AFC Playoff Picture
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8 weeks into the season we can start to see which teams are for real...which ones are really bad...and which ones have an outside chance for the playoffs. Right now there are probably 13 teams with a SHOT at getting into the 6 playoff spots...but reality will cut that number considerably.
To start with, here are the division leaders:
East: New England 5-2 (division record is better than Buffalo)
West: Denver 4-3
North: Pittsburgh 5-2
South: Tennessee 7-0
And here are the CURRENT wildcard leaders:
WC #1: Buffalo 5-2
WC #2: Baltimore 4-3 (conference record is better than NYJ)
The next group is:
NY Jets: 4-3
Cleveland: 3-4
Indianapolis: 3-4
Miami: 3-4
Jacksonville: 3-4
Houston: 3-4
San Diego 3-5
Amazingly, this coming week is going to go a long way in determining who will still be in the hunt come the end of the season. Big games include:
NYJ @ Buffalo - The winner of this will likely have the inside track for the first WC spot, especially if it is Buffalo...but a Buffalo win also keeps their Div Champ hopes alive. With the Bills 3-0 at home and the Jets just 1-2 on the road...the Jets likely fall to 4-4 (with a 3-4 conference record.
Baltimore @ Cleveland - A Baltimore win solidifies them as a contender for BOTH the WC spot and the AFC North Div crown. A Cleveland win pulls them even with Baltimore and give them a 4-1 record in their last 5 games...and with games vs Denver/Buf/Hou/Indy in the next 4 weeks they would be in control of their own destiny. After the big road win I see the Browns finally getting a little more consistent.
Miami @ Denver - Miami is a strange team. They win games they shouldn't...and lose ones they should be competitive in. Already they have beaten NE/Buf/SD...all teams thought to be in the playoff hunt. Denver had a hot start, but have looked shaky of late...going 1-3 over their last 4 games. Their lack of defense should feed into the Dolphins strengths...and Porter may be visiting the Broncos backfield often.
New England @ Indianapolis - New England seems to be doing it with smoke and mirrors. Nothing really stands out about this team...their D is old..and their QB is NOT Tom Brady. The Colts are suffering from a sever lack of OL and D. With Indy at home and NEEDING a win to stay in the hunt...I highly doubt Manning will let this team lose.
Other games with playoff implications: Jax @ Cinci; Hou @ Min; Pit @ Was
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\ said:
8 weeks into the season we can start to see which teams are for real...which ones are really bad...and which ones have an outside chance for the playoffs. Right now there are probably 13 teams with a SHOT at getting into the 6 playoff spots...but reality will cut that number considerably.To start with, here are the division leaders:
East: New England 5-2 (division record is better than Buffalo)
West: Denver 4-3
North: Pittsburgh 5-2
South: Tennessee 7-0
And here are the CURRENT wildcard leaders:
WC #1: Buffalo 5-2
WC #2: Baltimore 4-3 (conference record is better than NYJ)
The next group is:
NY Jets: 4-3
Cleveland: 3-4
Indianapolis: 3-4
Miami: 3-4
Jacksonville: 3-4
Houston: 3-4
San Diego 3-5
Amazingly, this coming week is going to go a long way in determining who will still be in the hunt come the end of the season. Big games include:
NYJ @ Buffalo - The winner of this will likely have the inside track for the first WC spot, especially if it is Buffalo...but a Buffalo win also keeps their Div Champ hopes alive. With the Bills 3-0 at home and the Jets just 1-2 on the road...the Jets likely fall to 4-4 (with a 3-4 conference record.
Baltimore @ Cleveland - A Baltimore win solidifies them as a contender for BOTH the WC spot and the AFC North Div crown. A Cleveland win pulls them even with Baltimore and give them a 4-1 record in their last 5 games...and with games vs Denver/Buf/Hou/Indy in the next 4 weeks they would be in control of their own destiny. After the big road win I see the Browns finally getting a little more consistent.
Miami @ Denver - Miami is a strange team. They win games they shouldn't...and lose ones they should be competitive in. Already they have beaten NE/Buf/SD...all teams thought to be in the playoff hunt. Denver had a hot start, but have looked shaky of late...going 1-3 over their last 4 games. Their lack of defense should feed into the Dolphins strengths...and Porter may be visiting the Broncos backfield often.
