Should Browns pursue Peppers
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I definitely see us contending in 2011. Hell, given the parity, etc. of the league, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the Browns could be in the hunt for a playoff spot this coming year. If we could go from 4-12 in 2006 to 10-6 in 2007, why could we not go from 5-11 this year to 10-6 next year. Obviously it will take some doing, and I am not necessarily anticipating it, but it is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility. In fact, it happens all the time in the NFL. The Saints went from 8-8 to Super Bowl Champs. Perhaps a cog like Peppers would be an element to get us into contention.
Prepare yourself, this is a doozy.
It's not beyond the realm of possibility, sure. But I don't think theres a high statistical chance in its favor. Sure, I guess one could argue that each team has the exact same chances in the offseason at winning the upcoming Super Bowl, but we all know that's not how it works. The odds are stacked in our favor, we're a young team with young talent, a quarterback "controversy", a new front office, and a coaching staff in it's second year. We'd have to overcome a lot to make it into the postseason.
The Saints were a different story. They were a team right on the cusp of being good, but had experienced some bad breaks. Their offense and defense was pretty solid last season, they didn't have to make too many offseason moves (especially at the skill positions). Their coaching staff remained virtually unchanged, and they had a strong front office already in place. It's a tale of two cities, really. Not saying it can't happen with us, because it can. But you have to admit, it is highly unlikely.
As for the addition of Peppers- generally, I'm against it. I live in South Carolina, and have attened many a Panthers game. My close friend is a gigantic Panthers fan, and Julius Peppers is his number two all-time favorite Panther, behind Chris Weinke. I think Ricky Proehl is also included somewhere in there, actually. That isn't important. What is important, however, is the fact that I have seen Julius Peppers in person at least once a year for his entire career. The guy is a beast, I would have loved to have gotten him....a couple of years ago. He's a freak of nature, and he's easily the best 4-3 defensive end in the league.
But, as people have mentioned countless times, he's getting old. I still think he would have a couple solid years of performance in him if he were to stay in the 4-3. Sadly, he wants to transition to OLB in the 3-4. That, I believe, will severly limit his production. I'm not saying he won't catch on, but I don't believe he'll be getting 10-12 sacks a season, either. To me, if we're going to pay top dollar for a player (especially at his age), I would like his production value to either increase or, at the very least, stay consistent.
Looking at it rationally, it will take him probably a full season to transition fully into the OLB position. Maybe 8 games if we're lucky. His sack numbers will surely have taken a hit during the transitional phase. Then, to add to that, he will playing a position that is put into coverage slightly more than what he has currently been playing at. Peppers is put into coverage more than any defensive end in the NFL, I understand that. But I still believe that the coverage/blitz ratio will be slightly higher than what he's currently sitting at.
For the sake of argument, let's say that the ratio stays the same, and he rushes the QB just as often as he had in Carolina. Peppers' biggest talent is his quickness. He's flat out fast, definitely. But the thing that has given him the most success is his quickness off the ball. Peppers isn't one to work off a block, if he gets a hat on him right away he's normally blocked for the duration of that play. There's occasions he throws a power move in there, but that's the exception, not the rule. He excels at that first step off the ball, either beating a tackle around the edge or spinning back inside when he can't. He's got great first step instinct, and that is something that is prized in linebackers. But if you take him off the ball, that's going to take away what is possibly his greatest asset. Now he's just as fast as any other OLB in the 3-4. Kam Wimbley is actually faster than Peppers is in the open field.
