The 2023 season film studies. Thread of questions and answers.
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I'm already charting plays, I'll be back on tomorrow to reply to quotes and notifications.
Wanted to hit you guys with something while I'm working. Just in case you like having conversations and you're willing to opened to changing your minds about things when new information comes to light. First off, Browns punting average is 45.4 yards. Given field position, that means the ball would have been around the SEA 26, instead of their own 43. A net difference of 17 yards. Now, this is where it gets fun. Seattle had 2 time-outs, but had 6 plays, 5 offensively ran, the 6th being an accepted penalty on the Browns, that covered those 57 yards for a touchdown. Took a grand total of 72 seconds, just under 1.3 yards per second. Meaning, had the Browns punted and gave Seattle the additional ground to cover, at that pace, Seattle scores with 25 seconds remaining and still keeps their 2 time outs.
Of the Browns 3 games, where the defense was in a place to prevent a tie or a loss score on given field position, including field goals, they currently sit at 1-2 mark. The defense gave up a game winning drive to the Niners. Where San Fran had an 85.21% chance of hitting a 39 yard field goal. I don't know about you guys, but if I was given an 85% success rate at anything, I'd likely be a multi-millionaire. Mother Nature was on our side that day, and dealing with the elements is something both teams had to do. But point being, the Browns defense surrendered those yards when it mattered most. Obviously today counts, as the Browns gave up 7 points in just over a buck 10 in seconds, plus the penalty. Seattle has zero blocked punts last season and this season (so far) so that's likely not an issue here. I don't like working on hypotheticals to that exact, only stuff that's a bit easier to keep track of with some realistic trends to it. Only against the Colts have they secured a game winning defensive stop when the opportunity presented itself.
Granted, my rant is a vacuum situation and I don't really like giving analysis as such. The defense could have given up a game losing FG to the Colts, but that same defense produced some turnovers and a defensive score that helped to win that game as well. Likewise for the San Fran game, where they got stops and produced negative plays to help our offense put some points on the board. It's an ecosystem and there has to be some give and take. My post here is to highlight the silliness of the absolute which is the "punt and play defense" being the right and definitive call. That "mythical" call which wins the game every time. Right now, under that scenario, the Browns have a losing record of yardage surrendered. Point blank. The defense gave up 3 scores in the 1st quarter today while dropping a sure-fire defensive score. In a game where the offense had to dig deep on the road early to keep us in it, to the point they ended up getting a lead. That same offense sputtered at points in the 2nd half when the Hawks made their adjustments. Are those all presumably the head coaches fault? We've been effusive in our praise of Schwartz, but we've missed out on including some of his good fortune while it's a 'what have you done lately for me?' world. If we punted and gave up said score, would the venom turn to the defense as it has Stef? Again - give with some take.
Put things in proper perspective, Browns fans. This is an injury riddled team that took a chance on the road to ice a game against a defensive look they enjoyed some success against on previous drives.
Apologies to all for not being able to get back to conversation tonight... but I've got grades to do. I'll pay that respect tomorrow with appropriate responses.
I'm already charting plays, I'll be back on tomorrow to reply to quotes and notifications.
Wanted to hit you guys with something while I'm working. Just in case you like having conversations and you're willing to opened to changing your minds about things when new information comes to light. First off, Browns punting average is 45.4 yards. Given field position, that means the ball would have been around the SEA 26, instead of their own 43. A net difference of 17 yards. Now, this is where it gets fun. Seattle had 2 time-outs, but had 6 plays, 5 offensively ran, the 6th being an accepted penalty on the Browns, that covered those 57 yards for a touchdown. Took a grand total of 72 seconds, just under 1.3 yards per second. Meaning, had the Browns punted and gave Seattle the additional ground to cover, at that pace, Seattle scores with 25 seconds remaining and still keeps their 2 time outs.
In addition to what was said, this math ain't mathin.
Cleveland was on their own 41 on the 3rd and 3 play. Assuming they don't gain a yard, a 45 yard punt (Cody was averaging 47 in the game, but I'll give you 45), put the ball on the 14 yard line, not the 26. Even using the very flawed methodology of yards per second (which I can truly say I've never seen in my life), you also didn't consider the 10+ seconds a punt takes off the clock as opposed to the time saved from the turnover.
