The NFL's Most Meaningful Stat
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Lum likes yards per completion because it stacks the deck in a favorable way for his purpose.
So a QB going 2/20 for 100 yards would rate pretty well because its a whopping 50 YPC when a reasonable person would lament the 15 incompletions as drive stoppers, etc.
I think its safe to say that any coach will tell you that a high completion rate is a desirable trait in a QB. That might be why its weighting is what it is.
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The best measuring stick for success is YPA.........look it up
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Lum likes yards per completion because it stacks the deck in a favorable way for his purpose.
So a QB going 2/20 for 100 yards would rate pretty well because its a whopping 50 YPC when a reasonable person would lament the 15 incompletions as drive stoppers, etc.
I think its safe to say that any coach will tell you that a high completion rate is a desirable trait in a QB. That might be why its weighting is what it is.
So a QB going 2/20 for 100 yards would rate pretty well because its a whopping 50 YPC when a reasonable person would lament the 15 incompletions as drive stoppers, etc.
keep in mind the comp% is also in that formula as a stand alone stat.
So yes using YPC along with comp% would be more reasonable.
Using YPA with comp% favors short high percentage completions over longer lower percentage completions even if they produce higher overall offensive effectiveness. That is a flaw in the system.
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The best measuring stick for success is YPA.........look it up
The best measuring stick for success is YPA.........look it up
I agree, YPA standalone has probably just as much value as passer rating.
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Not saying that good QB isn't crucial to winning football. I just have issues with the passer rating. It favors completion percentages and QBs who don't have RBs who can finish a drive. TDs and completion percentage can distort a good performance.
How about Sanchez on Monday Night? Good game, right? 12-24, 172 yds, 1 td 87.3. Say he tosses a hail mary that gets picked in the end zone in the last second of the half. It's a 69 all of a sudden. Say he hands the ball off to Thomas Jones instead of the 3 yard TD pass to Braylon? It's a 72.6. Say Braylon drops that pass as he's prone to do in the past? It's a 69. Say he drops the difficult 35 yard pass that Sachez threw too. Now he has a 60.
Pretend instead that Edwards catches that beautiful pass right in his hands at the end of the game where he got the bail out interference call -- or they credit him with the TD on the ball marked at the one. Sanchez rockets from a "respectable" 87 to well over 100.
Anybody impressed with Campbell's performance in a loss against Carolina? 17-23, 145 yds, 1 td that's a 104.4. Less yards. Same TD, but he completed a higher percentage of passes to get those fewer yards.
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Ben is # 2 in the NFL
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tab...mp;d-447263-n=1
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@shepwrite said:
No individual stat leads to team success or failure as consistently as passer rating. We've shown year after year how the top coincides with winning and playoffs and the bottom is for losers.but we also know that a dink n dunk offense artificially inflates QB rating.
by placing a much higher value on completion percentage over any other factors (by figuring it in twice in the calcs) it will never be a true measure of offensive effectiveness
It is really just a slightly modified measure of completion percentage.
but we also know that a dink n dunk offense artificially inflates QB rating.
by placing a much higher value on completion percentage over any other factors (by figuring it in twice in the calcs) it will never be a true measure of offensive effectiveness
It is really just a slightly modified measure of completion percentage.
We are running a dink and dunk offense lol......and you see how well DA's stats are inflated lol
You just bonered yourself there.
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Ben is # 2 in the NFL
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tab...mp;d-447263-n=1
Ben is # 2 in the NFL
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tab...mp;d-447263-n=1
He was 24th last season.
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The Steelers own the Browns as if they purchased them on Ebay. The Browns are just 6-31 at Pittsburgh since 1970. The Steelers are 9-1 at Cleveland Browns Stadium, or as they like to call it, “Home Away From Home.” The last time the Browns defeated Pittsburgh in Cleveland, Bill Clinton was the president. Ponder that for a second.
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Not saying that good QB isn't crucial to winning football. I just have issues with the passer rating. It favors completion percentages and QBs who don't have RBs who can finish a drive. TDs and completion percentage can distort a good performance.
How about Sanchez on Monday Night? Good game, right? 12-24, 172 yds, 1 td 87.3. Say he tosses a hail mary that gets picked in the end zone in the last second of the half. It's a 69 all of a sudden. Say he hands the ball off to Thomas Jones instead of the 3 yard TD pass to Braylon? It's a 72.6. Say Braylon drops that pass as he's prone to do in the past? It's a 69. Say he drops the difficult 35 yard pass that Sachez threw too. Now he has a 60.
Pretend instead that Edwards catches that beautiful pass right in his hands at the end of the game where he got the bail out interference call -- or they credit him with the TD on the ball marked at the one. Sanchez rockets from a "respectable" 87 to well over 100.
Anybody impressed with Campbell's performance in a loss against Carolina? 17-23, 145 yds, 1 td that's a 104.4. Less yards. Same TD, but he completed a higher percentage of passes to get those fewer yards.
Not saying that good QB isn't crucial to winning football. I just have issues with the passer rating. It favors completion percentages and QBs who don't have RBs who can finish a drive. TDs and completion percentage can distort a good performance.
How about Sanchez on Monday Night? Good game, right? 12-24, 172 yds, 1 td 87.3. Say he tosses a hail mary that gets picked in the end zone in the last second of the half. It's a 69 all of a sudden. Say he hands the ball off to Thomas Jones instead of the 3 yard TD pass to Braylon? It's a 72.6. Say Braylon drops that pass as he's prone to do in the past? It's a 69. Say he drops the difficult 35 yard pass that Sachez threw too. Now he has a 60.
Anybody impressed with Campbell's performance in a loss against Carolina? 17-23, 145 yds, 1 td that's a 104.4. Less yards. Same TD, but he completed a higher percentage of passes to get those fewer yards.
It doesn't favor completion percentages, if favors attempts and what is done with them. Hence how DA's QBR actually went up by throwing an incomplete pass.
I agree that on a game by game basis, when just looking at a box score, it is misleading. But when you look at it over a stretch of time (several games, a season, a career), you will find the successful and good QBs have good QBRs.
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So a QB going 2/20 for 100 yards would rate pretty well because its a whopping 50 YPC when a reasonable person would lament the 15 incompletions as drive stoppers, etc.
keep in mind the comp% is also in that formula as a stand alone stat.
So yes using YPC along with comp% would be more reasonable.
Using YPA with comp% favors short high percentage completions over longer lower percentage completions even if they produce higher overall offensive effectiveness. That is a flaw in the system.
keep in mind the comp% is also in that formula as a stand alone stat.
So yes using YPC along with comp% would be more reasonable.
Using YPA with comp% favors short high percentage completions over longer lower percentage completions even if they produce higher overall offensive effectiveness. That is a flaw in the system.
Comp % is 1 of 4 part factors.
The factors are:
completion percentage
yards per attempt
touchdowns per attempt
interceptions per attempt
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The Steelers own the Browns as if they purchased them on Ebay. The Browns are just 6-31 at Pittsburgh since 1970. The Steelers are 9-1 at Cleveland Browns Stadium, or as they like to call it, “Home Away From Home.” The last time the Browns defeated Pittsburgh in Cleveland, Bill Clinton was the president. Ponder that for a second.
The Steelers own the Browns as if they purchased them on Ebay. The Browns are just 6-31 at Pittsburgh since 1970. The Steelers are 9-1 at Cleveland Browns Stadium, or as they like to call it, "Home Away From Home." The last time the Browns defeated Pittsburgh in Cleveland, Bill Clinton was the president. Ponder that for a second.
those were the good ol days, I miss the clinton presidency.
Dude, Quinn will come in at the half, and mop the steelers up
Quinn has specifically been studying the steelers D for YEARS now, he was on a talk show before the superbowl and he spoke of some studied tactics to beat the steelers d, that larry fits post over the middle was one of them
If Quinn can beat just one team in the league, its the Steelers, because that a game he cares about more than any other, because he isnt just a player, he is a browns fan
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I think the reason the passer rating resolves itself over time (i.e., good QB's have high ratings) is due to the reality that there are only so many mid to long range passes to be completed.
