@tiamat63 said:

  To me, that favors the team with the superior running game.  O/U is already dipped below the key of 41.  Part of me still wants to play the under at 39.5.    

? ? ? 

If you're going to send pressures, you have to make damn sure you identify who is tracking him and closing short space. 

@syd said:

I just bet The Browns at +5.5  I also bet Allen to throw at least one pick

Took it at 39.5.  Forecast wasn't kind. 

@sdbacker80 said:

Browns +4.5 all day long especially given the weather 

I just bet The Browns at +5.5  I also bet Allen to throw at least one pick

@orion said:

If my phone thinks it's in Cleveland, it says that it might be rainy right up through the start of the game.  High temp 40.

The weather is the same for both teams.  Everybody gets wet.  The ball and the field is slipperier for everyone.  Put a retractable dome on it and make everyone comfortable.

looks like  crap weather all the through the Tennessee game, you lucky Basterds (((sarcasm)))

Most of Ohio is good, save for the southern tip and my forsaken homies in Van Wert. MI and WI are in the house, as is most of MN and IA.

And you can go west young man to see the Browns this week. CA, WA, OR, NV, AZ, AK, UT, ID, and the western 4th of CO.

NM does not get the game though, which is a real shame because it’s the home of Pistachio Land, and who doesn’t want to watch a Browns game under the shadow of a giant pistachio? I’m sure you all know that Testeverde means “green nut” in Latin. 

@sdbacker80 said:

I find it hard to believe we would get many two high safety looks. Aside from Sunday (one play) in 12 weeks what explosiveness have we have shown?  

Two-Bond and Jeudy who proceeded to get it stripped.

@sdbacker80 said:

what explosiveness have we have shown?  

None through the passing game.......except now  we're playing a QB that DOES like to look for a big play.

This is interesting if true.   I tend to think the offensive meltdowns can’t be boiled down to one issue the offensive line being an easy target but if we block upfront we can’t separate and catch the ball consistently.  Next play we see a missed assignment pressure and throw away or sack.  Next play WR springs open QB misses the read. 
 

I find it hard to believe we would get many two high safety looks. Aside from Sunday (one play) in 12 weeks what explosiveness have we have shown?  

@calfoxwc said:

well...the Browns' defense is rated #2 here.

Yeah, I just use NFL.com and their total yardages for the teams.  They don't have a yards/game category for aligning the teams...and I'm not going through that kind of effort...so the yards per game is accurate...but the rankings just go off of total yards so the bye week(s) skew the total yards to some extent...and thus the rankings.  But you get the general idea with the rankings while the yards/game pretty much tell the story.  The Bye weeks are over after this week.

@sdbacker80 said:

Browns +4.5 all day long especially given the weather 

well...the Browns' defense is rated #2 here.

and the niners......they are rated........#22.

Wish the Browns oline was solid...

https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2025-nfl-defense-rankings-team-pass-and-rush-stats

Both teams had multiple players not practicing on Wednesday or limited in practice due to rest:

@mddawg said:

But the measures to counter the deep throws will open up the run game.

 Most of what happened from the Raiders game were busts by the defensive front and Maxx Crosby getting tired of being chipped.  They lost rush lane integrity when they had no business doing so and Sanders exploited it through buying time with his legs. 

 Fix the gap integrity and you fix the bulk of the issue. 

@mddawg said:

Quinshon only needs a glimpse of daylight to break a big one, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

 This plays into my first comment but also the largest contributor to the systemic offensive failures on this team - the OL. 

 I'm shocked that media, fans and analysts haven't mentioned the amount of light box counts defenses have been able to play and limit the running game with.  This goes back as far as week 1 vs CIN. 

Duo, power, Vertical zone, outside zone, iso...  doesn't matter.  This OL (and the TEs) have been so hit and miss blocking that individual defeats happen almost every series.  When they do, it ends up being TFL or TFNG, which is why we're high up the list in surrendering TFL.  The offense stalls out because we don't have the QB, pass catchers or pass pro to play catch up. 

 This plays into, I guess I'll call it the current NFL defensive "meta" of 3 and 4 deep, especially the latter with these umbrella coverages, and bringing DBs from depth.  