New England @ Indianapolis - New England seems to be doing it with smoke and mirrors. Nothing really stands out about this team...their D is old..and their QB is NOT Tom Brady. The Colts are suffering from a sever lack of OL and D. With Indy at home and NEEDING a win to stay in the hunt...I highly doubt Manning will let this team lose.
Other games with playoff implications: Jax @ Cinci; Hou @ Min; Pit @ Was
The magic number is 6 my friend....Browns win 9 games they will make the playoffs.
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\ said:
8 weeks into the season we can start to see which teams are for real...which ones are really bad...and which ones have an outside chance for the playoffs. Right now there are probably 13 teams with a SHOT at getting into the 6 playoff spots...but reality will cut that number considerably.To start with, here are the division leaders:
East: New England 5-2 (division record is better than Buffalo)
West: Denver 4-3
North: Pittsburgh 5-2
South: Tennessee 7-0
And here are the CURRENT wildcard leaders:
WC #1: Buffalo 5-2
WC #2: Baltimore 4-3 (conference record is better than NYJ)
The next group is:
NY Jets: 4-3
Cleveland: 3-4
Indianapolis: 3-4
Miami: 3-4
Jacksonville: 3-4
Houston: 3-4
San Diego 3-5
Amazingly, this coming week is going to go a long way in determining who will still be in the hunt come the end of the season. Big games include:
NYJ @ Buffalo - The winner of this will likely have the inside track for the first WC spot, especially if it is Buffalo...but a Buffalo win also keeps their Div Champ hopes alive. With the Bills 3-0 at home and the Jets just 1-2 on the road...the Jets likely fall to 4-4 (with a 3-4 conference record.
Baltimore @ Cleveland - A Baltimore win solidifies them as a contender for BOTH the WC spot and the AFC North Div crown. A Cleveland win pulls them even with Baltimore and give them a 4-1 record in their last 5 games...and with games vs Denver/Buf/Hou/Indy in the next 4 weeks they would be in control of their own destiny. After the big road win I see the Browns finally getting a little more consistent.
Miami @ Denver - Miami is a strange team. They win games they shouldn't...and lose ones they should be competitive in. Already they have beaten NE/Buf/SD...all teams thought to be in the playoff hunt. Denver had a hot start, but have looked shaky of late...going 1-3 over their last 4 games. Their lack of defense should feed into the Dolphins strengths...and Porter may be visiting the Broncos backfield often.
New England @ Indianapolis - New England seems to be doing it with smoke and mirrors. Nothing really stands out about this team...their D is old..and their QB is NOT Tom Brady. The Colts are suffering from a sever lack of OL and D. With Indy at home and NEEDING a win to stay in the hunt...I highly doubt Manning will let this team lose.
Other games with playoff implications: Jax @ Cinci; Hou @ Min; Pit @ Was
Great post a lot of good stuff there and clarification of who is still in and who is playing who and all those things. Oddly the Steelers are going to be in position here possibly to help out the Browns in the coming weeks in the wildcard standings should they beat the Colts and Chargers in Pittsburgh which I believe will happen. I agree with you that Indy is facing a MUST win game this week at home against the Patriots before coming to play the Steelers here at Heinz Field the next week. They cannot afford to fall to 3-5 and then make a trip to Pittsburgh the week after where they have been terrible on the road this season.
Buffalo is still in excellent shape to win the division because they still have 2 games left with the Patriots and 2 games left with the Jets. Dont count out the Texans and Jags the next 2 weeks either. They both have winnable games coming up Houston plays the Vikings on the road and the Ravens at home the next 2 games, and the Jags play the Bengals and the Lions the next 2 weeks both are the only winless teams in football. So both of them can easily be 5-4 as well and right back in the thick of things. The two teams that stand out I think that really need to start winning are the Colts and Jags because both of them have already lost a lot of tiebrakers in the AFC, both have terrible conference records, and both have a lot of tough games coming up later on in the season or in the Colts case the next few weeks.
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Oddly the Steelers are going to be in position here possibly to help out the Browns in the coming weeks in the wildcard standings should they beat the Colts and Chargers in Pittsburgh which I believe will happen.
