<![CDATA[Draft - Running Back Ball Security]]> When it comes to running backs I'm partial to those that don't put the ball on the ground.  Below is an article from a month or so ago that ranks the incoming running back draft class on ball security.  Interesting to note that Nick Chubb, Bo Scraborough, Nyheim Hines all rank below average while the ball security of Kamryn Pettway and Sony Michel is considered a "red flag".  Conversely, Ronald Jones, Saquon Barkley and Kerryon Johnson rank among the best at 3rd, 4th and 5th respectively.  If I was GM Sony Michel is a "do not draft" player.

Vision. Balance. Burst. These are the main traits that scouts want to see from running backs. Ball security is also a crucial characteristic that is key to the NFL transition.

The average fumble rate for the top 10 rushers in the NFL last season was one for every 124.5 offensive touches

Kansas City Chiefs rookie running back Kareem Hunt had elite ball security at Toledo (fumble rate of 856.0), and that skill translated as a first-year NFL player, as he fumbled only once in 325 offensive touches in 2017.

Cincinnati Bengals rookie Joe Mixon had fumbling issues in college, putting the ball on the ground once every 73.0 offensive touches at Oklahoma. And that stayed true in his first year as a pro, posting a 69.3 fumble rate last season.

Below are the career offensive fumble rates for the top running back prospects in the 2018 NFL Draft class, broken down into five categories:

359.0 -- Darrel Williams, LSU

238.7 -- Demario Richard, Arizona State

207.7 -- Ronald Jones, USC

193.3 -- Saquon Barkley, Penn State

191.3 -- Kerryon Johnson, Auburn

181.7 -- Kyle Hicks, TCU

180.6 -- Justin Jackson, Northwestern

174.0 -- Josh Adams, Notre Dame

155.5 -- Jordan Wilkins, Ole Miss

ABOVE AVERAGE (125-149)

142.1 -- Chase Edmonds, Fordham

135.0 -- Lavon Coleman, Washington

124.9 -- Ralph Webb, Vanderbilt

123.3 -- John Kelly, Tennessee

AVERAGE (100-124)

114.0 -- Royce Freeman, Oregon

110.0 -- Phillip Lindsay, Colorado

105.8 -- Rashaad Penny, San Diego State

100.6 -- Derrius Guice, LSU

BELOW AVERAGE (76-99)

98.6 -- Nick Chubb, Georgia

96.0 -- Bo Scarbrough, Alabama

90.0 -- Mark Walton, Miami (Fla.)

88.2 -- Ryan Nall, Oregon State

87.3 -- Ito Smith, Southern Miss

86.8 -- Nyheim Hines, NC State

76.3 -- Jordan Chunn, Troy

RED FLAG (75 or worse)

74.2 -- Roc Thomas, Jacksonville State

67.4 -- Akrum Wadley, Iowa

66.9 -- Jarvion Franklin, Western Michigan

66.5 -- Kalen Ballage, Arizona State

62.5 -- Justin Crawford, West Virginia

58.2 -- Kamryn Pettway, Auburn

55.6 -- Keith Ford, Texas A&M

54.6 -- Sony Michel, Georgia

39.5 -- Jeffery Wilson, North Texas

]]>https://brownsboard.com/topic/49739/draft-running-back-ball-securityRSS for NodeThu, 01 Oct 2026 12:58:30 GMTSun, 25 Mar 2018 22:11:52 GMT60<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Tue, 27 Mar 2018 11:02:05 GMT]]>

@tour2ma said:

But a part timer...

But he has Bud Light (7.9 ypc)! Hop in!😁

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781731https://brownsboard.com/post/781731Tue, 27 Mar 2018 11:02:05 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Tue, 27 Mar 2018 05:18:00 GMT]]>

@tour2ma said:

But a part timer...

It's like that Bud Light commerical...  when the couple is driving and see's progressively more suspicious characters, the guy shrugs it off when he see's said characters holding bud light.    I'm that guy at the moment.     Oh, Shmuck it.   I'll embed it.  

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781723https://brownsboard.com/post/781723Tue, 27 Mar 2018 05:18:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Tue, 27 Mar 2018 05:09:17 GMT]]>

@tiamat63 said:

 Again, not the worst numbers I've seen.   

But a part timer...

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781721https://brownsboard.com/post/781721Tue, 27 Mar 2018 05:09:17 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Tue, 27 Mar 2018 04:42:02 GMT]]>

@tour2ma said:

Here you go... doesn't look al that bad until you remember he was on the short end of split time.

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/players/playerpage/2131588/sony-michel

Fumbles
Season TEAM G FUMB FUMBLOST
2014-15 Georgia 8 2 2
2015-16 Georgia 13 5 1
2016-17 Georgia 12 3 1
2017-18 Georgia 14 2 1
TOTAL   47 12 5

So 156 carries this past season with 1 fumble lost?  Even if we go with the 2 fumbles total that's 78 carries for every time it goes on the ground.   Since Hyde will be the lead dog with Duke as the next man up,  at most you could see Sony getting 6-8 carries a game his rookie year.   Say 8 on the high side, which would make for a lost fumble every 9 & 3/4 games.       Not too bad when put in that context.       Still, fumble-itis is something I'm very leary of.  

edit:  Even with the Hue average RB1 getting 14CPG, that amounts to a lost fumble ever 5 & 1/2 games or essentially 2 in a season with a probable 3rd somewhere.   Again, not the worst numbers I've seen.   

