@vaportrail said:

Bumping this comment of mine along with this video to show even more parallels between establishment shills Hillary and Mitt.

easy to manipulate them to vote for higgardly.

@vaportrail said:

And I'd still argue that demographic is less than the minority vote will be. That graph you show is in Ohio, but what about Florida? What about Colorado? What about VA?

There's no way to outright say one person is right or wrong here, but I believe you are seriously underestimating the minority vote compared to even that poor white vote that might win Ohio or NC.

@tour2ma said:

If you want to believe that those chants are representative of the BLM movement as a whole, then therein lies the end of any GOP minority outreach.

And white supremacy does not represent the entire KKK.

WSS

"Pigs in a blanket...fry em like bacon"

So again I say if the GOP has to cater to a hate group like this that is a bridge too far...the dems can suck up to them..I want nothing to do with them.

@vaportrail said:

Here is why that demographic is so important.

Reuters, IBT showing the Trump tie (+1)

@tour2ma said:

Wisconsin odds are 3:1 HRC... Michigan's are 4:1.

Ipsos had Trump's odds like 53% in Wisconsin or something.

Given how re-tarded or corrupt or both Hillary is, the landslide is very real.

WSS

@oldbrownsfan said:

That the GOP sees BLM as a "hate group" is the reason they cannot reach out.

@bbedward said:

One of the latest polls had Trump polling at just over 20% of African Americans nationwide..

Found one at 20% in Florida, but none nationwide.

@bbedward said:

And Ipsos puts him ahead in Wisconsin, and neck and neck in Michigan. Wisconsin has been blue since the 80s.

The landslide is coming

Wisconsin odds are 3:1 HRC... Michigan's are 4:1.

@tour2ma said:

I'm a Trump supporter, but I'm pretty sure most people here would consider me to be far from right wing. Like I said, he won't need to win college educated if he increases turnout among poor whites. In previous elections, only 25% of impoverished people voted. There are 20 million impoverished whites. I expect Trump to tap into that demographic much like Obama did for blacks.

@vaportrail said:

Ditto on the "saved" part... but not sure it's necessary. Plenty of evidence all over for "I told you so" time... either way.

As for the rest... no, not a lock. Have to get odds a good bit higher than 3:1 for anything to be a lock... at least in my "book".

Debate impact? Always possible one candidate or another will implode spectacularly, but the far more likely outcome will be that each side will see there candidate as having won at least 2 of the 3. The only rising certainty I see is that they will be one-on-one as Johnson's run into double digit support seems to have stalled and reversed.

Assumptions about "silent" voters seem to be all be coming from the right. The rest of us are simply skeptical and see it as a rationalization of the current polls.

"Brexit" was tantamount to an immigrant ban by a country with a limited immigrant experience. Its applicability to the US is tenuous at best.

Poll trends... I will only say that there is a reason moves become trends. Before we would likely resolve any disagreement over their applicability to this atypical election, the election will resolve it.

@jrb12711 said:

If I've said it once I've said it 100 times. Until the GOP realizes old, rich white people will no longer win in this country they will not control the White House.

Yet Trump is having issues retaining the young, college educated, white vote... a demographic that Romney won easily. In fact:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-may-become-the-first-republican-in-60-years-to-lose-white-college-graduates/

The landslide is coming

@vaportrail said:

One of the latest polls had Trump polling at just over 20% of African Americans nationwide..

That would be significantly more than Romney or McCain got

@jrb12711 said:

You're a little late if you think that the GOP is the party for old, rich white people - those folks are the never Trumpers. Trump has hijacked the party and taken all of their favored candidates out of contention. It's not the old, rich white people who are going to give Trump the election; it's the pissed off, poor white people. If he increases the voter turnout in that demographic as much as I think he will, he really will only need marginal gains among minorities, women, and the college educated to get the win.

@oldbrownsfan said:

Give Trump credit for trying at least.

Of course the headlines that run about it are like: "Trump is shamelessly pandering to minorities", "Trump thinks minorities are stupid", or "What can Trump do for minority communites? Nothing"

But the idea that inner city minority communitites have been voting Democrat for 50 years and they're worse off than they ever were is probably the best line of attack Trump can take.

@jrb12711 said:

I said it before (and validated it in this thread) but strong debates on either side just don't matter. People either Hate Trump, Hate Hilldawg, or hate both. There's no inbetween like there often is in other elections, and someone "winning" a debate I seriously doubt will have any impact.

I'm not too sure Brexit and this are the same thing either. Great Britain has a 87% white population, whereas the U.S. is around 63%. You are STRONGLY underestimating (and so has the GOP for over a decade now) what the minority vote means in this country. I know this isn't the best way to do it, but let's assume that even 40% of the white population will vote Trump and 20 some odd % Hillary. What do you honestly think the minority vote will look like, especially in the Hispanic demographic? Black and Hispanic voters my guess will be over 95% for Hillary. That's the type of thing that swings the elections and the reason Obama was two-term president and Hillary will win easily this November.

If I've said it once I've said it 100 times. Until the GOP realizes old, rich white people will no longer win in this country they will not control the White House.

Which really is hilarious because Hillary is bought and paid for and controlled by old rich white people. And beholden to them. She only pandas to the dregs.

WSS

@vaportrail said:

I said it before (and validated it in this thread) but strong debates on either side just don't matter. People either Hate Trump, Hate Hilldawg, or hate both. There's no inbetween like there often is in other elections, and someone "winning" a debate I seriously doubt will have any impact.

I'm not too sure Brexit and this are the same thing either. Great Britain has a 87% white population, whereas the U.S. is around 63%. You are STRONGLY underestimating (and so has the GOP for over a decade now) what the minority vote means in this country. I know this isn't the best way to do it, but let's assume that even 40% of the white population will vote Trump and 20 some odd % Hillary. What do you honestly think the minority vote will look like, especially in the Hispanic demographic? Black and Hispanic voters my guess will be over 95% for Hillary. That's the type of thing that swings the elections and the reason Obama was two-term president and Hillary will win easily this November.

If I've said it once I've said it 100 times. Until the GOP realizes old, rich white people will no longer win in this country they will not control the White House.

@diehardbrownsfan said:

While I believe that Trump is going to win in a landslide, I think that they'd have a solid case against that argument. I just don't think there is enough evidence at this moment to call it a cut and clear hillary victory.