@packernation said:

You seem to pick mostly Chalk. In sports betting you really make no money on Chalk games. 

For what we were going to do, you can use the Chalk games for your highest number game. So, you would put the Niners at 13 and then you get 13 points if the Niners win by over 7. If you think Wash will beat the Browns by more than 3, then you put that game at 12. Just those 2 games would give you 25 points if you hit them.

Now me, I would take Wash-3, but I would put it at 5 because I am not all that confident that Wash will win by 4 or more. You could lose your 12 points if Washington wins by 3, then it's a push and removed all together.

In betting you want to put a lot of underdogs in your parlay cuz if you win it, then more money. 

You need to know about my bad luck in a parlay last time in Vegas. I had a 2 game baseball parlay and had won the first and had a 9-0 lead in the second about 4 innings into the game. So I treated myself to a steak dinner with part of my sure winnings, played a little slots, came back to collect and found my f'n team had blown that whole lead and lost the game. So I was out the money for the bet plus about half as much more for the steak dinner. Haven't played a parlay since.  LOL!?

@texasag1969 said:

When I'm position to pick and choose that's what I do. I don't pretend to know all the teams in depth, just a few. And yeah, Patriots I normally wouldn't touch, but I said best 4. In Vegas I would likely just parlay Ravens and Commanders, my two best picks. I selected the 49ers D in my FFL which is why I went with them. Pretty solid.

EDIT & PS-you may have noticed I did not pick the Texas A&M vs #9 Missouri game this week. No way I could have foreseen A&M up 41 -7 with 11 minutes to go 4th Q.

You seem to pick mostly Chalk. In sports betting you really make no money on Chalk games. 

For what we were going to do, you can use the Chalk games for your highest number game. So, you would put the Niners at 13 and then you get 13 points if the Niners win by over 7. If you think Wash will beat the Browns by more than 3, then you put that game at 12. Just those 2 games would give you 25 points if you hit them.

Now me, I would take Wash-3, but I would put it at 5 because I am not all that confident that Wash will win by 4 or more. You could lose your 12 points if Washington wins by 3, then it's a push and removed all together.

In betting you want to put a lot of underdogs in your parlay cuz if you win it, then more money. 

@packernation said:

Why can't you pick of every game? No money involved. Only reason you would do a 4 or 6  game Parlay is for money. See, you scared to pick every game against me.?

Only 13 games and you ducking me.?

Wow, exciting we both pick the Ravens,and 49ers. And I pick the Bills +1 and Seattle-7 Fun.?

When I'm position to pick and choose that's what I do. I don't pretend to know all the teams in depth, just a few. And yeah, Patriots I normally wouldn't touch, but I said best 4. In Vegas I would likely just parlay Ravens and Commanders, my two best picks. I selected the 49ers D in my FFL which is why I went with them. Pretty solid.

EDIT & PS-you may have noticed I did not pick the Texas A&M vs #9 Missouri game this week. No way I could have foreseen A&M up 41 -7 with 11 minutes to go 4th Q.

@texasag1969 said:

I would never try to pick every game if I were in Vegas. I'll pick my 4 best and you pick yours. Some may be the same game and some different. From this I will take the Commanders -3, The Ravens -2.5, 49ers -7.5 and Patriots +1. Of course if I were there I'd shop around for the best one on each game, but these seem to be pretty much a consensus with the exception of 49ers -7 to -7.5.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

Why can't you pick of every game? No money involved. Only reason you would do a 4 or 6  game Parlay is for money. See, you scared to pick every game against me.?

Only 13 games and you ducking me.?

Wow, exciting we both pick the Ravens,and 49ers. And I pick the Bills +1 and Seattle-7 Fun.?

@packernation said:

Ok, you and I will do picks this week for all this weeks NFL games, if you want to, unless you scared? Sunday and Monday games. Thursday already played and out.

Just an explanation in case you need one:

I can post all the games and the spreads. There are 13 games. So you rank them 1 thru 13. Put 13 on the game you're most confident in your pick, and 1 on the game least confident in, and so on.

Tally up points and the winner has the most points.

Probably should do in a separate thread.

I would never try to pick every game if I were in Vegas. I'll pick my 4 best and you pick yours. Some may be the same game and some different. From this I will take the Commanders -3, The Ravens -2.5, 49ers -7.5 and Patriots +1. Of course if I were there I'd shop around for the best one on each game, but these seem to be pretty much a consensus with the exception of 49ers -7 to -7.5.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

@texasag1969 said:

And you just showed 4 people that prove my point. They are terrible pickers. 1 out of 16 overall? LOL! I could do better with a magic 8 ball.?? 

Will the Browns lose by more than 3 points?  "It is decidedly so."

Ok, you and I will do picks(obviously using the spread) this week for all this weeks NFL games, if u want to, unless you scared? Sunday and Monday games. Thursday already played and out.

Just an explanation in case you need one:

I can post all the games and the spreads. There are 13 games. So you rank them 1 thru 13. Put 13 on the game you're most confident in your pick, and 1 on the game least confident in, and so on.

Tally up points and the winner has the most points.

Probably should do in a separate thread.

@packernation said:

? You do realize that every team has injuries?

You do realize we understand this as our '#1' QB and our favorite player Chubb was injured all last year and we made it to the playoffs?

This year is different. Our D isn't exactly dominating and we're not playing well, injuries or whatever, it's just a simple fact this year.

