https://brownswire.usatoday.com/2023/01/03/browns-martin-emerson-jr-lockdown-22/

Given the 2023 increases to our top guys we need to be able to roll the current 2022 space onto next year.

For more detail read the link.

Even after including rolling all the 2022 space [33M] onto 2023, we're still left w only 9M space in 2023 to sign rookies and FA.  With no first-round that seems doable, but still rough and doesn't leave much space for someone big like Payne unless he'll take 1M 2023 salary. 

Current salary committed for 2023: 244M. 2023 cap: 225M.

@unsympathetic said:

this isn't fixed with just one guy -- Payne would be amazing of course.  But we can't only add payne -- our performance would be better if we had 3 guys beside Winfrey all above 55 rating even if they offered little vs pass other than preventing QB from stepping up.  Payne, Winfrey, and 2 rookies rated 36 isn't changing much....

Only thing for next year's cap.. 7.5 of Hooper's dead is sitting there [he was also 3.5 in 2022]. But that's done after 2023. Mayfield's 10.5 dead also is only 2022.

IMHO Payne is likely worth the risk, and if WAS would take a 4th plus allowing Browns to negotiate the extension, i'd do that in a heartbeat..

 You're correct, everything isn't just magically "fixed".  But if Payne and Davidson had been on roster week 4, we don't lose to ATL.  

 Sprinkle in Delpit busting a cloud coverage, likely don't lose to the jets either. 

Only thing for next year's cap.. 7.5 of Hooper's dead is sitting there [he was also 3.5 in 2022]. But that's done after 2023. Mayfield's 10.5 dead also is only 2022.

IMHO Payne is likely worth the risk, and if WAS would take a 4th plus allowing Browns to negotiate the extension, i'd do that in a heartbeat..

@korsou-dawg said:

This Browns-Commanders Trade Sends Daron Payne To Cleveland

https://www.nflanalysis.net/this-browns-commanders-trade-sends-daron-payne-to-cleveland/

Right up your alley @tiamat63?

Interesting.  A few thoughts

- To date, Payne has been an iron man on the field. He's missed 1 game in 5 years.  Best ability is availability.

- Still quite young at 25, and a former 1st round pick.   Those are two huge boxes checked for this front office.

- Concerns re: Cost after this season.   Unless that 'come to Jesus' moment has happened a lot earlier and a lot more intense than I expected, I don't think the Browns Brass will be willing to pay any IDL that amount of money who isn't someone like a Donald, Cox, Jones, etc etc.    You have to be a monster interior pass rusher for them to invest $$ in.     And I think they view Perrion as the future of the 3tech, and therefore the interior pass rush being cheap the next couple seasons.   (Did you get a chance to watch those links explaining the various gaps and techniques?  Makes this easier)

- What would WSH want in return? We have no 1st rounders to give, so tossing out a 2nd is risky business if you're trying to secure his services.  Even more so if you're talking multiple picks on top of a 2nd. The Rams say hello for that very reason.       On the flip side, if this team is parting ways with Clowney after this season, then the money on the DL might be there to spend...  but it's a lot in one basket.  Meaning this team has to draft and hit on another mid to late round edge prospect.     I leave the cap business to @unsympathetic  and his calculator.     I'm just here to identify the talent.   

 Hard to see this one happening from a trade/pick value all the way to potential near-future sticker shock.   The Dline, and the defense as a whole, would be immediately better for it though by a long way.  That's despite bringing a player in mid-season, which I'm not a fan of.      It's a big reason why I was in on going after Bravvion Roy a couple weeks ago. Fills a crucial role player need at a MUCH cheaper cost.  

 But would I have a grin if this front office somehow pulled it off? Absolutely.   

https://www.nflanalysis.net/this-browns-commanders-trade-sends-daron-payne-to-cleveland/

Right up your alley @tiamat63?

 As the phrase goes - "Keep your enemies closer".

 I've spoken about about the few defensive pillars coordinators are using to attack Lamar Jackson and how those things really haven't changed the last 4 seasons.   

- 5/6 man rushes.  

- 'fencing' technique from edge rushers, either both sides or the opposite sides.

