The Downstream Effects of Sanctioning Russia into the Stone Age
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Greetings, everyone. Let's have a chat on Russian and Ukrainian economic production.
Shortly after the dissolution of the USSR, the Russians were welcomed back into the global economy, and they've been integrated in said economy for 3 decades. The abrupt removal of them has caused some obvious shocks, such as gas prices, but will more importantly have some bigger shocks that haven't been felt yet.
Part I:
Let's start with the elephant in the room, gas prices. I've seen a bunch of talking heads describe the Russian economy as a gas station, and there is some truth to that. They are the world's leading exporter of natural gas. Some nations in the EU get half of their oil from Russia. This is going to be a fun development to watch as they try to balance moral outrage with the practical survival of their economies. Glad I don't live there.Here in the US, gas prices have reached a 20 year high. You've certainly seen the Biden stickers at the gas station and also people saying that Biden doesn't control the global market. There is some truth to both. Biden's position is not an enviable one. In hindsight, the decision to EO the Keystone pipeline out of existence is looking pretty bad. He has gone, hat in hand, to the leaders of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Venezuela, and Iran to try and get them to produce more. SA and UAE didn't even bother talking to him. Venezuela and Iran told him no. So much for Biden bringing respect back to the US on the world stage. The petrodollar appears to be on its last legs.
Biden does have more control over domestic prices than people are letting on. Only 10% of our oil imports come from Russia. Right now, the US is a huge exporter of oil. The oil majors sell American product abroad for profit, and then sell the leftovers on our domestic market. With an EO, Biden can force them to sell here first to meet our demand and lower gas prices for the Average Joe. The oil majors would not at all be thrilled by this because of the profits they would miss out on, but they would comply. If Biden were to do this, the biggest losers would be China and Africa. There will be oil conflicts sprouting up all over the world.
I suspect that Biden temporizes and maintains the status quo. He risks losing the eco-voters if he increases fracking and pipelines at home. If the Democrats can somehow hold Congress for midterms, then maybe he plays this hand out til the end. That outcome seems unlikely, to say the least, and I could see Biden pulling the trigger on the above if the average for gas becomes $6 or higher. As I said, not an enviable position.
tl;dr - I think the short-sighted decision to economically cripple the Russians will force Biden to choose between maintaining the global order versus cutting the rest of the world loose and preventing a domestic crisis via his decisions on domestic oil production.
To be continued in Part II: The rest of the Russian economy
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@vaportrail what are your thoughts on the thousands of previously approved drilling permits that the oil companies aren't using?
Not to get all socialist here, but maybe something as critical to our economy, and the world's, should be entirely left up to CEOs looking to get the most benefit for their shareholders.
Ja.brill Peppers - Cleveland Brown OldBrownsFan, on 02 Jun 2017 - 5:09PM said: "No you are not the work of the devil but you are deceived by the devil." Who's got it better than us? Nooooobody! -
@vaportrail what are your thoughts on the thousands of previously approved drilling permits that the oil companies aren't using?
Not to get all socialist here, but maybe something as critical to our economy, and the world's, should be entirely left up to CEOs looking to get the most benefit for their shareholders.
@vaportrail what are your thoughts on the thousands of previously approved drilling permits that the oil companies aren't using?
Not to get all socialist here, but maybe something as critical to our economy, and the world's, should be entirely left up to CEOs looking to get the most benefit for their shareholders.
To quote an oil executive I saw on TV last week, “If you think there’s oil underground for every lease, you don’t know what you’re talking about”.
Two things that will define you: Your determination when you have nothing. Your attitude when you have everything. - Mike McCartney -
@vaportrail what are your thoughts on the thousands of previously approved drilling permits that the oil companies aren't using?
Not to get all socialist here, but maybe something as critical to our economy, and the world's, should be entirely left up to CEOs looking to get the most benefit for their shareholders.
@vaportrail what are your thoughts on the thousands of previously approved drilling permits that the oil companies aren't using?
Not to get all socialist here, but maybe something as critical to our economy, and the world's, should be entirely left up to CEOs looking to get the most benefit for their shareholders.
this took about 4 seconds. You are a moron.
Biden Administration Is ‘Misusing Facts’ on Oil Permits, API Says
The Biden administration has repeatedly pointed to the number of approved but untapped drilling permits on federal land when questioned about how U.S. production can rise, and what the federal government can do to help.
“There’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the administration as to how the process actually works,” Sommers said in an interview on the sidelines of the conference.
“Just because you have a lease doesn’t mean there’s actually oil and gas in that lease, and there has to be a lot of development that occurs between the leasing and then ultimately permitting for that acreage to be productive,” he said. “I think that they’re purposefully misusing the facts here to advantage their position.”
