If he and Carmona each return to form, the Indians will be a major player.

@cimo. said:

From a great site if some of you still aren't reading it.

http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com/

From Let's Go Tribe Website One of my usual sunday stops

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Lazy Sunday Hitting All the Bases

Creeping closer to Spring Training as the snow continues to fall on the North Coast (with a wonderful sheet of ice under the newest layer of white fluff), let’s warm our bones by rolling right into a Lazy one:

Terry Pluto has a column that focuses on how two key players for 2009, Fausto (and is that picture to the right still the greatest thing you’ve ever seen, if only for the memories) and Hafner, may be on the road to recovering their past success. He reports that the Indians have found a “small flaw in Carmona’s delivery” which will hopefully improve the command that left him in 2008. Though some could spend thousands of words on the rotation (overly verbose, me?), I think it goes without saying that Carmona could be the key to the Indians’ 2009 season as Lee is assumed to be a solid pillar in the rotation (even if his 2008 Cy Young-worthy campaign is not replicated) and questions abound for starters #3 to #5 as the Indians will try to recognize and utilize the pitchers that best fill those spots earlier rather than later (not that you asked, but I see Laffey, Reyes, and Huff as the three pitchers who fill out the rotation for the bulk of the season) in 2009.

But the wild card remains Carmona as an effective Carmona gives the Indians two potential aces to head the rotation and, while it’s not exactly “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain” because the candidates for the back-end aren’t exactly slouches, it puts less pressure on the back-end-of-the-rotation guys to perform at a level higher than perhaps what they’re capable of at this point in their careers. On the flip side, a Carmona who continues to struggle with command and spends the season correcting whatever mechanical flaw has invaded his delivery means that the serious question marks in the rotation start right behind Lee.

As for the other player of note that Pluto addresses in terms of bounce back seasons, he asserts that the Indians, when talking about Carlos Quentin as a possible trade target last off-season, said that Quentin’s numbers would improve in 2008 wherever he played because of the shoulder surgery that he had after the 2007 season. Why is this relevant? Because, according to the Indians, it’s similar to the shoulder surgery that Hafner went through a few months back and in case you forgot how Quentin burst onto the AL after a couple of lousy years in Arizona when he didn’t have a lot of power (where have I seen that recently), he was the leader in MVP field when he decided to punch a bat.

As a quick aside here, Pluto points out later in his piece how the Browns are missing the boat by not making any of their new employees available to the media and by starving their fans, hungry for any morsel of information about the Browns. In comparison, after reading the “information” that came out of the Indians’ Winter Press Tour, does anyone else think that the Indians are pretty aware that putting something (ANYTHING) out there for their fans in even the slowest of times is a way to stay front-and-center in the minds of their fans? Unfortunately for the Indians, the Browns’ fans will continue to seek out anything that they can find and mindlessly flock to fill CB Stadium every Sunday while the Indians figure to struggle to meet their attendance projections despite an off-season that resulted in a team that many are calling the prohibitive favorite in the AL Central…whatever that means in January.

But I digress,

Back to the Winter Press Tour, apparently something of value CAN come out of it and not just the canned responses to the obligatory “how do you feel” or “how do you think the team’s going to do this year” questions. Leave it to Castro to muddle through the muck to summarize the items of interest from the past two weeks.

Going through the notable entries, Castrovince asserts that Dellucci’s going to be on a “short leash”, which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, though I'd be very surprised if he didn’t at least break camp on the 25-man if only to let the Columbus OF sort itself out for a couple of weeks/months. Also pertaining to players on the fringe, he sees Barfield as the likely 25th player on the roster, which again shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise as Andy Marte’s ticket out of the organization seems to have been stamped and Barfield represents a player earning the league minimum who possesses some speed that can sit on the bench without blocking a real prospect (Valbuena) by playing 2B at all in Columbus.