- Occupying all gaps along the interior

- Man/match coverage, little to no zone. 

- DB's leveraging to take away positive breaking routes.  Forcing Lamar to consistently throw negative breaks and to the numbers.

 A couple things.  You might be hung up on the old school process of "you play zone when you face running QB's because man coverage can hurt you".   Which can be true, until it isn't.    That hinges on two main things.  The first being, are you gap sound and contain sound along the front? The second being, are you willing to live with a QB who still might bust a run or pass here and there?  If you're good with both, the NFL has really begun to catch up with Jackson as a passer.

 DC's that are usually in favor of installing coverage wrinkles during the week against top tier passers have clearly forgone that option in favor of placing more focus on limiting Lamar along their defensive front.  To me, this speaks of defenses saying they fear Lamar being mobile far more than being able to consistently (there's that word again) beat them with his mind, eyes and arm talent.  

 I figured I'd share this little screenshot while I'm charting some plays, because I really, if ever, see DB's with this type of inside leverage being used.   And it directly supports my conclusions about coaches believing Lamar is inaccurate when forced to throw certain types of routes and that they're willing to live with it.

- At the top (boundary) you don't have corners playing 'inside eye' technique, they've taken it a step further.   The perimeter boundary is full inside to outside shoulder.    The boundary nickel is even further inside shade, to the point he's a full body width length to Mark Andrews inside shoulder.    Now part of that could be to give Lamar another bluff to think that a nickel pressure might be coming.   But there's no DB or other defender remotely in the area to roll coverage over Andrews, so I'm dismissing that theory as quickly as I'm typing it.

- Finally, the field corner is playing heavy chains, but he is also a full body width inside of the Z receiver, with his hips turned inside.    

It's just insane to see that type of alignment in the NFL in 2022.   And if you know people or come across a conversation that involves anyone believing Lamar Jackson is a top tier passer, this might as well be right from Done Martindale's mouth saying that he disagrees with you.  

Of Course Bitonio

Are You Kidding Me Froholdt - Only 61 snaps.. but still

Conklin

Teller

Hudson - 163 snaps is a pretty good sample size.   The kids are going to be OK.

OBR Important Read: Building An Above-Avg IDL -- a study of the top 16 teams' 2023 salary spent, draft capital invested, and resulting PFF this year for each rostered IDL.  Can debate relative merit of rating method, but it's the same method applied to all teams so any error is consistent.

@unsympathetic said:

Something positive this way comes -- OT Jedrick is the NFL's top OT in passpro this season.  Conklin at 8th seems not shabby after a year of rehab.

 If you have a sub to their site, don't hesitate to post how the IOL looks per PFF.  I'm confident Pocic is going to grade out quite well. 

Edit: the return to form makes the Hudson situation that much better. Because now the Browns have options at RT, being they I'm pretty sure this is Jack's last year on his contract.

@korsou-dawg said:

@tiamat63 I admitted my lack of football literacy, and the extenuating cultural background. When you say 3tech, my mind goes: "I thought 2 techs was the max before getting ejected." 

I have googled the terms I am unfamiliar with, and found explanations on all sorts of sites, but no definitive sources of interest. Anything you could recommend in terms of sites or youtube channels to learn some of the finer points of formations, schemes and such?

Another one for good measure.

Because it ties directly into what I was saying about our interior getting reach blocked even in simple weak inside zone assignments. 

DL definitions, alignments, and techniques

@korsou-dawg said:

@tiamat63 I admitted my lack of football literacy, and the extenuating cultural background. When you say 3tech, my mind goes: "I thought 2 techs was the max before getting ejected." 

I have googled the terms I am unfamiliar with, and found explanations on all sorts of sites, but no definitive sources of interest. Anything you could recommend in terms of sites or youtube channels to learn some of the finer points of formations, schemes and such?

The bolded part had me DYING ?

 Can I recommend a channel?  Not really off the top of my head.,I'm not familiar with those channels that go over teaching the basics as, not trying to sound like a braggard here, never really needed to watch such things being that I grew up having them coached into me.

 I suppose I can run a quick little search for you...

Try that for starters. 