Lastly, I won't add much to what Korsou said. Football can be a simple game sometimes, and Stefanski despite being a very solid coach has a marked problem of overthinking it. The Browns were moving the ball on the ground well, and the QB was a third string guy who missed two wide open people on previous plays. I can't find the statistic, but I recall watching the game that the Browns held the Seahawks to that point to 44 total yards in the 2nd half. Running the ball was the prudent decision, and not choosing it cost the team dearly.
EDIT: I'm taking an educated guess you're presuming the Seahawks get 12 yards return (their average) but in that situation it's very unlikely.
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Thought you wouldn't see this under-the-radar contract if it was posted any other place
The more labels you have for yourself, the dumber they make you. "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." Paul Brown -
I'm already charting plays, I'll be back on tomorrow to reply to quotes and notifications.
Wanted to hit you guys with something while I'm working. Just in case you like having conversations and you're willing to opened to changing your minds about things when new information comes to light. First off, Browns punting average is 45.4 yards. Given field position, that means the ball would have been around the SEA 26, instead of their own 43. A net difference of 17 yards. Now, this is where it gets fun. Seattle had 2 time-outs, but had 6 plays, 5 offensively ran, the 6th being an accepted penalty on the Browns, that covered those 57 yards for a touchdown. Took a grand total of 72 seconds, just under 1.3 yards per second. Meaning, had the Browns punted and gave Seattle the additional ground to cover, at that pace, Seattle scores with 25 seconds remaining and still keeps their 2 time outs.
In addition to what was said, this math ain't mathin.
Cleveland was on their own 41 on the 3rd and 3 play. Assuming they don't gain a yard, a 45 yard punt (Cody was averaging 47 in the game, but I'll give you 45), put the ball on the 14 yard line, not the 26. Even using the very flawed methodology of yards per second (which I can truly say I've never seen in my life), you also didn't consider the 10+ seconds a punt takes off the clock as opposed to the time saved from the turnover.
Lastly, I won't add much to what Korsou said. Football can be a simple game sometimes, and Stefanski despite being a very solid coach has a marked problem of overthinking it. The Browns were moving the ball on the ground well, and the QB was a third string guy who missed two wide open people on previous plays. I can't find the statistic, but I recall watching the game that the Browns held the Seahawks to that point to 44 total yards in the 2nd half. Running the ball was the prudent decision, and not choosing it cost the team dearly.
EDIT: I'm taking an educated guess you're presuming the Seahawks get 12 yards return (their average) but in that situation it's very unlikely.
EDIT: I'm taking an educated guess you're presuming the Seahawks get 12 yards return (their average) but in that situation it's very unlikely.
First off, I started this post on Monday in another tab. Haven't had even remotely enough time to finish it. I'm on my way to go drop my car off for some work (pre-winter stuff too. Because, as luck would have it, mother nature is cool to be a bitch and snow the other day) I'll be at the gym, sort of writing more down mentally as I go. But first I wanted to apologize specifically to you for Sunday. I didn't mean offense or arrogance, but it came across as both and that wasn't my intent. You're a solid dude and post quality stuff. Again, that's my bad.
This should not be in quotation marks.
I am still fuming about that choice, but happy to agree to disagree.
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Happy to have you as a part of the conversation.
I have a post, like I said I started monday, that goes over some things.
- Defensive tendencies for both teams
- Defensive tendencies for the Browns against San Fran
- Offensive tendencies and playcalls for those last few drives
- Playcalls for that last series.
I'm not arguing against the merits of what the alternative may have been, and just like the Watson trade, it's probably something I would have gone the opposite of. In Sunday's case, if I were calling plays, I would have dialed up that QB wrap... although I know what that could spell, and then punted. Again, NOT questioning the validity of the strategy. With the way this defense is structured and playing, I actually suspect there might be more last drive struggles ahead of them in these sorts of games. I know that isn't a popular or fun opinion, but I have good evidence to highlight it.
I appreciate Stefs balls trying to ice the game. He didn't call it like he was scared. More importantly, I saw the designs he called and they were there against similar coverages from earlier in the game, no less. The throw(s) were there, the execution just wasn't. I'm only saying this - neither play would have been an absolute. Ever see Crimson Tide? Denzel and Gene Hackman? Great movie, check it out if you haven't. That's sort of how I'm viewing these debates.