Kind of a win/win for the Browns. If the Steelers win, we gain on the WC spot...and if the Steelers lose, we gain on the Division lead.
GOTTA LOVE IT!!!
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\ said:
Oddly the Steelers are going to be in position here possibly to help out the Browns in the coming weeks in the wildcard standings should they beat the Colts and Chargers in Pittsburgh which I believe will happen.
Kind of a win/win for the Browns. If the Steelers win, we gain on the WC spot...and if the Steelers lose, we gain on the Division lead.
GOTTA LOVE IT!!!
You gain if the Browns win of course that has to happen first and foremost...Im rooting for the Browns this week because I want both the Browns and Ravens to be 4-4 and the Steelers to win on Monday night it puts them at 6-2 and a full 2 1/2 games up on both of them. Even if the Steelers do lose on Monday night and the Browns happen to win and be 4-4 they will still be 5-3 still with no conference losses in the AFC at 5-0 and have the next 3 games at home against AFC teams such as the Colts,Chargers,and Bengals. I'm not expecting the Steelers to lose to the Redskins but if they do it wont mean the end of the world because the Steelers will still be in pretty good shape with a not so good Colts and Chargers teams coming in here the next 2 weeks before the winless Bungles on the Thursday night in November.
The bottom line is the schedule sets up very well for the Steelers in the upcoming weeks after the Redskins game Monday night win or lose. If the Steelers win the Skins game they are at the very worst going to go 2-1 in that 3 game home stretch. Both Indy and San Diego will not beat the Steelers. One of them might, but both of them wont. And the Steelers are going to beat the Bengals. So in my opinion, if we beat the Skins Monday night we go into the Pats game on November 30th with no worse then an 8-3 record. The Browns are going to lose at least one game between now and November 30th so that will give them at least 5 losses and possibly more depending upon what happens.
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all these for sure wins and losses you know about make me want to contact you about helping me pick some numbers for the lottery.Not saying anything is for sure I just said the way the Colts and Chargers have looked thus far this season being inconsistent and playing horrible on the road I dont see both of them being able to beat the Steelers here at Heinz Field. The Giants are a much better team on both sides of the ball then both the Colts and Chargers are and the Steelers were one botched long snap on a punt away from beating them.
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Keep them both for another year....Quinn is under contract for 3 more years and $5M isn't really that big of a gamble.\ said:
Terrific stuff, John.I agree with whoever said the magic number is 6 more wins and a 9-7 record. That gets us to the playoffs.
To drag my favorite subject back in: The Browns go 9-7 and get in as a Wild Card. Anderson has a 75 passer rating, good for 23rd in the NFL. He's owed a $5 mill bonus that all but guarantees he's the starter again next year, sealing Quinn's trade fate.
What do you do?
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I figured we were doomed after the Washington loss, and I may be wrong.
The way I see it is we absolutely have to win our next 2 games at home...can we score enough to beat Balt? Can we actually beat Denver (they have owned us since the early 70s)?
We will have to score TDs to beat Balt, no more red zone disasters for #3.
If we get to 5-4, then we can start hoping....
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\ said:
I figured we were doomed after the Washington loss, and I may be wrong.The way I see it is we absolutely have to win our next 2 games at home...can we score enough to beat Balt? Can we actually beat Denver (they have owned us since the early 70s)?
We will have to score TDs to beat Balt, no more red zone disasters for #3.
If we get to 5-4, then we can start hoping....
I would have to agree with the "doomed" feeling and would love to be wrong about us making the playoffs but as someone said in an earlier post.."we have to win those games first". Now if you are talking about our records vs other teams then here are a few matchups.
Against BAL we are 5-11
The Broncos have owned us at 5-16 but thank god we are playing at home.
7-5 against BUF
2-2 against HOU
14-10 against the colts
32-26 over the Titans
31-14 over PHI
33-34 against CIN
and 55-53 over the Squeelers (but I think that's wrong. I think they lead in all time Wins)
I have to agree with the fact the the Broncos have owned us in the past but as long as we don't see any major meltdowns we should be able to handle them at home.
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and the Steelers were one botched long snap on a punt away from beating them.Hahahahaha...
I just find it hilarious to see a steeler fan talking about "one play away from victory"
The Browns have been there with you guys for the past few games, one play away indeed.