On the bullpen, AC says that Atom Miller has to be considered the leader in the clubhouse saying that “If he's healthy and throwing well in camp, it's hard to imagine the Indians using an option on him to send him to Triple-A.” I don’t doubt that bringing Miller north may be a course of action that they’re considering, particularly because reports out of the Dominican League had him buzz-sawing through hitters with 98 MPH heat and a wicked 89 MPH splitter, but let’s all hope that Miller (assuming he’s that 7th bullpen arm) isn’t used like the 7th relievers out of the pen in the past. That is, if Miller is going to be on the 25-man roster on Opening Day, his talent should be what determines where he pitches as opposed to simply slotting him at the bottom of the bullpen ladder because it’s assumed that the progression goes Wood, Lewis, Perez, Betancourt, Smith, and Kobayashi from one to six.

Ideally, Miller’s performance in the Spring should dictate where he slots in the pen and if he’s dominating hitters in Goodyear like reports from the Dominican Winter League purported him to be, there’s no reason that the Indians should have him leapfrog immediately over Masa in the bullpen ladder and be on par with Betancourt and Smith in terms of where he slots. If Miller’s dominant in Arizona, give him a crack at that 6th inning role right away instead of putting him into that 7th reliever role that we saw Mujica and Mastny flounder in, where The Atomic Wedgie’s usage patterns are erratic at best.

Finally, Castro relays that Mike Brantley is “as mature a 21-year-old as you'll ever meet”, a notion that struck me as well when Tony Lastoria and I were lucky enough to welcome Brantley and his agent Josh Kusnick to the radio show some time ago. I don’t know about you, but the 21-year-old version of myself was not the most impressive or mature person that you would meet and Brantley’s poise at a young age, not to mention the fact that he doesn’t turn 22 until May and figures to start the season in AAA, speaks to a self-confidence (not a cockiness) that the special players often exhibit.

On the topic of Brantley, Tony Lastoria mentioned on this week’s show (during which we welcomed RHP Frank Herrmann) that he met Brantley at an event in Lake County and says that Brantley is about 6’2” or 6’3” and a “rock-solid” 200 lbs (which, ironically, is what Grady’s measurements are purported to be), attempting to put to rest any idea that Brantley is simply a slap-hitting speed guy that sits at the top of the lineup with no power. His stature and the fact that he’s still a 21-year-old growing into his body give some validity to Brantley’s comments during our interview a few months ago that scouts had told him that a comp for him was Garrett Anderson…which, at the time, I scoffed at. Certainly appearances are just that, but the on-base skills have always been there for Brantley (.399 career minor-league OBP) and he walked twice as much as he struck out last year in AA Huntsville, so it will be interesting to see if his power grows as his body matures and he moves himself further up the ladder.

Obviously, Brantley’s ability to hit for extra-base hits in AAA will go a long way to determining where he projects to be as a hitter, but know that Garrett Anderson had 42 extra-base hits as a 21-year-old in AAA in 1993 before becoming a fixture in the Angels’ lineup for the next 13 years, so if Brantley shows an ability to drive the ball in Columbus (now that he’s completely healthy and not hampered by the ankle injury that robbed him of some power in the 2nd half of 2008), it could portend good things for the PTBNL in the CC deal.

While we’re talking prospects and Mike Brantley, Keith Law’s Top 10 prospect list for the Indians came out this week (via the LGT, which also links that Law has the Indians possessing the 5th best farm system in MLB) and Brantley is not listed among Law’s Top 10. Law puts 5 Indians’ prospects in his Top 66 overall (including “why-did-the-Dodgers-trade-him-for-Lacey-Cake Carlos Santana” at #13 in all of baseball) and has some interesting comments regarding where he thinks his #27 prospect overall, Matt LaPorta, will end up (that would be in the middle of the lineup because of his “ready for the majors now” bat and at 1B because of speed, or lack thereof) going forward. Law is also high on the two young pitchers who could perhaps contribute mightily to the parent club this year, with Atom Miller (#58 overall) potentially becoming a pillar in the bullpen and with Dave Huff (#66 overall) factoring into the rotation mix for sure at some point in 2009.

These rankings always come off as a bit arbitrary and are certainly very subjective, a topic that Tony and I touched on in this past week’s show as I asked him how exactly he ranks these guys. Because if you haven’t noticed, Tony has been ranking the Indians’ prospects from #100 (!!!) and will be working his way to #1 on his website and is in the process of publishing a book with all 100 Top Prospects along with 30 more “bonus” scouting reports…because 100 simply wasn’t enough. If you’re interested in the book, it’s an absurdly exhaustive resource that probably takes you deeper into the Indians’ organization than you ever thought you would go. Regardless, information on how to purchase the book, as well as Tony’s rankings (I think he’s down to about #70 or so these days) can be found at his website.

