@mjp28 said:

12-8-2016 - The Dow 19,614 another record along with just about every other index plus Europe is also hot.

Overbought, bubble or still crazy room to fly to 20,000?

Oh don't worry there will be a couple rounds of profit-taking. They don't call me the bear for nothing.

WSS

Overbought, bubble or still crazy room to fly to 20,000?

With Fed interest rate increases on the horizon is it time to profit take or go for broke 20,000+.

We'll see how the Trumponomics plans (as they are calling it) work out. Some are good ideas some longer term ones are still uncertain.

@tour2ma said:

Actually more reversal than rest...

Fortunately I bought tech yesterday and put in a couple GT90's for banks waiting for about a 7% pull back to the trend line.

And for the record I know about year-end profit taking... just wanted to know if you thought it would stall this rally.

And interest, dividends and capital gains are pretty much all scheduled and priced into the fourth quarter already. For mutual funds you can go to the mutual funds home and see where your individual stand as far as how much each fund will be paying out, some funds publish that information in their fourth quarter reports.

Short and long term capital gains, the added boost in your year end 401(k), stock or other portfolios.

Fortunately I bought tech yesterday and put in a couple GT90's for banks waiting for about a 7% pull back to the trend line.

And for the record I know about year-end profit taking... just wanted to know if you thought it would stall this rally.

Getting close to the end of year rush to the finish. Dow 19,000+? Could happen, 20,000 next year? Doesn't seem that long since it hit 10,000 for the first time or 6,500 in 2009. I'll wait a month before calling any of those numbers.

@tour2ma said:

Are you saying gain takers will hold the end of year DJIA down?....

Profit taking is normal and will not hold any index down for long unless it's really overpriced or other factors like economic, social or just major uncertainties.

The "Santa Claus Rallies" also tend to bump up the markets if the country is in a buying mood and no other factors like extremely bad weather or again other uncertainties in the market.

Also a newer trend is online shopping which isn't bound by weather or other factors.

The year end capital gains tend to boost things a bit in a strong economy or market.

Remember too fund managers need to boost their returns at the end of the year.

@oldbrownsfan said:

I always believe in using history as a guide to what works and what doesn't work to stimulate an economy. Lower taxes and regulations work. Stimulus and trying to spend your way out of a recession doesn't.

And I have history that says you have it exactly backwards... most of it the same history... excepting the end of the Great Depression which was finally put in our rear view by the greatest government stimulus of all time, WWII, during a period with the highest, top marginal, tax rates of all time. You can't have that one... but you can try to take it, if you like.

http://www.cch.com/WBOT2013/029IncomeTaxRates.asp

If you are truly adverse to the debt, then hold onto Browns' logoed knit cap. You ain't seen nothing yet.

The NASDAQ has been slowed by the techs.

But does Dow 19,000 sounds kind of scary? It will take a bite out of the capital gains buying power at the end of 2016....we'll see.

@mjp28 said:

Thursday 11/10/16 Dow record close 18,807.88 up 218.19, wow super hot, I might wait for a dip.

Banks up again, lead rally.

I saw part of Trump's White House visit, 15 minute visit turned into 90 minutes, he looked a bit "wowed" about the whole thing, no kidding big step from The Apprentice to The World.

Friday 11/11/16

S&P 500: 2,164.45 -0.14%

NASDAQ: 5,237.114 +0.54%

DJIA: 18,847.66 +0.21% <--- yet another small but record close, not far from 19,000 but will be a pullback?

I manuvre much better during dips and down markets record highs are often followed by some corrections. Plus the traders view and traditional buy and hold investors view can be quite different at times.

And there are always opportunities in most any market if you're patient enough....not including those brave enough to try shorting it.

**********************

She had just gotten married and they were getting a house regardless so the $8,000 played no part in that decision to buy when they did. I always believe in using history as a guide to what works and what doesn't work to stimulate an economy. Lower taxes and regulations work. Stimulus and trying to spend your way out of a recession doesn't. We have had the worst economic recovery coming out of a recession since 1949 under Obama's economy. At nearly 20 trillion in debt and climbing and our inability to pay down the national debt I see big problems ahead.

Japan had their economic meltdown in 1990 and tried to spend their way out of recession using stimulus programs and all that did was put them further behind and they still haven't full recovered. The problem they faced is what we will face. When their economy started to improve they would try to pay down the debt and that would put them back in recession.

