How high should rookie Trent Richardson be drafted in fantasy leagues?

Shortly after the Cleveland Browns drafted Trent Richardson with the third overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft, Jim Brown was quoted as saying he thought the running back was "ordinary" and that he saw nothing outstanding about him.

While you don't have to agree with the Hall of Fame legend's assessment, you would do well to understand well before you select Richardson in your fantasy football draft that the odds of the rookie doing something extraordinary are not that great.

Deciding to hang your hat on a newcomer to the NFL -- even one who rushed for 1,679 yards and scored 24 total touchdowns in his final season at Alabama -- is an incredible risk. Why? Because in order to be considered worthy of being a top-10 running back selection you need to be counted on for about 80 yards per game and a touchdown approximately every other game.

Over the past several seasons, you can see that's pretty much where the bar has been residing:

RBs to average 80 or more yards rushing per game

Minimum 10 games played, Since 2005

2011: 9

2010: 7

2009: 9

2008: 9

2007: 10

2006: 11

2005: 11

But regardless of how good Richardson might be, it is a pretty rare occurrence for a rookie running back to reach this plateau. Since 1995, only 14 rookies have managed to accomplish the feat, and not a one has pulled it off in any of the past three seasons. That group of "slow starters" includes a bevy of backs taken in the first round, such as Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Beanie Wells, C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best and Richardson's former Crimson Tide teammate, Mark Ingram.

Player

Team

Games

Rush Yds

TD

YPG

Chris Johnson

2008 TEN

15

1,228

9

81.9

Steve Slaton

2008 HOU

16

1,282

9

80.1

Marshawn Lynch

2007 BUF

13

1,115

7

85.8

Adrian Peterson

2007 MIN

14

1,341

12

95.8

Cadillac Williams

2005 TB

14

1,178

6

84.1

Clinton Portis

2002 DEN

16

1,508

15

94.3

Anthony Thomas

2001 CHI

14

1,183

7

84.5

Mike Anderson

2000 DEN

16

1,487

15

92.9

Jamal Lewis

2000 BAL

16

1,364

6

85.3

Edgerrin James

1999 IND

16

1,553

13

97.1

Olandis Gary

1999 DEN

12

1,159

7

96.9

Fred Taylor

1998 JAC

15

1,223

14

81.5

Eddie George

1996 HOU

16

1,368

8

85.5

Curtis Martin

1995 NE

16

1,487

14

92.9

Now let's throw another monkey wrench into the mix: Rookie Brandon Weeden is likely to start the majority of games at quarterback for the Browns. So while there likely isn't much in the way of competition for Richardson to get most of the carries with leftover parts such as Montario Hardesty, Brandon Jackson and Chris Ogbonnaya as his only rivals for the rock, there's also not a lot of experience in that huddle.

Mistakes are bound to be made.

Traditionally, Cleveland hasn't exactly been the birthplace of breakout backs. Before Jamal Lewis met our "80-10" benchmark in 2007 (in his eighth year in the league, mind you), you have to go back all the way to Mike Pruitt in 1979 to find another Browns runner to reach that goal. Even with the team's three-year "hiatus" in the 1990s, that's not exactly a stellar track record.

Now nobody is saying that Richardson is going to be a complete bust, and certainly with Brad Childress as the team's new offensive coordinator -- the same man who coached Adrian Peterson when he broke on the scene in 2007 -- there's reason for optimism. Richardson should not only get a ton of handoffs, but will almost certainly be worked into the passing mix as well. He'll be in there on nearly every down.

That said, playing in a division with three of the returning top-10 defenses against the run certainly makes the margin for error a lot smaller than had Richardson been drafted elsewhere. The Cleveland offensive line has just two members with more than three years of NFL experience (Alex Mack and Joe Thomas) and supplemental draft pick Josh Gordon may not be completely ready to step into the wide receiver mix out of the gate.

In short, the Cleveland Browns are looking awfully green on offense, which makes me quite yellow when it comes to selecting Richardson any higher than the No. 15-17 running back off the board. Unless you're in a keeper league in which, much like Cleveland, you're already planning ahead for the future, you really can't afford to pick him any sooner.

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Yeah, this is an article essentially for fantasy buffs and whatnots, but, I found this interesting from a stats perspective...

