You can find me a similar story, or another long shot but the doesn't change anything. It's called data. Data can show you probabilities and can even rule some things out of being considered a reasonable expectation. Saying "Well this guy was drafted here and he became this" is relying on individual antidotal evidence and saying it nullifies the populous data. It does not. It's an outlier. Outliers can not be reasonably expected.

For instance a Running Back is going to run a better 40 time than a Lineman. Data proves this. Now there has been a lineman that has run a better 40 time than a running back before, but you can not have a reasonable expectation of that outcome. It's highly unlikely.

On a grander scale look at airplane travel. Data shows the safest form of commercial travel is by airplane. Planes do crash but they're so rare that you can not reasonably expect any plane you're on to crash. You could fly everyday multiple times and never die in a plane crash. Though they do happen, that doesn't change the rule the data has set.

If you jump out of a plane without a parachute, you will die. Data supports this. Now you can google and find people who have LIVED falling from planes. That doesn't change the rule. If you jump out of a airplane without a parachute, you will die. No reasonable expectation otherwise.

Brian Hoyer is a undrafted QB that has been cut 3 times. There's a reason for that. He's not going to be a great QB. You can say others have, but you have no reasonable expectation that he will. The data on that situation is overwhelming. Now of course you will all say something about Manziel I'm sure and you're right, first round draft picks don't always pan out. However the data will show there is a reasonable expectation that a first round draft pick will work out.

If you had to bet your life on Brian Hoyer making the Hall of Fame would you?

Now once again because you always have to respond with Manziel, I'll tell you right now I wouldn't bet my life on Manziel making the Hall of Fame.

HOWEVER if I had to take either Hoyer or Manziel and for my life I had to bet which one would make the Hall of Fame, I'd bet Manziel EVERYTIME all the time and so would you. Why? Because of the data. One was evaluated and undrafted and then evaluated by 3 other teams and cut from their team. The other won an award as the best college player, then was evaluated by NFL teams and chosen in the first round. The odds are much higher there.

If you think Hoyer is going to be a great QB, then you're fighting data. You're standing at the open door of a plane telling me you could survive jumping without a parachute. I'm telling you that you can't, but you're saying that you saw on the news that someone else did it.

The result is inevitable. History will not be kind to choosing against the data.

That's the last you'll see me speak about Brian Hoyer. Have at it.