I *think* Lum's argument is something like the following:
12/30 for 300 yards, 3 TD's and 0 INT's could be just as effective as 18/30 for 300 yards, 3 TD's and 0 INT's yet the first QB would have a lower rating. One could see the difference in those two stat lines: bigger plays by the first QB and probably a few more first downs by the second.
However, can you really expect a large enough difference in YPC to justify a subpar completion rate? Stated another way, can you complete enough "big" passes week in and week out to maintain effectiveness? Maybe for a game here or there, but I'd argue you can't if for no other reason than you'll get game planned.
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Not saying that good QB isn't crucial to winning football. I just have issues with the passer rating. It favors completion percentages and QBs who don't have RBs who can finish a drive. TDs and completion percentage can distort a good performance.
How about Sanchez on Monday Night? Good game, right? 12-24, 172 yds, 1 td 87.3. Say he tosses a hail mary that gets picked in the end zone in the last second of the half. It's a 69 all of a sudden. Say he hands the ball off to Thomas Jones instead of the 3 yard TD pass to Braylon? It's a 72.6. Say Braylon drops that pass as he's prone to do in the past? It's a 69. Say he drops the difficult 35 yard pass that Sachez threw too. Now he has a 60.
Anybody impressed with Campbell's performance in a loss against Carolina? 17-23, 145 yds, 1 td that's a 104.4. Less yards. Same TD, but he completed a higher percentage of passes to get those fewer yards.
It doesn't favor completion percentages, if favors attempts and what is done with them. Hence how DA's QBR actually went up by throwing an incomplete pass.
I agree that on a game by game basis, when just looking at a box score, it is misleading. But when you look at it over a stretch of time (several games, a season, a career), you will find the successful and good QBs have good QBRs.
Masters said:
It doesn't favor completion percentages, if favors attempts and what is done with them. Hence how DA's QBR actually went up by throwing an incomplete pass.You did read my post right?????
Campbell was 17-23 for 145 yds, 1 td to register a 104.4 rating last week.
Sanchez was 12-24 for 172 yards and 1 td to register an 87.5 rating.
So with Sanchez's one more pass (24 to Campbell's 23) Sanchez gained 27 yards. Campbell's yards per attempt equaled only 6.3 yards Meaning if he had one more pass what campbell would have done with it is throw a 6 yard pass to bring his total up to 151 yards. STILL 20 YARDS SHY OF SANCHEZ. Both QBs threw one TD and no picks. But because Campbell completed almost 74% (17-23) of his passes as opposed to Sanchez's 50% (12-24), the passer rating gods awarded him with with a passer rating almost 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN SANCHEZ'S.
In case this is too much to follow, the simple breakdown is that Sanchez averaged 7.2 yards per attempt on Monday Night and Campbell averaged 6.3 yards per attempt on Sunday afternoon. With only one throw dividing them, they both threw for a single TD and no picks. Yet, despite the fact that Campbell DID LESS WITH HIS ATTEMPTS, he registered a passer rating that was nearly 20 points higher than Sanchez.
So please rethink the logic of your statement that passer rating "doesn't favor completion percentages, if favors attempts and what is done with them". Sanchez got 27 more yards with his one extra attempt and the passer rating did him no favors!
Nothing game by game about this -- Campbell versus Sanchez last week demonstrates that the passer rating formula puts an undue premium on completion percentage. I'm just comparing the raw numbers without regard to whether there was bad QB play or great QB play within those numbers.
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Masters said:
It doesn't favor completion percentages, if favors attempts and what is done with them. Hence how DA's QBR actually went up by throwing an incomplete pass.You did read my post right?????
Campbell was 17-23 for 145 yds, 1 td to register a 104.4 rating last week.
Sanchez was 12-24 for 172 yards and 1 td to register an 87.5 rating.
