@manzier said:

Ty Detmer? Was he even drafted?

Yup... Green Bay, but there were more than 7 rounds back then.

@fairhooker11 said:

Ty Detmer? Was he even drafted?

@fairhooker11 said:

Yep. You need a grossly large cup to fit that bust.

Then, of course, the guys that do little or nothing in their careers get like -0- or 1, 2,3 etc.

My formula is to do this: Lets just go back to like 1960 because the career average stat has only been universally calculated since then. We will take a QBs draft position....1-2-3-4 etc. and we will add it to his Career average number, and we will get the biggest draft busts in history by who has the lowest number.

And here are the results in order of biggest QB draft bust ever since 1960:

1 tied Ryan Leaf #2 overall CA= 1 Total: 3

1 tied Randy Duncan #1 overall CA = 2 Total: 3

3 tied Akili Smith #3 overall CA= 1 Total: 4

3 tied Don Allard #4 overall CA= 0 Total: 4

5 Sandy Stephens #5 overall CA= 0 Total: 5

6. Richie Lucas #4 overall CA= 2 Total: 6

7. tie George Izo #2 overall CA= 5 Total: 7

7. tie Terry Baker #1 overall CA= 6 Total: 7

7. tie Jamarcus Russell #1 overall CA= 6 Total: 7

10. tie Rick Norton #2 overall CA= 6 Total: 8

10. tie Rich Campbell #6 overall CA= 2 Total: 8

10. tie Art Schlichter #4 overall CA=4 Total: 8

10. tie Kelly Stouffer #6 overall CA= 2 Tota:l 8

14. Heath Shuler #3 overall CA= 6 Total: 9

15. Andre Ware #7 overall CA= 5 Total: 12

16. Lee Grosscup #10 overall CA= 4 Total: 14

17. tie Dan McGwire #16 overall CA= 2 Total: 18

17. tie Blaine Gabbert #10 overall CA= 8 Total: 18 (note, still active so could recover)

19. tie Jerry Tagge #11 overall CA= 8 Total: 19

19. tie Cade McNown #12 overall CA= 7 Total: 19

21. Steve Pisarkewiscz #19 overall CA= 2 Total: 21

22. Brady Quinn #22 overall CA= 2 Total: 24

23. tie Jim Druckenmiller #26 overall CA= 1 Total: 27

23. tie Todd Marinovich #24 overall CA= 3 Total: 27

Honorable Mentions include:

Greg Cook

John Reaves

David Klingler

Chuck Long

Todd Blackledge

Matt Leinert

Jack Thompson

So...to me, based on a pure statistical formula....Ryan Leaf is indeed the biggest bust of all time.

And here is a model upon which I would like to design a trophy for him:

@tour2ma said:

Expectation is everything. I would say this.....in all my years(decades now) following the draft, it is a rare day that the first couple of picks are surprises......meaning there usually seems to be a consensus on who the "best" one or 2 are......

oddly, this year they had Clowney, who to me looked like another puffed up Russell or Mandarich.....

anyway.....even with the #1 and 2 overall picks, it's still a crap shoot.......you'd think the 2 BEST picks would be pro=bowlers at least......so, assuming 4 Pro Bowls is a very good/excellent career, I established that as the standard for a quality #1 or #2 overall......anything less would be "disappointing".....

So I went back and reviewed the #1 and #2 overall picks for the last 50 years(100 players picked)......and here's what I got...

48% ..........never made the pro bowl

10%...........made it 1 time

9%...........made it 2 times

Which means that 67% of the very top picks had average or below careers......and Id say that the 48 are "busts" at some level, simply by where they were taken and the consensus expectation that they were exceptional

On the other hand, 33 of them made 4 or more pro bowls ........and 13 of them are HOF(so far).....which is a pretty high percentage actually...

7 of the last 50 #1 = HOF

6 of the last 50 #2 = HOF

So, if 48 out of a 100 of the TOP 2 picks fail....thats every other pick, btw.....what are the realistic expectations for players taken at 23 - 132 -- or 200???

