The Moneyball thesis is simple: Using statistical analysis, small-market teams can compete by buying assets that are undervalued by other teams and selling ones that are overvalued by other teams. 

If Schobert...or any other Browns player, seems that they are in a position to be paid more than this FO thinks they may be worth, even by  a smidgen,  then they are not going to go there.   

I can almost guarantee you that the OBJ trade was NOT  a Depodesta strategy, but rather a Dorsey strategy. 

Franchise tag: A one-year, guaranteed contract offer that prevents a player from hitting unrestricted free agency. The salary is based on the five-year average cap percentage for the tag at each position, stemming from the top five salaries at each position.

Transition tag: Also a one-year, guaranteed contract based on the five-year average cap percentage for the tag at each position, but the transition tag stems from the top 10 -- not top five -- salaries at each position, so it's a bit cheaper. Most importantly, this tag allows players to sign offer sheets with other teams, but the original club has five days to match.

It looks like the franchise tag for a LB is around 16 million. 

https://overthecap.com/franchise-transition-and-rfa-tenders/

https://overthecap.com/position/inside-linebacker/

https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-outside-linebacker/

https://overthecap.com/position/traditional-linebacker/

I think that Schobert would fall into the more traditional linebacker role so I would guess his next contract is going to look something very similar to Deion Jones or Myles Jack. Is it worth spending that much money on a LB knowing that there are a bunch of contracts that are about to come up with Garrett, Baker, etc. At some point the cap becomes an issue and they don't want to end up like the Jags or Vikings. I'm not advocating one way or the other on signing Schobert, I'm simply asking whether it is worth signing him to a long term deal or sign him for one more year and try to draft more guys to develop. Also, if they let him walk, there is a good chance that they are going to receive some sort of comp pick in 2021. I'm not sure if that is worth it or not.

@hoorta said:

I'll  agree with  Orion about  Schobert. If we can retain  him on a reasonable contract, I'm  all  for it. Ticky-taki hasn't  shown  much, and Kirksey is always  hurt. Why create  another  hole in a position  that's already  below league  average? 

I was listening to NFL Radio on the way to play RB yesterday and the two most knowledgeable guys "Movin' the Chains" listed Shobert as their second best FA LB out there and that someone would reap the benefits if they signed him away from the Browns. The implication being the Browns would be crazy to not get him signed.

We've been through this before.  

Looks like our new OL coach said, "I know a couple guys you can dump".     And our DC (DB coach last year) said, "Here's some DB's I don't want".

Zombo said:

There's better vets out there that can be had for the 6 mil plus we saved on Carrie.

Z

Carrie was available 32 of 32 games.  Started almost half of those because guys who were preferred and some better were not available.  
 

It has historically been a tough buyers market for free agent CB.  

Zombo said:

There's better vets out there that can be had for the 6 mil plus we saved on Carrie.

Z

Who?

Zombo said:

Best hammies, worst contract.

Z

But what do you do...go with another rookie back there?

or sign a vet and hope he’s available 16 games? What’s the market rate for a serviceable vet CB?  

Zombo said:

Well, how about that ... Carrie and Kush released today. Along with TE Demerrius Harris and LB Adarius Taylor.

Z

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001102223/article/browns-new-gm-cuts-cb-tj-carrie-three-others

Z, I think we need a roster moves thread - and pin it.   

Zombo said:

Well, how about that ... Carrie and Kush released today. Along with TE Demerrius Harris and LB Adarius Taylor.

Z

We saw the last incomplete skinny post inside the red zone to a double covered Harris with OBJ singled up and Chubb uncovered in the flat.

Although I’m not too thrilled that we lost a corner that dressed each Sunday and had the best hammies of the group

Edge rushers aren't fun to find, but we can't pay Vernon $15 mill. Maybe he'll restructure, but doubtful. 

Zombo said:

I'm OK with letting them hit the market. The damage is done, they should have been re-signed last year. Now you gotta overpay for them pre-free agency compared to what you may find in free agency or the draft.  Let them free, and if we don't replace them right away, or the market softens on them, we can re-sign them.

I expect to be thin at both positions heading into free agency, doesn't mean we need to keep these guys at all cost. We may find MLB that Woods really wants, or a safety that can do Randall's job as good or better.

