@vagitron said:

Well, I saw most of the games Mingo and J. Jones played in last year. My view: Mingo will have the better pro career. Jones was invisible in a number of games for Georgia and seemed to be blocked easier, in my view, than Mingo.

@vagitron said:

That's the funny thing about talent in the NFL, you never can tell. I agree that it seems that Mingo, Ansah, Dion Jordan maybe a couple of others all seem to be highly similar players, yet it is inevitable that some one or two of them will bust and others thrive....yet by all outward objective appearances they should be very similar.

It may have to do with the system....it may have to do with a players heart.

God only knows sometimes.

I saw a replay of "The Brady Six"...about the guys that were drafted before Brady in his year (he was #199). A guy like Giovanni Carmozzo....or Spergon Wynn.....both about same height/weight etc. etc. as Brady. But Brady had the magic and they didn't.

And look at the 2009 list above. Why are Clay Matthews and Brian Orakpo good, yet similar players like Aaron Maybin and Jerry Peria not?

Obviously even professional scouts can't get these things right more than 50% of the time apparently.

@the-gipper said:

OK, sure, of course this is a foolish exercise at this point....but what some people lose sight of is that this forum is here for the participants to have fun. NO ONE patronizing this board gets paid by an NFL team to do anything....so have a little fun.

Here is the list of first round picks in the NFL draft just concluded.

Pick whom you think will be the major busts of this draft round....and who will likely end up an All Pro ...perennial Pro Bowler:

1. Kansas City: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan solid

2. Jacksonville: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M pro bowler

3. Miami: Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon solid

4. Philadelphia: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma bust

5. Detroit: Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU huge question mark. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. One time pro bowler.

6. Cleveland: Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU solid to pro bowler

7. Arizona: Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina pro bowler

8. St. Louis: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia bust

9. New York Jets: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama could be a pro bowler but injuries hinder his career.

10. Tennessee: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama pro bowler

11. San Diego: D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama bust

12. Oakland: D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston solid

13. New York Jets: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri bust

14. Carolina: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

15. New Orleans: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas solid

16. Buffalo: E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida State bust

17. Pittsburgh: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia pro bowler

18. San Francisco: Eric Reid, S, LSU solid

19. New York Giants: Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse bust

20. Chicago: Kyle Long, OG, Oregon solid

21. Cincinnati: Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame solid

22. Atlanta: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington solid

23. Minnesota: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida bust

24. Indianapolis: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State bust

25. Minnesota: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State bust

26. Green Bay: Datone Jones, DE, UCLA bust

27. Houston: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson solid

28. Denver: Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina solid

29. Minnesota: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee solid

30. St. Louis: Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia bust because of off field issues

31. Dallas: Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin bust

32. Baltimore: Matt Elam, S, Florida solid

@vagitron said:

Thats why this thread is laughable...nothing but wishful thinking.

@vagitron said:

Disagree. I think instincts are important in football and Mingo, in my judgment, has better instincts than Ansah who will learn some as he grows in experience, but I think Mingo is just really smart and really quick. Not sayng he'll be a star, but the potential is there. We'll see how it plays out.

BTW, I saw at least some of EVERY Georgia football last season and saw Jarvis Jones play live against Florida. For my money, Alec Ogletree was the best overall LB at Georgia last season, not Jones, and despite his overinflated sacks total which makes everyone go wow. What I saw was Jones getting shoved around the field on a lot of plays. My opinion. I'll also tell you that the Browns made a big mistake not taking S Rambo over Slaughter.

@hoorta said:

I saw enough of Jones in college to recognize how inconsistent he is as a player and how difficult it will be for himto shed blocks in the NFL. I think Mingo will work harder than Jones to get better and will eventually be abetter player than Jones.

@the-gipper said:

Tavon Austin is going to light up the NFL. He would have taken the Browns offense to a higher level it hasn't seen since 1987. Lack of vision and smart by the new but same old management group.

@vagitron said:

Jones has a high\risk reward factor. IF he can stay healthy- the Steelers got a steal. (pun intended) OL drafted high rarely bust. OK, you have a roided up Tony Mandarich, and underachiever Robert Gallery, but for every one of those, you have perennial pro bowlers like our Joe Thomas, Orlando Pace, Tony Boselli, Jon Ogden, and the list goes on.

Personally- I think Manuel has the highest bust potential, and Chance Warmack will see 5-10 pro bowls before he hangs 'em up.

& give Mangini credit for passing on Sanchez.

AllPro: Mingo, Hayden, Lotulelei, Reid, Williams

Skeptical2013 said:

Actually, I think Austin is one of the players with a high bust potential.....nothing specific, just a hunch.

QBs are a risk....and with Emanuel it will take at least 3-4 years I believe to judge him.

I do think the DEs/LBs...Ansah, Mingo, Jordan, J.Jones, Werner, D.Jones, Richardson, Floyd, Lotuleile, Williams

Half of them will be underachievers. Lets just hope our boy is not in that half.

@the-gipper said:

BUSTS: Ansah, Richardson, Manuel, Jarvis Jones, C. Patterson.

STARS: T. Austin, D. Jones, Vaccaro, Ogletree, Floyd, Reid, and a bunch of the OLs.

