Interesting/Surprsing PFF Dive into Each Position's Probablity of Success by Round

The Gipper

@tour2ma said:

There is no player analysis per se... the objective of the PFF effort was to develop an objective measure of players' value.

As such it starts with the valuation of Offensive and Defensive units and then divvies up the points each earns thru an semi-arbitrary weighting of the positions followed by individual values augmented by individual achievements such as All-Pro and/or Pro Bowl selections. Obviously QB gets the lions share of the points here. So it wasn't a matter of Winston's or Mariota's production so much as it was the production of the Offenses they led.

As for stacking up all teams' drafts by summing their players' CAVs? Well... CAV rewards longevity and while longevity is capped at 5 years for the 2015 draft not all players drafted in 2015 are still playing. So a team's sum is set not only by the quality of the players it drafted, but the quantity of "man-years" its raft racked up.

Last.... since man-years is a key, then so is the number of men picked, i.e., how many picks did a team have in a given year.

When I first saw Gip's attempt at "somewhat grading" a draft, I knew it was flawed, but couldn't see how to simply fix it, so I made no comment... until now. It's not as simple as CAV per player taken as not all missing and/or added picks are equal. And I couldn't figure a simple way to weight picks by round.

I think there's a way to use the Meers, trade-value table in the weighting, but that's immediately getting well beyond "simple"... so I'd have to care a helluva lot more than I do to go there.

Well, I knew that it was somewhat flawed as well......but I was not aware of any other method or service that attempts to do that sort of thing relatively simplistically. Admittedly, just adding up the raw CAVs of a draft class means, generally, that a larger draft class could come up with a larger accumulated CAV total. I also note elsewhere, parenthetically, that having the top CAV producers in a class is not the end all be all of things, as that 2015 class had at the top, both in terms of draft selection position, and in terms of CAV production, the likes of Winston and Mariota, one a backup now, the other looking for a job.

I guess one thing to ask is the non-scientific question: Is a draft that produces one Hall of Fame talent, and a bunch of nobodies thereafter, better than a draft that produces a few mediocre players.