Some Thoughts On Turnover Ratio and Joe Flacco
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In 2023 our turnover ratio was -22 the worst in the NFL. We still made the playoffs, and could have easily finished 12-5 had we not conceded the last game of the year since we could not catch the Ravens to win the division. Yet, with that horrendous ratio, we were in the thick of the division race right to the end of the season.
We turned the ball over in 2023 37 times. That is bad. BUT what was worse is that we only forced 15 turnovers - with the BEST defense in the NFL and a HISTORICALLY good defense for about the first 5 or 6 games, or however long that stretch lasted where we held teams under 200 yards per game on average. This is HIGHLY perplexing.
How does the BEST defense in the NFL ONLY force less than ONE turnover per game?
Leaving that question aside for the moment, let's dwell on the fact that we threw 23 interceptions that year. That's not good - it is very bad. PJ Walker, DTR, and Flacco were roughly at about the same BAD rate for throwing picks - we cannot just pick out one of them out and say the lion's share of that bad performance rests with one or another of these guys. Deshaun was somewhat better in not throwing picks but that is only because he wasn't throwing the ball downfield to hardly anyone, most of the time, which of course was incredibly problematic in another way.
Since Flacco is our starting quarterback this year, let us take a look at what Flacco has done in his career:
GP CMP ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD INT LNG SACK RTG QBR 2008 16 257 428 60.0 2,971 6.9 14 12 70 32 80.3 47.1 2009 16 315 499 63.1 3,613 7.2 21 12 72 36 88.9 58.5 2010 16 306 489 62.6 3,622 7.4 25 10 67 40 93.6 59.1 2011 16 312 542 57.6 3,610 6.7 20 12 74 31 80.9 63.7 2012 16 317 531 59.7 3,817 7.2 22 10 61 35 87.7 51.4 2013 16 362 614 59.0 3,912 6.4 19 22 74 48 73.1 48.0 2014 16 344 554 62.1 3,986 7.2 27 12 80 19 91.0 68.6 2015 10 266 413 64.4 2,791 6.8 14 12 50 16 83.1 50.8 2016 16 436 672 64.9 4,317 6.4 20 15 95 33 83.5 52.5 2017 16 352 549 64.1 3,141 5.7 18 13 66 27 80.4 47.1 2018 9 232 379 61.2 2,465 6.5 12 6 71 16 84.2 54.8 2019 8 171 262 65.3 1,822 7.0 6 5 70 26 85.1 50.8 2020 5 74 134 55.2 864 6.4 6 3 52 7 80.6 50.3 2021 2 27 42 64.3 338 8.0 3 0 62 2 113.0 49.5 2022 5 110 191 57.6 1,051 5.5 5 3 66 10 75.2 36.1 2023 5 123 204 60.3 1,616 7.9 13 8 75 8 90.2 49.1 2024 8 162 248 65.3 1,761 7.1 12 7 65 18 90.5 53.4 196 4166 6751 61.7 45,697 6.8 257 162 95 404 84.4 - Several things:
1. In his career, Flacco has averaged 0.83 interceptions per game - in a 17 game season assuming he plays the entire year (yes, of course, there's an if here) that comes out to 14 picks. Think about that - if we had thrown 14 picks in 2023 instead of throwing 23 picks, how many more games might we have won? If you look at Flacco's career stats above, his interceptions seem to have gone up just slightly the second half vs. the first but not by much on average, so say he throws 15 interceptions vs. 23? That is still an enormous theoretical improvement in 2023 a year in which we went to the playoffs and outright contended for the division title.
2. There is one year - 2013 - where Flacco threw 22 picks - an outlier season. Maybe somebody has some insight into why this was?
3. Flacco's 2nd highest YPA season was the 5 games he played under Stefanski's offense. That is great! He also averaged 1.6 interceptions per game - which extrapolates to 27 (!) per 17 game season. That is horrible.
What is the benefit of a full camp and the opportunity of really absorbing Stefanski's offense on reducing Flacco's picks, and keeping them more in line with his career average vs. the outlier year he had in 2013 and the bad interception percentage he had in 2023 when he walked cold into a totally foreign situation?