Ultimately we will (likely) end up on that 'agree to disagree'. And keep in mind, fellas - I'm perfectly fine with that. All I ask is that the reasoning, and the acceptance of counter reasoning, is still maintained.
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Thought you wouldn't see this under-the-radar contract if it was posted any other place
Thought you wouldn't see this under-the-radar contract if it was posted any other place
Yeah, that one still stings.
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EDIT: I'm taking an educated guess you're presuming the Seahawks get 12 yards return (their average) but in that situation it's very unlikely.
First off, I started this post on Monday in another tab. Haven't had even remotely enough time to finish it. I'm on my way to go drop my car off for some work (pre-winter stuff too. Because, as luck would have it, mother nature is cool to be a bitch and snow the other day) I'll be at the gym, sort of writing more down mentally as I go. But first I wanted to apologize specifically to you for Sunday. I didn't mean offense or arrogance, but it came across as both and that wasn't my intent. You're a solid dude and post quality stuff. Again, that's my bad.
This should not be in quotation marks.
I am still fuming about that choice, but happy to agree to disagree.
.
Happy to have you as a part of the conversation.
I have a post, like I said I started monday, that goes over some things.
- Defensive tendencies for both teams
- Defensive tendencies for the Browns against San Fran
- Offensive tendencies and playcalls for those last few drives
- Playcalls for that last series.
I'm not arguing against the merits of what the alternative may have been, and just like the Watson trade, it's probably something I would have gone the opposite of. In Sunday's case, if I were calling plays, I would have dialed up that QB wrap... although I know what that could spell, and then punted. Again, NOT questioning the validity of the strategy. With the way this defense is structured and playing, I actually suspect there might be more last drive struggles ahead of them in these sorts of games. I know that isn't a popular or fun opinion, but I have good evidence to highlight it.
I appreciate Stefs balls trying to ice the game. He didn't call it like he was scared. More importantly, I saw the designs he called and they were there against similar coverages from earlier in the game, no less. The throw(s) were there, the execution just wasn't. I'm only saying this - neither play would have been an absolute. Ever see Crimson Tide? Denzel and Gene Hackman? Great movie, check it out if you haven't. That's sort of how I'm viewing these debates.
Ultimately we will (likely) end up on that 'agree to disagree'. And keep in mind, fellas - I'm perfectly fine with that. All I ask is that the reasoning, and the acceptance of counter reasoning, is still maintained.
First off, I started this post on Monday in another tab. Haven't had even remotely enough time to finish it. I'm on my way to go drop my car off for some work (pre-winter stuff too. Because, as luck would have it, mother nature is cool to be a bitch and snow the other day) I'll be at the gym, sort of writing more down mentally as I go. But first I wanted to apologize specifically to you for Sunday. I didn't mean offense or arrogance, but it came across as both and that wasn't my intent. You're a solid dude and post quality stuff. Again, that's my bad.
Nothing but love big dog - it takes a man to own up to things and I sincerely appreciate it. Can’t say I have that issue here in south Florida- don’t miss the snow one bit.
still shoulda run the damn ball though haha.
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First off, I started this post on Monday in another tab. Haven't had even remotely enough time to finish it. I'm on my way to go drop my car off for some work (pre-winter stuff too. Because, as luck would have it, mother nature is cool to be a bitch and snow the other day) I'll be at the gym, sort of writing more down mentally as I go. But first I wanted to apologize specifically to you for Sunday. I didn't mean offense or arrogance, but it came across as both and that wasn't my intent. You're a solid dude and post quality stuff. Again, that's my bad.
Nothing but love big dog - it takes a man to own up to things and I sincerely appreciate it. Can’t say I have that issue here in south Florida- don’t miss the snow one bit.
still shoulda run the damn ball though haha.
Nothing but love big dog - it takes a man to own up to things and I sincerely appreciate it. Can’t say I have that issue here in south Florida- don’t miss the snow one bit.
still shoulda run the damn ball though haha.
Aaaaand it ended up being 60 today. Only in Ohio can you play 9 holes after work then go to a high school playoff game that's going to be 40-ish degrees within a few hours.