To me, these prospect rankings are good reference points but I look at them in a little bit of a different way as I usually focus on the parent club quite a bit more than the farm. I often look at these players in terms of when they’re likely to surface in Cleveland and, in turn, who among each group excites me the most in terms of how much they’ll help. For instance, among the Indians’ farmhands, I see Dave Huff and Atom Miller making the biggest impact, in that order, on the Indians in 2009, with the possibility that LaPorta, Valbuena, Brantley, and Gimenez may help at some point, but more likely that they’ll contribute to the Indians in 2010. Everyone else below them may show up on the 25-man roster, but I’m not enthused about them the way that a guy like Huff excites me. If you’re talking about a 2010 list, I’m probably optimistic that Carlos Santana, LaPorta, Brantley, and Valbuena make an impact, again in that order. The rest of the guys that figure to start in Akron or below, to me at least, are fun to imagine who they might become (like a Carlos Rivero), but there’s just too much that can happen between now and…let’s say 2012 for me to really get excited about them.

For now, I’ll figure to worry about the 2012 lineup and rotation another day as a nap is in order, thanks to The DiaperTribe’s new favorite time of the day to play with his old man…that would be a little before 5:00 AM. And after an evening that only furthers my obsession with the new Indigo Imp Brewery’s products (which you need to find on the shelf of your local Heinen’s and try if you’re on the North Coast), I need a nap if only to dream of “the crack of the bat…the roar of the crowd…catch the fun, it’s here everyone!”

It’s getting closer…

Weekend Update: In Defense Of Hodges

Here is an excerpt from a recent Brendan Harris interview in Baseball Prospectus, and when reading this think about some of the recent "piling on" this offseason in regard to Indians third base prospect Wes Hodges' defense.

David Laurila: Depending on who you talk to, Brendan Harris is either an above-average defensive infielder or a below-average defensive infielder. Why do you think that difference of opinion exists?

Brendan Harris: I think that I was thought of as a pretty solid, or above-average defensive player when I was coming up with the Cubs. And I always remember this one game. I got traded, and I was in spring training with the Nationals, a new organization who, like I said, kind of cleaned house and got a new GM. I lost a ball in the sun, and then I made an error. Afterwards, the GM comes in and says, "I didn't know that you were that stiff defensively. You're really going to have to work on that" I think that was the second game of spring training, and defense is like hitting in that you need to get some rhythm; you need to get your feet moving in rhythm on ground balls. And I legitimately feel that he held that early-season impression against me my whole time there. Then I had different coaches I had never seen, and never worked with, say that I was stiff defensively. I felt like that rumor kind of permeated through the whole team—all of that from an early first impression. I wasn't that defensive about it; I just said, 'OK, I'm going to put some more work in.' There were some areas I thought I could improve, and I got after it and attacked my weaknesses, but it was still frustrating to have one guy, from a five- or ten-minute assessment, kind of give me a label. Even when I got to spring training in Tampa, I felt like I had a good camp, especially defensively, and Joe Maddon said, "Man, I didn't know you could play short; I didn't know you were that good defensively." I said, "Well, you haven't really seen me play," and he goes, "It was in this report," or whatever. So that report is still out there. I kind of want to find it and rip it up. But, seriously, I'm conscious of always getting better and always improving, and not getting defensive about somebody's critique of me. But at the same time, I feel that the critique was somewhat unwarranted, so it has been a little frustrating.

Just something for a little perspective. Three months ago Hodges was adored and many were looking forward to his debut as the everyday third baseman in Cleveland, that is, until Baseball America (BA) released their Top 10 Prospects back in November and not only did he miss the Top 10, but he did so they say because of a bad rating on defense. Ever since then, it seems like a lot of publications have piled on and used that some BA report. This is that unfortunate grapevine effect which happens with scouting reports of young players, where because all these writers/reporters for all these sites can't possibly see everyone, they often pull info from the same source, and all of a sudden that one source sounds like many sources.

