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Play The Draft Market Analysis Thursday, March 26, 2015:

*Note: The acronym FRX refers to Play The Drafts proprietary ranking system which takes draft order predictions and private scouting input to develop a moving average on prospect sentiment every day. This FRX Index drives the prospects draft stock value within the Play The Draft contest.

In honor of the kickoff of the first Play The Draft with the Cleveland Browns contest, lets take a look at the scenarios I think will play out with the Browns two 1st-round picks (#12 and #19) this year, as well as examine the PTD-potential from it, because the two players I have in mind for them could yield around $2M total in PTD-portfolio gains on draft day from where their current FRX is at nowif Im right.

First, lets set the scene on the Browns mindset for these two 1st-round picksfrom my perspective.

Does everyone remember that the Browns were sitting in first place mid-season in 2014? They got out to a 6-3 start, leading the division on and off along the way, and eventually hit a 7-4 record. Just three wins in their final five games would have put them into playoff and division title position. However, the Browns lost their final five games in-a-row, and gone with it was any hope at the playoffsor even a winning record. It was the most wins (7) the team has had in a season in the past seven years, but because of the way it endedany positive vibe coming into 2015 has taken a hit. All that said, lets not lose sight that this is a team with a decent foundation, and a great head coach.

For my money, Mike Pettine is one of the 5-10 best coaches in the NFL. He is one of the top defensive minds in the NFL, and one of the more refreshingly honest coaches Ive come across in years. Their defense is going to be fine regardless as long as Pettine is there. They dont need to reach for a defensive player in the first round of the draft.

There were times last year where the Browns, at full strength, were flashing as one of the best defenses in the NFL. They fell victim to untimely injuries and poor QB play late more than anything. What the Browns-D did to Andrew Luck in Week-14 was jaw-dropping (for most of that contest). The Browns run defense was rated one of the worst in 2014, but that overlooks their brilliance in stopping opposing passing games. Ultimately, the Browns defense was 9th best in the NFL in points allowed last season. The defense is the Browns strength right now.

You cannot feel that their O-Line is a major crisis to be dealt with in the draft, as the Browns used a revolving door of RBs to success all throughout the season. This was a team that ultimately dumped Ben Tate mid-season, and started rookie RBs from Towson (Terrance West) and Alabama State (Isaiah Crowell)and both youngsters did acceptable-to-good jobs given the circumstances.

Of all the draft needs the Browns have, I (and most everyone) suspects it comes down to what they lost with Johnny Manziel flopping and Josh Gordon getting suspended. They are lacking real playmakers at QB and WR. The Browns offense scored the sixth lowest points per game in the NFL last season. Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline are nice-ish additions, but are not game changers at WR. Sitting at the #12 spot means the Browns may have a choice of several stellar WR prospects from this draft, but one I have in mind just became in play for them as of yesterday.

With this set up in mind, lets now look at specific players for each of the Browns two 1st-round picks

What the Browns will do at pick #12:

There is talk of Phil Taylor playing nose tackle in 2015, and Mike Pettine is a make due kind of defensive coachoften unearthing defensive talent under rocks that others missed. So you wouldnt think nose tackle is a must need with a high pick like #12, but I think they would at least pause to think about taking Washington DT prospect Danny Shelton (10.0 FRX, $2.4M PTD-value, 11.1% PTD-owned) if he fell to them. Shelton is a very athletic, active behemoth to anchor the middle of a 3-4 D-Line. However, I dont think Shelton will still be available by pick #12.

To me, this pick is going to be a WR. I might not have thought that 24 hours ago, but there was a game-changing event yesterday. Central Florida WR Breshad Perriman (42.0 FRX, $955K PTD-value, 20.5% PTD-owned) ran 40-times at his Pro Day in the 4.2s with some claiming 4.1s on one of his attempts. Mel Kiper has been projecting Perriman as a top-20 pick for weeks, before this Pro Day lightning bolt. Perriman is going to be a top-20 guy for most mock drafters ahead; you would think.

The Browns could have some interesting choices at WR come the #12 pick. Amari Cooper might fall in their lap, which would be sensational for them, but is unlikely to happen. DeVante Parker should be available as an option, and now Perriman becomes a legit discussion point within the top-15. I dont think the Browns will select Dorial Green-Beckhamafter the off-field debacles with last years #1 picks: Johnny Manziel and Justin Gilbert, much less all that has taken place with Josh Gordon. It may come down to Parker or Perriman at #12.

If mock drafters universally begin pushing Perriman into the top-15, then there is approx. $800-900K to be made in your Play The Draft portfolio over the next few weeks with him. If Perriman is the actual #12 pick on draft day, its a cool $1M+ in PTD-gains from where Perriman is PTD-valued today.

Regardless of whether you buy Perriman to the Browns or not, he is now the must own stock in Play The Draft after his headline grabbing Pro Day 40-times.

What the Browns will do at pick #19:

I may be one of a handful that believes this, but I think the Browns will draft UCLA QB Brett Hundley (49.8 FRX, $833K PTD-value, 12.5% PTD-owned) at #19.

My logic is as follows: There are only three QBs worth discussing in the 1st-round of the draftWinston-Mariota-Hundley. By the time the Browns pick #12, only Hundley will remain available.

Marcus Mariota comes with a lot of questions/is not the right offensive fit for the Browns. So I suspect they would not trade up for him if he falls a little. Hundley should be there come pick #19, and while most see him as a 2nd-rounder, I would say the QB position is too critical to get cute on valuation. The QB with the best chance to be a franchise guy at pick #19 is Brett Hundleyand you have to pay up for it if you think there is a strong-to-decent chance he could be a fixture.

All Hundley has done over his three seasons starting is rack up 75 passing TDs with just 25 INTs. To put his college passing performance in some context: Hundley threw 14 picks in his last two college seasons (26 games). Jameis Winston coughed up 18 INTs just last season.

Winston accounted for 2.66 TDs per game (pass and rush) in his college career. Hundley has produced 2.65 TDs per game in his college career (2.68 per game if you count his one receiving TD).

Winston completed a stellar 66.0% of his passes in his college career. Hundley produced 67.6% accuracy.

Hundley is A+ in character off the field. He has high-end mobility. He has an NFL+ arm. He played in an offense last year that had him throwing downfield like in a pro style offense. He is not a gimmick passing game QB. He worked the ball downfield on his throwswhile maintaining a great TD-INT ratio.

I like Hundley as an NFL prospect better than Winston, but I realize no one else does. My Hundley-love is not the main reason that I push him here. I think NFL QB economics will be the catalyst. QB is the most critical position in the NFL times ten. After Hundley is gone, its a big drop-off to the Bryce Pettys of the world. If you want a shot at a franchise QBHundley is your chance at #19.

Josh McCown is not the planjust ask the Bucs about that, who are picking #1 overall in large part due to McCown. Johnny Manziel cannot be trusted to head up a franchise. In a world of McCowns, Cassels, Fitzpatricks as NFL options and a 2015 NFL Draft lacking in QB prospect depththe Browns may have to pinch their nose and pay up for Hundley. Disregard all this if they trade for Mike Glennonthus securing all the QBs from the 2-14 Bucs of 2014.

If Brett Hundley goes #19 to Cleveland on draft day, it would mean an $800K+ PTD-portfolio gain from where Hundley trades at today.

Good Luck with your Play The Draft trades today!

-- R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for PlayTheDraft.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logics football software The Machine.