@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

Probably not.

Definitely not...

@nickers said:

Allen has some nice tools.. I just doubt he has the masculinity to lead men... We don't need the white JaMarcus Russell...

FTFY  

@the-gipper said:

Are you two going to be put on ignored by tour because you were unnecessarily argumentative 

Probably not. I’m not arguing, I’m stating a fact.

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

The curious incident line comes from Holmes. 

This isn’t that line. 

So Nero was right. Good job Nero.

Are you two going to be put on ignored by tour because you were unnecessarily argumentative 

@the-gipper said:

Case/ incident whatever the Genesis is the same. It comes from Sherlock Holmes.

The curious incident line comes from Holmes. 

This isn’t that line. 

So Nero was right. Good job Nero.

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

The phrase is  “the curious incident of the dog in the night-time”. Not case.

I also can’t find a single thing that indicates Fitzgerald was referencing that line. So Nero is right.

Case/ incident whatever the Genesis is the same. It comes from Sherlock Holmes.

I also can’t find a single thing that indicates Fitzgerald was referencing that line. So Nero is right.

@tour2ma said:

 so as a Frosh he had five attempts and as a Soph a whopping 15.

yeah, I saw that after I posted, "der", but I didn't want to say anything, had to go, just meaningless. my bad.

@calfoxwc said:

I wonder - Peyton Manning is the qb that is what Eli isn't. (from Wikipedia)

His numbers 61.8 (freshman) 64.2, 63.9, 60.2

I still be a slight fluctuation, probably due to changes each graduating class, but I have to admit -

didn't fall below 60%. he's that accurate. It's confusing - Mike White at Kentucky -

53.1 (Freshman), 50.4, but then as a junior - a whopping 67.3, 65.4 as a senior.

Interesting - especially when they changed offenses, I think - starting his senior year.

     So, I"m confused. lol. Peyton - the accuracy light was always on. Eli, on-off-on-off, and Mike White? off, then on the last two years?

Then there's Tom Brady - Freshman year- 1996 60%, 1997 a huge 80%, then 61.9 and 61 his jr and sr years.

So, Brady and Peyton - they were just locked in accurate when they started? Some qb's can develop accuracy like Mike White did?

Maybe some are locked in to inconsistent accuracy forever? The more I look at it, the more I'm not sure.

Maybe Mike White is the best pro-ready qb in this draft.

First... please don't just cite percentages. They are not all equal.

In his first two seasons at UM Brady was not the starter, so as a Frosh he had five attempts and as a Soph a whopping 15. Clearly those seasons' stats deserve no weight in any analysis. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tom-brady-1.html His Jr and Sr years are valid, but under rigorous statistical analysis the completion percentages are likely no different. What does look different are his TD:INT ratio. They suggest greater care with the ball that possibly is reflected in the slight drop in accuracy, but that'd never be provable.

White? Special case all around given that he changed schools in the middle of his 4 years... and sat a year to boot. His rushing stats don't suggest a significantly different offensive use at the two schools. Looks like he was splitting time at USF and was "the man" at WKU. Looks like WKU's passing attacked suited the skill set of a more mature kid better... but a kid that was overloaded his Sr year when his pass attempt total skyrocketed.

"Accuracy" is an output dependent on many variables. Some are innate... some learned... some circumstantial. Certainly there's not one magical combination of factors to the top. Certainly there are varying sensitivities of the output to variations in the variables.

@calfoxwc said:

Derek Carr, who we could have drafted, (de ja vu all over again), had the following accuracy percentages his

last three years of college: Went in the second round even.

62.6
67.3
68.9

I'm a little confused cal - what do you mean by this?

@dutch-oven said:

Then let some other team reach for a project like Allen.

If the Browns were sitting around #20 and someone like yourself and cal were pushing to get him, that's one thing. I still think Allen is a highly-flawed QB prospect, but at #20 I could see the temptation I suppose.

At #1 or #4 overall? No. Thank. You.

