<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Odds of Busting]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>Here, per my own calculations are the "odds"  or percentage chance that a particular draft slot player in the first round  will bust out. I took these figures going back to the 1970 draft.</p>

<p>Slot/percentage of players that bust out:</p>

<p>#1  30.4%</p>
<p>#2  21.7%</p>
<p>#3  28.2%</p>
<p>#4  28.2%</p>
<p>#5  34.8%</p>
<p>#6  23.9%</p>
<p>#7  45.7%</p>
<p>#8  34.8%</p>
<p>#9  32.6%</p>
<p>#10  32.6%</p>
<p>#11  50.0%</p>
<p>#12  39.1%</p>
<p>#13  30.4%</p>
<p>#14  39.1%</p>
<p>#15  36.9%</p>
<p>#16  45.7%</p>
<p>#17  34.7%</p>
<p>#18  41.3%</p>
<p>#19  36.9%</p>
<p>#20  47.8%</p>
<p>#21  50.0%</p>
<p>#22  50.0%</p>
<p>#23  52.2%</p>
<p>#24  52.2%</p>
<p>#25  54.4%</p>
<p>#26  52.1%</p>
<p>#27  58.6%</p>
<p>#28  58.6%</p>
<p>#29  47.8%</p>
<p>#30  54.3%</p>
<p>#31  56.5%</p>
<p>#32  58.6%</p>

<p>Notice:  You have just as good or better chance of getting a solid to good/great player if you draft #2, 3, 4, 6,13 as you do drafting #1 overall.</p>
<p>Drafting #7 and #11 are bad spots for players busting out. </p>]]></description><link>https://brownsboard.com/topic/40250/odds-of-busting</link><generator>RSS for Node</generator><lastBuildDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2026 18:02:32 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://brownsboard.com/topic/40250.rss" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><pubDate>Tue, 26 Apr 2016 17:01:22 GMT</pubDate><ttl>60</ttl><item><title><![CDATA[Reply to Odds of Busting on Wed, 27 Apr 2016 14:29:36 GMT]]></title><description><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Zombo <a href="/post/599429">said</a>:</p><div>
<p>We single-handedly took #22 to the 50% mark. It would been in the 40's.</p>

<p>Z</p>
</div></blockquote>
<p><span style="color:#800000">Think what #3 would have been if not for us:  Braylon,  TR.....at least we had JT.</span></p>]]></description><link>https://brownsboard.com/post/599654</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://brownsboard.com/post/599654</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[The Gipper]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 27 Apr 2016 14:29:36 GMT</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Reply to Odds of Busting on Wed, 27 Apr 2016 03:16:40 GMT]]></title><description><![CDATA[<blockquote><p><a class="plugin-mentions-user plugin-mentions-a" href="/user/comeonman" aria-label="Profile: comeonman">@<bdi>comeonman</bdi></a> <a href="/post/599550">said</a>:</p><div><p>lmao. 22 is the first spot I looked at after #1</p></div></blockquote>

<p>Me too! LOL</p>
<p>I have no idea how long I'm gonna live, but I'm not sure I could survive another 22nd pick.</p>

<p>Mike</p>]]></description><link>https://brownsboard.com/post/599555</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://brownsboard.com/post/599555</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Canton Mike]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 27 Apr 2016 03:16:40 GMT</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Reply to Odds of Busting on Wed, 27 Apr 2016 02:09:35 GMT]]></title><description><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Zombo <a href="/post/599429">said</a>:</p>
<p>We single-handedly took #22 to the 50% mark. It would been in the 40's.</p>

<p>Z</p>
</blockquote>lmao. 22 is the first spot I looked at after #1]]></description><link>https://brownsboard.com/post/599550</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://brownsboard.com/post/599550</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Comeonman]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 27 Apr 2016 02:09:35 GMT</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Reply to Odds of Busting on Wed, 27 Apr 2016 00:03:02 GMT]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>Jadevon Clowney, Mario Williams, Courtney Brown, Tim Couch, </p>]]></description><link>https://brownsboard.com/post/599523</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://brownsboard.com/post/599523</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Opal312]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 27 Apr 2016 00:03:02 GMT</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Reply to Odds of Busting on Tue, 26 Apr 2016 17:36:44 GMT]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>We single-handedly took #22 to the 50% mark. It would been in the 40's.</p>

<p>Z</p>]]></description><link>https://brownsboard.com/post/599429</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://brownsboard.com/post/599429</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Zombo]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 26 Apr 2016 17:36:44 GMT</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Reply to Odds of Busting on Tue, 26 Apr 2016 17:16:13 GMT]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>Woah, mind blown!</p>

<p>
We just threw out our #1 chance of selecting a non-bust @ #2! LOL</p>]]></description><link>https://brownsboard.com/post/599426</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://brownsboard.com/post/599426</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[PoeticG]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 26 Apr 2016 17:16:13 GMT</pubDate></item></channel></rss>