<![CDATA[Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version)]]>This is gonna be a long one.....so be prepared.....as I have lots of time on my hands and love to crunch numbers.....and since this season isnt providing me with the #'s I enjoy, Ive trailed off in another direction.....draft #'s.....

Here's why.....Ive been very outspoken about my dislike of our current draft strategy.....and the premium I keep seeing us place on middle and late round players.....and the completely unrealistic "expectations" we have for middle and late round players....and the high value we place on something like a 4th round pick....

Example...., I honestly have no issue with trading Andy Lee for a 4th.....in fact, 2 - 7th round picks for a 4th is something ID do everyday.....AND that is what I hope the Browns do with all those late round picks.....MOVE UP......STOP taking quantity over quality and reverse that trend ....Zombo points to those picks as currency, which I think should be spend on a few blue chippers, instead of a bunch of late rounders....My only beef is the expectation that we will get a good player with that 4th(and I mean a legit good player).....

Many argue that we have SOOOOOOO many holes to fill, that the quantity is really what we need....trade down and get as many prospects as possible......but "analytics" will show that you cannot and will not build a quality team, if it is flooded with middle and late picks....just wont happen....doesnt happen.....hasnt happened...

Truth is that almost all good players come from the first 3 rounds.....and good players picked after the 3rd round are extremely rare......a quick scan of our team, right now, reveals this about the players Id say are our ten best.....Defense....Haden(1st) , Kirksey(3rd) , Collins(2nd) , Ogbah(2nd) , Shelton(1st)...Offense:...Thomas(1st) , Bitonio(2nd) , Greco(3rd) , Coleman(1st) , Pryor(3rd) and Crow, who is the one exception as udfa......so, its very clear where our best players came from.....the top 3 rounds.

So, seeing this and hoping our FO see's this.....and hearing so much hope for 4th and later picks....year after year(Im guilty too, btw).....I looked back to see EXACTLY how many late picks have succeeded, what percentages of what picks....etc....and our numbers are very close to the leagues numbers, as a whole.....

Ok....as a rule....less than 30% of players drafted have a career....and only about 5% have "very good" or above avg careers......it's a small number.....average success in the first round is 30%.....2nd round is 20%.....3rd round is 15%.....4th and later is less than 10%......history has proven this. Its a lock. So, for every 6th round Tom Brady, there are 3000 guys who didnt make the cut....

And if only 7% of players drafted 4th or later make it, why invest 20 picks in these guys?....cause that will only net us 1...maybe 2 good players......and to invest 2 years of guaranteed garbage football, just to weed through all these players, looking for "a" gem or two, seems wasteful.....almost like buying lottery tickets for your retirement plan.....and thinking the more you buy, the better you'll do.....

So.....Ive spend "too long" pounding the Browns past drafts and have broken it out for you.....here are the REAL numbers from the past 45 years......1970 through 2015......Cleveland Browns.....drafts

My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)

1970-79 4th & later

141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......

Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)

Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate

1980-89 4th & later

97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......

Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)

Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....

1990-99 4th & later

58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...

Starter: Burnett(5)

Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....

2000-10 4th & later

54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...

Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)

Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....

2011-15 4th & later

24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...

Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...

Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....

summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks

374 drafts picks made........

16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....

........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...

358 players were not successful.....

So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)

and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....

So....in the end.....with these numbers staring you in the face.....and a fact......is this years and last years collection of 4th and later picks still exciting?......

Is flooding our roster with these guys the answer to building a core? or is it just a good way to fill our special teams and back up roster?

do the analytics from above indicate that our path to success is to come from hoarding 4th and later pics?

I have 1st and 3rd round #'s too....but thats for later......

All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....

]]>https://brownsboard.com/topic/44937/anatomy-of-a-browns-draft-pick-long-versionRSS for NodeThu, 01 Oct 2026 06:06:01 GMTSun, 20 Nov 2016 16:06:43 GMT60<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Sun, 27 Nov 2016 15:48:01 GMT]]>

@mudfly said:

My theory is that todays media and FO's have better tools to find & rank the good players.....

In the last 20-30 years, draft prep has come a looooooooooong way, as has the player evaluation process......

And with the Mel Kipers, PFF's, analytics and vast amounts of information available....it just leaves much less room for sleepers and surprises.....

Makes sense... and then there's the Combine...

Even if their evaluations vary widely, players get noticed today that slipped thru cracks previously.

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/657870https://brownsboard.com/post/657870Sun, 27 Nov 2016 15:48:01 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Sun, 27 Nov 2016 15:32:03 GMT]]>

@flyingfooldoug said:

OK, with all the tools available to pick talent, how many of our rookies would have been kept by any other team? I've seen a flash here and there, plus inexperience but haven't really seen signs of improvement. Maybe I'm missing something but 0-11 without improvement in play pretty much says it all.

Cant disagree with you.....but, if you're following....the tools dont guarantee you make quality picks.....they just diminish the likelihood that a star quality player gets missed and falls into the later rounds.....

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/657861https://brownsboard.com/post/657861Sun, 27 Nov 2016 15:32:03 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Sun, 27 Nov 2016 13:09:35 GMT]]>OK, with all the tools available to pick talent, how many of our rookies would have been kept by any other team? I've seen a flash here and there, plus inexperience but haven't really seen signs of improvement. Maybe I'm missing something but 0-11 without improvement in play pretty much says it all.

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/657836https://brownsboard.com/post/657836Sun, 27 Nov 2016 13:09:35 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Fri, 25 Nov 2016 15:17:17 GMT]]>

@tour2ma said:

Good discussion...

I am left wondering if today's college game:

  • still produces the kind of late round talent it did in the 80's... in either quantity or quality; and/or

My theory is that todays media and FO's have better tools to find & rank the good players.....

In the last 20-30 years, draft prep has come a looooooooooong way, as has the player evaluation process......

And with the Mel Kipers, PFF's, analytics and vast amounts of information available....it just leaves much less room for sleepers and surprises.....

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/657441https://brownsboard.com/post/657441Fri, 25 Nov 2016 15:17:17 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Fri, 25 Nov 2016 15:11:43 GMT]]>Good discussion...

I am left wondering if today's college game:

  • still produces the kind of late round talent it did in the 80's... in either quantity or quality; and/or
  • "talent" no longer translates to the pro level as the college and pro games so much more different today.

Long discussed when it comes to QBs; discussed but less so with OL. Very little discussion of impact on RBs and WRs, but I'm starting to feel more and more that it's not a minor factor there either.

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/657436https://brownsboard.com/post/657436Fri, 25 Nov 2016 15:11:43 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Thu, 24 Nov 2016 19:36:09 GMT]]>

@mudfly said:

Good post Flugel.....and, Id agree, that that 80's team had some late round help(as almost ALL teams do)....but, as the OP points out....the KEY players and the ones who made the team great were mostly our higher picks....

Ozzy - Mathews - Kosar - Pruitt - Mack - Johnson - Slaughter - Dixon - Banks - Minnefield.....

and a few FA's....cause many of those guys you listed were obtained from other teams - not drafted by the Browns...(Farren, Fike, Fontenot, Hairston, Golic, Bahr, Minnefield, Mack, Johnson, Wright, etc etc)

These are the guys who made it a great team.......

And without the advent of the supplemental/USFL rounds.....we would never have obtained this talent through conventional means,,,,because we would have never gotten Kosar, Minnefield, Johnson, Mack or the Cube.....

So.....if we are gonna win with late picks and UDFA's.....lets hope we obtain a few proven ones through Free agency.....ala something like a Barnidge or Bryant.....and not depend on finding diamonds in the rough(cause there are very very few of them)....and this FO thinks they'll be the ones to find them, but based upon this past draft, Im not convinced they will.....at all....

Thanks Mud! Good points.

To your point about the key play makers you specified that made this team what it was via high round picks - it sure helped when we could draft very efficient keepers on the offensive line at the same time like Farren in round 12, Williams in round 10, Risien in round 7 and Baab in round 5. Fike came over from the Jets who drafted him in round 10. That frees up earlier rounds for the Hanford Dixons, Chip Banks, Webster Slaughters and whatever early-mid round values we swapped out in order to draft Bernie Kosar, Kevin Mack, Mike Johnson, and Gerald McNeil.

Another thing we need to remember is that rosters were bigger in the 70s and 80s while free agency didn't threaten teams from losing key veterans as frequently as it seems to today. This way they could plan around being patient for late round guys to develop such as keeping a 13th round QB like Brian Sipe around from 1972 until he was ready to start full time 4-5 years later. Pittsburgh used to draft their future Pro Bowl LBers like Joey Porter, Greg Lloyd, Jason Gildon in mid-later rounds (while James Harrison was undrafted) while they could be patient training them for a complicated zone blitz scheme behind a productive vet. Today, they're drafting more LBers in round 1 such as Shazier, Dupree, Timmons, and Jones with the understanding they can no longer afford to wait 2-3 years patiently before getting 3 years of productivity. It's all about get the impact now.

I'm with you about trading some mid-late round volume for greater impact in earlier rounds. Let's hope the first draft of this regime showed our front office this should be a good idea moving forward. Who knows, maybe their plan last year was to do just that this coming draft.

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/657364https://brownsboard.com/post/657364Thu, 24 Nov 2016 19:36:09 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Thu, 24 Nov 2016 14:40:47 GMT]]>Good post Flugel.....and, Id agree, that that 80's team had some late round help(as almost ALL teams do)....but, as the OP points out....the KEY players and the ones who made the team great were mostly our higher picks....

Ozzy - Mathews - Kosar - Pruitt - Mack - Johnson - Slaughter - Dixon - Banks - Minnefield.....

and a few FA's....cause many of those guys you listed were obtained from other teams - not drafted by the Browns...(Farren, Fike, Fontenot, Hairston, Golic, Bahr, Minnefield, Mack, Johnson, Wright, etc etc)

These are the guys who made it a great team.......

And without the advent of the supplemental/USFL rounds.....we would never have obtained this talent through conventional means,,,,because we would have never gotten Kosar, Minnefield, Johnson, Mack or the Cube.....

So.....if we are gonna win with late picks and UDFA's.....lets hope we obtain a few proven ones through Free agency.....ala something like a Barnidge or Bryant.....and not depend on finding diamonds in the rough(cause there are very very few of them)....and this FO thinks they'll be the ones to find them, but based upon this past draft, Im not convinced they will.....at all....

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/657297https://brownsboard.com/post/657297Thu, 24 Nov 2016 14:40:47 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Thu, 24 Nov 2016 18:08:35 GMT]]>In 1978, the Browns drafted Clay Matthews and Ozzie Newsome in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. IMO, this was the best 1st round of my tenure as a Diehard. These 2 guys quickly morphed into very productive players that helped this franchise frequent playoffs throughout the 80s. 1 guy was versatile enough to play any of 4 different LBer positions in our 34 when/if needed. When asked who was the toughest guy on our defense, former Buffalo/Cleveland OG Joe DeLamielleure said without hesitation "Clay Matthews. He is one of the toughest son of a bitches I've ever faced." Not to be out-praised, Bear Bryant called Ozzie "the greatest end in Alabama history and that includes Don Hutson. A total team player, fine blocker, outstanding leader, great receiver with concentration, speed, hands." As we know, Ozzie is in the NFL Hall of Fame while Clay is hoping to be inducted into it sometime soon. What ever happened to NOT overthinking the 1st round?

In 1986, the Browns finished the regular season with a 12-4 record. You are about to see a cut and paste of this roster and starting line-up from pro football reference showing when and where all the guys were drafted. As you'll see, drafts used to go 12 rounds in comparison to just 7 rounds today. We also had great fortunes with the 1984 USFL Supplemental Draft as well as the 1985 Supplemental Draft (that expanded our volume of 1st round picks). What jumps out at me is the earliest any of our starting offensive linemen needed to be drafted by Cleveland's front office or a previous team was in round 5 (w/ Baab) while Williams, Farren and Fike went late enough to be undrafted free agents today. Most of the offensive linemen we've drafted after round 2 since 99 haven't been able make themselves long time starters so I hate to think this can't ever change.

Before we get to the starters - here's some situational players that really made the most of their time on the field:

Brian Brennan WR - led team with 55 receptions for 838 yards and 6 TDs mostly on 3rd down (4th round pick)

Herman Fontenot RB - gave us 47 receptions for 559 yards and 1 TD almost exclusively on 3rd down (Undrafted)

Earnest Byner RB - contributed 277 yards rushing with 2 TDs and caught 37 passes for 328 yards and 2 TDs (10th round pick)

David Puzzuoli NT - backup gave us 6 sacks (6th round pick)

Sam Clancy DE - back up added 6.5 sacks (11th round pick by Seattle)

Offensive Starters

QB Bernie Kosar 23 1 16 310 for 531, 3,854 yards, 17 td, 10 int, & 24 rushes for 19 yards and 0 td Cleveland Browns / 1st / 1st pick / 1985 Supp

RB Curtis Dickey 30 6 10 135 rushes for 523 yards, 6 td, & 10 catches for 78 yards and 0 td Baltimore Colts / 1st / 5th pick / 1980

FB Kevin Mack 24 1 12 174 rushes for 665 yards, 10 td, & 28 catches for 292 yards and 0 td Cleveland Browns / 1st / 11th pick / 1984 Supp

WR Reggie Langhorne 23 1 15 39 catches for 678 yards, 1 td, & 1 rush for -11 yards and 0 td Cleveland Browns / 7th / 175th pick / 1985

WR Webster Slaughter 22 Rook 16 40 catches for 577 yards, 4 td, & 1 rush for 1 yards and 0 td Cleveland Browns / 2nd / 43rd pick / 1986

TE Ozzie Newsome 30 8 16 39 catches for 417 yards, 3 td Cleveland Browns / 1st / 23rd pick / 1978

LT Paul Farren 26 3 16 Cleveland Browns / 12th / 316th pick / 1983

LG Larry Williams 23 Rook 11 Cleveland Browns / 10th / 259th pick / 1985

C Mike Baab 27 4 16 Cleveland Browns / 5th / 115th pick / 1982

RG Dan Fike 25 1 16 1 fumble recovered New York Jets / 10th / 274th pick / 1983

RT Cody Risien* 29 7 16 2 fumbles recovered Cleveland Browns / 7th / 183rd pick / 1979

Defensive Starters

LDE Reggie Camp 25 3 16 7.0 sacks, 0 interceptions, 0 fumbles recovered Cleveland Browns / 3rd / 68th pick / 1983

NT Bob Golic* 29 7 16 New England Patriots / 2nd / 52nd pick / 1979

RDE Carl Hairston 34 10 16 9.0 sacks, 0 interceptions, 1 fumble recovered Philadelphia Eagles / 7th / 191st pick / 1976

LOLB Chip Banks* 27 4 16 4.5 sacks, 0 interceptions, 2 fumbles recovered Cleveland Browns / 1st / 3rd pick / 1982

LILB Eddie Johnson 27 5 16 Cleveland Browns / 7th / 187th pick / 1981

RILB Anthony Griggs 26 4 15 0.0 sacks, 0 interceptions, 1 fumble recovered Philadelphia Eagles / 4th / 105th pick / 1982

ROLB Clay Matthews 30 8 16 1.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, 0 fumbles recovered Cleveland Browns / 1st / 12th pick / 1978

LCB Frank Minnifield* 26 2 15 0.0 sacks, 3 interceptions, 2 fumbles recovered

RCB Hanford Dixon*+ 28 5 16 0.0 sacks, 5 interceptions, 2 fumbles recovered Cleveland Browns / 1st / 22nd pick / 1981

SS Ray Ellis 27 5 15 1.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, 0 fumbles recovered Philadelphia Eagles / 12th / 331st pick / 1981

FS Chris Rockins 24 2 16 0.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, 3 fumbles recovered Cleveland Browns / 2nd / 48th pick / 1984

Special Teams Starters

K Matt Bahr 30 7 0 20 of 26 field goals & 30 of 30 extra points Pittsburgh Steelers / 6th / 165th pick / 1979

P Jeff Gossett 29 5 0 83 punts for a 41.2 average, 0 blocked

PR/KR Gerald McNeil 24 Rook 0 40 punt returns for a 8.7 average and 1 td & 47 kick returns for a 21.2 average and 1 td Cleveland Browns / 2nd / 44th pick / 1984 Supp

Roster

No. Player Age Pos G GS Wt Ht College/Univ BirthDate Yrs AV Drafted (tm/rnd/yr)
61 Mike Baab 27 C 16 16 270 6-4 Texas 12/6/1959 4 9 Cleveland Browns / 5th / 115th pick / 1982
9 Matt Bahr 30 K 12 0 175 5-10 Penn St. 7/6/1956 7 2 Pittsburgh Steelers / 6th / 165th pick / 1979
43 Tony Baker 22 2 0 182 5-10 East Carolina 6/11/1964 Rook 0 Atlanta Falcons / 10th / 252nd pick / 1986
56 Chip Banks* 27 LOLB 16 16 243 6-4 USC 9/18/1959 4 10 Cleveland Browns / 1st / 3rd pick / 1982
77 Rickey Bolden 25 lt 7 5 274 6-6 SMU 9/8/1961 2 3 Cleveland Browns / 4th / 96th pick / 1984
86 Brian Brennan 24 16 0 178 5-9 Boston Col. 2/15/1962 2 8 Cleveland Browns / 4th / 104th pick / 1984
44 Earnest Byner 24 rb 7 7 215 5-10 East Carolina 9/15/1962 2 5 Cleveland Browns / 10th / 280th pick / 1984
96 Reggie Camp 25 LDE 16 16 274 6-4 California 2/28/1961 3 7 Cleveland Browns / 3rd / 68th pick / 1983
91 Sam Clancy 28 de 16 1 288 6-7 Pittsburgh 5/29/1958 3 2 Seattle Seahawks / 11th / 284th pick / 1982
75 Bill Contz 25 1 0 268 6-5 Penn St. 12/12/1961 3 0 Cleveland Browns / 5th / 122nd pick / 1983
38 Johnny Davis 30 6 0 235 6-1 Alabama 7/17/1956 8 0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers / 2nd / 30th pick / 1978
33 Curtis Dickey 30 RB 14 10 213 6-1 Texas A&M 11/27/1956 6 5 Baltimore Colts / 1st / 5th pick / 1980
29 Hanford Dixon*+ 28 RCB 16 16 186 5-11 Southern Miss 12/25/1958 5 14 Cleveland Browns / 1st / 22nd pick / 1981
24 Ray Ellis 27 SS 15 15 192 6-1 Ohio St. 4/27/1959 5 5 Philadelphia Eagles / 12th / 331st pick / 1981
39 Major Everett 26 9 0 215 5-10 Mississippi Col. 1/4/1960 3 0
74 Paul Farren 26 LG 16 16 272 6-5 Boston Univ. 12/24/1960 3 9 Cleveland Browns / 12th / 316th pick / 1983
69 Dan Fike 25 RG 16 16 280 6-7 Florida 6/16/1961 1 9 New York Jets / 10th / 274th pick / 1983
28 Herman Fontenot 23 rb 16 3 206 6-0 LSU 9/12/1963 1 6
79 Bob Golic* 29 NT 16 16 264 6-2 Notre Dame 10/26/1957 7 10 New England Patriots / 2nd / 52nd pick / 1979
7 Jeff Gossett 29 P 16 0 200 6-2 East. Illinois 1/25/1957 5 3
80 Terry Greer 29 wr 11 1 192 6-1 Alabama St. 9/27/1957 Rook 0 Los Angeles Rams / 11th / 304th pick / 1980
53 Anthony Griggs 26 RILB 16 15 227 6-3 Villanova,Ohio St. 2/12/1960 4 7 Philadelphia Eagles / 4th / 105th pick / 1982
27 Al Gross 25 db 4 1 191 6-3 Arizona 1/4/1961 3 1 Dallas Cowboys / 9th / 246th pick / 1983
78 Carl Hairston 34 RDE 16 16 260 6-3 Md-Eastern Shore 12/15/1952 10 8 Philadelphia Eagles / 7th / 191st pick / 1976
23 Mark Harper 25 db 16 1 174 5-9 Alcorn St. 11/5/1961 Rook 2
48 D.D. Hoggard 25 16 0 188 6-0 North Carolina St. 5/20/1961 1 1
81 Harry Holt 29 14 0 236 6-4 Arizona 12/29/1957 3 1
51 Eddie Johnson 27 LILB 16 16 220 6-1 Louisville 2/3/1959 5 7 Cleveland Browns / 7th / 187th pick / 1981
59 Mike Johnson 24 16 0 230 6-1 Virginia Tech 11/26/1962 Rook 2 Cleveland Browns / 1st / 18th pick / 1984 Supp
19 Bernie Kosar 23 QB 16 16 210 6-5 Miami (FL) 11/25/1963 1 13 Cleveland Browns / 1st / 1st pick / 1985 Supp
88 Reggie Langhorne 23 WR 16 15 200 6-2 Elizabeth City St. 4/7/1963 1 6 Cleveland Browns / 7th / 175th pick / 1985
62 George Lilja 28 16 0 264 6-4 Michigan 3/3/1958 4 2 Los Angeles Rams / 4th / 104th pick / 1981
34 Kevin Mack 24 FB 12 12 224 6-0 Clemson 8/9/1962 1 8 Cleveland Browns / 1st / 11th pick / 1984 Supp
90 Ralph Malone 22 16 0 225 6-5 Georgia Tech 1/12/1964 Rook 1
57 Clay Matthews 30 ROLB 16 16 245 6-2 USC 3/15/1956 8 7 Cleveland Browns / 1st / 12th pick / 1978
89 Gerald McNeil 24 KR 16 0 145 5-7 Baylor 3/27/1962 Rook 2 Cleveland Browns / 2nd / 44th pick / 1984 Supp
31 Frank Minnifield* 26 LCB 15 15 180 5-9 Louisville 1/1/1960 2 8
3 Mark Moseley 38 4 0 202 5-11 Texas A&M,S.F. Austin 3/12/1948 16 1 Philadelphia Eagles / 14th / 346th pick / 1970
82 Ozzie Newsome 30 TE 16 16 232 6-2 Alabama 3/16/1956 8 4 Cleveland Browns / 1st / 23rd pick / 1978
58 Scott Nicolas 26 16 0 226 6-3 Miami (FL) 8/7/1960 4 1 Cleveland Browns / 12th / 310th pick / 1982
10 Mike Pagel 26 1 0 206 6-2 Arizona St. 9/13/1960 4 0 Baltimore Colts / 4th / 84th pick / 1982
72 Dave Puzzuoli 25 16 0 260 6-3 Pittsburgh 1/12/1961 3 2 Cleveland Browns / 6th / 149th pick / 1983
63 Cody Risien* 29 RT 16 16 269 6-7 Texas A&M 3/22/1957 7 12 Cleveland Browns / 7th / 183rd pick / 1979
37 Chris Rockins 24 FS 16 16 195 6-0 Oklahoma St. 5/18/1962 2 6 Cleveland Browns / 2nd / 48th pick / 1984
5 Webster Slaughter 22 WR 16 16 175 6-1 San Diego St. 10/19/1964 Rook 6 Cleveland Browns / 2nd / 43rd pick / 1986
87 Travis Tucker 23 16 0 234 6-3 Southern Connecticut St. 9/19/1963 1 0 Cleveland Browns / 11th / 287th pick / 1985
50 Brad Van Pelt 35 16 0 235 6-5 Michigan St. 4/5/1951 13 1 New York Giants / 2nd / 40th pick / 1973
85 Clarence Weathers 24 16 0 170 5-9 Delaware St. 1/10/1962 3 1
70 Larry Williams 23 LG 16 11 292 6-5 Notre Dame 7/3/1963 Rook 7 Cleveland Browns / 10th / 259th pick / 1985
60 Jeff Wiska 27 1 0 265 6-3 Michigan St. 10/17/1959 Rook 0 New York Giants / 7th / 186th pick / 1982
22 Felix Wright 27 16 0 190 6-2 Drake 6/22/1959
]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/657264https://brownsboard.com/post/657264Thu, 24 Nov 2016 18:08:35 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Tue, 22 Nov 2016 15:58:09 GMT]]>

@mudfly said:

This is gonna be a long one.....so be prepared.....as I have lots of time on my hands and love to crunch numbers.....and since this season isnt providing me with the #'s I enjoy, Ive trailed off in another direction.....draft #'s.....

Here's why.....Ive been very outspoken about my dislike of our current draft strategy.....and the premium I keep seeing us place on middle and late round players.....and the completely unrealistic "expectations" we have for middle and late round players....and the high value we place on something like a 4th round pick....

Example...., I honestly have no issue with trading Andy Lee for a 4th.....in fact, 2 - 7th round picks for a 4th is something ID do everyday.....AND that is what I hope the Browns do with all those late round picks.....MOVE UP......STOP taking quantity over quality and reverse that trend ....Zombo points to those picks as currency, which I think should be spend on a few blue chippers, instead of a bunch of late rounders....My only beef is the expectation that we will get a good player with that 4th(and I mean a legit good player).....

Many argue that we have SOOOOOOO many holes to fill, that the quantity is really what we need....trade down and get as many prospects as possible......but "analytics" will show that you cannot and will not build a quality team, if it is flooded with middle and late picks....just wont happen....doesnt happen.....hasnt happened...

Truth is that almost all good players come from the first 3 rounds.....and good players picked after the 3rd round are extremely rare......a quick scan of our team, right now, reveals this about the players Id say are our ten best.....Defense....Haden(1st) , Kirksey(3rd) , Collins(2nd) , Ogbah(2nd) , Shelton(1st)...Offense:...Thomas(1st) , Bitonio(2nd) , Greco(3rd) , Coleman(1st) , Pryor(3rd) and Crow, who is the one exception as udfa......so, its very clear where our best players came from.....the top 3 rounds.

So, seeing this and hoping our FO see's this.....and hearing so much hope for 4th and later picks....year after year(Im guilty too, btw).....I looked back to see EXACTLY how many late picks have succeeded, what percentages of what picks....etc....and our numbers are very close to the leagues numbers, as a whole.....

Ok....as a rule....less than 30% of players drafted have a career....and only about 5% have "very good" or above avg careers......it's a small number.....average success in the first round is 30%.....2nd round is 20%.....3rd round is 15%.....4th and later is less than 10%......history has proven this. Its a lock. So, for every 6th round Tom Brady, there are 3000 guys who didnt make the cut....

And if only 7% of players drafted 4th or later make it, why invest 20 picks in these guys?....cause that will only net us 1...maybe 2 good players......and to invest 2 years of guaranteed garbage football, just to weed through all these players, looking for "a" gem or two, seems wasteful.....almost like buying lottery tickets for your retirement plan.....and thinking the more you buy, the better you'll do.....

So.....Ive spend "too long" pounding the Browns past drafts and have broken it out for you.....here are the REAL numbers from the past 45 years......1970 through 2015......Cleveland Browns.....drafts

My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)

1970-79 4th & later

141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......

Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)

Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate

1980-89 4th & later

97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......

Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)

Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....

1990-99 4th & later

58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...

Starter: Burnett(5)

Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....

2000-10 4th & later

54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...

Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)

Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....

2011-15 4th & later

24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...

Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...

Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....

summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks

374 drafts picks made........

16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....

........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...

358 players were not successful.....

So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)

and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....

So....in the end.....with these numbers staring you in the face.....and a fact......is this years and last years collection of 4th and later picks still exciting?......

Is flooding our roster with these guys the answer to building a core? or is it just a good way to fill our special teams and back up roster?

do the analytics from above indicate that our path to success is to come from hoarding 4th and later pics?

I have 1st and 3rd round #'s too....but thats for later......

All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....

Good post,and you and the Browns brass might not be far off.

I think last year was about collecting bodies. And collecting draft picks. Now you can go after stars. We far and away have the most draft currency for the next several years, so we WILL get the players we want. Let's pray to good they are winners.

Zombo

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656893https://brownsboard.com/post/656893Tue, 22 Nov 2016 15:58:09 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Tue, 22 Nov 2016 03:53:37 GMT]]>The only useful late-round pick I can think of on the Browns right now?

The Paz, UDFA.

I completely agree.. if Sashi doesn't have anything to do after drafting 7 players before the end of the second day [the third round] then IMHO we had a good 2017 draft.

Is there anyone silly enough to take 4th, 5th round picks to let us move into the 3rd or higher? I'm looking at you, Jacksonville and SanFran and Miami! Let's find out.

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656830https://brownsboard.com/post/656830Tue, 22 Nov 2016 03:53:37 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 23:23:24 GMT]]>

@tour2ma said:

And there it is... trading two #2's for a #1 is not a good deal from an odds perspective... and have to remember that a next year #1 is valued like a #2. The odds make a case for trade downs, not trade ups

Ive never minded trade downs, within reason.....what I dont want to do....ever.....is trade out of the top 10......last draft I was up for a trade back, but no further than 8, as I felt thats where the drop off was.....

I also dont want to dilute our picks for average picks.....so to give up #1 and end up with a 16 and 20 is not my idea of a good trade.....

My main point on this thread is to use later picks to either get more top 100 picks.....or improve our position with the 5 we have.....simple....

The fly in the ointment? The two outcomes are not truly independent since the decisions come from the same source. But whether you think this FO increases or decreases our odds of success vs. the league norm, that opinion impacts the odds in all rounds. So it impacts the input to the statistical assessment, not the math behind it.

Havent drawn a final conclusion here, but ...so far....have nothing to indicate this FO is better than past FO's......and a number of things to indicate it isnt...

And as I put forth in a thread a week or two ago about "Browns' 2016 Draft Busts", there may be some "Incompletes" on our new FO's report card, but on a simple Pass/Fail scale, there are no "F's"... at least not yet in public view.

Too early to declare a bust(F).....but there are a number of zero contributors(thats Z.E.R.O.).....and a number of extra average performers who are not progressing well.....and a regressor or 2.....

So...in a year that is committed to developing youth, anyone NOT playing or contributing has to be considered on the edge...cause if you dont get to play when there is not competition or talent, then when WILL you play???......these potential "F" players include Shon Coleman, Payton, Higgins, Caldwell, Wright, Louis.....and, if he's only a back up, then Kessler in the third is kind of a bust too.....which leaves Nassib(invisible since game #1), Devalve(2catches), Schobert (already demoted from starter for a udfa we already cut)...

So 14 picks......no "F" 's yet......but no A's either......and only 2 who look even close to legit(and one of em keeps dropping passes)

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656713https://brownsboard.com/post/656713Mon, 21 Nov 2016 23:23:24 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 23:49:12 GMT]]>A lot of excellent points Mud!

Sorry I butchered the USFL stuff calling them Free Agents. They were all supplemental draft picks back when drafts went 12 rounds so it never hurt us to pull the trigger on the perceived impact like Mack at the expense of losing future picks that may or may not pan out. Very similar to this year's situation in terms of having a lot of picks and choosing perceived impact over much more maybes. As I've already said in both of my previous posts in this thread - this is growing on me big time.

Because of how hurried and sloppy I was last night - here's a cut and paste of what I just found online about our drafts from 84-89. In particular, it shows a lot of success with the type of ideology you're hoping our current front office adopts:

1984

1 Rogers, Don S UCLA

2a Rockins, Chris S Oklahoma State choice acquired from LA Rams for negotiating rights to WR Ron Brown

2b Davis, Bruce WR Baylor

3 Browns' choice traded to Buffalo along with Browns' 1st choice in 1983 and 5th choice in 1985 for LB Tom Cousineau

4a Bolden, Rickey TE Southern Methodist choice acquired from Denver for WR Dave Logan

4b Brennan, Brian WR Boston College

5 Piepkorn, Dave T North Dakota State

6 Nugent, Terry QB Colorado State

7 Dumont, Jim LB Rutgers

8 Browns' choice traded to N.Y. Jets for WR Bobby Jones

9a Jones, Don WR Texas A&M choice acquired from Philadelphia for LB Bill Cowher;

9b Browns' choice traded to Chicago along with Browns' 10th, 11th and 12th round choices in 1984 for Bears' three picks in June, 1984 supplemental draft of players under contract to another league

10a Browns' choice traded to Chicago, see 9b

10b Byner, Earnest RB East Carolina choice acquired from LA Raiders for G-T Henry Sheppard

11 Browns' choice traded to Chicago, see 9b 12 Browns' choice traded to Chicago, see 9b

1984 Supplemental Draft

1a Mack, Kevin RB Clemson choice acquired from Chicago for Browns' 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th round choices in 1984 NFL Draft

1b Johnson, Mike LB Virginia Tech

2a McNeil, Gerald WR Baylor Choice acquired from Chicago, see 1a

2b Robison, Tommy T Texas A&M

3a West, Doug LB UCLA choice acquired from Chicago, see 1a

3b Bond, John QB Mississippi State

1985

1 Browns' choice traded to Buffalo along with 1st choice in 1986, 3rd in 1985, and a 6th in 1986 for Buffalo's first pick in 1985 supplemental draft

2 Allen, Greg RB Florida State

3 Browns' choice traded to Buffalo, see 1

4 Browns' choice traded to Miami for WR Duriel Harris

5 Browns' choice traded to Buffalo along with Browns' 1st in 1983 and 3rd in 1984 for LB Tom Cousineau

6 Krerowicz, Mark G Ohio State

7 Langhorne, Reggie WR Elizabeth City

8 Banks, Fred WR Liberty Baptist

9 Browns' choice traded to Philadelphia for DE Carl Hairston

10 Williams, Larry G Notre Dame

11 Tucker, Travis TE S. Connecticut State

12 Swanson, Shane WR Nebraska

1985 Supplemental Draft

1 Kosar, Bernie QB Miami choice acquired from Buffalo for 1st in 1985 and 1986, 3rd in 1985 and 6th in 1986

1986

1 Browns' choice traded to Buffalo along with 1st choice in 1985 3rd in 1985 and a 6th in '86 for Buffalo's first pick in 1985 supplemental draft

2 Slaughter, Webster WR San Diego State

3 Browns' choice traded to Detroit for QB Gary Danielson

4 Browns' choice traded to LA Rams for WR Terry Greer

5 Miller, Nick LB Arkansas

6 Browns' choice traded to Buffalo, see 1

7a Meyer, Jim T Illinois State

7b Norseth, Mike QB Kansas choice acquired from Kansas City for RB Boyce Green

8 Browns' choice traded to Philadelphia for LB Anthony Griggs

9 Taylor, Danny DB Texas (El Paso)

10 Smith, Willie TE Miami

11 Dausin, Randy G Texas A&M

12 Simmons, King CB Texas Tech

1987

1 Junkin, Mike LB Duke choice acquired from San Diego, along with San Diego's second 1987 choice in exchange for Browns' 1987 first and second round choices and LB-Chip Banks

2 Rakoczy, Gregg OT/C Miami choice acquired from San Diego, see round 1

3a Manoa, Tim FB Penn State

3b Jaeger, Jeff K Washington choice acquired from LA Rams in exchange for Browns' 1987 4th, 5th and 12th round picks

4 Browns' choice to LA Rams, see 3b

5 Browns' choice to LA Rams, see 3b

6 Braggs, Stephen DB Texas

7 Browns' choice to Green Bay for WR-John Jefferson

8 Bullitt, Steve LB Texas A&M

9 Browns' choice to Indianapolis for QB-Mike Pagel

10 Winters, Frank C Western Illinois

11 Brewton, Larry DB Temple

12 Browns' choice to LA Rams, see 3b

1988

1 Charlton, Clifford LB Florida [21st overall]

2 Perry, Michael Dean DL Clemson [50th]

3 Waiters, Van LB Indiana [77th]

4 Blaylock, Anthony CB Winston-Salem [103rd]

5 Browns' choice traded to Phoenix for DE AI Baker

6 Browns' choice traded to Philadelphia along with CB D.D. Hoggard for DL Chris Pike;

7 Gash, Thane S East Tennessee State [188th]

8 Birden, J.J. WR Oregon [216th]

9 Copeland, Danny S Eastern Kentucky [244th]

10 Washington, Brian S Nebraska [272nd]

11 Hawkins, Hendley WR Nebraska [300th]

12 Slayden, Steve QB Duke [328th]

1989

1 Metcalf, Eric RB Texas choice acquired from Denver for Browns' 1989 1st, 2nd, 5th and 9th [13th overall]

2 Tillman, Lawyer WR Auburn choice acquired from Green Bay along with Green Bay's 1989 5th for Browns' 1989 3rd, 1989 5th, 1990 1st and RB Herman Fontenot [31st]

3 Browns' choice to Green Bay - see round 2

4 Stewart, Andrew DE Cincinnati [107th]

5a Kramer, Kyle S Bowling Green choice acquired from Green Bay - see round two [114th]

5b Joines, Vernon WR Maryland choice acquired from Kansas City for LB Mike Junkin [116th]

6 Wilkerson, Gary CB Penn State [160th]

7 Graybill, Mike OT Boston University [187th]

8 Aeilts, Rick TE S.E. Missouri State [215th]

9 Browns' selection traded to Denver - see round 1

10 Buddenberg, John OT Akron [274th]

11 Plocki, Dan K Maryland [301st]

12 Brown, Marlon LB Memphis State [328th]

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656703https://brownsboard.com/post/656703Mon, 21 Nov 2016 23:49:12 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 22:37:38 GMT]]>

@mudfly said:

1) very little consideration was given to ST type players. Just basing my standard on the type of players that create a buildable core and offer a significant contribution for a reasonable period of time. Hence the reason I labeled em backups and busts.....the one thing they all have in common is that they are below average NFL starters...

I also excluded one year wonders, etc that some might consider "good" picks, ala the Cameron or Benji types....

2) Yes,,,,there is nominal, if any, difference between 4-5 +6 rounds....though teams do tend to keep the lower(4) picks longer, not surprisingly confirming their earlier faith that that player was the better one....league averages are similar to the Browns....a smidge higher(8% ish)...