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@vaportrail what are your thoughts on the thousands of previously approved drilling permits that the oil companies aren't using?
Not to get all socialist here, but maybe something as critical to our economy, and the world's, should be entirely left up to CEOs looking to get the most benefit for their shareholders.
To quote an oil executive I saw on TV last week, “If you think there’s oil underground for every lease, you don’t know what you’re talking about”.
To quote an oil executive I saw on TV last week, “If you think there’s oil underground for every lease, you don’t know what you’re talking about”.
Of course an oil executive would say that...
... Let me know what he thinks about climate change
Ja.brill Peppers - Cleveland Brown OldBrownsFan, on 02 Jun 2017 - 5:09PM said: "No you are not the work of the devil but you are deceived by the devil." Who's got it better than us? Nooooobody! -
@vaportrail what are your thoughts on the thousands of previously approved drilling permits that the oil companies aren't using?
Not to get all socialist here, but maybe something as critical to our economy, and the world's, should be entirely left up to CEOs looking to get the most benefit for their shareholders.
this took about 4 seconds. You are a moron.
Biden Administration Is ‘Misusing Facts’ on Oil Permits, API Says
The Biden administration has repeatedly pointed to the number of approved but untapped drilling permits on federal land when questioned about how U.S. production can rise, and what the federal government can do to help.
“There’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the administration as to how the process actually works,” Sommers said in an interview on the sidelines of the conference.
“Just because you have a lease doesn’t mean there’s actually oil and gas in that lease, and there has to be a lot of development that occurs between the leasing and then ultimately permitting for that acreage to be productive,” he said. “I think that they’re purposefully misusing the facts here to advantage their position.”
this took about 4 seconds. You are a moron.
Biden Administration Is ‘Misusing Facts’ on Oil Permits, API Says
The Biden administration has repeatedly pointed to the number of approved but untapped drilling permits on federal land when questioned about how U.S. production can rise, and what the federal government can do to help.
“There’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the administration as to how the process actually works,” Sommers said in an interview on the sidelines of the conference.
“Just because you have a lease doesn’t mean there’s actually oil and gas in that lease, and there has to be a lot of development that occurs between the leasing and then ultimately permitting for that acreage to be productive,” he said. “I think that they’re purposefully misusing the facts here to advantage their position.”
So all 9000+ don't have oil? How many have been surveyed?
Conservatives want people to believe there's no possible way any of these approved drilling sites could possibly help in time and then in the same breath act like the keystone pipeline extension could be ready tomorrow and would solve all of our issues ...
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To quote an oil executive I saw on TV last week, “If you think there’s oil underground for every lease, you don’t know what you’re talking about”.
Of course an oil executive would say that...
... Let me know what he thinks about climate change
Of course an oil executive would say that...
... Let me know what he thinks about climate change
The same thing applies to gold, silver, diamond, and platinum mines.
Its really not that hard to figure out.
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To quote an oil executive I saw on TV last week, “If you think there’s oil underground for every lease, you don’t know what you’re talking about”.
Of course an oil executive would say that...
... Let me know what he thinks about climate change
Of course an oil executive would say that...
... Let me know what he thinks about climate change
God, your professors really fucked you up.
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@vaportrail what are your thoughts on the thousands of previously approved drilling permits that the oil companies aren't using?
Not to get all socialist here, but maybe something as critical to our economy, and the world's, should be entirely left up to CEOs looking to get the most benefit for their shareholders.
@vaportrail what are your thoughts on the thousands of previously approved drilling permits that the oil companies aren't using?
Not to get all socialist here, but maybe something as critical to our economy, and the world's, should be entirely left up to CEOs looking to get the most benefit for their shareholders.
It's probably a combination of controlling the supply for maximizing profits, as you say, as well as not all sites being equal, like Canton Dawg pointed out. And there's one more thing.
Want to see something wild? Below is a satellite picture of the US at night.
Take a look at western North Dakota. That's pretty lit up. But then when we compare it to the map below, there are no major cities there.
So, what are those lights? They're fires from Bakken shale fields. Why are there fires at the shale fields? Because they produce more natural gas than we know how to capture. Instead of letting it into the atmosphere, we burn it off. And we burn off so much that the light it creates is comparable to the light created from Chicago to Milwaukee. More fracking permits doesn't necessarily have a linear correlation to more profits. In many cases, they'd be better off financially by increasing the efficiency of what's already there. The pressure from this conflict is going to result in some technological leaps in fracking technology - which is really fascinating to think about when you look at all the innovation that's happened in this field between 2005 and today.