However, I'll give you a bit of cryptic foreshadowing here now...   if you're wanting a dedicated youtube channel that will give you condensed, yet highly detailed and easily digestible breakdowns the X's and O's of football concepts that is dedicated to The Browns, then stayed tuned because my next thread will be to announce the channel.

I'll answer your question in my thread to avoid the mess that is the gameday thread.

Re:  DePodesta.

 You and I have a mutual sort of 'disdain' for him, though I suspect mine might be for different reasons.

  Analytics are an interesting type of monster.  I use PFF for an example and the word 'dogma', because as an enterprise they use a good amount of proprietary metrics to determine their grades.    A method I'm not privy to myself, unfortunately.  I always find I can easier deconstruct and therefore criticize something when I'm heavily versed in it.

 The method and the resulting grade is sort of sacred to them.   And this is where I circle back around to the word dogma because, as Stefanski said "we live and die by the analytics".   It was a slight deflection of a question, or more accurately, it was an answer that basically boils down to circular logic.    The analytic driven crowd of evaluation has their place in sports. I'm sorry to tell you, that even means football.   But like any religious sect, the circular logic is used when "outside" forces of pragmatic observance question said religion (I.E. analytics)   Example: God is always good and right.  Why?  Because God says so.    (not to get into religious debate here, just an example)

 I've said it on this board multiple times, I don't adhere to any one philosophy in my evaluation of draft prospects, current NFL players or coaches.  Only because the old school " hE's JuSt A fOOtBall PlaYer" crowd ends up with Tim Tebow, meanwhile the "Project A runs at a 17 degree angle at 20.8MPH, which is 8% faster than the corresponding apple Iphone x19", or as shorten by saying, a bunch of fucking nerds who have never played a down of football in their lives.     Analytics and stat nerds have a huge hand in crafting offensive and defensive game plans.  I like to know play call strategy of my opponents on downs, distances, personnel groupings, side of the field, hash marks, what they had for dinner, mercury in retrograde, whose birthday it is, yada yada.   ANY bit of information I can get is a potential tool to help craft the arsenal in this case.   But I'm talking apples to apples.  NFL data and performance compared to other NFL teams and players.

 Where I find grading and models lacking, such as PFF, is in their collegiate football to NFL projections.  Most notably the draft.   I've found when I do my own grades for NFL players, their services and mine don't always differ all that much. We might have some tiffs here or there, but I appreciate the work they do.  Because the landscape of NFL grading is a bit more static in comparison to college football.  I spoke with a PFF data scientist about this sort of thing during the 2019 season and how Bakers struggles aren't quite the "chicken or the egg" they made it to be.  

 Where we often WILDLY differ is looking at college prospects.    At the height of the Browns "money ball" movement under Sashi Brown, the Browns took Corey Coleman and Emmanual Ogbah (I'm not going back to spell check those names) in 2016.

- Corey Coleman was PFF's #1 rated receiver.

 You are welcomed to use the search function and to go back to find my evaluation of him.  I was not kind in the least.  

- Ogbah was PFF's #1 rated pass rusher at the top of the 2nd round.

You are also welcome to use the search function and to find my thoughts on him.  I was a bit more gentle, but not happy.

 And then it hit me, that's when I had my epiphany.  Going back to my conversation with the PFF "data scientist".  These guys, like I said above, are fucking nerds.  And sure, they're smart, but almost all of them have never played a meaningful down of football.  So how they're taught to grade in a vacuum of the NFL is MUCH easier than actually taking a raw prospect and 'parsing him out' so to speak.     

Grades for WR's like

- Footwork

- Route quality

- Hand placement

- Offensive structure 

- Sight adjustments/route adjustments

- Body positioning 

  They are susceptible to a much more "huh?" type of grade from the guys who have flat out never taken a snap before on the field. If I were to talk about the merits of Baylor's offense as it related to Corey Coleman's performance and therefore draft stock, I doubt I would have gotten anything back worth hearing from the PFF staff I had spoken with.   So their grading bias, their model, doesn't account for things they simply just don't know.  This is why you need people in those circles who have actually put on a fucking helmet before.   Otherwise you're in a religious sect that, as I said at the start of this, uses your own hand-crafted dogma, to circular logic your way back around to their doctrine of faith that can't be questioned - the "analytics".   Or the time old question, is math discovered or invented? 