I know you personally haven't busted our balls over this (or maybe you have and I missed it) but many of your brethren have slammed us for such talk.
The Browns are playing better and have definitely turned things around over the last 4 games going 3-1. They have played just as good if not better as the Steelers have over the course of the last few weeks. But they are still are 2 games behind in the standings at the end of the day with a trip to Pittsburgh still yet to come. I will come on here and make no excuses the Steelers didnt get it done against the Giants and they made more plays then the Steelers did. But for some Browns fans to come on here and say the Steelers are about to go into a downslide because of one loss is just dumb. We were hearing the same exact things on this board from the same people after the loss to the Eagles where the Steelers played horrible as well about how things were about to fall apart and look what happened. One game and one loss will not destroy this Steelers team. It has too much talent, and is too good on both sides of the ball to just completely go in the tank and fall apart like so many on this board like to think will happen. Like it or not the Steelers arent gonna fall apart and the Browns are still going to have to go through the Steelers that last game of the season here at Heinz Field most likely to either win the division or make the playoffs as a wildcard team when all is said and done.
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\ said:
I still cant believe we are still in the hunt now if Mr. Inconsistant can get on a roll and not trip over his own size 16 clubfeet we can make it to the playoffs..
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\ said:
Nice Work Dawg Fan! It would be awsome if you could keep this post updated every week.That is the plan...I will be editing the first post every week to show things are progressing....as long as we are even remotely in the running.
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The results of these games did a lot....
NYJ @ Buffalo - the Jets win takes them to 5-3 and are not among the leaders for a playoff spot. Buffalo, also now 5-3 are in a bit of trouble as they are 0-2 in division and due to that are in 3rd in the East.
Baltimore @ Cleveland - Baltimore, now at 5-3 (same in conference) is now in the #1 WC spot....and a loss by Pittsburgh tonight gives them a share of the North. Cleveland is now 0-2 vs Baltimore...and 0-1 vs Pittsburgh...which means it's only chance is to catch at least 2 teams that are 2 games ahead of them....which is NOT LIKELY!
Miami @ Denver - Miami continues to beat playoff level teams...and with this victory is sitting 8th and still in a viable position. Denver is melting down, and is 1-4 over it's last 5 games....I still think they continue this and SD ends up winning the West.
New England @ Indianapolis - The Colts win keeps them in the chase for the final WC spot...and makes things very confusing in the East with NE/NYJ/Buf all at 5-3...and Miami at 4-4!!!
Other games with playoff implications: Jacksonville's loss has all but eliminated them as they have slipped to 12th. Houston is also pretty much out of it now ranking 13th.
Pittsburgh @ Washington has become a HUGE game for the Steelers. They need this considering the remaining schedule they face compared to what the Ravens face.
Here are the standing as of now:
East: New England 5-3 (overall like games record)
West: Denver 4-4
North: Pittsburgh 5-2 (will still lead even if they lose...by head to head)
South: Tennessee 8-0
And here are the CURRENT wildcard leaders:
WC #1: Baltimore 5-3 (best conference record of teams at 5-3)
WC #2: NY Jets 5-3 (Head to head vs Buffalo)
The next group is:
Buffalo: 5-3
Indianapolis: 4-4
Miami: 4-4
San Diego: 3-5 (best bet is winning the west)
They all but deads:
Cleveland: 3-5
Houston: 3-5
Jacksonville's loss to Cleveland actually makes it's chances worse than Houston's...so count them out.
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\ said:
The results of these games did a lot....NYJ @ Buffalo - the Jets win takes them to 5-3 and are not among the leaders for a playoff spot. Buffalo, also now 5-3 are in a bit of trouble as they are 0-2 in division and due to that are in 3rd in the East.
Baltimore @ Cleveland - Baltimore, now at 5-3 (same in conference) is now in the #1 WC spot....and a loss by Pittsburgh tonight gives them a share of the North. Cleveland is now 0-2 vs Baltimore...and 0-1 vs Pittsburgh...which means it's only chance is to catch at least 2 teams that are 2 games ahead of them....which is NOT LIKELY!
Miami @ Denver - Miami continues to beat playoff level teams...and with this victory is sitting 8th and still in a viable position. Denver is melting down, and is 1-4 over it's last 5 games....I still think they continue this and SD ends up winning the West.