As for your suggestion of keeping these decisions out of corporate hands - I'd ask what you think the alternative should be. I've worked for the Air Force and the VA. I would warn against nationalization of this industry. I'm no fan of global corporatism, but at least seeking profits will promote efficiency. You put the federal government in charge, you're just swapping out the existing corporate infrastructure for another corporate infrastructure with exponentially more bureaucratic bloat.
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Part II: The Rest of the Russian Economy
There are three major types of fertilizer, derived from nitrogen, phosphate, or potash. Ammonia (NH3) is a byproduct of the refinement of LNG. Russia, with all their natural gas and ammonia, also happens to be the world's #1 exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizers. They are the #1 exporter of potash-based fertilizers too. Hey Cal, if you're still farming, could you give me a quick rundown of how much fertilizer cost in 2021 compared to 2020? Then could you take a wild guess at how much you think it will cost for this year's growing season?
Metals and ores... Iron and low-quality steel. Russia is the #1 exporter. Nickel ore, #1 exporter. Finished nickel, #1 exporter. You can't make stainless steel without nickel, which has anti-corrosive properties. Most surgical plates and screws are alloys with nickel in them for their anti-corrosive and hardness properties. Some lasers utilize crystals that are doped with nickel. Geniuses like the press secretary and Pete Buttigieg have suggested that we need to transition to electric cars so that states like Russia can't hold us hostage with the oil. Well, that'd be fine, except for the fact that Tesla's car batteries require almost 50kg of nickel.
Wheat. Russia is a top 5 grain producer. Most of their export goes to the Middle East. The last time there were disruptions to this trade, it happened to correlate to the Arab Spring. Ukraine is a top 10 grain exporter. Now we're going to strain their ability to move that? Expect food conflicts to pop up abroad and/or much of the Middle East to change alignment from US to Russian/Chinese influence (as we are already starting to see). Now is a good time to grow some wheat, I think.
Platinum. Catalytic converters. Any piece of modern electronics. Hope you got your graphics cards and latest iphone. Russia is a top 3 producer of platinum.
This is the course we are now committed to by enacting these sanctions. Again, really glad I live in the US and not anywhere else with all of this looming.
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Part II: The Rest of the Russian Economy
There are three major types of fertilizer, derived from nitrogen, phosphate, or potash. Ammonia (NH3) is a byproduct of the refinement of LNG. Russia, with all their natural gas and ammonia, also happens to be the world's #1 exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizers. They are the #1 exporter of potash-based fertilizers too. Hey Cal, if you're still farming, could you give me a quick rundown of how much fertilizer cost in 2021 compared to 2020? Then could you take a wild guess at how much you think it will cost for this year's growing season?
Metals and ores... Iron and low-quality steel. Russia is the #1 exporter. Nickel ore, #1 exporter. Finished nickel, #1 exporter. You can't make stainless steel without nickel, which has anti-corrosive properties. Most surgical plates and screws are alloys with nickel in them for their anti-corrosive and hardness properties. Some lasers utilize crystals that are doped with nickel. Geniuses like the press secretary and Pete Buttigieg have suggested that we need to transition to electric cars so that states like Russia can't hold us hostage with the oil. Well, that'd be fine, except for the fact that Tesla's car batteries require almost 50kg of nickel.
Wheat. Russia is a top 5 grain producer. Most of their export goes to the Middle East. The last time there were disruptions to this trade, it happened to correlate to the Arab Spring. Ukraine is a top 10 grain exporter. Now we're going to strain their ability to move that? Expect food conflicts to pop up abroad and/or much of the Middle East to change alignment from US to Russian/Chinese influence (as we are already starting to see). Now is a good time to grow some wheat, I think.
Platinum. Catalytic converters. Any piece of modern electronics. Hope you got your graphics cards and latest iphone. Russia is a top 3 producer of platinum.
This is the course we are now committed to by enacting these sanctions. Again, really glad I live in the US and not anywhere else with all of this looming.
Part II: The Rest of the Russian Economy
There are three major types of fertilizer, derived from nitrogen, phosphate, or potash. Ammonia (NH3) is a byproduct of the refinement of LNG. Russia, with all their natural gas and ammonia, also happens to be the world's #1 exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizers. They are the #1 exporter of potash-based fertilizers too. Hey Cal, if you're still farming, could you give me a quick rundown of how much fertilizer cost in 2021 compared to 2020? Then could you take a wild guess at how much you think it will cost for this year's growing season?