 How do I finally tie this into Depodesta?   We know he is a believer in money ball.  I also know he has NEVER taken a single football snap, which Andrew Berry actually has.      So I have to ask myself, was the nightmare that became the Browns IDL all unforeseen or intentionally neglected? 

- If Unforeseen - What quality type of professional organization was so blind to what my amateur eyes weren't?  I'm not making six figures to do this.  And worse, I made money betting against the Browns knowing full well what was coming.

- If intentionally neglected, what poorly designed system lead them to this conclusion? Did we believe we could put warm bodies over the ball and somehow NOT suffer for it?  Where was the "traditional" scouting voices on that getting in DePO's ear then?       Was it Deshaun's arrival that had them look at the IOL and go "we must protect our prize!!!"   In which case, I can't absolve the IDL sin then.  Because it doesn't take much to pick your head up and go, "Oh yeah, we can't forget them either"  Because this 2nd scenario is an admission that the front office understands the importance of building inside to out along your trenches.    

3rd, I suppose - Incompetence.  What level of group think somehow convinced these guys that Tommy Togiai and Jordan Elliot would be able to hold the fort down? Did they not believe that protecting the LB's and secondary was a necessity?   

 And finally, is there room or even ability for nuance and amendments to the analytical process of personnel evaluation both draft and on current roster?  Can we improve the team building philosophy now that we're forced to confront evidence that it doesn't work?   Or are we going back to "God is right because god says so ANALYTICS RAWR" ?!?

   I once studied six sigma and one of the lines was "continuous self improvement".   Which is not possible without introspection.   So it begs the question, can Berry and Depo come out and take some deserved criticism and responsibility for the shortcomings of this team, or will they throw Joe Woods under the bus?

 My heart says the latter, but for 3 different reasons.  Either the 1st reason is they want to preserve their own heads and jobs. The 2nd reason is the lack the ability to say "We were wrong, we need to analyze our process and do better".  The latter almost being an intimate admission which is a tell of maturity both professional and personal level.    The 3rd reason is most frightening - they actually believe the roster they've constructed is great and that the coaches are the problem. 

 And if any of those are true, can I submit my resume' to them while I work from home?  I have a ton of great ideas to help right the ship and get Browns fans what they deserve.

Remember, we have a Browns Board discord.  Should anyone want to join in on the football talk regardless of who's playing.  

https://discord.gg/bAGzcfWn

@gumby73 said:

@tiamat63

in your opinion..

Has Martin Emerson shown enough to keep ahead of Greedy Williams if/when Greedy returns?

Remember when we watched a browns rookie named Buster Skrine get picked on? Martin 'buster 2.0' Emerson has appeared..    

Berry drafting Martin Emerson, is looking promising lacking his 40 speed.. but he's shown sticking on guys like Elmer's glue 

thanks, when ya can get to it... gone to work

Good question.  I suppose it depends on how fast the coaching staff feels greedy can be up to game speed. 

Personally? I feel like Martin should stay on the field.  For two big reasons. 

- He's picked up his game the last few weeks. I don't see him like he was week 1 and 2, opening his hips so damn early and leaving himself vulnerable.  Being a bit more patient in his phase and starting to understand he has a top tier wingspan which is a weapon to use.  So far, we've picked back to back rookie corners that have shown serious promise early in their careers.   What completions Em has given up, he does a good job limiting YAC damage and getting people to the ground. 

- Physical play as it relates to injury. No secret, Greedy has an extensive injury history. And it sucks because he was starting to come into his own.  Until this front 7 is fixed, these DBs are going to be under fire in run fits at every level. And we've seen some early play from Denzel showing that he wants no part in getting physical at the line when it's critical that he does so.  I can't blame him, dude is about 5'11 and a feather under 190lbs.  That's literally like me being asked to play contain on a gap exchange in the NFL.  I mean, I'll do it, but it's gonna hurt. 