So with Sanchez's one more pass (24 to Campbell's 23) Sanchez gained 27 yards. Campbell's yards per attempt equaled only 6.3 yards Meaning if he had one more pass what campbell would have done with it is throw a 6 yard pass to bring his total up to 151 yards. STILL 20 YARDS SHY OF SANCHEZ. Both QBs threw one TD and no picks. But because Campbell completed almost 74% (17-23) of his passes as opposed to Sanchez's 50% (12-24), the passer rating gods awarded him with with a passer rating almost 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN SANCHEZ'S.
In case this is too much to follow, the simple breakdown is that Sanchez averaged 7.2 yards per attempt on Monday Night and Campbell averaged 6.3 yards per attempt on Sunday afternoon. With only one throw dividing them, they both threw for a single TD and no picks. Yet, despite the fact that Campbell DID LESS WITH HIS ATTEMPTS, he registered a passer rating that was nearly 20 points higher than Sanchez.
So please rethink the logic of your statement that passer rating "doesn't favor completion percentages, if favors attempts and what is done with them". Sanchez got 27 more yards with his one extra attempt and the passer rating did him no favors!
Nothing game by game about this -- Campbell versus Sanchez last week demonstrates that the passer rating formula puts an undue premium on completion percentage. I'm just comparing the raw numbers without regard to whether there was bad QB play or great QB play within those numbers.
You did read my post right?????
Campbell was 17-23 for 145 yds, 1 td to register a 104.4 rating last week.
Sanchez was 12-24 for 172 yards and 1 td to register an 87.5 rating.
So with Sanchez's one more pass (24 to Campbell's 23) Sanchez gained 27 yards. Campbell's yards per attempt equaled only 6.3 yards Meaning if he had one more pass what campbell would have done with it is throw a 6 yard pass to bring his total up to 151 yards. STILL 20 YARDS SHY OF SANCHEZ. Both QBs threw one TD and no picks. But because Campbell completed almost 74% (17-23) of his passes as opposed to Sanchez's 50% (12-24), the passer rating gods awarded him with with a passer rating almost 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN SANCHEZ'S.
In case this is too much to follow, the simple breakdown is that Sanchez averaged 7.2 yards per attempt on Monday Night Campbell averaged 6.3 yards per attempt. With only one throw dividing them, they both threw for a single TD and no picks. Yet Campbell registered a passer rating that was nearly 20 points higher than Sanchez.
So please rethink the logic of your statement that passer rating "doesn't favor completion percentages, if favors attempts and what is done with them". Sanchez got 27 more yards with his one extra attempt and the passer rating did him no favor!
I read it. Did you read mine?
How does a stat that supposedly favors completion percentage, as you stated, when by throwing an INC pass your rating goes up?
Yes, completions are a factor as is the percentage (obviously since comp factor in). But it is only one in 4 factors. Look at your stat lines, they are almost identical (20 yards is not that much in the scheme of the formula), except the # of completions. Thus Cambell gets the bump up on the QBR over Sanchez. It's only favoring completion percentage when you try to put identical numbers up with COMP being the only variable.
Look at this one from last week:
P. Manning 36/44 309 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT 109QBR
E. Manning 8/10 173 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT 158.3 QBR
Both guys completed 80%, but Eli's QBR is almost 50 points higher. So how is that favoring completion %?
It remains about attempts and what is done with them. Hence why ATT factors into all 4 factors in QBR, and COMP is only in 1.
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You did read my post right?????
Campbell was 17-23 for 145 yds, 1 td to register a 104.4 rating last week.
Sanchez was 12-24 for 172 yards and 1 td to register an 87.5 rating.
So with Sanchez's one more pass (24 to Campbell's 23) Sanchez gained 27 yards. Campbell's yards per attempt equaled only 6.3 yards Meaning if he had one more pass what campbell would have done with it is throw a 6 yard pass to bring his total up to 151 yards. STILL 20 YARDS SHY OF SANCHEZ. Both QBs threw one TD and no picks. But because Campbell completed almost 74% (17-23) of his passes as opposed to Sanchez's 50% (12-24), the passer rating gods awarded him with with a passer rating almost 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN SANCHEZ'S.