Derek Carr, who we could have drafted, (de ja vu all over again), had the following accuracy percentages his

last three years of college: Went in the second round even.

62.6
67.3
68.9

@boo-fagley said:

Allen will gone by the time the Browns pick in round 2. 

Then let some other team reach for a project like Allen.

If the Browns were sitting around #20 and someone like yourself and cal were pushing to get him, that's one thing. I still think Allen is a highly-flawed QB prospect, but at #20 I could see the temptation I suppose.

At #1 or #4 overall? No. Thank. You.

@boo-fagley said:

You are making my point. 

Would you pick Brady, Farve or Brees 1st overall tomorrow?  

Allen will gone by the time the Browns pick in round 2. 

Would you pick Peyton Manning or Kurt Warner 1st overall? 

Of course you would, because we NOW know what player they have become. But there are several QBs going to the draft each year and I'd say only around half of the league has a franchise QB. 

When you look at somebody's stats, you try to compare to known cases, like you have done with Brees, Brady and Favre. We do it here, NFL teams do it. 

Problem is, I bet there are way more QBs that didn't success in the pros with those accuracy stats (56%) than the ones who succeeded; which as of today we only have found Favre. 

@boo-fagley said:

Especially with you here.

You probably don't know the difference between litter and literature.

@nero said:

You are right. Favre's, Brady, and Brees' cases do indeed help Allen's.

But let's comment some things on those cases: It took 3 years to Brees to become the player we know he is, Brady played thanks to Bledsoe getting injured and Favre's resume in Atlanta is, per Wikipedia, 'He only attempted four passes in his career at Atlanta, was intercepted twice, and completed none of them. Favre took one other snap, which resulted in a sack for an eleven-yard loss.'  

Moreover, all those three players weren't picked in first round (Brees #32, Favre #33, Brady #199). Neither of them were the first QB picked. 

Favre  was chosen the 3rd QB in a defensive draft and also had an incredible arm and holds the record for the longest playing streak. He was tough as nails. 

You can make a case that a players accuracy can improve in the pros, but either it is in the fewest of cases, or it takes HOFers to achieve that feat. That's why I don't want to draft Allen with either #1 or #4 (and those are the picks where I would accept getting a QB this draft), because there are many more things that can go wrong in that case that if you draft someone more ready. If we were talking about drafting him on second round, I wouldn't mind. 

You are making my point. 

Would you pick Brady, Farve or Brees 1st overall tomorrow?  

Allen will gone by the time the Browns pick in round 2. 

@calfoxwc said:

I wonder - Peyton Manning is the qb that is what Eli isn't. (from Wikipedia)

His numbers 61.8 (freshman) 64.2, 63.9, 60.2

I still be a slight fluctuation, probably due to changes each graduating class, but I have to admit -

didn't fall below 60%. he's that accurate. It's confusing - Mike White at Kentucky -

53.1 (Freshman), 50.4, but then as a junior - a whopping 67.3, 65.4 as a senior.

Interesting - especially when they changed offenses, I think - starting his senior year.

     So, I"m confused. lol. Peyton - the accuracy light was always on. Eli, on-off-on-off, and Mike White? off, then on the last two years?

Then there's Tom Brady - Freshman year- 1996 60%, 1997 a huge 80%, then 61.9 and 61 his jr and sr years.

So, Brady and Peyton - they were just locked in accurate when they started? Some qb's can develop accuracy like Mike White did?

Maybe some are locked in to inconsistent accuracy forever? The more I look at it, the more I'm not sure.

Maybe Mike White is the best pro-ready qb in this draft.

They are still waiting for Johnnys comeback. 

NFL teams draft QBs to develop. Guys like Russ Wilson hit the lottery and it worked out golden his first season. 

@the-gipper said:

This is completely different than the Curious Case of The Dog in the Night.

The Dog did nothing in the night....and that was significant.

Here...there is nothing  done here either, but is no significance.

Especially with you here.

“That was the curious incident,” remarked Sherlock Holmes.