Another position of need will be OLB if Woods actually uses a third linebacker, Wilks rarely did.

I think Wilson is one starter, and we'll see how high these guys are on Taki Taki, not everyone was as much as our last front office.

Zombo

I'll  agree with  Orion about  Schobert. If we can retain  him on a reasonable contract, I'm  all  for it. Ticky-taki hasn't  shown  much, and Kirksey is always  hurt. Why create  another  hole in a position  that's already  below league  average? 

Zombo said:

Unrestricted Free Agent
These are players who the Browns have no roster control over, other than exclusive negotiating rights up until a few days before free agency.

QB Drew Stanton
WR Rashard Higgins
LT Greg Robinson
MLB Joe Schobert
S Damarious Randall
S Juston Burris
S Eric Murray

Let them all hit the market.

Man.... they traded a number 33 pick in the 2nd round in Ogbah for Eric Murray and they don't even have control over him. WTF. 

Here are my thoughts....

Mike

Zombo said:

The damage is done, they should have been re-signed last year.   Now you gotta overpay for them

Yes.  Well said.  But then, that's free agency....overpaying.    ie,  if you sell your house in a seller's market that's good....if you don't have to buy another one.  If you do, then it's a wash.

If the decision is that these guys are NOT worth the money, then so be it.  But if we replace them with guys that are cheaper AND not as good then where is the value?  Again, I do not like creating needs in the offseason.  There's gotta be GOOD reasoning behind it.  

@hoorta said:

Beat me to it- Hunt will definitely be tendered, only question is at what level, and if other teams offer him a contract- will the Browns match, or just be happy to take the draft pick?  

I would put a 2nd on him to help make it easy for a team to bite.  I take the pick.

@orion said:

I'd like to see what Stefanski's mob could do with Higgins. He showed some promise until Freddie got a hold of him.

I'd like to keep Hunt until he gets himself kicked out-a the league again.  He was good and a real team player last year.

Schobert is pretty good.  He's a good pass defender for a MLB.  (I'm not a fan of creating needs during the offseason)

Randall is fairly good...but he's not fast.

Ricky Lee Jones showed a flash or two but I bet Njoku gets new life.  (Njoku's another guy that Freddie refused to use.  He and Higgins could make Freddie look pretty dumb if they were to go on and have good seasons for us.  I think the first rounder gets a good look by the new coaches but I fear that Higgins could be allowed to walk.   - when ya threw the ball at Higgins, he usually caught it.  I like guys that catch the ball)

Ricky Lee Jones?  Do we have a Tight End named Chuck E. ?

I'd like to keep Hunt until he gets himself kicked out-a the league again.  He was good and a real team player last year.

Schobert is pretty good.  He's a good pass defender for a MLB.  (I'm not a fan of creating needs during the offseason)

Randall is fairly good...but he's not fast.

Ricky Lee Jones showed a flash or two but I bet Njoku gets new life.  (Njoku's another guy that Freddie refused to use.  He and Higgins could make Freddie look pretty dumb if they were to go on and have good seasons for us.  I think the first rounder gets a good look by the new coaches but I fear that Higgins could be allowed to walk.   - when ya threw the ball at Higgins, he usually caught it.  I like guys that catch the ball)

Joe Show flashed big time in some games played pretty average in others.  I believe we will now have to seriously compete with other offers.  Anything crazy or Top 3 type money for that position and I let him walk.

Kareem Hunt should be kept.

Seals Jones is more reliable than Njoku he stays 

Cox is good depth piece.  He should be more productive second go round than a rookie or any other FA at his level.

I give Burris and Hollywood fair offers too
 

....all else time to move on
 

Let them all hit the market.

So, what is it about those two where you say they can come or go?

@comeonman said:

Definitely don’t want to see Hunt, Randall or Shobert walk

Beat me to it- Hunt will definitely be tendered, only question is at what level, and if other teams offer him a contract- will the Browns match, or just be happy to take the draft pick?  

@lbc-mike said:

https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2020/2/11/21132919/list-of-the-cleveland-browns-free-agents

Only a couple I would like to keep.

Be interesting if the Browns want to keep Schobert- he's on record he wants to stay.  Tour may not agree, but I say put a second round tender on Hunt, instead of original round (3rd) costs an extra million if no one else is interested.