I believe if the Browns can be neutral to just slightly positive in turnover ratio - or frankly even just slightly negative - in 2025 we can both make the playoffs and even win the division. If our defense returns to the form of 2023 or close, it is hard to believe we cannot turn teams over significantly more than 15 times.
It is almost impossible - almost - that our turnover ratio can be any worse than the past two seasons. We don't have to be great or outstanding, but if we can just find our way to the league median or thereabouts in this category we are going to win a LOT of games, schedule be damned.
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In 2023 our turnover ratio was -22 the worst in the NFL. We still made the playoffs, and could have easily finished 12-5 had we not conceded the last game of the year since we could not catch the Ravens to win the division. Yet, with that horrendous ratio, we were in the thick of the division race right to the end of the season.
We turned the ball over in 2023 37 times. That is bad. BUT what was worse is that we only forced 15 turnovers - with the BEST defense in the NFL and a HISTORICALLY good defense for about the first 5 or 6 games, or however long that stretch lasted where we held teams under 200 yards per game on average. This is HIGHLY perplexing.
How does the BEST defense in the NFL ONLY force less than ONE turnover per game?
Leaving that question aside for the moment, let's dwell on the fact that we threw 23 interceptions that year. That's not good - it is very bad. PJ Walker, DTR, and Flacco were roughly at about the same BAD rate for throwing picks - we cannot just pick out one of them out and say the lion's share of that bad performance rests with one or another of these guys. Deshaun was somewhat better in not throwing picks but that is only because he wasn't throwing the ball downfield to hardly anyone, most of the time, which of course was incredibly problematic in another way.
Since Flacco is our starting quarterback this year, let us take a look at what Flacco has done in his career:
GP CMP ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD INT LNG SACK RTG QBR 2008 16 257 428 60.0 2,971 6.9 14 12 70 32 80.3 47.1 2009 16 315 499 63.1 3,613 7.2 21 12 72 36 88.9 58.5 2010 16 306 489 62.6 3,622 7.4 25 10 67 40 93.6 59.1 2011 16 312 542 57.6 3,610 6.7 20 12 74 31 80.9 63.7 2012 16 317 531 59.7 3,817 7.2 22 10 61 35 87.7 51.4 2013 16 362 614 59.0 3,912 6.4 19 22 74 48 73.1 48.0 2014 16 344 554 62.1 3,986 7.2 27 12 80 19 91.0 68.6 2015 10 266 413 64.4 2,791 6.8 14 12 50 16 83.1 50.8 2016 16 436 672 64.9 4,317 6.4 20 15 95 33 83.5 52.5 2017 16 352 549 64.1 3,141 5.7 18 13 66 27 80.4 47.1 2018 9 232 379 61.2 2,465 6.5 12 6 71 16 84.2 54.8 2019 8 171 262 65.3 1,822 7.0 6 5 70 26 85.1 50.8 2020 5 74 134 55.2 864 6.4 6 3 52 7 80.6 50.3 2021 2 27 42 64.3 338 8.0 3 0 62 2 113.0 49.5 2022 5 110 191 57.6 1,051 5.5 5 3 66 10 75.2 36.1 2023 5 123 204 60.3 1,616 7.9 13 8 75 8 90.2 49.1 2024 8 162 248 65.3 1,761 7.1 12 7 65 18 90.5 53.4 196 4166 6751 61.7 45,697 6.8 257 162 95 404 84.4 - Several things:
1. In his career, Flacco has averaged 0.83 interceptions per game - in a 17 game season assuming he plays the entire year (yes, of course, there's an if here) that comes out to 14 picks. Think about that - if we had thrown 14 picks in 2023 instead of throwing 23 picks, how many more games might we have won? If you look at Flacco's career stats above, his interceptions seem to have gone up just slightly the second half vs. the first but not by much on average, so say he throws 15 interceptions vs. 23? That is still an enormous theoretical improvement in 2023 a year in which we went to the playoffs and outright contended for the division title.
2. There is one year - 2013 - where Flacco threw 22 picks - an outlier season. Maybe somebody has some insight into why this was?