Now we're opening up another can of worms. If the season were to start today, I would assume that Matt Roth would be starting opposite Wimbley in the 3-4. If we throw Peppers at OLB (say opposite Wimbley), we have two 4.6 OLB's, one unproven and one with some stats to his name. In 2009, Matt Roth earned $700,000 for the year, with a $1 million dollar cap hit. Julius Peppers, on the other hand, earned about $16.5 million last season with a cap hit of over $19 million (per sportscity.com). Even if the cap does get abolished for good, that's still a hefty difference in year-to-year salaries. Peppers earns roughly 24 times as much as Roth in a year. To justify bringing in Peppers, then, wouldn't he have to be 24 times as effective as Roth? Through six games last season, Matt Roth nabbed 4 sacks and 28 combined tackles. Assuming that Roth finishes the season with those exact stats (which is highly unlikely), Peppers would, based on the comparison of salaries, have to finish the season with 96 sacks and 672 combined tackles. That is a far cry from his 10.5 sacks and 42 combined tackles in 2009.
Now, I know that is not how it's looked at by any means. I just thought that would be an interesting way of looking at it. If we do end up nabbing Peppers, that's fine. There's plenty of worse moves we could make. I'm just not advocating us dropping top dollar on him today.
Sorry, I warned you it was long.
Prepare yourself, this is a doozy.
It's not beyond the realm of possibility, sure. But I don't think theres a high statistical chance in its favor. Sure, I guess one could argue that each team has the exact same chances in the offseason at winning the upcoming Super Bowl, but we all know that's not how it works. The odds are stacked in our favor, we're a young team with young talent, a quarterback "controversy", a new front office, and a coaching staff in it's second year. We'd have to overcome a lot to make it into the postseason.
The Saints were a different story. They were a team right on the cusp of being good, but had experienced some bad breaks. Their offense and defense was pretty solid last season, they didn't have to make too many offseason moves (especially at the skill positions). Their coaching staff remained virtually unchanged, and they had a strong front office already in place. It's a tale of two cities, really. Not saying it can't happen with us, because it can. But you have to admit, it is highly unlikely.
As for the addition of Peppers- generally, I'm against it. I live in South Carolina, and have attened many a Panthers game. My close friend is a gigantic Panthers fan, and Julius Peppers is his number two all-time favorite Panther, behind Chris Weinke. I think Ricky Proehl is also included somewhere in there, actually. That isn't important. What is important, however, is the fact that I have seen Julius Peppers in person at least once a year for his entire career. The guy is a beast, I would have loved to have gotten him....a couple of years ago. He's a freak of nature, and he's easily the best 4-3 defensive end in the league.
But, as people have mentioned countless times, he's getting old. I still think he would have a couple solid years of performance in him if he were to stay in the 4-3. Sadly, he wants to transition to OLB in the 3-4. That, I believe, will severly limit his production. I'm not saying he won't catch on, but I don't believe he'll be getting 10-12 sacks a season, either. To me, if we're going to pay top dollar for a player (especially at his age), I would like his production value to either increase or, at the very least, stay consistent.
Looking at it rationally, it will take him probably a full season to transition fully into the OLB position. Maybe 8 games if we're lucky. His sack numbers will surely have taken a hit during the transitional phase. Then, to add to that, he will playing a position that is put into coverage slightly more than what he has currently been playing at. Peppers is put into coverage more than any defensive end in the NFL, I understand that. But I still believe that the coverage/blitz ratio will be slightly higher than what he's currently sitting at.
For the sake of argument, let's say that the ratio stays the same, and he rushes the QB just as often as he had in Carolina. Peppers' biggest talent is his quickness. He's flat out fast, definitely. But the thing that has given him the most success is his quickness off the ball. Peppers isn't one to work off a block, if he gets a hat on him right away he's normally blocked for the duration of that play. There's occasions he throws a power move in there, but that's the exception, not the rule. He excels at that first step off the ball, either beating a tackle around the edge or spinning back inside when he can't. He's got great first step instinct, and that is something that is prized in linebackers. But if you take him off the ball, that's going to take away what is possibly his greatest asset. Now he's just as fast as any other OLB in the 3-4. Kam Wimbley is actually faster than Peppers is in the open field.