3) significantly...jump to the 3rd doubles your chances at 14-15%.....second triples them at 25%.....and 1st quadruples them at almost 35%(even higher if were just talking average starters....which to many, would be considered below average for 1st round).....so, I did assign a higher value AND expectation to first round picks....

The most significant thing that struck me, is you cannot build a team with massive middle and lates....it wont work....

  1. That's sound... nothing magical about later picks being better ST material... they may be a little more motivated, but since "wedge-busting" is no longer a thing, STs don't require the "want to" they used to...
  2. So Day 3 is more about perception of the desirability of a given player than odds. At least for R 4, 5, and 6. R7? Fall off?
  3. And there it is... trading two #2's for a #1 is not a good deal from an odds perspective... and have to remember that a next year #1 is valued like a #2. The odds make a case for trade downs, not trade ups.

The probability of one of two positive and independent outcomes is the sum of the probabilities of each one minus the probability of both occurring. So the odds of hitting on one of two 2nd round picks is:

0.25 + 0.25 - (0.25 x 0.25) = 0.50 - 0.0625 = 0.4375 ==> 43.75 %

However, since we would not mind hitting on both 2nd rounders the 0.0625 should be added back in setting the final odds at 50%... SCIENCE! or at least math. And that bests 35% by a considerable margin.

The fly in the ointment? The two outcomes are not truly independent since the decisions come from the same source. But whether you think this FO increases or decreases our odds of success vs. the league norm, that opinion impacts the odds in all rounds. So it impacts the input to the statistical assessment, not the math behind it.

So it all comes down to who you like how much vs. the rest of the league and then either being right... or at minimum, not being wrong. And as I put forth in a thread a week or two ago about "Browns' 2016 Draft Busts", there may be some "Incompletes" on our new FO's report card, but on a simple Pass/Fail scale, there are no "F's"... at least not yet in public view.

And that's a lot better than past FOs...

@browns149 said:

You're just NOW thinking of it?

lol... beat me to it...

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656685https://brownsboard.com/post/656685Mon, 21 Nov 2016 22:37:38 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 18:10:09 GMT]]>Excellent read Mudfly. This team has so many holes to fill I was always looking at quantity versus quality (wouldn't it be great if you could get both?) but the stats don't lie. If you want quality talent it is going to come in the first few rounds. To try and build a team on later round drafts is chasing fools gold. Get the quality talent. Trade up.

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656589https://brownsboard.com/post/656589Mon, 21 Nov 2016 18:10:09 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 17:05:51 GMT]]>Without mewling over this whole thread, what I gather is that your bottom line is this: use all those late round picks we keep acquiring to trade up into the third round or higher?

I would be fine if the Browns would have 6 picks in the first three rounds and none beyond that. (the problem of course is that we cannot keep making such awful high picks as we have the last 5-8 years....you need value with those picks....not the JMZ, Erving, Mingo, Gilberts, TRs, Quinns, Weedens, Leon McFaddens etc etc. You need them to be Joe Haden, Joe Thomas, maybe Danny Shelton, maybe Joel Bitonio, maybe Mich Schwartz.

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656543https://brownsboard.com/post/656543Mon, 21 Nov 2016 17:05:51 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 11:32:15 GMT]]>We will most likely have the 1st pick. I've said before that we should trade up and go after 2 of the top 3 guys in the draft.

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656415https://brownsboard.com/post/656415Mon, 21 Nov 2016 11:32:15 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 11:26:38 GMT]]>

@flugel said:

Great job with that research!

When we used to be good at drafting mid to late as well as finding undrafted guys - we made the playoffs. I know you specified starters over several years but free agency kind of altered that to an extent. Therefore I just want to piggyback in some names of other important help we found from round 4 through undrafted FAs:

ILB Eddie Johnson was drafted in round 7 out of Louisville in 1981 and stayed here until 1990

LT Rickey Bolden was drafted in round 4 out of SMU in 1984 and played here until 1990

Safety Felix Wright undrafted and we snagged him from the CFL in 1985 and played 6 years for us

RB Herman Fontenot undrafted in 1985 contributed 47 receptions on 3rd downs in our 12 win season in 1986 (only stayed 3 years)

LT Tony (T-Bone) Jones was undrafted out of W. Carolina in 1988 stayed til the move. Started at LT for Denver's SB Champions.

Safety Thane Gash was drafted in round 7 out of East TN State in 1988 started 4 years here

RT Orlando Brown was undrafted out of South Carolina State in 1993 - stayed til the move and rejoined us in 99.

I did include Eddie Johnson as one of our successful late picks......the rest of these guys are not draft choices, so it's a mute point. Im not saying you cant find a late pick gem or a UDFA contributor here and there,,,,Im saying you cant build a team with them....

Plus....many above were just PT helpers and not even starters.....let alone solid players.....Fontenot? 300 yards in 6 years.....Bolden?....6 year back up....Thane Gash?.....out of the league after 3 yrs.....etc.........Im talking about obtaining long term quality.....

Our Free Agents from the USFL were:

ILB Mike Johnson

FB Kevin Mack

OG Dan Fike

CB Frank Minnifield

PR/KR - Gerald Ice Cube McNeil

Well.....Johnson & Mack were both first round picks and the Cube was a 2nd......(not FA's).....these 5 players were all good contributors and none were acquired with middle to late picks......part of my beef has been we didnt go after any FA's and we are relying on a lot of middle/late picks.....and these 5 players show what you can get with high picks and FA signings.......

Id also point out that we traded like 6 middle/late picks for the rights to draft Kevin Mack and The Cube.....which is exactly what Im advocating we do here....

These are some guys we drafted after trading up:

Mike Phipps #3 overall in 1970.

Kellen Winslow Jr #6 overall in 2004. Pittsburgh drafted Ben Roethlisberger at #11 overall

Brady Quinn #22 overall in 2007

Trent Richardson #3 overall in 2012

Brandon Weeden #22 overall in 2012. Russell Wilson was drafted at #75 overall

Johnny Manziel #22 overall in 2014. Derek Carr was drafted at #36 overall

First...These were all trade ups within the first round...every one of em....my OP clearly states that I want to move up from the middle and late picks....not necessarily within the first round.....

Second....the #'s I presented show that there is still a slim margin of success...even in the higher rounds. So it is easy to find failed picks in any round....we all can do it....point is that those "trade ups" were not fails due to trading up....they were fails due to making a bad pick.....that coulda/woulda happened with a trade or no trade......but the higher you go, the better the odds are of success...