3. Flacco's 2nd highest YPA season was the 5 games he played under Stefanski's offense. That is great! He also averaged 1.6 interceptions per game - which extrapolates to 27 (!) per 17 game season. That is horrible.
What is the benefit of a full camp and the opportunity of really absorbing Stefanski's offense on reducing Flacco's picks, and keeping them more in line with his career average vs. the outlier year he had in 2013 and the bad interception percentage he had in 2023 when he walked cold into a totally foreign situation?
I believe if the Browns can be neutral to just slightly positive in turnover ratio - or frankly even just slightly negative - in 2025 we can both make the playoffs and even win the division. If our defense returns to the form of 2023 or close, it is hard to believe we cannot turn teams over significantly more than 15 times.
It is almost impossible - almost - that our turnover ratio can be any worse than the past two seasons. We don't have to be great or outstanding, but if we can just find our way to the league median or thereabouts in this category we are going to win a LOT of games, schedule be damned.
In 2023 our turnover ratio was -22 the worst in the NFL. We still made the playoffs, and could have easily finished 12-5 had we not conceded the last game of the year since we could not catch the Ravens to win the division. Yet, with that horrendous ratio, we were in the thick of the division race right to the end of the season.We turned the ball over in 2023 37 times. That is bad. BUT what was worse is that we only forced 15 turnovers - with the BEST defense in the NFL and a HISTORICALLY good defense for about the first 5 or 6 games, or however long that stretch lasted where we held teams under 200 yards per game on average. This is HIGHLY perplexing.
How does the BEST defense in the NFL ONLY force less than ONE turnover per game?
Leaving that question aside for the moment, let's dwell on the fact that we threw 23 interceptions that year. That's not good - it is very bad. PJ Walker, DTR, and Flacco were roughly at about the same BAD rate for throwing picks - we cannot just pick out one of them out and say the lion's share of that bad performance rests with one or another of these guys. Deshaun was somewhat better in not throwing picks but that is only because he wasn't throwing the ball downfield to hardly anyone, most of the time, which of course was incredibly problematic in another way.
Since Flacco is our starting quarterback this year, let us take a look at what Flacco has done in his career:
GP CMP ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD INT LNG SACK RTG QBR 2008 16 257 428 60.0 2,971 6.9 14 12 70 32 80.3 47.1 2009 16 315 499 63.1 3,613 7.2 21 12 72 36 88.9 58.5 2010 16 306 489 62.6 3,622 7.4 25 10 67 40 93.6 59.1 2011 16 312 542 57.6 3,610 6.7 20 12 74 31 80.9 63.7 2012 16 317 531 59.7 3,817 7.2 22 10 61 35 87.7 51.4 2013 16 362 614 59.0 3,912 6.4 19 22 74 48 73.1 48.0 2014 16 344 554 62.1 3,986 7.2 27 12 80 19 91.0 68.6 2015 10 266 413 64.4 2,791 6.8 14 12 50 16 83.1 50.8 2016 16 436 672 64.9 4,317 6.4 20 15 95 33 83.5 52.5 2017 16 352 549 64.1 3,141 5.7 18 13 66 27 80.4 47.1 2018 9 232 379 61.2 2,465 6.5 12 6 71 16 84.2 54.8 2019 8 171 262 65.3 1,822 7.0 6 5 70 26 85.1 50.8 2020 5 74 134 55.2 864 6.4 6 3 52 7 80.6 50.3 2021 2 27 42 64.3 338 8.0 3 0 62 2 113.0 49.5 2022 5 110 191 57.6 1,051 5.5 5 3 66 10 75.2 36.1 2023 5 123 204 60.3 1,616 7.9 13 8 75 8 90.2 49.1 2024 8 162 248 65.3 1,761 7.1 12 7 65 18 90.5 53.4 196 4166 6751 61.7 45,697 6.8 257 162 95 404 84.4 - Several things:
1. In his career, Flacco has averaged 0.83 interceptions per game - in a 17 game season assuming he plays the entire year (yes, of course, there's an if here) that comes out to 14 picks. Think about that - if we had thrown 14 picks in 2023 instead of throwing 23 picks, how many more games might we have won? If you look at Flacco's career stats above, his interceptions seem to have gone up just slightly the second half vs. the first but not by much on average, so say he throws 15 interceptions vs. 23? That is still an enormous theoretical improvement in 2023 a year in which we went to the playoffs and outright contended for the division title.
