The NFL's Most Meaningful Stat
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@shepwrite said:
It's so weird when people battle iron-clad stats with anecdotal evidence. It makes me think of politics, which then makes me puke.On that note, you have to love that old chick from Maine for having a pair.
Actually that old broad from Maine makes me want to puke, she doesn't have a pair, she gave in to the pressure.
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the QB of the AFC North division leaders is 24th in "passer rating"
And his team is 3-2.
Hey, we could aspire to be 3-2 if our QB was 24th in passer rating. Too bad he'll end up 124th.
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@inspecta said:
Yeah you got me Golfer, I had a Retarded moment when I typed that out.....Also I got a question for you guys that love QBR, as I've never studied the formula extensively, I heard some of you say that attempts are weighted more than completions. How so? Does having more attempts hurt you? How exactly does that work in? I could google this, but I'm lazy and would rather keep the conversation going...
Formula is here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarterback_rating
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@shepwrite said:
No individual stat leads to team success or failure as consistently as passer rating. We've shown year after year how the top coincides with winning and playoffs and the bottom is for losers.but we also know that a dink n dunk offense artificially inflates QB rating.
by placing a much higher value on completion percentage over any other factors (by figuring it in twice in the calcs) it will never be a true measure of offensive effectiveness
It is really just a slightly modified measure of completion percentage.
but we also know that a dink n dunk offense artificially inflates QB rating.
by placing a much higher value on completion percentage over any other factors (by figuring it in twice in the calcs) it will never be a true measure of offensive effectiveness
It is really just a slightly modified measure of completion percentage.
Because 2 for 17 (8.5% completion rate) really produced a fvckload of points, didn't it?
The more passes you complete, the better chance you have of getting a first down.
It's pretty hard to complete 3 passes in a row and not get at least 10 yards.
Please, just stop posting already.
2009-10 Browns Prediction: 8-8 -
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great point
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That's the alternative formula. But even using the alternative way to get there, ATT far out weigh COMP. The COMP is used about the same # of times as TD, INT, and Yards.
It's stall all about what you do w/ each passing attempt. That's why the QBR is very indicative of how well a QB peforms over all.
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Its a rating of 125 Shep, VERY good
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@shepwrite said:
Thanks, PGL. And there you go, Lums.We can also look at the all-time passer ratings. 150 QBs qualify with 1,500 attempts.
At the top: Young, Manning, Warner, Brady, and Montana. Winners, winners, chicken dinners. Champions.
At the bottom: Tripucka, Phipps, Cotton Davidson, Tobin Rote, and Jack Kemp.
Losers, one and all. Even in politics.
It's a quarterback league... and always has been.
DA is working his way onto that "At the bottom:" list.
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but we also know that a dink n dunk offense artificially inflates QB rating.
by placing a much higher value on completion percentage over any other factors (by figuring it in twice in the calcs) it will never be a true measure of offensive effectiveness
It is really just a slightly modified measure of completion percentage.
Because 2 for 17 (8.5% completion rate) really produced a fvckload of points, didn't it?
The more passes you complete, the better chance you have of getting a first down.
It's pretty hard to complete 3 passes in a row and not get at least 10 yards.
Please, just stop posting already.
Because 2 for 17 (8.5% completion rate) really produced a fvckload of points, didn't it?
The more passes you complete, the better chance you have of getting a first down.
It's pretty hard to complete 3 passes in a row and not get at least 10 yards.
Please, just stop posting already.
Huh? Brady Quinn completed something above 60% and was completing 9/38 3rd down so yes comp% can be flawed.
"I will not insult your intelligence by suggesting you really believe what you just said." William F Buckley -
Not a bad statistic, but three playoff QBs and the SB winner sat in the bottom quarter of the league last year.
2008 Passer rating leaders.
1 Philip Rivers, 105.5 (Won AFC West)
2 Chad Pennington, 97.4 (Won AFC East)
3 Kurt Warner, QB 96.9 (Wild Card Super Bowl)
4 Drew Brees, QB 96.2 (Missed playoffs)
5 Peyton Manning, 95.0 (Wild Card)
6 Aaron Rodgers, 93.4 (Missed Playoffs)
7 Matt Schaub, 92.7 (Missed Playoffs)
8 Tony Romo, 91.4 (Missed Playoffs)
9 Jeff Garcia, 90.2 (Missed Playoffs)
10 Matt Cassel, 89.4 (Missed Playoffs)
11 Matt Ryan, 87.7 (Wild Card)
12 Shaun Hill, 87.5 (Missed Playoffs)
13 Seneca Wallace, 87.0 (Missed Playoffs)
14 Eli Manning, 86.4 (Won NFC East)
15 Donovan McNabb, 86.4 (Wild card)
16 Jay Cutler, 86.0 (Missed Playoffs)
17 Trent Edwards, 85.4 (Missed Playoffs)
18 Jake Delhomme, 84.7 (Missed Playoffs)
19 Jason Campbell, 84.3 (Missed Playoffs)
20 David Garrard, 81.7 (Missed Playoffs)
21 Brett Favre, 81.0 (Missed Playoffs)
22 Joe Flacco, 80.3 (Wild card)
23 Kerry Collins, 80.2 (Won AFC South)
24 Big Gay Ben 80.1 (Won Superbowl)
25 Kyle Orton, 79.6 (missed Playoffs)
26 JaMarcus Russell, 77.1 (Rapelisberger-like)
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@inspecta said:
My feeling is this, yes you can win with a QB who has a low QB rating, like Lumbergh pointed out it does place an abnormally high value on completion percentage. Let's say a QB is 10/28.....not a good completion percentage, but of those 10 passes, 4 went for TD's then well.....uhhh your team will most likely win.It doesn't put an abnormally high value on completion percentage. It put value on attempt the most. That is used in all 4 formulas used to calculate QBR. COMP, TD, INT, and Yards are each only used once. Basically it's all about what you did w/ those attempts.
Masters said:
It doesn't put an abnormally high value on completion percentage. It put value on attempt the most. That is used in all 4 formulas used to calculate QBR. COMP, TD, INT, and Yards are each only used once. Basically it's all about what you did w/ those attempts.wrong.
the big problem with the formula is the use of Yards Per Attempt.
Yards Per Attempt factors in comp% all by itself.
then they mix it in with comp% again.
Hence comp% is factored in twice.
Yards factored in only once.
If they used Yards Per Completion instead of Yards Per Attempt then I'd agree with you. But they don't.
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Because 2 for 17 (8.5% completion rate) really produced a fvckload of points, didn't it?
The more passes you complete, the better chance you have of getting a first down.
It's pretty hard to complete 3 passes in a row and not get at least 10 yards.
Please, just stop posting already.
Huh? Brady Quinn completed something above 60% and was completing 9/38 3rd down so yes comp% can be flawed.
Huh? Brady Quinn completed something above 60% and was completing 9/38 3rd down so yes comp% can be flawed.
Yeah, but how many of those 3rd downs were 3rd and managable?
I'd agree comp% is flawed when viewed in a vaccuum.
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And his team is 3-2.
Hey, we could aspire to be 3-2 if our QB was 24th in passer rating. Too bad he'll end up 124th.
no they are 4-1
(Bengals QB Carson Palmer in case you didn't figure it out)
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Huh? Brady Quinn completed something above 60% and was completing 9/38 3rd down so yes comp% can be flawed.
Yeah, but how many of those 3rd downs were 3rd and managable?
I'd agree comp% is flawed when viewed in a vaccuum.
Masters said:
Yeah, but how many of those 3rd downs were 3rd and managable?I'd agree comp% is flawed when viewed in a vaccuum.
you have to remember that St.clair and whomever was our RG at the time false started a thousand times, and it was always on third down.
So you are correct in the notion that BQ didn't have very manageable 3rd downs
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Because 2 for 17 (8.5% completion rate) really produced a fvckload of points, didn't it?
The more passes you complete, the better chance you have of getting a first down.
It's pretty hard to complete 3 passes in a row and not get at least 10 yards.
Please, just stop posting already.
Huh? Brady Quinn completed something above 60% and was completing 9/38 3rd down so yes comp% can be flawed.
Huh? Brady Quinn completed something above 60% and was completing 9/38 3rd down so yes comp% can be flawed.
Quinn was 6 for 30.
Those final 3 for 8 were the 2nd half of the Ravens game, when DA was playing.
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Masters said:
It doesn't put an abnormally high value on completion percentage. It put value on attempt the most. That is used in all 4 formulas used to calculate QBR. COMP, TD, INT, and Yards are each only used once. Basically it's all about what you did w/ those attempts.wrong.
the big problem with the formula is the use of Yards Per Attempt.
Yards Per Attempt factors in comp% all by itself.
then they mix it in with comp% again.
Hence comp% is factored in twice.
Yards factored in only once.
If they used Yards Per Completion instead of Yards Per Attempt then I'd agree with you. But they don't.
wrong.
the big problem with the formula is the use of Yards Per Attempt.
Yards Per Attempt factors in comp% all by itself.
then they mix it in with comp% again.
Hence comp% is factored in twice.
Yards factored in only once.
If they used Yards Per Completion instead of Yards Per Attempt then I'd agree with you. But they don't.
It is you who is wrong chief.
First off, YPA has zero to do w/ comp %.
Secondly, actually look at the formula.
Oh, and YPC would factor in comp%, as opposed to yards per attempt. The formula is all about what you do with your ATT. See the exampe for a guy that goes 10/28 but for 4 TDs.
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but we also know that a dink n dunk offense artificially inflates QB rating.
by placing a much higher value on completion percentage over any other factors (by figuring it in twice in the calcs) it will never be a true measure of offensive effectiveness
It is really just a slightly modified measure of completion percentage.
Because 2 for 17 (8.5% completion rate) really produced a fvckload of points, didn't it?
The more passes you complete, the better chance you have of getting a first down.
It's pretty hard to complete 3 passes in a row and not get at least 10 yards.
Please, just stop posting already.
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the interesting thing about sheps QBR example, is how true it stands up for a player like DA,
lets say DA has what HE would call a good game
240 yds
12 for 24
4 TD's
2 interceptions
thats a 90.2 rating, still relatively high
The thing is, it also shows us how bad DA is really playing this year
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