We have enough draft picks to where we should be able to trade up to land some additional early impact.

Which is my whole point.......IF they do it.....(last draft,m they didnt)

We should also have enough $ to compete for any free agents that can help us.

We had those $$$ last season too.....didnt sign shit......not even one OL or C ......pathetic....

Giddy up and get after it!

We shall see if the strategy changes......

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656412https://brownsboard.com/post/656412Mon, 21 Nov 2016 11:26:38 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 08:02:54 GMT]]>On the pregame radio show, ex players described our owner as "a Dollar General store version of Jerry Jones", and that we as fans would be better off if jimminy ends up in jail.

Thanks for nothing Hasslam!

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656401https://brownsboard.com/post/656401Mon, 21 Nov 2016 08:02:54 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 07:55:51 GMT]]>Excellent post.

Maybe these numbers can help illustrate something to all concerned parties...

Since the owner wants to build through the draft (and NOT sign high cost FA):

a. Can you actually do that? (given the facts you presented) and how many years would that take?;

b. It CAN'T be done in 1 year (as many fans seem to want)

I'm not willing to pass judgement on this FO or coaching staff after the first year of a complete gut-and-start-over rebuild.

I expected a losing team this year - just maybe not a winless one.

I'm even willing to give the FO the benefit of the doubt - at this point - and say they were looking 2-3 drafts ahead.

I was surprised early in the year that they weren't more disorganized and actually competed in most games. They even had late 4th quarter leads in some of those, but didn't close it out.

I agree that a BIG concern is that they haven't improved.

Any complete rebuild should be totally disorganized and ineffectual in the first half of the season. The second half is where you look to see if they've started coming together and are improving - even if they aren't winning.

Not seeing that here so far.

I suppose the real test of the coaching staff now will be if they can continue to compete in the last 5 games, or do they start quitting and mailing it in?

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656400https://brownsboard.com/post/656400Mon, 21 Nov 2016 07:55:51 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 05:35:48 GMT]]>

@mudfly said:

My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)

1970-79 4th & later

141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......

Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)

Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate

1980-89 4th & later

97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......

Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)

Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....

1990-99 4th & later

58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...

Starter: Burnett(5)

Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....

2000-10 4th & later

54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...

Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)

Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....

2011-15 4th & later

24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...

Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...

Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....

summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks

374 drafts picks made........

16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....

........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...

358 players were not successful.....

So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)

and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....

All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....

Great job with that research!

When we used to be good at drafting mid to late as well as finding undrafted guys - we made the playoffs. I know you specified starters over several years but free agency kind of altered that to an extent. Therefore I just want to piggyback in some names of other important help we found from round 4 through undrafted FAs:

ILB Eddie Johnson was drafted in round 7 out of Louisville in 1981 and stayed here until 1990

LT Rickey Bolden was drafted in round 4 out of SMU in 1984 and played here until 1990

Safety Felix Wright undrafted and we snagged him from the CFL in 1985 and played 6 years for us

RB Herman Fontenot undrafted in 1985 contributed 47 receptions on 3rd downs in our 12 win season in 1986 (only stayed 3 years)

LT Tony (T-Bone) Jones was undrafted out of W. Carolina in 1988 stayed til the move. Started at LT for Denver's SB Champions.

Safety Thane Gash was drafted in round 7 out of East TN State in 1988 started 4 years here

RT Orlando Brown was undrafted out of South Carolina State in 1993 - stayed til the move and rejoined us in 99.

Our Free Agents from the USFL were:

ILB Mike Johnson

FB Kevin Mack

OG Dan Fike

CB Frank Minnifield

PR/KR - Gerald Ice Cube McNeil

These are some guys we drafted after trading up:

Mike Phipps #3 overall in 1970.

Kellen Winslow Jr #6 overall in 2004. Pittsburgh drafted Ben Roethlisberger at #11 overall

Brady Quinn #22 overall in 2007

Trent Richardson #3 overall in 2012

Brandon Weeden #22 overall in 2012. Russell Wilson was drafted at #75 overall

Johnny Manziel #22 overall in 2014. Derek Carr was drafted at #36 overall

I've been trained to not trust our choices when we traded up over the years. Meanwhile I've seen us succeed when our front office did well late in the draft as well as finding/signing UFAs. However, most of that was in the 80s and early 90s so I've also been trained that things can change. This is the worst 2 year span of football I can remember. We're 3 and 29 in our last 32 games looking like we'll be 3 and 34 when the season ends. We have enough draft picks to where we should be able to trade up to land some additional early impact. We should also have enough $ to compete for any free agents that can help us. Giddy up and get after it!

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656391https://brownsboard.com/post/656391Mon, 21 Nov 2016 05:35:48 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 07:20:09 GMT]]>Don't we have 7 1st and 2nd round picks the next 2 years? 9 in the first 3 rounds. A few of our extra late picks were throw-ins on bigger deals. Might as well take it if it's offered to you. (Btw, do we expect any 3rd round compensatories?)

Also, the higher the pick, the higher the investment from the team. If we drafted Willie Snead and Dion Lewis in the first round, they'd still be on the team. Where guys were drafted indicates to you their potential. So even though you might see suckage at practice, you're a little more willing to wait and see if things will click for them. See: Erving, Cam.

Lastly, I think Sashi (who still has yet to add a second H to his name) and the analytics boys are aware of all this analysis (which is useful) and are going to implement it into their strategy however they see fit.

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656389https://brownsboard.com/post/656389Mon, 21 Nov 2016 07:20:09 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 01:51:54 GMT]]>

@browns149 said:

You're just NOW thinking of it?

LOL! The 25 page thread "Draft Talk" was started way back on Sept 4. But we welcome any Johnny-come-latelys (Oh no, that word again). 😛

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656364https://brownsboard.com/post/656364Mon, 21 Nov 2016 01:51:54 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 01:16:40 GMT]]>

@calfoxwc said:

trouble is, the Browns have often drafted players in the first round who played like

fifth round picks, or worse.

It's only nov, and I'm thinking to start working on a mock draft.

dammit.

You're just NOW thinking of it?]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656353https://brownsboard.com/post/656353Mon, 21 Nov 2016 01:16:40 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version) on Mon, 21 Nov 2016 00:42:42 GMT]]>trouble is, the Browns have often drafted players in the first round who played like

fifth round picks, or worse.

It's only nov, and I'm thinking to start working on a mock draft.

dammit.

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/656340https://brownsboard.com/post/656340Mon, 21 Nov 2016 00:42:42 GMT