2. There is one year - 2013 - where Flacco threw 22 picks - an outlier season. Maybe somebody has some insight into why this was?
3. Flacco's 2nd highest YPA season was the 5 games he played under Stefanski's offense. That is great! He also averaged 1.6 interceptions per game - which extrapolates to 27 (!) per 17 game season. That is horrible.
What is the benefit of a full camp and the opportunity of really absorbing Stefanski's offense on reducing Flacco's picks, and keeping them more in line with his career average vs. the outlier year he had in 2013 and the bad interception percentage he had in 2023 when he walked cold into a totally foreign situation?
I believe if the Browns can be neutral to just slightly positive in turnover ratio - or frankly even just slightly negative - in 2025 we can both make the playoffs and even win the division. If our defense returns to the form of 2023 or close, it is hard to believe we cannot turn teams over significantly more than 15 times.
It is almost impossible - almost - that our turnover ratio can be any worse than the past two seasons. We don't have to be great or outstanding, but if we can just find our way to the league median or thereabouts in this category we are going to win a LOT of games, schedule be damned.
Thanks for your research! The 1 thing a lot people forget was this team lost both starting Offensive Tackles (not that Jed Wills often gave it the effort of a starter or a 1st round draft pick). If that wasn't enough - Dawand Jones also landed on IR that season. Maybe even worse than all that, the Browns lost Nick Chubb in the 1st half of week 2. Moving forward, setting the edge in Pass Pro suddenly counted on a previously Unemployed LT Geron Christian. Believe it or not, it was somewhat of a pleasant surprise to see a guy willing to give it his best effort and break a sweat at such an important position. An oft-overmatched James Hudson gave it his best at RT.
Until Flacco gave the offense a pulse - this situation looked pretty hopeless especially when anyone but Flacco played QB that year. The 11-5 record he helped the Browns achieve helped us pardon his turnovers in the regular season. That said, in the post season his 2 pick-6s sunk our gridiron battle ship.
He didn't seem to have the same spark with the Jets and Colts that he gave the Browns. In spite of all that went against the Browns on the injury front in 2023 - the offensive design was a compatible fit with Flacco.
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In 2023 our turnover ratio was -22 the worst in the NFL. We still made the playoffs, and could have easily finished 12-5 had we not conceded the last game of the year since we could not catch the Ravens to win the division. Yet, with that horrendous ratio, we were in the thick of the division race right to the end of the season.
We turned the ball over in 2023 37 times. That is bad. BUT what was worse is that we only forced 15 turnovers - with the BEST defense in the NFL and a HISTORICALLY good defense for about the first 5 or 6 games, or however long that stretch lasted where we held teams under 200 yards per game on average. This is HIGHLY perplexing.
How does the BEST defense in the NFL ONLY force less than ONE turnover per game?
Leaving that question aside for the moment, let's dwell on the fact that we threw 23 interceptions that year. That's not good - it is very bad. PJ Walker, DTR, and Flacco were roughly at about the same BAD rate for throwing picks - we cannot just pick out one of them out and say the lion's share of that bad performance rests with one or another of these guys. Deshaun was somewhat better in not throwing picks but that is only because he wasn't throwing the ball downfield to hardly anyone, most of the time, which of course was incredibly problematic in another way.
Since Flacco is our starting quarterback this year, let us take a look at what Flacco has done in his career:
GP CMP ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD INT LNG SACK RTG QBR 2008 16 257 428 60.0 2,971 6.9 14 12 70 32 80.3 47.1 2009 16 315 499 63.1 3,613 7.2 21 12 72 36 88.9 58.5 2010 16 306 489 62.6 3,622 7.4 25 10 67 40 93.6 59.1 2011 16 312 542 57.6 3,610 6.7 20 12 74 31 80.9 63.7 2012 16 317 531 59.7 3,817 7.2 22 10 61 35 87.7 51.4 2013 16 362 614 59.0 3,912 6.4 19 22 74 48 73.1 48.0 2014 16 344 554 62.1 3,986 7.2 27 12 80 19 91.0 68.6 2015 10 266 413 64.4 2,791 6.8 14 12 50 16 83.1 50.8 2016 16 436 672 64.9 4,317 6.4 20 15 95 33 83.5 52.5 2017 16 352 549 64.1 3,141 5.7 18 13 66 27 80.4 47.1 2018 9 232 379 61.2 2,465 6.5 12 6 71 16 84.2 54.8 2019 8 171 262 65.3 1,822 7.0 6 5 70 26 85.1 50.8 2020 5 74 134 55.2 864 6.4 6 3 52 7 80.6 50.3 2021 2 27 42 64.3 338 8.0 3 0 62 2 113.0 49.5 2022 5 110 191 57.6 1,051 5.5 5 3 66 10 75.2 36.1 2023 5 123 204 60.3 1,616 7.9 13 8 75 8 90.2 49.1 2024 8 162 248 65.3 1,761 7.1 12 7 65 18 90.5 53.4 196 4166 6751 61.7 45,697 6.8 257 162 95 404 84.4 - Several things:
1. In his career, Flacco has averaged 0.83 interceptions per game - in a 17 game season assuming he plays the entire year (yes, of course, there's an if here) that comes out to 14 picks. Think about that - if we had thrown 14 picks in 2023 instead of throwing 23 picks, how many more games might we have won? If you look at Flacco's career stats above, his interceptions seem to have gone up just slightly the second half vs. the first but not by much on average, so say he throws 15 interceptions vs. 23? That is still an enormous theoretical improvement in 2023 a year in which we went to the playoffs and outright contended for the division title.
2. There is one year - 2013 - where Flacco threw 22 picks - an outlier season. Maybe somebody has some insight into why this was?
3. Flacco's 2nd highest YPA season was the 5 games he played under Stefanski's offense. That is great! He also averaged 1.6 interceptions per game - which extrapolates to 27 (!) per 17 game season. That is horrible.
What is the benefit of a full camp and the opportunity of really absorbing Stefanski's offense on reducing Flacco's picks, and keeping them more in line with his career average vs. the outlier year he had in 2013 and the bad interception percentage he had in 2023 when he walked cold into a totally foreign situation?
I believe if the Browns can be neutral to just slightly positive in turnover ratio - or frankly even just slightly negative - in 2025 we can both make the playoffs and even win the division. If our defense returns to the form of 2023 or close, it is hard to believe we cannot turn teams over significantly more than 15 times.
It is almost impossible - almost - that our turnover ratio can be any worse than the past two seasons. We don't have to be great or outstanding, but if we can just find our way to the league median or thereabouts in this category we are going to win a LOT of games, schedule be damned.
Several things:
Thank you for your time and efforts with this post.
we are going to win a LOT of games, schedule be damned.
I don't know that that's true. But I don't know exactly why it can't be true.
Where are we soooo deficient that we can't win games?
I understand that we drafted a bell cow RB but he's not yet on the team. But can't Ford & Samson run the ball if the OL can give them a seam?
Are our WR's so bad that we can't move the ball through the air?
Are our defensive injuries so bad that they can't get off the field anymore? Even with the draft additions?
Generally, I believe that you can only go as far as your QB can take you. Perhaps we have a fighting chance with Flacco at the helm. - ??? -
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Hey Tom, speaking of Nick Chubb, guess who will be RB 1 for the Texans the first 4 games minimum now that Joe Mixon has been placed on reserve for a non-football injury. You guessed right!!?
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I love the enthusiasm.
Teams have rebounded from horrible seasons in the past. Maybe it's the Browns' turn.
I love the enthusiasm.
Teams have rebounded from horrible seasons in the past. Maybe it's the Browns' turn.
Kick off & Kick ass! There's talent on this team Bob. I just hope Joe Flacco doesn't start acting his age during the season. We don't do that around here...
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