It is the nature of the beast with scouting. Scouts typically see a pitcher ONE TIME over the course of a season and make a grade based on that one outing. Obviuously, they are trained to look through the actual results and numbers on the day, and instead are looking at things like makeup, confidence, control, command, pitchability, velocity, and so on. But it is amazing how they can do this in just one showing. Typically, a professional scout will have about seven organizations he scouts for his organization. Among each organization, he makes one 5-day visit to the pro team, Triple-A team, Double-A team, advanced Single-A team, and Single-A team. They stay at each stop for five days to see the entire five man starting rotation pitch. They generally do not see the short-season league teams, as those leagues startup after the draft and the amatuer scouts who had been scouting talent for the draft will follow the short-season league teams and maybe make another round to some of the full season teams if possible. But that is it.

In a nutshell, scouting is not an exact science, and sometimes these erroneous reports come into play when some misinformation goes through the grapevine. I'm not saying BA's report is invalid, but I do find some of the widespread national "piling on" a bit too convenient right after the BA report. Now, Hodges is certainly not a gifted defender, but he is not as bad as he is being made out to be these past two to three months by the fans and media. I am pretty confident he will be at worst an average, steady defender at third base, and he is working hard to prove people wrong.

From a great site if some of you still aren't reading it.

http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com/

JIM INGRAHAM: Farm stocked with potential

Saturday, January 24, 2009 1:15 AM EST

By JIM INGRAHAM

jingraham@MorningJournal.com

IN 1994, the year Mark Shapiro became the Indians farm director, the roster of the Tribe's Class AAA affiliate at Charlotte included the following players: Brian Giles, Herbert Perry, David Bell, Julian Tavarez, Dave Mlicki, Chad Ogea, Albie Lopez, and Paul Byrd.

That's eight prospects who went on to have fairly substantial major league careers. That's a very high percentage for any minor league team.

The Indians' 1993 Class AA club included Giles, Bell, Lopez, Tavarez, Perry, Alan Embree, Paul Shuey, and an outfielder you may have heard of, Manny Ramirez.

The Tribe's 1992 Class AA club included Giles, Byrd, Ogea, Embree, and Jim Thome.

Those years were the years, the teams, and the prospects that helped fuel the Indians run of division titles in the mid to late 1990s.

We haven't seen the likes of that kind of talent procurement and development from the Indians since.

Because that is so, the Indians in 2002 had to tear down their roster and rebuild it. The lack of minor league prospects were also contributing factors to the CC Sabathia and Casey Blake white flag trades in 2008.

For mid-market teams like the Indians, player development and a minor league system that consistently churns out major league talent is the lifeblood of its competitive existence.

Without it, a mid-market team bleeds. Sometimes for a succession of years.

With the start of spring training less than a month away, the Indians think they have stopped the bleeding.

"I feel like this is the most young talent we've had in our organization since I've been here,'' Shapiro said.

Others outside the organization, impartial observers, apparently agree.

ESPN's Keith Law, the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc., rates the Indians fifth best among the 30 major league teams in terms of minor league talent. The only teams ranked ahead of the Indians are Texas, Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Atlanta, who are Nos.1 through 4 respectively.

Five Indians minor leaguers are in Law's top 100 prospects in all of minor league baseball. Catcher Carlos Santana is ranked 13th, Matt LaPorta 27th, Adam Miller 58th, Nick Weglarz 61st, and David Huff 66th.

Law ranks Santana as the third best catching prospect in all the minor leagues, and LaPorta as the fifth best first base prospect. The Indians still view LaPorta more as a left fielder, although first base could be his eventual landing spot in the major leagues.

Miller, if he stays healthy, has a good chance to be on the Indians' opening day roster as a bullpen arm, while Huff will go to camp as one of the candidates competing for the No.5 spot in the starting rotation.

Weglarz is a very intriguing left-handed hitting outfielder in that he is a young power hitter who walks almost as much as he strikes out, which helped him post an excellent .396 on base percentage at high Class-A Kinston last year.

Weglarz will miss about three weeks of spring training while playing for the Canadian team in the World Baseball Classic. He is one of about six to eight members of the Indians' organization, both major and minor leaguers, who will miss time this spring while playing for their respective countries.

"We don't like losing players in the spring like that, but we support the WBC,'' said Shapiro. "The upside is it will give us a chance to get longer looks at some of our other young guys.''

