Their consensus pretty closely matched mine. They said the 5 teams that would be out would probably be:

Seahawks

Bears

Saints

Chiefs

and....the Ravens, who I did not have out. But they seemed to think the Ravens age on defense will catch up to them this year.(I still think the Steelers have a better chance of losing out than the Ravens...just based on Super Loser Hangover History)

They also thought the Colts had a good chance of staying home for the same reason I said: concerns about Peyton Manning's health. In fact, I said the Colts would stay home while the Steelers get in as a WC.

@the-gipper said:

It may be a little early to play this game, but nevertheless, here is the question:

For 14 consecutive years, of the 12 playoff team in one year at least 5 of those teams failed to make the playoffs the following year. The question is: Which 5 teams from the 2010 playoffs will fail to make the 2011 playoffs. Here are last years teams:

NFC: Seattle, New Orleans, Packers, Eagles, Falcons, Bears

AFC: Jets, Colts, Ravens, Chiefs, Steelers, Patriots

The followup question of course then will be: which teams will replace the minimum of 5 that don't make it?

Yes, it's hard to predict now, but I'd say the Ratbirds, Seahawks, & Chiefs are most "at risk" of missing the playoffs. I don't see a big turnover of playoff teams this year.

The teams to replace the Ratbirds, Seahawks, & Chiefs....how about the Chargers, Cardinals, & Browns (please!!!!!)If not the Browns, I could see a team like Jacksonville going 9-7 or 10-6, their "D" isn't too bad, and they have Jones-Drew.

The Texas teams, Dallas & Houston, will under achieve yet again.

Seattle. And easy choice since they were 7-9 last year.

Bears. Their division has improved greatly.

Saints. Not that they have fallen off much, its just that the Falcons and Bucs have improved

Colts. If Manning isn't healthy this team falls to the ditch. Even if he is, its tough

Steelers. Going purely on history. They haven't made the playoffs after winning their last two SBs, so much as losing one.

Chiefs. Chargers I think retake control of this division

Probably replacements: Bucs replace Saints. Cardinals or Rams replace Seahawks in NFC West. Texans finally break through with AFC South title. Chargers replace Chiefs. Lions replace Bears, oh my. I'll leave the Steelers in because, other than the Colts I don't see who else could challenge them for a wild card spot. (can we agree that the Dolphins, Bills, Bengals, Browns, Titans, Jags, Broncos, and Raiders are unlikely playoff teams?) Thus my playoff teams are:

AFC: Pats, Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Chargers

NFC: Eagles, Packers, Falcons, Bucs, Cards, Lions

Bengals

Chargers

Cowboys

Cardinals

Vikings

These 5 were replaced by:

Steelers

Chiefs

Falcons

Bears

Seahawks

I think I'm in the small minority of people who think Vick is either going to get hurt/figured out this year. Not to mention, Maclin is fairly hurt right now and Jackson is serious about his holdout. Combine that with the fact they play in arguably the toughest division in the NFC, it's not a cakewalk for the playoffs like a lot of people think right now.