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781717https://brownsboard.com/post/781717Tue, 27 Mar 2018 04:42:02 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Tue, 27 Mar 2018 04:20:14 GMT]]>

@tiamat63 said:

I'll have to check the career breakdown.

Here you go... doesn't look al that bad until you remember he was on the short end of split time.

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/players/playerpage/2131588/sony-michel

Fumbles
Season TEAM G FUMB FUMBLOST
2014-15 Georgia 8 2 2
2015-16 Georgia 13 5 1
2016-17 Georgia 12 3 1
2017-18 Georgia 14 2 1
TOTAL   47 12 5
]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781713https://brownsboard.com/post/781713Tue, 27 Mar 2018 04:20:14 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Tue, 27 Mar 2018 03:21:01 GMT]]>

@tiamat63 said:

Pretty easy to not fumble when you actively avoid contact.

THIS

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781695https://brownsboard.com/post/781695Tue, 27 Mar 2018 03:21:01 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Tue, 27 Mar 2018 02:59:43 GMT]]>

@poeticg said:

Contact is a last resort, there is no reason to make contact unless you are out of options. Many of the other runner are simply not talented enough and just run into people. Barkley rarely runs out of ways to make you miss, and in the rare occasion that contact is unavoidable, he can beast mode you just as well. 

Not in the NFL, kiddo. 

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781690https://brownsboard.com/post/781690Tue, 27 Mar 2018 02:59:43 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Tue, 27 Mar 2018 01:19:27 GMT]]>

@tiamat63 said:

Pretty easy to not fumble when you actively avoid contact.

I'll have to check the career breakdown.  Love Michel's game on tape, only watched the bulk of this season but I did like his patience on the interior when compared to Guice.

If the numbers are trending in a better direction then I'm willing to consider that. AP had a bad fumbling issue his first few years. 

Contact is a last resort, there is no reason to make contact unless you are out of options. Many of the other runner are simply not talented enough and just run into people. Barkley rarely runs out of ways to make you miss, and in the rare occasion that contact is unavoidable, he can beast mode you just as well. 

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781677https://brownsboard.com/post/781677Tue, 27 Mar 2018 01:19:27 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Tue, 27 Mar 2018 01:05:21 GMT]]>

@poeticg said:

Wow! Look at Barkley's number! That is the difference between a top 3 talent and the second/third round. If you break that down, carrying the ball 25 times a game- Michel fumbles every other game to Barkley's nearly half a season stretch without a fumble... that's remarkable in comparison! Even with my boy Rashaad Penny, it's nearly a 2:1 ratio. Incredible. 

Pretty easy to not fumble when you actively avoid contact.

@dutch-oven said:

To be fair, Michel was much, much better this season. 

I'll have to check the career breakdown.  Love Michel's game on tape, only watched the bulk of this season but I did like his patience on the interior when compared to Guice.

If the numbers are trending in a better direction then I'm willing to consider that. AP had a bad fumbling issue his first few years. 

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781676https://brownsboard.com/post/781676Tue, 27 Mar 2018 01:05:21 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Tue, 27 Mar 2018 00:36:45 GMT]]> Wow! Look at Barkley's number! That is the difference between a top 3 talent and the second/third round. If you break that down, carrying the ball 25 times a game- Michel fumbles every other game to Barkley's nearly half a season stretch without a fumble... that's remarkable in comparison! Even with my boy Rashaad Penny, it's nearly a 2:1 ratio. Incredible. 

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781671https://brownsboard.com/post/781671Tue, 27 Mar 2018 00:36:45 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Mon, 26 Mar 2018 23:30:57 GMT]]>

@tiamat63 said:

Might cause me to put Guice over Sony.   In my world receivers have to be able to catch and RB's not put it on the turf. 

Can't go against my own rules.

To be fair, Michel was much, much better this season. 

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781657https://brownsboard.com/post/781657Mon, 26 Mar 2018 23:30:57 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Mon, 26 Mar 2018 23:05:01 GMT]]> Might cause me to put Guice over Sony.   In my world receivers have to be able to catch and RB's not put it on the turf. 

Can't go against my own rules.

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781652https://brownsboard.com/post/781652Mon, 26 Mar 2018 23:05:01 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Mon, 26 Mar 2018 18:30:06 GMT]]> Another article same topic...

https://www.upi.com/2018-NFL-Draft-Fumble-rates-for-running-back-prospects/7311518380025/

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781571https://brownsboard.com/post/781571Mon, 26 Mar 2018 18:30:06 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Draft - Running Back Ball Security on Mon, 26 Mar 2018 07:54:15 GMT]]> Two good examples you used there Suomi but for balance are there any examples out there of the opposite?

Any examples of fumbling issues being fixed in the NFL via coaching etc or even vice versa, someone that didn't drop the ball in college all of a sudden fumbling when faced with NFL defenses?

]]>https://brownsboard.com/post/781463https://brownsboard.com/post/781463Mon, 26 Mar 2018 07:54:15 GMT