New England @ Indianapolis - The Colts win keeps them in the chase for the final WC spot...and makes things very confusing in the East with NE/NYJ/Buf all at 5-3...and Miami at 4-4!!!
Other games with playoff implications: Jacksonville's loss has all but eliminated them as they have slipped to 12th. Houston is also pretty much out of it now ranking 13th.
Pittsburgh @ Washington has become a HUGE game for the Steelers. They need this considering the remaining schedule they face compared to what the Ravens face.
Here are the standing as of now:
East: New England 5-3 (overall like games record)
West: Denver 4-4
North: Pittsburgh 5-2 (will still lead even if they lose...by head to head)
South: Tennessee 8-0
And here are the CURRENT wildcard leaders:
WC #1: Baltimore 5-3 (best conference record of teams at 5-3)
WC #2: NY Jets 5-3 (Head to head vs Buffalo)
The next group is:
Buffalo: 5-3
Indianapolis: 4-4
Miami: 4-4
San Diego: 3-5 (best bet is winning the west)
They all but deads:
Cleveland: 3-5
Houston: 3-5
Jacksonville's loss to Cleveland actually makes it's chances worse than Houston's...so count them out.
The Steelers are still even if they lose tonight not only in good shape to win the division still even though they would be tied with the Ravens, but also get that number 2 seed in the AFC quite simply because the Steelers still have 0 conference losses and are currently 5-0 in the AFC with 3 winnable AFC games coming up at home these next 3 weeks against Indy,SD,and Cincy. In the AFC East no matter who is leading that division here is how it breaks down with AFC games at the moment. Buffalo has 2 conferences with a record of 5-3,the Jets have 3 conference losses with a record of 5-3 ,and the Pats have 3 as well with a record of 5-3. And all 3 of these teams play each other the next few weeks which will give them more conference losses. In the AFC West the Broncos are at first place at 4-4 but are 2-4 in the AFC, and the Chargers are 3-5 and are 3-3 in the AFC. So the point is we can still lose to Washington tonight and have 0 conference losses and be in first place with the Ravens since we did beat them and have the head to head.
I dont know where you get off in thinking that the Ravens have an easier schedule then the Steelers the rest of the way. The Ravens the next 2 weeks have to go to Houston and play the Texans who always play good at Reliant and are desperate to get a win to stay in wildcard contention, and then they have to go play the Giants down in New York the week after. The Steelers in that span will be home against the Colts and Chargers followed by the Bengals. The Ravens also have games still left with Philly,Washington,and Dallas as well. So while the Steelers schedule is tough and the Ravens still have a game with us at the own place in December the Steelers still have the favorable matchups in the schedule I believe coming up over the next few weeks.
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As I said in another post the Browns chances of catching the Steelers or the Ravens in this division now went poof like a fart in the wind yesterday. I do enjoy reading your post WPB and how you break everything down. But I really think you and a lot of other people on this board overlooked the Ravens, and automatically thought just because the game was in Cleveland and the Browns got their ass kicked in Week 3 by the Ravens that they just had to show up and they were going to win this game.
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As I said in another post the Browns chances of catching the Steelers or the Ravens in this division now went poof like a fart in the wind yesterday. I do enjoy reading your post WPB and how you break everything down. But I really think you and a lot of other people on this board overlooked the Ravens, and automatically thought just because the game was in Cleveland and the Browns got their ass kicked in Week 3 by the Ravens that they just had to show up and they were going to win this game.The Ravens didn't give us an ass whoopin in either game. We gave it to them plain and simple. Both games were hi-lighted much more by what we FAILED to do than what the Ravens actually did.
In game 1....DA INT's destroyed an incredible defensive game and handed them the victory...and you cannot even say those INT's were great plays...YOU could have made them.
In yesterday's game....the offense did NOTHING in the first half except the tying FG...and then Cribbs handed them ANOTHER TD before they went into hibernation for the rest of the game and left the D out to dry. And again, a DA INT on a gimme sealed it.
Cleveland LOST 2 games...Baltimore was just the lucky recipient.
Anyway, we are pretty much done...I am hoping to see if we have the future sitting on the bench over the next couple weeks....otherwise this season will be a total loss and not worth watching.
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