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Nothing but love big dog - it takes a man to own up to things and I sincerely appreciate it. Can’t say I have that issue here in south Florida- don’t miss the snow one bit.
still shoulda run the damn ball though haha.
Aaaaand it ended up being 60 today. Only in Ohio can you play 9 holes after work then go to a high school playoff game that's going to be 40-ish degrees within a few hours.
Aaaaand it ended up being 60 today. Only in Ohio can you play 9 holes after work then go to a high school playoff game that's going to be 40-ish degrees within a few hours.
As much as where I live has waned on me, one thing I love is much more consistent weather. The extreme swings kept me sick from November to the new year living in North Carolina.
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Elliot is now #1 in run-stop% among all NFL DI at 48.8%.. What the?
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Elliot is now #1 in run-stop% among all NFL DI at 48.8%.. What the?
Elliot is now #1 in run-stop% among all NFL DI at 48.8%.. What the?
Slow learner?
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Aaaaand it ended up being 60 today. Only in Ohio can you play 9 holes after work then go to a high school playoff game that's going to be 40-ish degrees within a few hours.
As much as where I live has waned on me, one thing I love is much more consistent weather. The extreme swings kept me sick from November to the new year living in North Carolina.
As much as where I live has waned on me, one thing I love is much more consistent weather. The extreme swings kept me sick from November to the new year living in North Carolina.
Every season change, for about a week, I get what amounts to seasonal allergies. Likely will only get worse as I get older. And in NEO, where I can experience summer and winter in the same damn day, I do what I can to stay healthy.
Elliot is now #1 in run-stop% among all NFL DI at 48.8%.. What the?
I'd be curious how his, I believe 2? TFL's against the Colts really add into that. I know, out of all the top DT's, he likely has one of, if not the lowest snap count as a backup. He backdoored the colts IOL twice that game and got lucky blowing things up. I haven't checked what PFF's grade has been for him, but he was still getting pretty negative marks from me when I went to assign them. Wouldn't be surprised to see theirs stack up and right along with mine.
So he can win in run stop percentage as a 2nd, borderline 3rd string player, and keeping his snap count down. But his grades over the course of a season tend to be what they are.
Which reminds me, I'm hoping Ika gets his nod to be active this week. One of the adjustments the Ravens and Titans made was to run weak when we would call over to strength. Mo and Shelby were blown up quite a few times. It would go a long way having the bigger body in there just to sit his ass on that gap and not let the center fold him.
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Elliot is now #1 in run-stop% among all NFL DI at 48.8%.. What the?
Slow learner?
Slow learner?
That or he was just pacing himself...
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Slow learner?
That or he was just pacing himself...
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Maybe it's called "System" conducive to a players strengths... It sure as hell wasn't Joe Woods'
That reminds me, the Saints under Joe Woods are leading the NFC South and ...
- tied with CLE for TDs surrendered
-7th in total defense, up almost double from last year. 7th in scoring.
- 13th in total points allowed
- 4th in 3rd down defense
- leading the NFL in Ints
Again, cool with you being in this thread. But if you're going to keep using the word "system" like you know and have been doing, then I'm going to ask you to take the time to detail the differences. I'm also going to need you to explain why the Saints defense isn't awful as well then this year, since it's the same guy.
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@nickers said:
Fuck you , Take your holier than thou act elsewhere... You don't own this goddamn site!
That is true, tia does not in fact own this site.
But he sure owns you.
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@nickers said:
Fuck you , Take your holier than thou act elsewhere... You don't own this goddamn site!
I apologized to JRB previously in this thread for a comment I made, not so much at him, but in general that was a response to him. Apologizing to him was the right thing to do, he knows ball, talks it well, and I enjoy what he has to say. And I will make sure I check my attitude at the door for anyone who brings quality discussion where mutual knowledge is shared. But that isn't you.
For every slightly sensible thing you say, there are another dozen inaccurate, unoriginal and immature takes. Didn't you say Jacoby Brissett was trash? Even more funny, all you did was insult my work when I broke down his time in Miami. Here we are a year later, and you're in the crowd hoping the Browns traded back for him. "Shitpantski", really? I bet you think calling television "smellavision" is top fucking tier. The site is not mine, it's owned by Steve but, in a sense conveyed by him, belongs to all. Because he's someone who wants to drive this project as a community. Which is exactly what this is. I deal with enough effeminate males in my personal and professional life to have to read whining in my own thread. And THAT, is exactly what this is. The one I start every year that rolls through until the season is over, is mine and allowed as my own sort of 'platform', if you will. While I take ownership of this thread (in a sense) I want community involvement absolutely, because this game has been my passion since I was 13 and I love few things more than talking to those as passionate, dedicated and intelligent.