I'm as optimistic as anyone but the Browns need to show real life before I get my hopes up this year.

@packernation said:

? You do realize that every team has injuries? Every fan base feels their team has the most. Every team has guys out and several questionable. Questionable is like the old probable. Having 5 questionable and 5 out is nothing to panic about.

And you just showed 4 people that prove my point. They are terrible pickers. 1 out of 16 overall? LOL! I could do better with a magic 8 ball.?? 

Will the Browns lose by more than 3 points?  "It is decidedly so."

@texasag1969 said:

Sure looks like disaster to me. Our D will be deadening in the 4th Q. The spread would be closer to +13 than +3. Split the difference and say +8.

? You do realize that every team has injuries? Every fan base feels their team has the most. Every team has guys out and several questionable. Questionable is like the old probable. Having 5 questionable and 5 out is nothing to panic about.

@orion said:

I'm thinking that our offense will consist of five backups.  ?

WR - starter,  LT - backup to the backup,  LG - starter,  C - starter,  RG - rookie 3rd round pick backup,  RT - backup,  WR - starter, 

TE - backup,  QB - starter,  RB - backup,  WR - starter

Sure looks like disaster to me. Our D will be deadening in the 4th Q. The spread would be closer to +13 than +3. Split the difference and say +8.

WR - starter,  LT - backup to the backup,  LG - starter,  C - starter,  RG - rookie 3rd round pick backup,  RT - backup,  WR - starter, 

TE - backup,  QB - starter,  RB - backup,  WR - starter

@syd said:

IMO about the only guy that might be up for the game would be Dunn.  And he's a career backup.  

@syd said:

My inner 13 year old got a big laugh out of…

P. Strong - questionable

I’m gonna miss this one, work obligations and not on my local tv anyway. I’m kinda thankful l’m not missing Chubb’s 2024 debut. I figure he’s still working up to game speed and l want that debut to go well. 

He’s a true career 5 yards per carry guy and l want all the success for him. 

@flugel said:

Beverage of choice this Sunday - decaf coffee 

Get out. 

@orion said:

Well....our running attack ended last season ranked 12th and we've steadily marched down the rankings, as I predicted before game #1.  This is not because our RB's suck.  We'd be having much the same production with Chubb in the lineup.  Most of our starting OLinemen have been injured all season.  The injured OL is also reflected in the league leading 19 sacks.  Are some of those sacks on Watson?  Sure.  But that's the case on every team to one degree or another.  

Our #1 ranked defense of last year is in the bottom half of the league against the run and only cracked the top 10 in pass D after last week's game.  

We are in a world of $#!+.  The Commanders are sporting a pretty good offense, stats-wise.  Conversely, their defense is vulnerable...but to who?  Certainly we can't take advantage of that with our 26th & 28th ranked offense.  And that's not going to change until we can get some OLinemen in here.  (April?)

Before week one I did my Must Win Games thing.  One criteria of making the playoffs is beating the teams that you are supposed to beat.  We just lost two of those games in a row.  This would be the third.  That pretty much means that we're not supposed to beat anyone this year...which means, no playoffs.  This leaves us with just one thing...Watson.  Will he progress and get back to the brand of QB that he was supposed to be.  That's the remaining purpose of this season, to me anyway.

Beverage of choice this Sunday - Decaff Coffee.  If the ole saying "2 wrongs don't make a right" is true - I don't recommend drinking depressants while watching the depressants.

Remember what I told you about the Must Win Games?  Please forget it.  Evidently, it only applied to other teams coming off double-digit wins...

@packernation said:

Your picks always seem like you are low key trying to make people lose money.? Just playin'

I take the Browns getting 3.5. I think it actually is 3 right now and Washington is at home. I still have some faith in the Browns.

In the if anyone cares department:

Packers-3 @ Rams. You know who I am going with, but I never bet Packers games. Too much emotional investment to be worrying about my parlay.

@tiamat63 said:

Faith and emotional investment tend to go hand in hand.  

There isn't a single metric by which you should be taking the Browns to cover.   Especially against a surging young offense like WSH. 

Amen tia. LOL!?

@tiamat63 said:

Faith and emotional investment tend to go hand in hand.  

There isn't a single metric by which you should be taking the Browns to cover.   Especially against a surging young offense like WSH. 

Never betting Packers games was the too much emotional investment part.

Still having some faith in the Browns is coupled with not betting chalk.

@packernation said:

I take the Browns getting 3.5 I still have some faith in the Browns.

 emotional investment 

Faith and emotional investment tend to go hand in hand.  

There isn't a single metric by which you should be taking the Browns to cover.   Especially against a surging young offense like WSH. 

Browns fans can watch the Pack after Browns@Wash.

This week, those of us in Cincy will join my forsaken homies in Van Wert as the only Ohioans to not get the Browns game. Usually it’s the Bengals screwing us, but this week it’s Arizona and San Francisco? Ok then. 

But Abilene, Texas? You’re good, along with a good chunk of north Texas and south Oklahoma. Oklahoma is arguably the funniest looking state. It’s like it’s trying to spoon Texas.

For some reason northwest Louisiana is all about the Browns this week. 

As expected the DC area, and a good chunk of northeastern states are getting the Browns. Except for Baltimore. They are opting for…Arizona and San Francisco?

And basically LA and Death Valley and the Pacific northwest round out our Browns game watchers. Clearly they’re not interested in Arizona or San Francisco.

https://506sports.com/nfl.php?yr=2024&wk=5