That would include players such as outfielders LaPorta, Trevor Crowe, and Michael Brantley, first baseman Beau Mills, second baseman Luis Valbuena, third baseman Wes Hodges, plus Santana and Huff.

Young pitchers such as Hector Rondon, Rich Rundles, and Tony Sipp are already highly regarded enough to be on the major league 40-man roster, so they will be in the major league camp as well.

And there's also the cluster of young lefties who will come to camp competing for that one spot in the starting rotation. That group includes Jeremy Sowers, Aaron Laffey, and Scott Lewis.

All of these names are names that figure to make varying degrees of impact at the major league level over the next few years. Some perhaps will become core players for the Indians, others may be used in trades for veteran players needed to give the club a push in a future division race.

Make no mistake about it, however, young talent is a valued currency in major league baseball. Those are the kinds of players that teams seek, and covet once they acquire them.

Shapiro thinks the Indians have as much or more young talent in their system now than they've had at any point in the last 15 to 17 years. He better be right. Because the stakes are too high for him to be wrong.

http://www.morningjournal.com/articles/200...ts/mj516495.txt

Beanpot

Hey, Hoynsie: Two years ago, Cliff Lee started out hurt and ended up in Class AAA Buffalo for a stint. Last year he won the Cy Young. Is there any reason to think that Fausto Carmona could win 16 to 20 games if he has a healthy spring? -- Mark Lasher, Bangor, Pa.

Hey, Mark: It's hard to say. Two years ago Carmona won 19 games. Last year he won eight and missed almost two months with a left hip injury. If his win total is between those two numbers this year, I think the Indians would be happy.

They'd be even happier if he stayed off the disabled list.

Hey, Hoynsie: Given that Victor Martinez is expected to play more first base this season due to Kelly Shoppach's solid season behind the plate in 2008, how do you see Ryan Garko fitting into the first-base rotation for 2009? -- Chris Biros, Walton Hills

Hey, Chris: Let's put it this way, Garko can't afford a slow start. He's going to lose at-bats at first base and designated hitter if Martinez and Travis Hafner stay healthy because they're going to play every day. I don't think manager Eric Wedge's plan to play Garko in the outfield will bear fruit.

Garko's best bet for consistent playing time is to hit early and well.

Hey, Hoynsie: I don't understand the Indians' rationale for signing Carl Pavano since they need a starter and he really hasn't pitched in four years? Why not Randy Johnson or Chan Ho Park, who are healthier and also signed one-year deals? -- Hank Jazcik, Brooklyn

Hey, Hank: The Indians signed Pavano on Jan. 6. By that time Johnson had already signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Giants. Johnson, 45, let it be known that he didn't want to pitch in Cleveland.

There's not a whole lot of difference between Pavano and Chan Ho Park. They've both been physical wrecks the last several years and haven't pitched much in the big leagues. Pavano's one-year, $1.5 million deal fit the Indians' budget after they'd spent most of their money on Kerry Wood. The Dodgers signed Park to a one-year, $2.5 million deal.

All three pitchers represent short-term gambles. The Giants exposed themselves to the most monetary risk with Johnson.

Hey, Hoynsie: I saw your recent answer about the Indians' statistics -- ERA, fielding percentage, saves and batting average. No one except baseball writers pays the least attention to these stats, especially fielding percentage. When will you come into the 21st century? -- James Rydzel, Bluffton, S.C.

Hey, James: Hey, I like it fine right here in my snug little cave that I share with a sabertooth tiger and a reformed sabermetric junkie.

By the way, if saves are so passe, why did the Mets give Francisco Rodriguez all that money? Just wondering as I flip my Woolly Mammoth burger over a roaring open fire.

Hey, Hoynsie: I didn't realize the Tribe's fielding percentage was so good last year. Can you provide us with the Tribe's offensive numbers before and after the All-Star break last year? -- Ronnie Nix, Cleveland

Hey, Ronnie: The Indians were 41-53 in the first half. They hit .250 with 426 runs, 183 doubles, 11 triples, 93 homers, 413 RBI, 300 walks, 681 strikeouts, 47 steals, .402 slugging percentage and .323 on-base percentage.

