@the-gipper said:

OK, but honestly...that play should never have been called.   Even give it to Janovich.    Remember when Fullbacks used to run the ball on short yardage plays?

ya I do, good times

@tour2ma said:

Ding ding dingiddy-fuckin' DING...

And every adjustment made to the opening line is based upon how the bets are flowing.

How many times do we have to state this?

Sure but the bets flow based on the conditions exist in a particular game. If a team starting quarterback is not going to be playing that will affect the way the money flows. Or if the team is playing without its entire wide receiver corps that would affect it too. 

@bjh2130 said:

Vegas does not think one team is better than the other. They predict that putting the line at -7 Cleveland will split the money evenly between the two sides with info available/speculated on right now.

Ding ding dingiddy-fuckin' DING...

And every adjustment made to the opening line is based upon how the bets are flowing.

How many times do we have to state this?

@browns52 said:

these are the browns....until proven otherwise, what can go wrong will go wrong......hope we can break that label....

That was 100%, totally untrue before the season started....

... and it is even less so now.

I estimate that currently it is 137.6% untrue...

@the-gipper said:

Or....it means that they think at this point the Browns are just a better team regardless....playing at home.   Vegas has no sentimentality.   If it announced that the Steeler plan to sit BR and others, expect the line to go even higher. 

Vegas does not think one team is better than the other. They predict that putting the line at -7 Cleveland will split the money evenly between the two sides with info available/speculated on right now. Much of the public speculation is the steelers are going to rest some players since being a 2 seed does not come with a bye in the playoffs. Again Vegas is predicting that half the betting public thinks the browns are 7 points better and half the betting public thinks no way the steelers lose by more than 7 points to the browns. Also Vegas line makers do get inside information before the betting public so i assume they do have a pretty good clue as to what he steelers will be doing as far as resting players or playing them. 

@dawg-in-md said:

The game has opened up with Cleveland as an early 7 point favorite which tells me one thing, Vegas expects the Steelers to sit their key starters. Vegas is usually pretty accurate. 

still not a guarantee w.........these are the browns....until proven otherwise, what can go wrong will go wrong......hope we can break that label....

@sdbacker80 said:

Correct they could take it off the board.  

I believe the early line posted has taken the following assumptions: Steeler players will rest, Browns WRs will be back. 

All things equal we are not a -7 point favorite against the Steelers.  Even at home, even in a sleet rain wind storm and their poor rushing attack. 

Maybe the bookies have more confidence in the Browns than you do?

@the-gipper said:

Well, wait....you surmise that the line is  7 because you think that they think the Steelers will sit their players......while the Browns play at full strength?  

but...would  they not also adjust the line if the thought the Browns were going to be playing without their WR corps, half their OL,  most of the defensive backfield....and their MLB? 

I would think this could actually be a situation where they would literally take the game off the board when a team has all those players out...or if there is so much speculation as to whether or not they will be out. 

Correct they could take it off the board.  

I believe the early line posted has taken the following assumptions: Steeler players will rest, Browns WRs will be back. 

All things equal we are not a -7 point favorite against the Steelers.  Even at home, even in a sleet rain wind storm and their poor rushing attack. 

@dawg-in-md said:

I don't think they think we are the better team, especially since we still don't know if we will get all the players back who sat this week.

Well, wait....you surmise that the line is  7 because you think that they think the Steelers will sit their players......while the Browns play at full strength?  

but...would  they not also adjust the line if the thought the Browns were going to be playing without their WR corps, half their OL,  most of the defensive backfield....and their MLB? 

I would think this could actually be a situation where they would literally take the game off the board when a team has all those players out...or if there is so much speculation as to whether or not they will be out. 

@dawg-in-md said:

The game has opened up with Cleveland as an early 7 point favorite which tells me one thing, Vegas expects the Steelers to sit their key starters. Vegas is usually pretty accurate. 

Or....it means that they think at this point the Browns are just a better team regardless....playing at home.   Vegas has no sentimentality.   If it announced that the Steeler plan to sit BR and others, expect the line to go even higher. 

@jiggins7919 said:

Oh yeah, I remember. But to be fair, every other team runs that sneak just fine. I've literally NEVER seen a QB fumble it unless they're reaching over the top for a score and it gets swatted out. Baker has fumbled on a sneak multiple times, and don't forget the game a few weeks back where Baker fumbled it and ref blew it dead. No clue what the problem is, but it's bad. 

I have....can you say "Butt Fumble"? ?

@the-gipper said:

OK, but honestly...that play should never have been called.   Even give it to Janovich.    Remember when Fullbacks used to run the ball on short yardage plays? 

We had picked up two 3rd and 1 with that exact play earlier in the game.  One of them going for 4 yards.  Its not a bad play call it was poor execution that time. 

@the-gipper said:

OK, but honestly...that play should never have been called.   Even give it to Janovich.    Remember when Fullbacks used to run the ball on short yardage plays? 