I moderate this thread and this thread only. All that I ask is people bring their A+ game. I know others might have noticed I haven't been very diligent posting my breakdowns here as I was. Time is a currency I have less of these days, and I'm not about to burn mine scrolling through or past people who don't have something to say worth the time reading.
Come in, share information, drop something funny, enlightening, worth reading, betting advice, or digest the football knowledge and assessments given and let them marinate. I've handed this board hundreds of dollars worth of gambling info in the last 2 years alone - use it to your advantage.
Anything less from you, or anyone else, can piss off and keep on moving.
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As often as nickers brings me up, I almost get the impression that he has a crush on me.
I'm flattered.
And that's a hilarious take on your thoughts of Brissett when he signed with the Browns. You praised him? ?
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@nickers said:
I said nothing of the kind about Jacoby.. I praised him..
You ....07/24/2022 - "Briskett is Trash". "Spare us the bullshit"
It's right there in the link and your post I had quoted over a year ago. Along with me still asking you 'what' about Joe Woods scheme is the issue?
PM me if you want to come back to the adults table at any point. We welcome anyone who behaves as such. Until then, your act is removed from this thread.
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I'd love to see these sorts of gap exchanges by the Browns defense, but they really aren't built like that. The biggest difference being that we don't have a Bobby Wagner. Although I'd been effusive in calling Delpit 'Jamal Adams lite'.
Its been quite a while since I've seen, what I was coached, as a "true" double eagle. For Buckeye fans, you'll remember this one vividly. This is the defensive front Va Tech used widely to beat Urban Meyers option attack when they visited The Shoe in 2014.
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This is a gap exchange from Bobby and Jamal vs the Ravens double backside power read.
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The Brownies have used quite a bit more Over fronts (3 tech to strength) lately. Where we opened up the season playing more Under. I'd like to see us go back to more Under and Odd looks, but this is why I mentioned Siaki Ika in the other thread. We don't have those big body LB's like Bobby Wagner. If they want (be nice) to go back to some Under and disrupt these looks with our bigger bodies up front, then I need that space eater who can hold that front side shade down, disrupt the pulls by taking the center vertically upfield and let the LB's get under and past pulls before they begin to develop. Downside, like there is to everything, is that it opens up more looks in the RPO game for Mark Andrews.
Either way, this defense was far too aggressive and way to many communication busts off motion the first time around. Delpit needs to spend extra time in the film room and meeting room this week. Because, until the Ravens see that he isn't a crux of gap integrity issues, they're going to go right back at him and he has to be prepared to fill that same role Adams did last week.
edit: Two more observations.
Lamar LOVES starting his progressions Mark Andrews side, even if the defensive leverage isn't ideal for it. Where Seattle fucked around and found out, was calling pressures FROM the same side Andrews was on. That's going to be a big no-no moving forward, because you aren't going to be able to surprise Lamar from a side where his eyes are starting.
Really want to see the defense structure around more 5 man pressures, start to finish this time. Jackson has become a patient enough passer where he isn't bailing on clean pockets consistently if he anticipates it or gets ghosts more than he feels it, especially early if you don't get to him. He still isn't elite or even significantly above average throwing off balance or off platform going from 1 to 2 to 3... but if you give him a clean pocket to step and throw, despite his wonky motion, he delivers a pretty pass.
double edit: For the gambles. Lamar Jackson O/U 209 passing yards. If the Browns offense comes out healthy and actually forces the Ravens to have to move the ball in the 2nd half, I'd feel comfortable taking the over on that for Lamar. Pass attempts will probably sit between 24-27 as well.
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nickers top ten of stupid
Kevin is gonna ruin Deshaun just like he ruined Mayfield... Stef is a QB killer...
and he got pissed at me for calling him out ? cousins brissett and mayfield all had their best years working with kevin .
I will never bring this up again. And I never bet on a Browns game, My heart can't take it
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