In the second half, the Tribe went 40-28. They hit .280 with 379 runs, 156 doubles, 11 triples, 78 homers, 359 RBI, 260 walks, 532 strikeouts, 30 steals, .454 slugging percentage and a .359 on-base percentage.

Hey, Hoynsie: There are many big name free-agents still available. Jim Edmonds, Adam Dunn, Joe Crede, to name a few. Why do you think it is taking so long for these guys to find a team? -- Robert Driscoll, Parma

Hey, Robert: Edmonds is at the end of his career and Crede has a bad back. Dunn would be a great sign for a team that can afford him, but there's a catch. He's a Type A free agent, meaning any team that signs him would have to give up their first- or second-round draft pick.

This is a tough market for veterans. Money is tight and many teams are building with younger players because they're less expensive. They do not want to give up high draft picks.

Then again, look at a team like Boston that has payroll to spare. Just recently they cherry-picked John Smoltz, Mark Kotsay, Takashi Saito and Rocco Baldelli as role players. It is always nice to have money to burn.

Hey, Hoynsie: Amazing that GM Mark Shapiro and manager Eric Wedge don't believe in speed. Wedge caught in the big leagues, right? Shapiro was in Cleveland during Kenny Lofton's heyday, right? Is this an example as to why the team makes so many talent evaluation errors? -- Peter Winkler, Cleveland

Hey, Peter: Shapiro and Wedge have nothing against speed when it pertains to going from first to third, second to home or running a ball down in the outfield. But from conversations with them, they feel the stolen base is overrated. They feel it doesn't increase a team's ability to score runs and that it is an unnecessary luxury when it comes to building a team on a tight budget.

Hey, Hoynsie: A friend and I recently went to the site of old League Park at East 66th and Lexington in Cleveland. It's hard to believe that's the same neighborhood that you see in the old aerial photos. Nearly everything at the park and the surrounding neighborhood is gone. I once read of plans to rebuild the stadium for local high school games. Is that still in the works? -- Nick Kynyk, Dublin, Ohio

Hey, Nick: In 2007 Mayor Frank Jackson said the city would invest about $8.5 million into renovating League Park. Cleveland's share of the investment, about $5 million, was to come through the sale of bonds. In 2008, the city delayed the sale of bonds because of other priorities.

The push to renovate League Park lost a big booster when Councilwoman Fannie Lewis died last year. She was determined to see it refurbished.

The Indians played their last game at League Park on Sept. 21, 1946 against Detroit. The Cleveland Buckeyes of the Negro Leagues played there through 1950.

Hey, Hoynsie: What is your take on manager Eric Wedge?

I know Wedge is GM Mark Shapiro's pick to run the club, but given the amount of time he's been on the job without a World Series appearance it doesn't make sense. Charlie Manuel, on the other hand, guided the Phillies to a World Series championship in less time than Wedge. Perhaps Manuel had more talent on the Phillies, but Wedge has had more time. -- Frank Jacetty, Cleveland

Hey, Frank: Manuel inherited a much better club and situation in Philadelphia than Wedge did in Cleveland. This will be Manuel's fifth year as the Phillies manager. Here are the Phillies' opening day 25-man payrolls for his first four seasons -- $96 million in 2005, $88 million in 2006, $89 million in 2007 and $98 million in 2008. Compare that to Wedge's first six years with the Indians -- $49 million in 2003, $34 million in 2004, $42 million in 2005, $56 million in 2006, $62 million in 2007 and $79 million in 2008.

Manuel didn't have to go through a complete rebuild as Wedge did in 2003 and 2004.

Last year Manuel won a World Series with the help of No. 1 picks Pat Burrell, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Chase Utley along with Jimmy Rollins, a No. 2 pick, and Ryan Howard, a No. 5 pick. They were all drafted, signed and developed by the Phillies.

When the Indians opened last season, the only homegrown No. 1 pick they had on their 25-man roster was CC Sabathia. It's hard to compensate for low payrolls and a lack of impact players from the draft. Wedge has made his mistakes, but the fact that he enters this season with a winning record (496-476) is remarkable.

One more thing, Frank. The Indians have been playing baseball since 1901. They've made five World Series appearances. If you're into instant gratification, you're following the wrong team.

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2..._answer_29.html

Beanpot