Michael Turner and Atlanta's defense is really, really good... and then there's Ryan-White-Gonzales. They can beat you in a lot of ways. They're "team complete."

First matchup out of the gate is one to watch for this conversation: Jets (great defense) versus Colts (passing is all they do well).

@calfoxwc said:

Except in the case of Brady who actually got better when they got rid of Randy Moss!

In Ben Rocklicksboogers case, take away his defense and wr's, and he's a bust.

Flacco was spoken of as a possible bust, and he had a good oline. But he only had one big time wr. Now he has two or three.

Bend Rothlicksbooger has maybe five solid wr's.

You get all the other pieces in place, and you need a very good or great qb to make it work.

But a great qb can't make gold out of wr's who suck, and an oline that can't block. It's a team game.

@shepwrite said:

Honestly, I didn't think you did. You were always too smart for that.

@shepwrite said:

Agreed. It is a passing league. But the Colts were in this game last year right up until the Saints did what?

INT for a TD

Defense and QBR are so neck and neck it is too close to call.

As I said, lets keep this great thread alive for the playoffs and see who makes it to the next level(s): QBR vs DEF

To be continued...........................

@hoss said:

I will say this though, teams with a good D and good rushing game, and so so QBR can make the playoffs and do every season. Typically they are manned by young QB's learning the ropes.

Teams like PIT, BAL, NYJ and NYG are all good examples of how a strong rushing game and top D can take you far. Not over the top to the Super Bowl every season, but nonetheless they can get you far and a Super Bowl ring.

Shit man, BAL, TB, NYG, and PIT all WON Super Bowls this way. Ideal? Popular? No. But possible.

Anyway QBR vs DEF is a wash.

I don't really disagree with that so much. What an offense does and what a defense does on any team is sort of separate paths with different coordinators, etc. There are trends in offense and trends in defense.

On offense, it's becoming a passing league. When 11 of the top 12 QBRs had winning records and 9 were in the playoffs (there are only 12), then that's pretty amazing.

The same just isn't true of the best running teams.

Now, comparing great passing teams to great defensive teams does get murkier because there's so much overlap. But I do know it's 9 of 12 top QBRs and 7 of 12 top overall defenses. And only TWO Top 12 defenses that weren't also Top 12 QBRs are in the playoffs (Bears and Jets).

I can think of some great passing teams with pretty poor defenses that have been really competitive lately (Colts, Cardinals, Saints sometimes, Texans in 2009, Chargers in 2009) but not many great defenses with poor passing games. The Jets last year, but they really should have been 7-9 except for a couple gifts. The year Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl, they also had a Pro Bowl passer... so that 2000 Ravens team is the only "modern" example of winning with just defense and an epic running game.

All that said... I don't really disagree that passing offense and overall defense are the two vital factors in today's NFL. Plenty of teams win with half-assed running games. Rushing the passer is getting HUGE, given the proclivity of passing offenses and the rules against covering them.

@shepwrite said:

Keep in mind that Elway, Favre, Warner, Brady, Manning, and Roethlisberger have basically won all the championships for a pretty damn long time. They were Pro Bowlers, MVPs, and it's probable they'll all be in the HOF.

But... defense is pretty damn huge. Some fairly bad to mediocre defenses have been in Super Bowls lately (Cardinals and Colts), and the Saints of last year weren't all that good... but most champions have great quarterbacks and at least really good defenses.

BTW, 7 of the top 12 defenses (total defense) made the playoffs. Not as high as QBR, and the average wins is quite a bit lower. And here's something really interesting: Only TWO Top 12 defenses that weren't also Top 12 in QBR made the playoffs (Bears, Jets).

That's not very many.

you are kind of right. only 8 of the top 12 passing teams are in the playoffs (if you go off of QBR). but why choose the top 12 passing offenses and total defenses to look at? why not stick with just 10? or better yet 5? I could still say only 3 playoff teams have a top 5 passing offense (again using QBR), while 4 playoff teams have a top 5 defense (total defense). Now defense looks more important..

All I'm saying is that people can use stats to fit whatever viewpoint they believe in... Bottom line, to win championships, you need a quarterback that won't turn the ball over, an established running game, and a great defense..

@shepwrite said:

Shep come one now, 9 of the top defenses made the playoffs also. Why are you making this about rushing vs passing, when you know the true measurement is QBR vs DEF, which is a more accurate and productive comparison?

I will say this though, teams with a good D and good rushing game, and so so QBR can make the playoffs and do every season. Typically they are manned by young QB's learning the ropes.

Teams like PIT, BAL, NYJ and NYG are all good examples of how a strong rushing game and top D can take you far. Not over the top to the Super Bowl every season, but nonetheless they can get you far and a Super Bowl ring.

Shit man, BAL, TB, NYG, and PIT all WON Super Bowls this way. Ideal? Popular? No. But possible.

Anyway QBR vs DEF is a wash.

@bringbackbrownie2 said:

I have this debate with Shep every season, and it never seems to come to a conclusion. He starts this thread year in and year out, but he never wants to admit that defense is just as important to postseason success as offense.

Of the top 15 QBR teams, 6 did not make the playoffs. They are:

2. SD

4. TB

8. HOU

12. DAL

14. DEN

15. NYG

Now how did these teams do on Defense?

1. SD

7. NYG

17. TB

23. DAL

30. HOU

32. DEN

Okay, so of the top 15 defenses, 6 did not make the playoffs. They are:

1. SD

6. MIA

8. MIN

11. OAK

13. SF

15. CIN

How did these teams do in QBR?

2. SD

18. CIN

21. SF

23. OAK

28. MIA

30. MIN

So what can we conclude with these numbers?

There are teams ranked high in QBR and low in defense that are out of the playoffs, and there are teams with high defense and low QBR not in the playoffs.

One cannot say that QBR is more important, and you cannot say defense is more important. The rankings don't follow this logic.

BUT...............

Keep this thread alive throughout the playoffs and watch the top QBR's drop faster than the top D's.

To be continued......................

@clevelandmilidh said:

Not really. Not when 9 of the top 12 passing teams are in the playoffs and two others had winning records. You can basically say that if you're in the top 12 in QBR, you're going to the playoffs. Missing at 10-6 is really rare.

Keep in mind that Elway, Favre, Warner, Brady, Manning, and Roethlisberger have basically won all the championships for a pretty damn long time. They were Pro Bowlers, MVPs, and it's probable they'll all be in the HOF.

But... defense is pretty damn huge. Some fairly bad to mediocre defenses have been in Super Bowls lately (Cardinals and Colts), and the Saints of last year weren't all that good... but most champions have great quarterbacks and at least really good defenses.

BTW, 7 of the top 12 defenses (total defense) made the playoffs. Not as high as QBR, and the average wins is quite a bit lower. And here's something really interesting: Only TWO Top 12 defenses that weren't also Top 12 in QBR made the playoffs (Bears, Jets).

That's not very many.