A year or two from now we may be talking about how the Browns should have drafted Tavon Austin instead of Mingo. I don't think Mingo will be a bust, though. The athletic ability and speed are all there. How much strength he adds and the quality of coaching he gets in learning how to take on and shed blockers will determine his degree of success in the NFL.

They get more credit and take more blame then deservedly depending on how the team does.

More often than not a team the draft a quarterback very high is a pretty bad team so likely to remain bad.

WSS

Clay Matthews 46 pts.

Percy Harvin 39

Josh Freeman 35

Matt Stafford 33

Hakeem Nicks 32

However, if you look at what players have made the All Pro teams and Pro Bowls, a different story come about. You have the following Pro Bowlers:

Clay Matthews 4 PBs

Brian Orakpo 2 PBs

BJ Raji 1

Alex Mack 1

Brian Cushing 1

Percy Harvin 1

(Stafford/Freeman/Nicks none have ever made a single Pro Bowl)

The players with the lowest CA...or least productive careers...per that statistic are:

LB Larry English 5

DE Aaron Maybin 6

OT Jason Smith 7

DT Jerry Peria 10

DE Robert Ayers 13

Notice a trend: 4 of the 5 "biggest busts" from 4 years ago were defensive players....including LBs and DEs. So, it seems that the DL has the highest bust rate.

That can certainly be said to be true in recent Browns history with underachievers like Courtney Brown/Gerard Warren/Kameron Wimbley taken in the first round.

2 STL Jason Smith T 23 2012 0 0 1 7 7 31

3 Baylor 1 3 KAN Tyson Jackson DE 23 2012 0 0 3 21 21 59 113 5.0 LSU 1

4 SEA Aaron Curry LB 23 2012 0 0 3 24 13 48 190 5.5 Wake Forest 1

5 NYJ Mark Sanchez QB 22 2012 0 0 4 27 27 62 1028 1867 12092 68 69 125 342 12 3 USC 1

6 CIN Andre Smith T 22 2012 0 0 2 15 15 43 4 Alabama 1

7 OAK Darrius Heyward-Bey WR 22 2012 0 0 4 16 16 56 8 83 0 140 2071 11 4 Maryland 1

8 JAX Eugene Monroe T 22 2012 0 0 4 22 22 61 Virginia 1

9 GNB B.J. Raji DT 23 2012 0 1 3 23 23 60 1 1 1 78 10.5 Boston Col. 1

10 SFO Michael Crabtree WR 22 2012 0 0 4 29 29 58 2 14 0 260 3345 21 6 Texas Tech 1

11 BUF Aaron Maybin DE 21 2012 0 0 0 6 3 47 25 6.0 Penn St. 1

12 DEN Knowshon Moreno RB 22 2012 0 0 2 20 20 44 605 2430 16 97 853 6 2 Georgia 1

13 WAS Brian Orakpo LB 23 2012 0 2 3 25 25 49 114 29.5 Texas 1

14 NOR Malcolm Jenkins DB 21 2012 0 0 3 24 24 57 228 4 2.0 Ohio St. 1

15 HOU Brian Cushing LB 22 2012 0 1 3 31 31 49 242 7 9.5 USC 1

16 SDG Larry English LB 23 2012 0 0 0 5 5 43 42 8.5 Northern Illinois 1

17 TAM Josh Freeman QB 21 2012 0 0 4 35 35 57 1101 1873 12963 78 63 192 902 4 6 Kansas St. 1 18 DEN Robert Ayers DE 24 2012 0 0 2 13 13 57 79 6.5 Tennessee 1

19 PHI Jeremy Maclin WR 21 2012 0 0 4 27 27 59 6 30 0 258 3453 26 6 Missouri 1

20 DET Brandon Pettigrew TE 24 2012 0 0 4 25 25 57 243 2412 14 5 Oklahoma St. 1

21 CLE Alex Mack C 23 2012 0 1 4 21 21 64 6 California 1

22 MIN Percy Harvin WR 21 2012 0 1 3 39 39 54 107 683 4 280 3302 20 5 Florida 1

23 BAL Michael Oher T 23 2012 0 0 4 27 27 64 1 -8 0 Mississippi 1

24 ATL Peria Jerry DT 25 2012 0 0 1 10 10 48 26 2.0 Mississippi 1

25 MIA Vontae Davis DB 21 2012 0 0 3 20 16 54 173 12 2.0 Illinois 1

26 GNB Clay Matthews LB 23 2012 1 4 4 46 46 58 163 4 42.5 USC 1

27 IND Donald Brown RB 22 2012 0 0 1 16 16 50 449 1840 11 56 553 0 3 Connecticut 1

28 BUF Eric Wood C 23 2012 0 0 4 17 17 47 Louisville 1

29 NYG Hakeem Nicks WR 21 2012 0 0 3 32 32 55 2 8 0 255 3726 27 7 North Carolina 1

30 TEN Kenny Britt WR 21 2012 0 0 2 20 20 45 146 2354 19 3 Rutgers 1

31 ARI Chris Wells RB 21 2012 0 0 1 14 14 51 625 2471 24 28 293 0 3 Ohio St. 1

32 PIT Evander Hood DE 22 2012 0 0 2 24 24 64 68 8.5 Missouri

Look back 4 years.....who were the busts and bangs from this draft?

@the-gipper said: