@vagitron said:

Again, good question.....when it comes to a stat I use often: the PFR Career Production Average, Rivers actually has the slight advantage over both BR and Eli.....(combining total yds/TDs/percentages etc. etc.)

But those other two guys have the rings.

Here is the statistical breakdown for those Top 11 2004 draftees:

Completions/atts: Rivers 3462/5339 BR 3476/5423 Eli 3695/6227

Yards: Rivers 41,447 BR 42, 995 Eli 44,191

TDs: Rivers 281 BR 272 Eli 294

TD%: Rivers 5.3 BR 5.0 Eli 4.7

Ints: Rivers 135 BR 147 Eli 199

Int%: Rivers 2.5 BR 2.7 Eli 3.2

Y/Att: Rivers 7.8 BR 7.9 Eli 7.1

YPG: Rivers 252.7 BR 251.4 Eli 238.9

Rating: Rivers 95.5 BR 94.0 Eli 83.5

Comp % Rivers 64.8 BR 64.1 Eli 59.3

CA: River 151 BR 145 Eli 134

All very similar...Eli's Ints and completion % give him a lower rating I think. The big difference between these guys:

2 of them have 2 rings.....one has none.

How much of that is serendipity?

@gumby73 said:

Interesting question....... they are very similar to me. Fair to say? Flacco has that ring which likely gives him the edge. But Ryan never had the kind of defense Flacco has had backing him up in his career.

@nickers said:

He was a pretty good QB. i think he was a run n' shoot guy in college. The team around him was not very good.

Zombo said:

Carr is better than both.

Z

Agreed. Fantasy football which I love has ruined how we evaluate players in the nfl. Carr is the best of that class.

@the-gipper said:

Phillip Rivers is actually, statistically the most productive of those 3 2004 QBs. But he is the one without titles. The other two have two each.....so they have that edge.

Of course....what would Rivers have done with the Steelers defenses over the years? Possibly just as good or better.

Is this fantasy football or football?

@the-gipper said:

So 8 years later the closest to Ryan & Flaco are sitting at #2. Which one you want?

@the-gipper said:

Much ado has been made about the fact that the Browns likely have the chance now to take the first QB that will be available in the forthcoming draft and that the Browns should make hay with that opportunity.

But....in the words of Lee Corso "Not so Fast My Friends"....maybe taking the first QB in a draft does not often mean that you get the best QB in the draft.

Here is a list of each of the first drafted QB in each draft in the Common draft era: 1966 to current, along with what QB was actually the best QB taken in that draft. If it is one and the same, then there will be a # sign, in a few years it is debatable and I will note those:

1966 Randy Johnson #

1967 Steve Spurrier....vs. Bob Griese

1968 Greg Landry....Ken Stabler

1969 Greg Cook.....James Harris

1970 Terry Bradshaw #

1971 Jim Plunkett....Ken Anderson# (but also Archie Manning/Joe Theisman in mix)

1972 Jerry Tagge....Brian Sipe

1973 Bert Jones.....Dan Fouts

1974 Danny White#

1975 Steve Bartkowski....Steve Grogan

1976 Richard Todd#

1977 Steve Pisarkewiscz....Tommy Kramer

1978 Doug Williams

1979 Jack Thompson....Joe Montana

1980 Marc Wilson....Eric Hipple (actually about equal between two mediocre QBs)

1981 Rich Campbell....Neil Lomax

1982 Art Schlichter....Jim McMahon

1983 John Elway....vs. Dan Marino (Jim Kelly also close)?

1984 Bommer Esiason#

1985 Randall Cunningham# (but Kosar in Supp draft??)

1986 Jim Everett

1987 Vinny Testaverde.....vs. Rich Gannon (close matchup)

1988 Tom Tupa ...Chris Chandler

1989 Troy Aikman#

1990 Jeff George....Neil O'Donnell

1991 Dan McGwire.....Brett Favre

1992 David Klingler....Brad Johnson

1993 Drew Bledsoe#

1994 Heath Shuler....Gus Frerotte or Trent Dilfer

1995 Steve McNair#

1996 Tony Banks#

1997 Jim Drukenmiller....Jake Plummer

1998 Peyton Manning#

1999 Tim Couch....Donovan McNabb

2000 Chad Pennington.....Tom Brady

2001 Michael Vick.....Drew Brees

2002 David Carr....David Garrard

2003 Carson Palmer#

2004 Eli Manning....vs. Phillip Rivers or Ben R. debateable

2005 Alex Smith....Aaron Rodgers

2006 Vince Young....Jay Cutler

2007 Jamarcus Russell....Trent Edwards

2008 Matt Ryan# (or Joe Flacco?)

2009 Matt Stafford#

2010 Sam Bradford#

2011 Cam Newton

2012 Andrew Luck....Russell Wilson

2013 EJ Manuel...or Geno Smith (equally bad)

2014 Blake Bortles.....Teddy Twatwater...so far

2015 Jameis Winston# so far

Out of 50 years, only 19 times did the first QB taken in the draft turn out to be the best QB to come out of that draft. In 5 other years I think it is debateable (1971, 1980, 1987 2004, 2013) leaving at least 26 times where clearly the better QB was not the first QB taken.

So that means that, historically, we have a 38% to get the best QB in this draft, if we take one at #2 .

Food for thought.

Bold= HOF or certain HOF.

I thought Neil Lomax with the cardinals was pretty good.. he was the best they had since John Hart.. Injuries ended Lomax's career early.

@hoorta said:

I think that is right...and I think that is smart. Again....my opinion is that none of these QBs have the talent worthy of the #2 overall pick. And in my opinion of the Browns draft one it will be because they are reaching for need.

The one thing I think though that is happening for the Browns this year is that the analytics guys will be taking the emotion out of the draft process....perhaps even overruling Hue Jackson to do so. Emotion got us all these bad picks. Like Zombo said, if we had just stayed put and taken the emotion out of things...that "need" to be proactive and creative and trying to outthink everyone but only outthinking themselves in the process....and taken the best player on the board we could have had the likes of Sammy Watkins, Khalil Mack, David Carr etc.

@the-gipper said:

LOL, around a 30% chance Gip. Let's look at the draft value chart for teams that might want to move up. (just QB needy teams- or potentially needy)

#2 to #1 Browns- 1st, - 3rd & 4th (or next years 2nd)

#4 to #1 Dallas- 1st, 2nd, 3rd + next years 2nd.

#7 to #1 SF 1st, 2nd + next year 1st

#8 to #1 Eagles 1st, 2nd, 3rd + next years 1st

#15 to #1 Rams 1st + two more 1sts

#31 to #1 Broncos 1st, 2nd, next years 1st + Von Miller

MHO- Dallas and the Niners- if they really want a quarterback- will just sit tight, and draft the QB the Browns don't take. Those two are the only teams I'd worry about jumping to #1 overall. Jerrah says he isn't moving up, and the 49ers for the time being have a $11 million qb in Kap.

There's other teams that may want a QB- like Buffalo and Chicago- but in all likelihood, they'll just wait and take Lynch instead of giving up the King's ransom to move to #1. Ditto that for the Rams.

@the-gipper said:

Could you image Hopkins numbers if he ever had a QB in pros to throw to him? (it would be crazy) Mallet & Hoyer. Yuk. Think QB David Carr might have been their Hopkins rookie year only & Hopkins sat behind Andre Johnson?

@gumby73 said:

Not sure I follow you.

1980 Billy Sims#

1981 George Rogers.....James Brooks 5th RB picked

1982 Darrin Nelson.....Marcus Allen 3rd

1983 Eric Dickerson#

1984 Greg Bell.....Ernest Byner 38th RB selected

1985 George Adams.....Herschel Walker #9 (would have been #1 if not for USFL contract)

1986 Bo Jackson...Keith Byars/John Williams/Ronnie Harmon/Neal Anderson all with similar career stats

1987 Alonzo Highsmith....Merrill Hoge 37th pick

1988 Gaston Green....Thurman Thomas 5th pick

1989 Barry Sanders#

1990 Blair Thomas.....Emmit Smith 2d pick

1991 Leornard Russell....Ricky Watters 6th pick

1992 Tommy Vardell...Edgar Bennett 9th pick

1993 Garrison Hearst....Jerome Bettis 2d pick

1994 Marshall Faulk#

1995 Kijana Carger....Curtis Martin 10th pick

1996 Lawrence Phillips.....Eddie George 3rd pick

1997 Warrick Dunn.....Tiki Barber 3rd pick

1998 Curtis Enis....Fred Taylor 2d pick

1999 Edgerrin James #

2000 Jamal Lewis#

2001 LaDanian Tomlinson#

2002 William Green....Brian Westbrook 8th pick

2003 Willis McGahee#

2004 Stephen Jackson#

2005 Ronnie Brown....Frank Gore 6th pick

2006 Reggie Bush.....Maurice Jones-Drew 6th pick

2007 Adrian Peterson#

2008 Darren McFadden....Matt Forte 6th pick

2009 Knowshon Moreno...LeSean McCoy 4th pick

2010 CJ Spiller....Ryan Matthews 2d pick

2011 Marc Ingram....DeMarco Murray 6th pick

2012 Trent Richardson...Doug Martin 2d pick

2013 Giovanni Bernard...Eddy Lacy 4th pick

2014 Bishop Sankey....Jeremy Hill 2d pick

2015 Todd Gurley#....so far.

Notes:

Here, about 10 times out of 35 has the first RB drafted been the best...less than 30%. Perhaps the adage: you can get RBs anywhere does apply......but not that much more than at QB.

1st QB best about 38%

1st WR best about 25%

1st RB best about 28%

Guys like Ernest Byner and Merrill Hoge would have been UFAs in today's system. Can a UFA RB become one of the best? Certainly. Wasn't Adrian Foster UFA? Maybe some hope for The Crow.

But...I think still, if you think there is a stud RB out there, you may want to go all in for him.

But I personally would avoid Alabama RBs....and Penn St. RBs at the top of the draft.

@the-gipper said:

As noted in another thread.....what this particular list may have to take into account is the QBs throwing to these guys. A. Brown, M. Wallace, Burris, etc. had BR at QB. Harrison/Wayne etc. had Peyton. Some had Brady. So there is a factor in this.

@hoorta said:

The Tits want a king's ransom they say to trade for the #1 pick. I heard on the radio that some teams are so hot on Goff that they might be willing to do that. Do you think that could happen?

@the-gipper said:

We'll see Gip if Hue & company view Wentz or Goff as franchise quarterbacks. Our odds are certainly better than reaching for guys like Weeden or Manziel. (I don't think Quinn had the flaws of the previous two, but I just had a strong gut feeling he was seriously going to bust) I like the fact if someone jumps to #1 overall to take a quarterback, we still get a top prospect if we have both of them rated equally.

@the-gipper said:

I haven't changed anything, when I type as an Admin those changes don't apply.

But it still should be Twatwater and Retard for the masses.

Z

Zombo said:

And what happened to Retard for Retard. Gettin's soft on us are you?

Or, do you think that since it appears the Browns are turning a new leaf, that you should do so as well.

For all we know, you are going to give Vagitron and the other Steeler fan vermin on here their real names back.

(err...wait....in the quoted part it does say Retard).

Still....do you want to turn that leaf.

(otherwise I agree with what you say)

@the-gipper said:

Ya, agreed on all.

If they redrafted it would probably go Bortles, Carr, Bridgewater with all of them going in the top half of the first round, Bortles and Carr Top 5 for sure.

The guy we took ahead of Bridgewater AND Carr would go undrafted.

We are Retard. At least we were Retard. Very Recently.

We could have stayed right where we were in that draft, no draft day trades and taken:

#4 Khalil Mack

#26 Derek Carr

and still had the pick for

#35 Joel Bitionio

Instead, we got Gilbert and Manziel, and the Raiders, who were slated one spot behind us, got Mack and Carr

Pro Bowlers Mack and Carr.

It is just criminal how we draft.

It deserves its own 30 for 30 just on our drafts the past five years. It is mind blowing.

Zombo

2015 Amari Cooper # so far

2014 Sammy Watkins....Odell Beckham, 3rd WR picked (or could be too soon to tell)

2013 Tavon Austin....D'Andre Hopkins, 2d pick

2012 Justin Blackmon...Alshon Jeffrey 7th pick

2011 AJ Green/Julio Jones#....These guys picked 1 and 2 have almost identical statistics

2010 Demaryious Thomas.....Antonio Brown 23rd pick WR picked

2009 Darius Heyward-Bey....Mike Wallace 11th

2008 Donnie Aubrey....DeSean Jackson 7th

2007 Calvin Johnson #

2006 SAntonio Holmes...Brandon Marshall 14th

2005 Braylon Edwards...Roddy White 6th

2004 Larry Fitzgerald#

2003 Charles Rogers...Andre Johnson 2d

2002 Donte Stallworth...Deion Branch 11th

2001 David Terrell....Reggie Wayne 6th

2000 Peter Warrick...Plaxico Burris 2d

1999 Tori Holt#

1998 Kevin Dyson....Randy Moss 2d

1997 Ike Hilliard ...Derek Mason 9th

1996 Keyshawn....Marvin Harrison/Terrelle Owens 6th and 12th

1995 Michael Westbrook...Joey Galloway 2d

1994 Charles Johnson....Isaac Bruce 6th

1993 Curtis Conway#

1992 Desmond Howard...Jimmy Smith

1991 Herman Moore#

1990 Alexander Wright....Terence Mathis 17th pick

Only 6-7 of the first WRs taken since 1990 turned out to be the best of their WR class. About 25%. This is worse than QBs.

So...perhaps there are a couple of lessons there for the Browns this season:

A. Taking a WR further down the list may not be all that bad

B. Never take a Michigan receiver as the first WR taken in a draft...Howard, Terrelle, Braylon all flunkies as first WR taken. At least Howard has some decent kick returning skills.

Also note: just because a WR (or QB or anyone else) taken first at their position may not turn out to be the best at their position in their draft class does not mean they are a bust.

Like Sammy Watkins, Demarious Thomas, Santonio Holmes, Keyshawn Johnson. All good...perhaps even outstanding players....just someone else surpassed them.

Though, also there have been plenty of outright busts at the 1st WR position: Charles Rogers, Justin Blackmon, Braylon imo, etc.

Zombo said:

Bridgewater has a better CA....for what that's worth. But by all means I agree with you that if I were picking one of them now for the future I would take Carr over Bridgewater (and why is it that when you type Bridgewater now it comes out right instead of Twatwater?

This is actually one of those too soon to tell cases. Or too close to call cases. Arguable. But I think the basic concept of the first QB taken in a draft of having about a 35-40% chance of being the best QB in a draft still holds.

Though...in some cases it doesn't matter.

You would take either a John Elway #1 taken....or a Dan Marino #6 taken.

And you would want no part really of an EJ Manuel #1 taken or a Geno Smith #2 taken.

As someone said....this exercise is just interesting entertainment.