I dont remember ANYONE thinking Tebow would be a good pro....infact, my memory is that it was a foregone conclusion he wouldnt be good and people were shocked when Denver plucked him in the first.......most of the Tebow "hype" I remember started "after" he was drafted and started the whole praying thing, that became "Tebowing"......etc

@douche-nozzle said:

But he started 63 games and played for 6 seasons. Tebow was Mr. America and held the country in the palm of his hand and he was gone in 16 starts, little Johnny should beat all of that by a mile.

Tony Mandarich was widely believed to be the greatest line prospect of all-time... not only a slam dunk rookie, but a slam-dunk first ballot HOFer at career's end.

After being drafted #2 overall he started zero games his rookie season. He started the next two years at RT for very poor Packers teams and was released at the end of his rookie deal.

He was out of football for 5 years before joining the Colts as a journeyman. He started 6 games for a decent '96 team, and 26 for the piss poor '97 and '98 teams.

In the end he was a mountain of hype followed by a pedestrian career highlighted by leaving two teams as young HOF QBs began their careers.

@the-gipper said:

When I googled the thread title, these are the first images that come up:

Poor girl has to lean on a tree to stay upright...

@the-gipper said:

To me, the difference with Tebow and Johnny, compared to a Leaf or Russell is the consensus that Leaf & Russell would be good, while there was MUCH conjecture about guys like Tebow and Johnny.....

1/2 the pundits thought they would fail......and they did....

so....I guess they are busts in the sense that a first round pick was used, but truly think they were reaches to begin with and it's really not a huge surprise(to a lot of folks) that they haven;t done well.....

@douche-nozzle said:

Yea, well, we may have our own analysis to do when it comes to hype vs. performance. I guess we shall see.

@douche-nozzle said:

I guess you could categorize it two ways, draft position versus performance is one, I was thinking about hype versus outcome.

If the latter, then how does anyone surpass Tony Manderich?

And as an overall #2, he's a strong contender for the former as well.

Zombo said:

I get horny every time I read this thread title.

Zombo

Finally somebody got it! Read the OP.

WSS

Zombo

VesnaKociper said:

Yea, that is terrible for Browns fans.....but Phipps played some years....even had some playoff games under his belt...But again, go back to Garrett. #1 overall pick.....by the Browns No starts. No wins. 9 games played....none for the Browns. 15/30 for his career. 143 yards, no TDs, 1 Int.

Yea, I know it was 1954....before our collective personal memories perhaps. But THAT is a bust.

@douche-nozzle said:

But Tebow won some games....even a playoff game. Some of these guys.....like Garrett, never even started a single game.

@douche-nozzle said:

Blow me

"ok. I'll blow the sweat off your back while you suck my dick."

WSS

@douche-nozzle said:

The Browns beat themselves for your entire life;)

Uh we were talking about Tebow making you his bitch.

Try to keep up.

WSS

http://www.lostlettermen.com/slideshow/4-16-2012-top-50-nfl-draft-busts-where-are-they-now/

@douche-nozzle said:

Tebow beat the stooolers in the playoffs

Leaf, Russell, Shuler and Schlister

How many first round picks never won a football game? Johnny needs to get off that list.

Zombo

@chicopee-john said:

it was frustrating during those years but the team basically had to be rebuilt. The older guys from the Collier years were retiring.

We had some great picks with Jerry Sherk and Greg Pruitt, and Sipe on the taxi squad...

When I saw Phipps play, I always thought of Bobby Douglas from those crappy Bears teams - he ran most of the time and couldnt throw worth a damn.

definite overreach as a first rounder for sure.. and steep price giving up Warfield.

my bust pick(s) - Ty Detmer , Steve Walsh they actually played awhile too

GuNNerGatSKy said:

Absolutely agree. Many QBs probably have say Brady's physical talents.....but few in any have ever had his intangible talents.

And look at the guy he is facing tomorrow......he is ALL about the intangibles