I think that counting on Richardson for a TD EVERY OTHER GAME- is just setting your expectations just a tad bit low for the best Runningback to arrive on the scene in a long time. This guy is the exact type of runner you would build if you were building a franchise runningback. The guys is a shoe-in to be the NEXT BIG THING- AND IT'S KIND OF A BIG DEAL! I would safely bet that you can count on him to put up ATLEAST 1 TD PER GAME! I would also add in three to six games where he goes for atleast 2... Thats 22 TDS... I would think, and BET that he goes Beast MODE atleast once and gets an eye bulging 4 TDs in a single game! Mark Richardson down for 25+ TDs.

It's kind of funny but since we took WEEDEN in the first round as well it's kinda shadowed Richardson thus far. A lot of the controversy has been on the QB(as it always is in Cleveland) and what will be done with Colt. Since Richardson is written in as the starter in INK from day 1 on, he has been, dare I say it- looked past. And 'Oh boy', that's one runningback that you SURELY DON'T WANT TO "LOOK PAST"! But honestly Browns Fans, I actually like it. It's given us some much more that the Defense has to prepare for: An upgraded Offensive Line, a new look QB(Whether it's Weeden or McCoy is moot, as I feel both will be outstanding with this offense surrounding them), A "Moss-Like" Supplemental draft pick, a promising young TE in Jordan Cameron and then our franchise BELL-COW! Wow, like I said Yo, SHOCK AND AWE!

@king-ghoolie-lives said:

VEGAS? Dude, guys like me are a LOT SHARPER than most GMS and Vegas experts. The only reason the Vegas guys make so much money is that they take bets from de-evolved pig fuckers like you.

Says the man who calls himself Big and Bad on an internet forum.

@miktoxic said:

yeah that's why we are all GMs and our prognostication percentages are off the charts. fuck vegas! oh yeah? really? why aren't all you sideline gurus and karnacs there now winning millions?

exactly.

yeah TR is a beast and he'll have a good year. but i betcha he's never taken a pounding like he will against our division rivals, SEC or not.

just hope he can last 3 years while the rest of the team catches up with him.

Yea I hope we spell TR with Hardesty and Jackson, maybe Ogbonnayya for the next couple of years so he still has plenty of tread on the tires when we will be competing for the playoffs (hopefully..)

@brother-disco said:

was looking around the internet at articles about clevelands new chosen one, and i found this http://lastwordonsports.com/2012/07/04/trentrichardsonchosenone/ after reading i found it interesting that richardson has the right attitude and didnt fire back against jim brown... what do you think?

Why does shitty internet writers come on here and pretend that they are normal posters only to pedal their crappy articles? At least try to be honest about it, not "Oh I totally just found this fantastic article about xxxx, maybe you guys should check it out!" If I wanted the opinion of some dipshit working as a writer for some crappy $.10 for a dozen sports site just so he can gain enough experience to get an unpaid internship at some low level backwoods honky tonk news paper then I would read your article. But I prefer to read articles from professional journalist and competent analysts so I won't waste my time.

@sisky-fringo said:

alright! thanks [OG Vets]!!

and happy gregorian 4th of July to all and any!!

may your fireworks be loud, your spirits bright, and your celebrations extra arrogant!!

and Happy Birthday US of A!!!

p.s. Dear Earth, sorry about all the firework pollution in the air, lakes, and rivers tonight. hope u can get over it.

Hippy

@sisky-fringo said:

alright! thanks [OG Vets]!!

and happy gregorian 4th of July to all and any!!

may your fireworks be loud, your spirits bright, and your celebrations extra arrogant!!

and Happy Birthday US of A!!!

p.s. Dear Earth, sorry about all the firework pollution in the air, lakes, and rivers tonight. hope u can get over it.

man. i love that avatar! :lol:

and happy gregorian 4th of July to all and any!!

may your fireworks be loud, your spirits bright, and your celebrations extra arrogant!!

and Happy Birthday US of A!!!

p.s. Dear Earth, sorry about all the firework pollution in the air, lakes, and rivers tonight. hope u can get over it.

HAPPY 4TH TO EVERYONE! DON'T LET 'REVISIONIST' HISTORY STAND IN THE WAY OF THANKING THOSE WHO FOUGHT FOR YOUR INDEPENDENCE.

@miktoxic said:

yeah that's why we are all GMs and our prognostication percentages are off the charts. fuck vegas! oh yeah? really? why aren't all you sideline gurus and karnacs there now winning millions?

exactly.

yeah TR is a beast and he'll have a good year. but i betcha he's never taken a pounding like he will against our division rivals, SEC or not.

just hope he can last 3 years while the rest of the team catches up with him.