Metals and ores... Iron and low-quality steel. Russia is the #1 exporter. Nickel ore, #1 exporter. Finished nickel, #1 exporter. You can't make stainless steel without nickel, which has anti-corrosive properties. Most surgical plates and screws are alloys with nickel in them for their anti-corrosive and hardness properties. Some lasers utilize crystals that are doped with nickel. Geniuses like the press secretary and Pete Buttigieg have suggested that we need to transition to electric cars so that states like Russia can't hold us hostage with the oil. Well, that'd be fine, except for the fact that Tesla's car batteries require almost 50kg of nickel.
Wheat. Russia is a top 5 grain producer. Most of their export goes to the Middle East. The last time there were disruptions to this trade, it happened to correlate to the Arab Spring. Ukraine is a top 10 grain exporter. Now we're going to strain their ability to move that? Expect food conflicts to pop up abroad and/or much of the Middle East to change alignment from US to Russian/Chinese influence (as we are already starting to see). Now is a good time to grow some wheat, I think.
Platinum. Catalytic converters. Any piece of modern electronics. Hope you got your graphics cards and latest iphone. Russia is a top 3 producer of platinum.
This is the course we are now committed to by enacting these sanctions. Again, really glad I live in the US and not anywhere else with all of this looming.
Excellent stuff, Vapor ! Thanks !
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this took about 4 seconds. You are a moron.
Biden Administration Is ‘Misusing Facts’ on Oil Permits, API Says
The Biden administration has repeatedly pointed to the number of approved but untapped drilling permits on federal land when questioned about how U.S. production can rise, and what the federal government can do to help.
“There’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the administration as to how the process actually works,” Sommers said in an interview on the sidelines of the conference.
“Just because you have a lease doesn’t mean there’s actually oil and gas in that lease, and there has to be a lot of development that occurs between the leasing and then ultimately permitting for that acreage to be productive,” he said. “I think that they’re purposefully misusing the facts here to advantage their position.”
So all 9000+ don't have oil? How many have been surveyed?
Conservatives want people to believe there's no possible way any of these approved drilling sites could possibly help in time and then in the same breath act like the keystone pipeline extension could be ready tomorrow and would solve all of our issues ...
So all 9000+ don't have oil? How many have been surveyed?
Conservatives want people to believe there's no possible way any of these approved drilling sites could possibly help in time and then in the same breath act like the keystone pipeline extension could be ready tomorrow and would solve all of our issues ...
Come on woody. You're supposedly an engineer. Say there is a few million barrels below some federal reserve in Butte Montana or something. Do you suspect they can just set up a drill and start producing tomorrow? That proceee takes a long time. Especially with your peeps, the climate change fanatics, getting in the way at every step.
Early man walked away as modern man took control. Their minds weren't all the same and to conquer was their goal. So He built his great empires and he slaughtered his own kind, and he died a confused man and killed himself in his own mind... -
So all 9000+ don't have oil? How many have been surveyed?
Conservatives want people to believe there's no possible way any of these approved drilling sites could possibly help in time and then in the same breath act like the keystone pipeline extension could be ready tomorrow and would solve all of our issues ...
Come on woody. You're supposedly an engineer. Say there is a few million barrels below some federal reserve in Butte Montana or something. Do you suspect they can just set up a drill and start producing tomorrow? That proceee takes a long time. Especially with your peeps, the climate change fanatics, getting in the way at every step.
Come on woody. You're supposedly an engineer. Say there is a few million barrels below some federal reserve in Butte Montana or something. Do you suspect they can just set up a drill and start producing tomorrow? That proceee takes a long time. Especially with your peeps, the climate change fanatics, getting in the way at every step.
Nothing else matters anymore to the liberals. Only orange man bad… If you could have felt the stinging of their tears when 45 won you would know their anguish.
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The other problem is "bait and switch".
The hostility of obaMao/biden/left is obvious.
Sure, there are that many? 9,000?
They just had the EPA establish rules that make it too expensive and hard
to use them.
https://lidblog.com/obamas-war-against-oil-drilling-epa/
Obama Continues War Against Oil. EPA Rules Force Shell to Abandon Drilling Plans in Alaska
"The appeals board which ruled against Shell has been loaded by President Obama to get these kind of results. The board has four members all are Democrats and one Kathie Stein was an activist attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund. "
" The EPA’s appeals board ruled that Shell had not taken into consideration emissions from an ice-breaking vessel when calculating overall greenhouse gas emissions from the project. Environmental groups were thrilled by the ruling. "
" The appeals board which ruled against Shell has been loaded by President Obama to get these kind of results. The board has four members all are Democrats and one Kathie Stein was an activist attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund. "
but going with 9,000 leases is ignorant unless you are biden and pissaki - it's a half-truth designed to make
gullible leftwing democrat groupies to go with it.