Silver Blaze.   Strand Magazine,  1892

His numbers 61.8 (freshman) 64.2, 63.9, 60.2

I still be a slight fluctuation, probably due to changes each graduating class, but I have to admit -

didn't fall below 60%. he's that accurate. It's confusing - Mike White at Kentucky -

53.1 (Freshman), 50.4, but then as a junior - a whopping 67.3, 65.4 as a senior.

Interesting - especially when they changed offenses, I think - starting his senior year.

     So, I"m confused. lol. Peyton - the accuracy light was always on. Eli, on-off-on-off, and Mike White? off, then on the last two years?

Then there's Tom Brady - Freshman year- 1996 60%, 1997 a huge 80%, then 61.9 and 61 his jr and sr years.

So, Brady and Peyton - they were just locked in accurate when they started? Some qb's can develop accuracy like Mike White did?

Maybe some are locked in to inconsistent accuracy forever? The more I look at it, the more I'm not sure.

Maybe Mike White is the best pro-ready qb in this draft.

DeShone Kizer college completion percentage: 60.7

Josh Allen college completion percentage: 56.2

Very rarely do you see completion percentages increase as players transition to the NFL.  I highly doubt you will see a percentage increase for any QB who joins the Browns, since their WR corps is less than stellar and there's always the "rookie year handicap" coming into effect as players are learning the playbook and NFL speed.  

So how much weight do we place on college QB completion percentage?  If that's all we're looking at, Allen is a downgrade or at best, a sidegrade from what we have now in Kizer.  Worth a #1 pick?  No way.  Browns are for sure going QB with the #1 pick, there's no clear consensus on who it will be (each candidate has their weaknesses) but if I were to place a bet I would go with Darnold (Rosen = injury concerns, I like Mayfield the best and would be happy to see him on the Browns but I don't think the Browns will get over his size, everyone else =  too big a risk for #1 overall pick).

@calfoxwc said:

So much is argued about completion percentages as a main criteria to judge future NFL qb's by.

So, it seems his numbers fluctuate. What exactly does that mean? He's hopelessly inaccurate? Seems that his percentage changed with the changing cast of characters around him...changing offensive strategies.... etc. Looks like the passing percentages went well above 60 the last four years with the arrival of a top center and Odell Beckham, Jr - WR. Just sayin..... God Bless Ya ! (how did Flugels miss these stats?)

Good, honest attempt to talk about QBs, all QBs, is what I see, cal. In the end to make any use of whatever comes out of the conversation, you can't exclude Allen, but that doesn't make this just about him. So I'm in.

We throw a lot of nebulous terms around in pro QB discussions.... "elite"... "franchise"... "starter"... "backup". Where's Eli in this range? He's certainly a starter. I don't see elite. Franchise? Probably... but I think any consideration he's given for this level is longevity driven, not talent driven.

In parallel we talk about QBs who can "carry a team"... "elevate teammates"... "manage a game"... "fill in". Again where's Eli? I don't see elevation and his game management capacity is questionable from season to season... even week to week. However, there have certainly been games where he has carried the Giants.

Bottom line? I'm left seeing a middling, talented starter whose performance is more influenced by the level of talent around him than the other way around. While OBJ is arguably the most significant factor in setting that talent level, he's not the only WR of significance let alone the only player of significance. Plus we have to remember that thru FA acquisitions NYG bought itself one of the best Defenses in the league in 2016. So talent considerations are not restricted to just one side of the ball.

At Ole Miss Eli showed the same fluctuating performance as he has as a pro and his 2001-2003 numbers are right in line with the range of his pro numbers. His Freshman season in 2000 was a 33-attempt, part-time season that deserves no weight. Seems to simply be another example of a pro QB who was "as advertised" in college.

Where do we go from here?

@nero said:

Well, yes... You asked for the source. Scott Fitzgerald is the answer. I want my cookie. 

NO soup for you....you got it wrong.  Read my question.   It asked for the source of "The Curious Case of the Dog in the Night".  And if you googled, you cheated.  And you get a vinegar enema!