Oh yeah, I remember. But to be fair, every other team runs that sneak just fine. I've literally NEVER seen a QB fumble it unless they're reaching over the top for a score and it gets swatted out. Baker has fumbled on a sneak multiple times, and don't forget the game a few weeks back where Baker fumbled it and ref blew it dead. No clue what the problem is, but it's bad. 

@the-gipper said:

I think these things DO have bearing from a seeding respect.    If we win and they both lose, we would get the higher seeding, no?  

What you are saying is that if we lose....and they both lose, we still lose to both of them as far as making the playoffs?   And that the only way we gain a playoff spot if we lose is if the Colts lose or the Titans lose both their games?

All I can say is that losing this game today really, really fucks us over. 

Yes I suppose if dolphins lose and browns win and the ravens lose browns would play either colts or tits in 4 vs 5 match-up. If browns win and only 1 of ravens or dolphins lose the browns would then play the steelers in the 6 vs 3 match-up. If browns dolphins and ravens all win then we are playing the bills in 2 vs 7 matchup. If the browns somehow sneak in with a loss and dolphins win they'll play steelers in 2v7 matchup. If browns sneak in with a loss and dolphins lose it will be browns vs bills in 2v7 matchup. 

@jiggins7919 said:

We tied Pittsburgh in the first game 2 years ago after we had like 8 turnovers. Joe Schobert made a pick or grabbed a fumble but couldn't finish it. We tried a FG but of course it was ocked or something. I don't really remember, just that we effed it up in typical fashion. We beat them last year when Mason Rudolph played, and then with 10 seconds left Myles Garrett swung a helmet at a player like a psycho and ruined our season because we can't even win correctly. 

Right.  Thanks for the correction. 

This year has been a lot of fun, most fun I've had in years. It really hurt to see us lose to the fucking Jets because our QB is the only QB I've ever seen who can't do a fucking sneak. 

OK, but honestly...that play should never have been called.   Even give it to Janovich.    Remember when Fullbacks used to run the ball on short yardage plays? 

@the-gipper said:

Didn't we beat their ass last year in the first game?  Or was that the tie?  

We were saddle big time in that game last year where the Duck beat us:   we were without Garrett....and with Freddie. 

We tied Pittsburgh in the first game 2 years ago after we had like 8 turnovers. Joe Schobert made a pick or grabbed a fumble but couldn't finish it. We tried a FG but of course it was ocked or something. I don't really remember, just that we effed it up in typical fashion. We beat them last year when Mason Rudolph played, and then with 10 seconds left Myles Garrett swung a helmet at a player like a psycho and ruined our season because we can't even win correctly. 

This year has been a lot of fun, most fun I've had in years. It really hurt to see us lose to the fucking Jets because our QB is the only QB I've ever seen who can't do a fucking sneak. 

@hoorta said:

Excuse me.... Exactly who was playing linebacker? Greedy, Delpit, and Harrison OUT-  75% of your starting secondary. You can't turn garbage into gold.  

Sorry but Joe Woods SUCK's as a DC.. Talent or NOT!

@jiggins7919 said:

We lost to Duck Hodges. I pretty much gave up after that (with Steelers). I know we have a good time painting Jiggins as the worrier of the group and the dramatic ass clown, but if you actually read what I say I'm normally pretty close to the mark. Us beating Pittsburgh would be akin to a literal miracle. They KNOW they're going to win. Do you have any idea how difficult it is to beat someone when they expect to win? Do you guys know what Ben's record is against us? 

Didn't we beat their ass last year in the first game?  Or was that the tie?  

We were saddle big time in that game last year where the Duck beat us:   we were without Garrett....and with Freddie. 

@dutch-oven said:

I honesty never expect to beat the Steelers. I'm convinced they could switch out their roster with a Girl Scout troop from Aliquippa and after the game we'd all be talking about the 12 year old girl that gave Baker a concussion in the 3rd quarter. 

We lost to Duck Hodges. I pretty much gave up after that (with Steelers). I know we have a good time painting Jiggins as the worrier of the group and the dramatic ass clown, but if you actually read what I say I'm normally pretty close to the mark. Us beating Pittsburgh would be akin to a literal miracle. They KNOW they're going to win. Do you have any idea how difficult it is to beat someone when they expect to win? Do you guys know what Ben's record is against us? 

@hoorta said:

Just sayin'. You have any doubt the Browns would smear the Steelers if they were that decimated by no shows for the game?   

I do.

I honesty never expect to beat the Steelers. I'm convinced they could switch out their roster with a Girl Scout troop from Aliquippa and after the game we'd all be talking about the 12 year old girl that gave Baker a concussion in the 3rd quarter. 

@hoorta said:

Just sayin'. You have any doubt the Browns would smear the Steelers if they were that decimated by no shows for the game?   

Ahh,  OK,   you are saying that it would "help" the Browns if the same thing happened to them that happened to us.   Sure.