@oldbrownsfan said:

"Silly" is in the ear of the beholder... and those overseas still have and will have concerns about what Trump said until they see what Trump does... see what was "campaign rhetoric" and what was said with conviction.

Overdone drop? Sure, but again you have to remember that any drop can and will be exploited/exacerbated by those active investors with money... and not just in one direction.

On the $831 billion, not $Trillion, "failed stimulus"... There's much to criticize about it no doubt. I share your concern over the lack of emphasis on infrastructure... only about $100 billion went there with much to those "shovel ready" projects that weren't. Fact is it takes time to gear up projects... even ones that had been in planning prior to the crash because the planners had likely been laid off.

May I ask whether the $8k was significant to your daughter's decision/ability to buy when she did? If it was, then it worked. If it wasn't for whatever reason, but left her with money to spend furnishing and/or renovating her new home... then it worked. ONly one instance... only one person, but ultimately that's how any stimulus works... increasing the spending of one person at a time, but with millions of people in parallel.

@gftchris said:

Given the promised cut in corporation tax rates, it's not surprising to see american business that don't rely on foreign resources or manufacturing to go up. Likewise, it's not surprising to see tech companies not getting the same boost as things like iPhones made in China or wherever will be subject to new higher taxes.

Don't overlook the expected, deep tax discount for US companies to repatriate their foreign profits. More than a few have relocated overseas for the purpose of accessing that cash.

Interesting question will be how many will repatriate how much if the dollar continues to strengthen as it has begun to and Fed rate increases likely continue. Correlation is not absolute, but is strong.

OldBrownsFan, on 09 Nov 2016 - 5:49 PM, said:

@oldbrownsfan said:

Actually my daughter bought her house at a great time a few years ago...low interest rates plus an $8,000 incentive thanks to the Obama (failed) stimulus.

You just can't help yourself can you. Can't wait to gear your thoughts on the coming Trump stimulus.

********************************************

Third gearing my thoughts...just stating a factual story Tour...My daughter bought a house at a great time with an $8,000 gift from Obama from his failed trillion dollar stimulus...probably others cashed in on boondoggles such as the cash for clunkers ...other monies went to shovel ready projects such as bankrupt Solyndra...in the end almost a trillion dollars was spent without much to show for it..it would have been much more productive to have used that trillion dollars solely on infrastructure projects.

OldBrownsFan, on 09 Nov 2016 - 6:08 PM, said:

@oldbrownsfan said:

For all the sky was falling panic when Wall Street realized Trump was going to win and the stock market took a dive...within 24 hours the stocks rebound hundreds of points higher...silly panic attack

It was not "Wall Street" that started the fall... it was international markets who were freaking out. Wall Street simply cashed in on the freak out.

********************************************

You got my point it was a silly panic attack for the markets to freak out over Trump winning the election..

What caught me off guard were the commodity stocks... FCX and VALE, etc. Did not think of them...

@tour2ma said:

Rotation or fear of retribution? Or both?

Oh definitely retribution and uncertainty.

@mjp28 said:

Rotation or fear of retribution? Or both?

@oldbrownsfan said:

You just can't help yourself can you. Can't wait to gear your thoughts on the coming Trump stimulus.

@oldbrownsfan said:

For all the sky was falling panic when Wall Street realized Trump was going to win and the stock market took a dive...within 24 hours the stocks rebound hundreds of points higher...silly panic attack

It was not "Wall Street" that started the fall... it was international markets who were freaking out. Wall Street simply cashed in on the freak out.

@gftchris said:

Some people will be happy because they trade volatility.

Also noteworthy, shares in private prisons jumped a LOT. Like, 40%.

Plus prices on silicone valley stocks again leading the NASDAQ lower while the DOW is at a hot record high. They're calling it the "Trump rally".

@gftchris said:

Good, we need room for the illegals before we deport them.

Banks up again, lead rally.

I saw part of Trump's White House visit, 15 minute visit turned into 90 minutes, he looked a bit "wowed" about the whole thing, no kidding big step from The Apprentice to The World.

@gftchris said:

Some people will be happy because they trade volatility.

Also noteworthy, shares in private prisons jumped a LOT. Like, 40%.

But weed is more legal now

@logicisforsquares said:

A friend works in banking/finance and said people at work were popping champagne. So I don't think it is a financial doomsday.

Some people will be happy because they trade volatility.

Also noteworthy, shares in private prisons jumped a LOT. Like, 40%.