That just means companies like PFF and others do the menial work of collecting the information by watching and charting every snap (it is tedious, I do it and can't keep up with just every Browns game), and then like Tour said, the analytics and modeler bros run it through their software and create usable intelligence.

@tour2ma said:

Thanks, Flugs...

Just struck me that in lieu of a staff, DePodesta may just buy data and crunch it through models he has or will develop. I assume there is football data for sale. I know businesses were started to generate baseball data once defensive and pitching data system were developed.

Moneyball is an unavoidable focus because it made the A's the most public example of analytics. I don't think we know where analytics have gone in MLB since Moneyball, what they've entailed in the NFL to date or how far they will ultimately reach. Terry Pluto just mentioned player health and conditioning as an area... it had not crossed my mind.

I think you are saying that the Browns' emphasis will exceed it's practice or impact early on... in other words the change will be gradual and continuous. That certainly would be my view... and that is a positive approach.

One facet that I imagine will come in time is analytically projecting when a player will go in the draft. That will help properly place your "plucky guy from East Central Texas State" example.

I have been working on that algorithm for two years, good luck to them. Granted, I only dabble in analytics.

Just struck me that in lieu of a staff, DePodesta may just buy data and crunch it through models he has or will develop. I assume there is football data for sale. I know businesses were started to generate baseball data once defensive and pitching data system were developed.

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

I think people are getting too caught up in Moneyball and think it's going to apply here. It won't. Not in the way that it did in Oakland, or New York, or anywhere in the MLB for that matter.

Will analytics guide our signings more? Sure - but they should have already. If they don't, you end up with guys like Dwayne Bowe and Davonne Bess.

I don't foresee us trying to buck the system and take the plucky guy from East Central Texas State in the first round because he has a 92% on target + completion percentage at home in winds above 20 mph, but I do see us taking guys 1) that are relatively unknowns in the middle to late rounds and 2) ahead of where they were projected in the earlier rounds.

Odell Beckham Jr. was seen by many as the third, possibly fourth best WR in 2014 and was projected as a middle first pick (where he went) - but I don't think anybody would be opposed to taking him at #4 if we had the chance. I think we'll see more of that. Instead of trading back and trying to bargain basement our way in with guys that are falling, we're going to look at the league and see how teams have flipped it around and compare that with "contribution percentages" (for lack of a better term) for each position - i.e. which positions immediately contribute to teams in similar situations as us.

All in all, I think we're just going to look at things a little more granular. Comparing league wide draft data doesn't fit for us, because we're not in the same situation. Instead, I think we'll look at teams with new head coaches, possibly new front offices, with chronic losing seasons who were able to turn it around in a matter of one-two years and maintain some semblance of success.

Moneyball is an unavoidable focus because it made the A's the most public example of analytics. I don't think we know where analytics have gone in MLB since Moneyball, what they've entailed in the NFL to date or how far they will ultimately reach. Terry Pluto just mentioned player health and conditioning as an area... it had not crossed my mind.

I think you are saying that the Browns' emphasis will exceed it's practice or impact early on... in other words the change will be gradual and continuous. That certainly would be my view... and that is a positive approach.

One facet that I imagine will come in time is analytically projecting when a player will go in the draft. That will help properly place your "plucky guy from East Central Texas State" example.

@tour2ma said:

Nice!

To your point, if we can get Office DePo to Fed Ex previous cap clogging ideas like D Bowe outta here - I won't have to keep reliving the reality he only caught 5 more passes than Ghoolie.

@furious-styles said:

I read bits and pieces about it. And Dave Roberts had a great career in baseball and went to high school in the same city that I did. There's worse examples.

@mark-o said:

Huh?

Did u read what you posted ?

@furious-styles said:

Huh?

All that great BUILD UP AND........dave roberts ?

lmao !

@tour2ma said:

I think people are getting too caught up in Moneyball and think it's going to apply here. It won't. Not in the way that it did in Oakland, or New York, or anywhere in the MLB for that matter.

Will analytics guide our signings more? Sure - but they should have already. If they don't, you end up with guys like Dwayne Bowe and Davonne Bess.

I don't foresee us trying to buck the system and take the plucky guy from East Central Texas State in the first round because he has a 92% on target + completion percentage at home in winds above 20 mph, but I do see us taking guys 1) that are relatively unknowns in the middle to late rounds and 2) ahead of where they were projected in the earlier rounds.

Odell Beckham Jr. was seen by many as the third, possibly fourth best WR in 2014 and was projected as a middle first pick (where he went) - but I don't think anybody would be opposed to taking him at #4 if we had the chance. I think we'll see more of that. Instead of trading back and trying to bargain basement our way in with guys that are falling, we're going to look at the league and see how teams have flipped it around and compare that with "contribution percentages" (for lack of a better term) for each position - i.e. which positions immediately contribute to teams in similar situations as us.

All in all, I think we're just going to look at things a little more granular. Comparing league wide draft data doesn't fit for us, because we're not in the same situation. Instead, I think we'll look at teams with new head coaches, possibly new front offices, with chronic losing seasons who were able to turn it around in a matter of one-two years and maintain some semblance of success.

With a magic computer program that finds the best players and a bottomless checkbook, yes, I'd say that should guarantee success.

WSS

@westside-steve said:

Paying them more than they are worth isn't the point. Outbidding your opponents is.

