MUST WIN GAMES

[ballpeen]

@orion said:

In my opinion, MUST WIN GAMES are any team that you're supposed to beat (the weaker teams in the league) and / or  Your division rivals at home.  - Then you play 50-50 with the rest of the games.  That'll get you right in the mix for the playoffs.  If you can't do that then you don't belong in the playoffs.

1    Cincinnati    1:00 pm     Home        MUST WIN
2    Pittsburgh    8:15 pm    Away
3    Tennessee    1:00 pm    Home
4    Baltimore    1:00 pm      Home        MUST WIN
5    BYE
6    San Francisco  1:00 pm Home
7    Indianapolis    1:00 pm   Away
8    Seattle    4:05 pm          Away
9    Arizona    1:00 pm          Home        MUST WIN
10    Baltimore    1:00 pm     Away
11    Pittsburgh    1:00 pm    Home         MUST WIN
12    Denver    4:05 pm        Away
13    L.A. Rams    4:25 pm    Away
14    Jacksonville    1:00 pm  Home 
15    Chicago    TBA              Home        MUST WIN
16    Houston    1:00 pm       Away        MUST WIN
17    N.Y. Jets    8:15 pm       Home
18    Cincinnati    TBA           Away

During the season, a solid team may become a weaker team for whatever reason...loss of a QB maybe.   And a thought to be weaker team may become a strong team, for whatever reason.  You still have to beat the teams that you're supposed to beat.  So, to me, we need to come out of this with at least 11 wins. (12 would be nice since we have the extra home game)  -  I predicted us 9-8 in Dutch's thread.

- Papa's team plays Grandson's team in week 14 -     
 

I get what you are saying, but if we win your must win games and nothing else, we win 7 games.

Just play the season.  All games are must win, and know you aren't going to win all of them.  You never know which loss is going to hurt the most.  You never know which win is going to help the most.  That season ending loss to the Bengals which you project might be the killer.

I do understand you may not project it as a loss, but it could be the must win game.

Just stack up wins and hope it is good enough.

[Orion]

@sdbacker80 said:

They are all important but Week 10-14 will tell us everything we need to know about this 2023 team.

Yeah.  That's going to be a rough stretch.  I think, with that in mind, that it's important for us to start strong with all of those home games.  

@ballpeen said:

I get what you are saying, but if we win your must win games and nothing else, we win 7 games.

I count 6.  But that gets us halfway there.  

People like to say that all wins are equally important.  But it's just not true.  We would trade a 49ers victory for a Steelers victory any day of the week.  And it's not just because we hate the Steelers...it's because it's a divisional game...which is of the highest value.  Followed by conference games.  

And must win games are fluid as the season unfolds.  We've been there many times when October starts to wane, and every game becomes a must win.  But if we're vying for a playoff spot in the latter part of the season, a game that really wasn't a must win becomes one because we may need the tiebreaker against that specific team.

Again, I've always felt, if you beat up on the teams that you're supposed to beat...and play 50-50 with everyone else, you'll be in the mix for the playoffs...and to me, this is what it looks like before the opening day kickoff.

-  Thanks for the responses!

[DieHardBrownsFan1]

[nickers]

@diehardbrownsfan1 said:

Massages for everybody!?!?

[Orion]

This week's game at Pittsburgh is not one of 'my' must win games.  But there's lots of reasons that it's a must win.

First and foremost   IT'S THE FRIGGIN' STEELERS!!!!!!!!  

Secondly, It's a chance to be 2-0 in the division!  

We would be the division leader.

We would remain undefeated.  

The Steelers appear to be such that it's a winnable game for us. 

It would keep the nay sayers at bay for another week.  

It would be a momentum building event.  Winning can beget winning.  

Let's WIN!!!    

[ballpeen]

I agree.  I think we probably should, but back to your original question, I am hard pressed to name a game we don't need to win.

Two wins is the start of a streak.  Then we have a chance to win 3 in a row.  Good teams consistently stack 2-3 wins over the course of the season.

If we dick around and win one, lose one, that isn't going to do anything.

[Orion]

So, by my (crazy) metric,  We're one game up.      At season's end Even would be 10 wins.

Just before opening day I had Houston as a team we were supposed to beat.  If I were to adjust, I would move the Must Win from Houston to the Jets.

We just won two very important games.  But we typically suck when we play out west.  We need to win one of them.  And they both won this past weekend.  

[syd]

@orion said:

We need to win one of them

and for what ever reason I think we beat the  donkeys and lose to the rams

[hoorta]

@ballpeen said:

I get what you are saying, but if we win your must win games and nothing else, we win 7 games.

Just play the season.  All games are must win, and know you aren't going to win all of them.  You never know which loss is going to hurt the most.  You never know which win is going to help the most.  That season ending loss to the Bengals which you project might be the killer.

I do understand you may not project it as a loss, but it could be the must win game.

Just stack up wins and hope it is good enough.

'peen it happens every year without fail  Teams that you thought were going to suck- don't.

@orion said:

So, by my (crazy) metric,  We're one game up.      At season's end Even would be 10 wins.

Just before opening day I had Houston as a team we were supposed to beat.  If I were to adjust, I would move the Must Win from Houston to the Jets.

We just won two very important games.  But we typically suck when we play out west.  We need to win one of them.  And they both won this past weekend.  

Sorry- Denver and the Rams are very winnable games. Yeah, the home game against the Bears is a game they should win.  Houston is playing surprisingly good football, but not in my "must win" category. But finishing off against the Jets on TNF, and then the Bengals on the road?  Win 'em both.    

[Orion]

@hoorta said:

Houston is playing surprisingly good football, but not in my "must win" category

Right.  I'll adjust the chart for the current conditions of the Texans & Jets and move the Must Win from Houston down to the Jets.  (Houston's QB is playing well...and the Jets lost theirs in game 1)  But I set up the chart during the week before game 1.    -   So right now we're on track to win 11 games.  

[MDDawg]

I also had 11 wins at the beginning of the season, looks like we're on track. "Must win" games is language of the former Browns teams not this one.