Now we're opening up another can of worms. If the season were to start today, I would assume that Matt Roth would be starting opposite Wimbley in the 3-4. If we throw Peppers at OLB (say opposite Wimbley), we have two 4.6 OLB's, one unproven and one with some stats to his name. In 2009, Matt Roth earned $700,000 for the year, with a $1 million dollar cap hit. Julius Peppers, on the other hand, earned about $16.5 million last season with a cap hit of over $19 million (per sportscity.com). Even if the cap does get abolished for good, that's still a hefty difference in year-to-year salaries. Peppers earns roughly 24 times as much as Roth in a year. To justify bringing in Peppers, then, wouldn't he have to be 24 times as effective as Roth? Through six games last season, Matt Roth nabbed 4 sacks and 28 combined tackles. Assuming that Roth finishes the season with those exact stats (which is highly unlikely), Peppers would, based on the comparison of salaries, have to finish the season with 96 sacks and 672 combined tackles. That is a far cry from his 10.5 sacks and 42 combined tackles in 2009.
Now, I know that is not how it's looked at by any means. I just thought that would be an interesting way of looking at it. If we do end up nabbing Peppers, that's fine. There's plenty of worse moves we could make. I'm just not advocating us dropping top dollar on him today.
Sorry, I warned you it was long.
'sokay, I needed to catch a few ZZZs.
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Zombo said:
Those are my standard lines.Zombo
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Prepare yourself, this is a doozy.
It's not beyond the realm of possibility, sure. But I don't think theres a high statistical chance in its favor. Sure, I guess one could argue that each team has the exact same chances in the offseason at winning the upcoming Super Bowl, but we all know that's not how it works. The odds are stacked in our favor, we're a young team with young talent, a quarterback "controversy", a new front office, and a coaching staff in it's second year. We'd have to overcome a lot to make it into the postseason.
The Saints were a different story. They were a team right on the cusp of being good, but had experienced some bad breaks. Their offense and defense was pretty solid last season, they didn't have to make too many offseason moves (especially at the skill positions). Their coaching staff remained virtually unchanged, and they had a strong front office already in place. It's a tale of two cities, really. Not saying it can't happen with us, because it can. But you have to admit, it is highly unlikely.
As for the addition of Peppers- generally, I'm against it. I live in South Carolina, and have attened many a Panthers game. My close friend is a gigantic Panthers fan, and Julius Peppers is his number two all-time favorite Panther, behind Chris Weinke. I think Ricky Proehl is also included somewhere in there, actually. That isn't important. What is important, however, is the fact that I have seen Julius Peppers in person at least once a year for his entire career. The guy is a beast, I would have loved to have gotten him....a couple of years ago. He's a freak of nature, and he's easily the best 4-3 defensive end in the league.
But, as people have mentioned countless times, he's getting old. I still think he would have a couple solid years of performance in him if he were to stay in the 4-3. Sadly, he wants to transition to OLB in the 3-4. That, I believe, will severly limit his production. I'm not saying he won't catch on, but I don't believe he'll be getting 10-12 sacks a season, either. To me, if we're going to pay top dollar for a player (especially at his age), I would like his production value to either increase or, at the very least, stay consistent.
Looking at it rationally, it will take him probably a full season to transition fully into the OLB position. Maybe 8 games if we're lucky. His sack numbers will surely have taken a hit during the transitional phase. Then, to add to that, he will playing a position that is put into coverage slightly more than what he has currently been playing at. Peppers is put into coverage more than any defensive end in the NFL, I understand that. But I still believe that the coverage/blitz ratio will be slightly higher than what he's currently sitting at.
For the sake of argument, let's say that the ratio stays the same, and he rushes the QB just as often as he had in Carolina. Peppers' biggest talent is his quickness. He's flat out fast, definitely. But the thing that has given him the most success is his quickness off the ball. Peppers isn't one to work off a block, if he gets a hat on him right away he's normally blocked for the duration of that play. There's occasions he throws a power move in there, but that's the exception, not the rule. He excels at that first step off the ball, either beating a tackle around the edge or spinning back inside when he can't. He's got great first step instinct, and that is something that is prized in linebackers. But if you take him off the ball, that's going to take away what is possibly his greatest asset. Now he's just as fast as any other OLB in the 3-4. Kam Wimbley is actually faster than Peppers is in the open field.