I thought the point was the guarantee...

@mudfly said:

So, I guess Im a little confuse on the whole discussion of analytics and how it applies to the Browns going forward....

*** So basically everything is as clear as Mud? "Welcome to the party, Pal." ***

Im guessing that the primary focus will be an added resource for grading and pricing the talent being considered for the team. So, potential draft picks and/or free agents will be graded....using traditional methods AND analytics.....and a value or price will be assigned to these players......

*** Pricing certainly was the eye-opening take by the author of the overthecap.com article I posted. ***

But.....Im also seeing some discussion of how analytics might be involved in game time decisions....meaning the coaching staff would have to consider these analytical approaches when deciding who plays....or what plays to run....or how to respond to certain situations....

*** This is a different area. Most of what you mention is more traditional statistical analysis that has been around for a very long time. Your opponents "tendencies" in 3rd and long. Your tendencies on 1st and 10. League conversion rates when in 4th and 1 or less. I think Tom Landry was one of the earlier emphasizers of Stat Analysis. It has even covered individual and combinations of individuals impact on macro results, e.g., 1st down conversion rate, YPA passing, YPA rushing.

Analytics certainly carry the promise of systematically capturing individual contributions to the above macro results. How much will it be used in this area? Good question... ***

Is this correct?......will the use of analytics extend beyond player acquisition???.....

In the end....Im just wondering if this is just a shiny new tool being added to the tool box....or is it a whole new way of doing everything?

*** Last questions are the key ones...

I do not think we know at this point how far reaching the approach will be... what percentage of "traditional football processes" it will touch. Some fits will be better than others; some applications will be more aligned with the analyses than others.

As for the tool's age... certainly not new in concept. However, I'd bet that DePo has been playing with details, models for years and so has some unique elements. Very similar to the whole coaching tree model where the best branches add their own contributions to the systems they were trained under.

One thing does seem clear... at least publicly the emphasis upon the analyses will be like nothing the league has seen. ***

WSS

WSS

@westside-steve said:

No shit. And if the system is great combining it with an unlimited checkbook should guarantee a world series sweep every year.

But analytics do not produce guarantees, just better odds. And paying players more than they are worth does not increase their performance level.

Remember the scene in the movie where Depodesta and Beane sit down with the A's owner? It was early in a season (maybe 1/3rd of the way through at most) and they were way behind their projected win total?

They convinced the owner (and themselves to some extent) that the sample size was as yet too small to conclude that they should abandon their plan.

Sure enough by the end of the 162-game season the team had exceeded their projected win total.

And then they quickly exited the playoffs where a 5 or 7-game series is again... a small sample size.

The NFL's 16-game season is one of the factors that contribute to the justifiable questioning of applying sabermetrics to Pro football.

@mudfly said:

I would predict that it would be a tool. I mean I suppose that you could compare say that it could now be used by a woodcarver as a dremel where before he only used a whittling knife or chisel. It is still the skill, experience and direction that the woodcarver brings to the project that is important.

@bbedward said:

Precisely. Some people here are going around with their hair on fire thinking that this analytics thing is the be all end all of everything about the future of the team. It certainly is not going to be that from what I understand. It is simply another tool to try to find the best players and the best strategies that may be implemented. Certainly the Browns have done poorly in both talent evaluation and strategy. This may help some. But no, it will not replace good solid football coaching.

And that will be the biggest key: Who they hire as a coach....who they hire as the DOPP. As far as I am concerned they are the more important hires than this CSO. The CSO will only aid and abet the HC and DOPP to do their jobs correctly. He won't run them, he will help them.

Tell me who those guys are going to be. And quit worrying about this.

Im guessing that the primary focus will be an added resource for grading and pricing the talent being considered for the team. So, potential draft picks and/or free agents will be graded....using traditional methods AND analytics.....and a value or price will be assigned to these players......

But.....Im also seeing some discussion of how analytics might be involved in game time decisions....meaning the coaching staff would have to consider these analytical approaches when deciding who plays....or what plays to run....or how to respond to certain situations....

Is this correct?......will the use of analytics extend beyond player acquisition???.....

In the end....Im just wondering if this is just a shiny new tool being added to the tool box....or is it a whole new way of doing everything?

Same when it comes to the actual game - a lot of the time something breaks down and you need someone who can improvise. You have the factor of "heart"

I don't imagine we're going to be 1-dimensional and use analytics 100% for everything, as some seem to think. I think the balance will be when the football guys come in via coach/GM. It'd be a balance between football evaluations and analytical ones.

We'll just have to see how it works out - and who we bring into the building to complement Sashimi and Home Depo

Have to agree with Banner that it's one of a number of useful tools a team needs. It will not by itself change the game.

@furious-styles said:

Can't dismiss the affect of $200,000,000 + payrolls season after season either.

No shit. And if the system is great combining it with an unlimited checkbook should guarantee a world series sweep every year.

WSS

@tour2ma said:

Also, FYI, NYY has quietly used them since the 90's...

Can't dismiss the affect of $200,000,000 + payrolls season after season either.

An example of misuse is the tendency shown here (and elsewhere) to sum PFF OL grades and declare this or that team's OL the best. PFF is analytics of individual contributions... play-by-painstaking-play. Summing them is a misapplication of PFF's work.