Anywho, because of said injury history, can I trust that Greedy will still attack ball carriers and get physical in the running game without shying away for fear of further risk to his body?  Doesn't take much, (Eric Wright) for offenses to say we're going to test the manhood of your corners on our perimeter running game.     Probably why I hold antoine Winfield in such high esteem. There was a story about Steven Jackson telling his lead to pick off Winfield and he'd take his chances with the safeties should they both clear the line clean.  That's high praise from a RB. 

 Long and short, rookie has given me too much to like so far for me to supplant him with an injury prone CB who would be working to knock rust off.

@korsou-dawg said:

Makes little sense to keep studying tape of our IDL, when they are just THAT bad.

Remember you also have been watching Pocic, and were moderately positive. Did see a play against the Bolts were a defender flew by him down the middle, resulting in a big loss. Have you come across that play perhaps?

- you're right, and as of this past outing, I've turned my attention away from the IDL themselves.  Problem with that is, when I watch the linebackers play and their alignments, the influence of a piss poor IDL is noticeable in their play even pre snap. So it's difficult to just put an eye patch, so to speak, over that position group when watching the defense.  I'll post an example later. 

- and yes, I do plan on focusing on Pocic and the OT situation dealing with Khalil Mack's edge rush. First thing I did was chart plays for the LAC offense because I wanted to see how their opening script was. Finished that up last night, ill move onto the new pursuits this afternoon.

in your opinion..

Has Martin Emerson shown enough to keep ahead of Greedy Williams if/when Greedy returns?

Remember when we watched a browns rookie named Buster Skrine get picked on? Martin 'buster 2.0' Emerson has appeared..    

Berry drafting Martin Emerson, is looking promising lacking his 40 speed.. but he's shown sticking on guys like Elmer's glue 

thanks, when ya can get to it... gone to work

@tiamat63 said:

If only somebody, ANYBODY could have seen this one a comin'....

Makes little sense to keep studying tape of our IDL, when they are just THAT bad.

Remember you also have been watching Pocic, and were moderately positive. Did see a play against the Bolts were a defender flew by him down the middle, resulting in a big loss. Have you come across that play perhaps?

@unsympathetic said:

Browns sign NT Tyeler Davison and his 6'2 305# frame to PS.

He was cut by Falcons in a cap dump before this season.   Davison radar chart // RAS

Now do Linval Joseph, which he should have done at the start.. Take the chance that his 330# and otherworldly athleticism hasn't lost a step..

It has, but that doesn't mean he still wouldn't be more effective than what we currently have.

 Davison would replace Togiai, Linval would take Jordan's spot.   At that point, somebody has to be cut around the roster if you're to keep 5 IDL.    This is still a band-aid solution to this season which now requires a look in the mirror of how the front office could so terribly devalue the position group.  And a long-term amendment to the team building philosophy and talent evaluation placed upon that position.   But at least this is an admission they fucked up.  

 Like I said, if the NFL is going to cycle back around to 2 high defenses, you need to place focus on the Dline.  

 The NFL arms race that was placing such dire importance on DB's, has quickly flipped to the front 7 with the advent of 2 high.  Which, I'd like to think was inadvertently discovered by Joe Woods against the Chiefs in the divisional round.   Teams took notice of the lack of talent in the secondary, but the more methodical pace KC had to show in order to score.  Same same for week 1 last season.  The numbers have only gone up since then against similarly built rosters - BUF, LAC and CIN being the biggies.  It's no coincidence the looks the Bengals have struggled against without getting their ground game working.   I've noticed the Chiefs run/pass ratio this year has moved by almost 4 percentage points as well.   KC is running more into light box counts, as they should.     

 The response isn't to add more weapons, it's to return to the running game as more than an afterthought.

He was cut by Falcons in a cap dump before this season.   Davison radar chart // RAS

Now do Linval Joseph, which he should have done at the start.. Take the chance that his 330# and otherworldly athleticism hasn't lost a step..

 Alex Wrights high and unbalanced, you'll see me mention that in my post.  It's how he played at Georgia and it hasn't had time to be coached out of him yet. 

 Double T is 6'1 so that helps, but Larry Johnson is one of the best in the business.  So fundamental play from him isn't my concern, just his overall ability vs NFL talent. 