Now we're opening up another can of worms. If the season were to start today, I would assume that Matt Roth would be starting opposite Wimbley in the 3-4. If we throw Peppers at OLB (say opposite Wimbley), we have two 4.6 OLB's, one unproven and one with some stats to his name. In 2009, Matt Roth earned $700,000 for the year, with a $1 million dollar cap hit. Julius Peppers, on the other hand, earned about $16.5 million last season with a cap hit of over $19 million (per sportscity.com). Even if the cap does get abolished for good, that's still a hefty difference in year-to-year salaries. Peppers earns roughly 24 times as much as Roth in a year. To justify bringing in Peppers, then, wouldn't he have to be 24 times as effective as Roth? Through six games last season, Matt Roth nabbed 4 sacks and 28 combined tackles. Assuming that Roth finishes the season with those exact stats (which is highly unlikely), Peppers would, based on the comparison of salaries, have to finish the season with 96 sacks and 672 combined tackles. That is a far cry from his 10.5 sacks and 42 combined tackles in 2009.
Now, I know that is not how it's looked at by any means. I just thought that would be an interesting way of looking at it. If we do end up nabbing Peppers, that's fine. There's plenty of worse moves we could make. I'm just not advocating us dropping top dollar on him today.
Sorry, I warned you it was long.
'sokay, I needed to catch a few ZZZs.
'sokay, I needed to catch a few ZZZs.
Should have just put on a clip of the Cleveland Browns 2008 offense. Early 2009 would have sufficed, as well.
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The good news is that, if Harrison fails, I believe James Davis is more than capable of handling the load. So much so that I dropped $150 on a J.D. Authentic Jersey for myself.-Tim
aha! low and behold the real reason you aren't being as optimistic about Harrison as others. You just want your jersey to not be a bust. and to think we thought you were presenting a valid counter argument
hahah
seriously though, if peppers does ever come here i'm buying a jersey just to spite all the panthers fans here in Charlotte. I'd say it's about 50/50 between him and smith at the football games. It'd be hilarious to root for him in the bars.
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The good news is that, if Harrison fails, I believe James Davis is more than capable of handling the load. So much so that I dropped $150 on a J.D. Authentic Jersey for myself.-Tim
aha! low and behold the real reason you aren't being as optimistic about Harrison as others. You just want your jersey to not be a bust. and to think we thought you were presenting a valid counter argument
hahah
seriously though, if peppers does ever come here i'm buying a jersey just to spite all the panthers fans here in Charlotte. I'd say it's about 50/50 between him and smith at the football games. It'd be hilarious to root for him in the bars.
The good news is that, if Harrison fails, I believe James Davis is more than capable of handling the load. So much so that I dropped $150 on a J.D. Authentic Jersey for myself.-Tim
aha! low and behold the real reason you aren't being as optimistic about Harrison as others. You just want your jersey to not be a bust. and to think we thought you were presenting a valid counter argument
hahah
seriously though, if peppers does ever come here i'm buying a jersey just to spite all the panthers fans here in Charlotte. I'd say it's about 50/50 between him and smith at the football games. It'd be hilarious to root for him in the bars.
Haha. It would just add to the already hefty list of busted players jerseys so far. I'll put it right next to my Quinn, Couch, Edwards, Wimbley, and Sean Jones jerseys.
It doesn't matter to me if the players are busts, though. As long as I have a brown jersey to put on on Sundays (or Mondays), I'm content.
And you're right, Charlotte goes crazy for both J. Pep and Steve Smith. But you want to strike up some awesome conversation at a game or bar in downtown Charlotte? Wear a Tshimanga Biakabutuka jersey. Everytime I've been with someone who was wearing one, they couldn't make it 5 feet without some crazy drunk fan stopping them and talking our ear off about how Touchdown Tim would have been the greatest runningback in the NFL if it weren't for injuries.
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