No doubt about that Mik. No way of predicting what will happen. RB's have a shorter career because of the pounding they take. Let's hope for the best and expect the worst.

exactly.

yeah TR is a beast and he'll have a good year. but i betcha he's never taken a pounding like he will against our division rivals, SEC or not.

just hope he can last 3 years while the rest of the team catches up with him.

*************************************************

The addition of SWARTZ will give the entire offense and coaches some breathing room.

@king-ghoolie-lives said:

G-man,

there is no "IF' and "Hope" involved in this issue. This guy has skills that are off the board. If he would have been available to draft in 1960, Jim Brown would have been traded.

Ordinary? Yea......... he is your ordinary superman.

You just wait until the neandrethal toothless Steeler fucks line up 9 in the box. While cocksucker Pull-on-my-load is flying through the air over the line of scrimmage, Richardson will be 5 steps into the secondary saying bye bye.

The addition of Richardson and Weeden will allow EVERYONE some breathing room.

Don't be surprised to se a 2,000 yard rookie season out of this guy.

Seriously, Cinci? twice? That vould be 600 yards in two games.

Go Browns! Fuck everyone else.

Well done sir...

@poeticg said:

What!?! Are you freaking kidding me??? Just watch the tape. Every run is run like it's his last. When was the last time you've seen a guy like that? The determination. The drive. This guy is running from the Hood, with his family in tow. He's fighting for something extra special out there. He's not a tip-toer, he's not a diva, he's going to work every single play. He's the Mother Fucking Soldier that Kellen Winslow wished he could be... and I loved Winslow. Watch and be amazed at the yards he'll gain. Watch as the fire that he plays with rubs off on the rest of the Offense. Watch as the OLine levels up and the way the receivers step up to pull their weight. He's the catalsyt. Brownie Nation is DAWNING as the Steelers sun sets. Don't worry, be happy bro.

The way you talk about this guy, it sounds like you wish he'd rub off on you.

i guess i'm mostly excited about his hands. hopefully we have a coach and OC that will dial up some plays to hit him through the air early and often, along with hopefully having a QB in place that can hit him in stride coming out of the backfield. there hasn't been a back used like Byner was in CLE since...Byner, and it's been sorely missed. it was effective--i have no idea why no other coach has employed it (!).

not enough gleam i suppose.

it would also be nice to have a decent Kevin Mack to accompany him. Hardesty, Ogbonnaya, Jacobs? they can't replace a fullback. 8 games a year are in Cleveland and your money's on smelley, marecic??? good f'n grief.

wth was that Heckert? Vickers was entering his prime and FB's last forever. can't manage homeys or what??

due to this, Tr3nt will probably go as Pinkston, Lauvao, and Schwartz go. JP and SL got some valuable Sunday exp 16X last season--as both were essentially rookies it will pay huge dividends going into year 2. once their technique gets tightened up their size will also help shore up both sides, especially the left with JP being fairly larger than Steiny was. besides, Joe T may be an elite pass blocker but his run blocking could use some work. regardless, he and Mack CAN both pull like mofo's and truck ANY LB in the league/put DE's on their asses. on paper they've finally got something to work with.

things are looking up.

just sayin.....

They don't know Cleveland, they don't know the Browns. They don't know we hounds and what's worse- They say we're cursed. They. They as in Them. Who are they, Exactly? They are past tense, they are the shadows that the light of Cleveland will disperse. Passion. They think they know Passion. Cleveland will rumble like the legs of our opposition will tremble. Loyalty? They will understand very soon. A Pendulum. The pendulum swings both ways and it's finally arrived. It's our time. Do you feel it? I feel it, I'm seeing a gleam. Surprise. They think they know surprise but they don't understand Shock and Awe.

We trained, we learned how to prepare, then how to work and compete. Wash, rinse repeat. Then we learned how to win. This is the phase where consistency steps in. We learn how to Win consistently. From the ashes, from the Turmoil, from the pain of disappointment we'll be resurected. All the nonsense deflected we will be a mountain that cannot be gained. A lion untamed. Our memory unchanged and we'll remember their names. Strained against chains and blinded by fates cruel ways. Screaming rages brought on by unbelievable ways to lose games... shits got to change...

...And now it HAS. Be ready. Be ready for the most amazing season witnessed in 20 years. Believe. Back Brownie, hold steady. Get ready.

When this monster puts on the Orange and Brown and the bullets get real, anyone who gets in our path is going to need a strecher. Playoffs? Playoffs! You're damn right I said it- The Fucking Playoffs!

...Get ready... The Browns are back...

@cambridgeho said:

What type if science will it take for these guys to sign already?

Luck and RGIII signing their contracts.