 Under Stefanski with a better OL and Chubb we punished these looks by efficiently running the ball and ripping off explosive plays with it.  Now defenses aren't having to play that +1 in the box to limit the running game.  The OL and TEs aren't making and sustaining blocks.  This is biggest reason the other staple of Stefanskis offense, the 5 & 7 step drop play action game, has struggled all season.   Defenses, when they have the talent up front, can play the +1 on the backend, patiently invite the Browns to run and not surrender explosive passing plays. 

 QJ can only do so much. Unless he's Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson, he's going to have to continue to create his own running room.  

 It'll be an interesting game this week and the weather might be questionable.  To me, that favors the team with the superior running game.  O/U is already dipped below the key of 41.  Part of me still wants to play the under at 39.5.    

@tiamat63 said:

Not exactly a tall task. 

Panthers are 28th in scoring offense and 22nd overall.  But they are 10th in rushing. 

Their numbers are inflated because of putting up 30 twice against one divisional opponent and 30 against a terrible Cowboys defense. 

 That's not to say they might not play well against the Browns offense.  Shedeur had his moments but there were some bad tendencies, dating as far back as preseason 1&3, that showed up between the explosive throws against the Raiders. 

 The problem is - the flashes Shedeur showed are much more easily countered by a defense within a week than the weaknesses he showed to be quickly correct in that same time frame. 

Which tendencies showed up again? No spinning in this game which was evident in the prior games. However the measures to counter the deep throws will open up the run game. Quinshon only needs a glimpse of daylight to break a big one, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

@texasag1969 said:

They made the Carolina offense look inept. 

Not exactly a tall task. 

Panthers are 28th in scoring offense and 22nd overall.  But they are 10th in rushing. 

Their numbers are inflated because of putting up 30 twice against one divisional opponent and 30 against a terrible Cowboys defense. 

 That's not to say they might not play well against the Browns offense.  Shedeur had his moments but there were some bad tendencies, dating as far back as preseason 1&3, that showed up between the explosive throws against the Raiders. 

 The problem is - the flashes Shedeur showed are much more easily countered by a defense within a week than the weaknesses he showed to be quickly correct in that same time frame. 

@mddawg said:

I said Saleh's a great coordinator not the overall D. It's just overachieving despite losing two pro bowlers.

Pretty much what I described too. They made the Carolina offense look inept. Our offense is not any better than them.

@tiamat63 said:

18th in PGG

5th in total yards surrendered

9th in yards per play allowed

3rd most 1st downs allowed passing

19th in YPC allowed

15th in 1st down rushes allowed

They play hard for Saleh, who I feel is a good DC.   But there isn't really any objective measure by which they've been "great"

I said Saleh's a great coordinator not the overall D. It's just overachieving despite losing two pro bowlers.

@texasag1969 said:

SF has a great D despite several injuries.

18th in PGG

5th in total yards surrendered

9th in yards per play allowed

3rd most 1st downs allowed passing

19th in YPC allowed

15th in 1st down rushes allowed

They play hard for Saleh, who I feel is a good DC.   But there isn't really any objective measure by which they've been "great"

@orion said:

That's what you do to rookies.  

I just hope it's not a repeat of preseason.  Against Carolina he didn't do badly.  He played decent.  Then in his next game against the Rams he looked awful.  Turning his back to the LOS, running backwards while waving the ball all over the place....

Yeah, he needs to show continued growth and not regress. Saleh's a great D coordinator and has overachieved despite the injuries. I expect a lot of stunts and sim pressures to confuse him, let's hope Stef and Rees provide him with enough break glass plays and the WRs don't give up on their routes (looking at you Tillman) on extended plays like they did last game.

@orion said:

That's what you do to rookies.  

I just hope it's not a repeat of preseason.  Against Carolina he didn't do badly.  He played decent.  Then in his next game against the Rams he looked awful.  Turning his back to the LOS, running backwards while waving the ball all over the place....

SF has a great D despite several injuries.

@syd said:

I bet the 9 er's come up with some crazy ass blitz packages to fuck with Shedeur's head

That's what you do to rookies.  

I just hope it's not a repeat of preseason.  Against Carolina he didn't do badly.  He played decent.  Then in his next game against the Rams he looked awful.  Turning his back to the LOS, running backwards while waving the ball all over the place....