Jordan Elliots isn't terrible, I get he's flowing to play side zone, so long as he gets lower on contact, I'm good with it.  Rochelle is a 7th round camp bubble who has surprisingly stuck around, I'm not expecting much from him on the backside of the play.  Would it have been nice if he stayed low, crashed and found a way to track down? Yeah, but he isn't prime Khalil Mack either. 

 Pads are a the biggest problem with the rookies. I have an expectation of that.  But even if Jordan Elliot played low(er), he'd still lose.    I suspect the added weight, 15-20lbs, that the coaching staff spoke of hasn't been sitting well with him.   What burst he had looks all but gone and his pad level might reflect carrying the added weight.  The Billy Winn effect. 

 We need an infusion of talent. Nothing less with will fix this situation. 

@tiamat63 said:

Let's go over some early results from today.  On that first ATL drive, I saw something awfully familiar that I was worried about - Alex Wright.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Z gets the seal on the edge vs Wright for a couple reasons.

- He's high out of his stance

- Unbalanced

- Working upfield from his first step too fast

- Lack of awareness on the reduced split and what might come his way.    This one generally speaks to football IQ which, you need A LOT of snaps to start to develop.  But there's also a problem with that, because this is a pretty fundamental toss and pull call.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Coaches call it gap stealing, some also call it gap "splitting" since you give the RB an additional read point and cut option.

 Either way, this type of play gives the RG and LG an easy release to the 2nd level.  Your LB's don't stand a chance when they have 300lb bodies on them that fast.   The ATL line here does a good job picking off the lead pursuit in Taki and Phillips.  And because cut blocking is now illegal, getting the a big body to the edge is like stealing candy. No DB's can go low on the big guys now.    I'll check back at the end of the year, but I'd be willing to bet running designs based on the pulling game to the perimeter shoot up quite a bit by the end of this season.    Not that getting blockers on smaller CB's wasn't an idea to begin with, but now you've given almost no way for those CB's to take on lineman without a cut.  

 Either way, in this following frame, Wright came out so high and fast in his stance, Drake London really didn't take much to seal him inside and continue washing him down the line.   He's so terribly out of balance, he never had a chance to recover.  And this is where height works against you if you don't play with consistently low pad level.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Final shot with the open lanes to the edge.   Only real way to shut this down is get ahead of it and turn it back inside to pursuit.  But then you need your 1tech, Togiai, to be able to crash onto the call carrier.   The center crosses Tommy's face, which you can't allow when you're playing that 1tech, and turns his shoulders back inside to prevent him from flowing down the line and effecting the play.

 This first play is, in a nutshell, the state of the Browns Defensive Line.  Especially without Myles or Clowney.  It's a bottom 5 group at best.   You have a nose who isn't a starter, a 3tech in Jordan Elliot who is quality depth and little else.  A rookie edge in Alex Wright who isn't ready for this sort of role, and might never be ready.   Then you have Rochelle (spell check) who is a nice story and fights hard, but would be a camp casualty on a lot of teams.

 This is why I'm passionate about creating work that holds up over time.  Because I can go back to reference that work and those notes, and see how things string out beyond the vacuum of that play.   So if you're wondering why I said "looked familiar"....

 Please refer to the 28th-ish post in this thread linked below from my breakdown of Alex Wright.   A similar design on the seal and pull to his side that he lost BAD on vs Georgia.  For reference, that's a Georgia team who has bodies that will play in the NFL.  Specifically why I went looking for that game. 

ATL likely saw this, especially since Alex a rookie.  I have no doubt they have assistants who go back this far to dig on tape on how to attack rookie players beyond the few games of NFL work he's had.

Offenses will continue to attack Alex Wrights side until he punishes them for doing so.   And this defense has yet another crack in the fortress wall to account for.

(28th post, 3rd page)

/topic/64048

Look at the pad heights up front; and see how fast they get too high.  #93 Tommy Togiai looks like he is the least of all evils but he's only 6'2".  I'm happy to say, I rarely ever have to complain about Myles Garrett's pad height coming off the ball.

For some reason,  the bad heights aren't exclusive to coming off the ball up front.  The tackling is often way too high.  I can't even tell you how many times I see Delpit up around the shoulders when he's trying to tackle someone.