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The answer to this is sitting right in front of us with technology that already exists today. It's called air to fuel or A2F. It pulls the carbon dioxide out of the air and mixes it with hydrogen from water to create synthetic fuel that current gasoline engines can use. Again, this is not science fiction, it exists right now. Yeah it's expensive to produce but it's carbon neutral this satisfying everyone. With a real cash injection for development we could easily break the dependence on fossil fuels.
Early man walked away as modern man took control. Their minds weren't all the same and to conquer was their goal. So He built his great empires and he slaughtered his own kind, and he died a confused man and killed himself in his own mind... -
The answer to this is sitting right in front of us with technology that already exists today. It's called air to fuel or A2F. It pulls the carbon dioxide out of the air and mixes it with hydrogen from water to create synthetic fuel that current gasoline engines can use. Again, this is not science fiction, it exists right now. Yeah it's expensive to produce but it's carbon neutral this satisfying everyone. With a real cash injection for development we could easily break the dependence on fossil fuels.
The answer to this is sitting right in front of us with technology that already exists today. It's called air to fuel or A2F. It pulls the carbon dioxide out of the air and mixes it with hydrogen from water to create synthetic fuel that current gasoline engines can use. Again, this is not science fiction, it exists right now. Yeah it's expensive to produce but it's carbon neutral this satisfying everyone. With a real cash injection for development we could easily break the dependence on fossil fuels.
wow. I didn't know that !
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As a member of a VC group (venture capitalists) I was intrigued by the air to fuel process.
Its some exciting stuff!
https://carbonengineering.com/news-updates/ce-demonstrates-air-fuels/
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As a member of a VC group (venture capitalists) I was intrigued by the air to fuel process.
Its some exciting stuff!
https://carbonengineering.com/news-updates/ce-demonstrates-air-fuels/
As a member of a VC group (venture capitalists) I was intrigued by the air to fuel process.
Its some exciting stuff!
https://carbonengineering.com/news-updates/ce-demonstrates-air-fuels/
Oh you had Woody excited for a minute he thought VC stood for Viet Cong.
WSS
www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons -
The answer to this is sitting right in front of us with technology that already exists today. It's called air to fuel or A2F. It pulls the carbon dioxide out of the air and mixes it with hydrogen from water to create synthetic fuel that current gasoline engines can use. Again, this is not science fiction, it exists right now. Yeah it's expensive to produce but it's carbon neutral this satisfying everyone. With a real cash injection for development we could easily break the dependence on fossil fuels.
The answer to this is sitting right in front of us with technology that already exists today. It's called air to fuel or A2F. It pulls the carbon dioxide out of the air and mixes it with hydrogen from water to create synthetic fuel that current gasoline engines can use. Again, this is not science fiction, it exists right now. Yeah it's expensive to produce but it's carbon neutral this satisfying everyone. With a real cash injection for development we could easily break the dependence on fossil fuels.
How do you propose we start using that technology on a production scale?
You said it is currently expensive. Do you want to wait for the free market to pick it up or do you have another proposal?
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So all 9000+ don't have oil? How many have been surveyed?
Conservatives want people to believe there's no possible way any of these approved drilling sites could possibly help in time and then in the same breath act like the keystone pipeline extension could be ready tomorrow and would solve all of our issues ...
Come on woody. You're supposedly an engineer. Say there is a few million barrels below some federal reserve in Butte Montana or something. Do you suspect they can just set up a drill and start producing tomorrow? That proceee takes a long time. Especially with your peeps, the climate change fanatics, getting in the way at every step.
Come on woody. You're supposedly an engineer. Say there is a few million barrels below some federal reserve in Butte Montana or something. Do you suspect they can just set up a drill and start producing tomorrow? That proceee takes a long time. Especially with your peeps, the climate change fanatics, getting in the way at every step.
"Supposedly". Oh lovely, starting off with an insult. I'll power through....
I never said they could start drilling tomorrow. I pointed out the political charged talking point out there that the KXL pipeline would just solve all of our problems. That's overlooking all of these permits, plus other solutions like the one you mentioned below. My point is not to say those 9000 other permits would solve the crisis tomorrow. It's to say:
- Immediately this issue is becoming political in an attempt to own the other side. In this thread the first response from Cal started. And on this issue, we're seeing the politicization from the right in regards to KXL.
- There are over ways costs could be reduced or production increased, but the oil companies want to protect profits, shareholders and executives. That is their main concern, not the average citizen.
If you or anyone else still feels man made climate change isn't occurring at this point I'm not sure what else can be done. Can them fanatics if it helps you feel better about your stance. I hope we can right the climate ship eventually though.
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