In case this is too much to follow, the simple breakdown is that Sanchez averaged 7.2 yards per attempt on Monday Night Campbell averaged 6.3 yards per attempt. With only one throw dividing them, they both threw for a single TD and no picks. Yet Campbell registered a passer rating that was nearly 20 points higher than Sanchez.
So please rethink the logic of your statement that passer rating "doesn't favor completion percentages, if favors attempts and what is done with them". Sanchez got 27 more yards with his one extra attempt and the passer rating did him no favor!
I read it. Did you read mine?
How does a stat that supposedly favors completion percentage, as you stated, when by throwing an INC pass your rating goes up?
Yes, completions are a factor as is the percentage (obviously since comp factor in). But it is only one in 4 factors. Look at your stat lines, they are almost identical (20 yards is not that much in the scheme of the formula), except the # of completions. Thus Cambell gets the bump up on the QBR over Sanchez. It's only favoring completion percentage when you try to put identical numbers up with COMP being the only variable.
Look at this one from last week:
P. Manning 36/44 309 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT 109QBR
E. Manning 8/10 173 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT 158.3 QBR
Both guys completed 80%, but Eli's QBR is almost 50 points higher. So how is that favoring completion %?
It remains about attempts and what is done with them. Hence why ATT factors into all 4 factors in QBR, and COMP is only in 1.
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@shepwrite said:
Well put, Masters.*Thanks*
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Not a bad statistic, but three playoff QBs and the SB winner sat in the bottom quarter of the league last year.
2008 Passer rating leaders.
1 Philip Rivers, 105.5 (Won AFC West)
2 Chad Pennington, 97.4 (Won AFC East)
3 Kurt Warner, QB 96.9 (Wild Card Super Bowl)
4 Drew Brees, QB 96.2 (Missed playoffs)
5 Peyton Manning, 95.0 (Wild Card)
6 Aaron Rodgers, 93.4 (Missed Playoffs)
7 Matt Schaub, 92.7 (Missed Playoffs)
8 Tony Romo, 91.4 (Missed Playoffs)
9 Jeff Garcia, 90.2 (Missed Playoffs)
10 Matt Cassel, 89.4 (Missed Playoffs)
11 Matt Ryan, 87.7 (Wild Card)
12 Shaun Hill, 87.5 (Missed Playoffs)
13 Seneca Wallace, 87.0 (Missed Playoffs)
14 Eli Manning, 86.4 (Won NFC East)
15 Donovan McNabb, 86.4 (Wild card)
16 Jay Cutler, 86.0 (Missed Playoffs)
17 Trent Edwards, 85.4 (Missed Playoffs)
18 Jake Delhomme, 84.7 (Missed Playoffs)
19 Jason Campbell, 84.3 (Missed Playoffs)
20 David Garrard, 81.7 (Missed Playoffs)
21 Brett Favre, 81.0 (Missed Playoffs)
22 Joe Flacco, 80.3 (Wild card)
23 Kerry Collins, 80.2 (Won AFC South)
24 Big Gay Ben 80.1 (Won Superbowl)
25 Kyle Orton, 79.6 (missed Playoffs)
26 JaMarcus Russell, 77.1 (Rapelisberger-like)
Not a bad statistic, but three playoff QBs and the SB winner sat in the bottom quarter of the league last year.
2008 Passer rating leaders.
1 Philip Rivers, 105.5 (Won AFC West)
2 Chad Pennington, 97.4 (Won AFC East)
3 Kurt Warner, QB 96.9 (Wild Card Super Bowl)
4 Drew Brees, QB 96.2 (Missed playoffs)
5 Peyton Manning, 95.0 (Wild Card)
6 Aaron Rodgers, 93.4 (Missed Playoffs)
7 Matt Schaub, 92.7 (Missed Playoffs)
8 Tony Romo, 91.4 (Missed Playoffs)
9 Jeff Garcia, 90.2 (Missed Playoffs)
10 Matt Cassel, 89.4 (Missed Playoffs)
11 Matt Ryan, 87.7 (Wild Card)
12 Shaun Hill, 87.5 (Missed Playoffs)
13 Seneca Wallace, 87.0 (Missed Playoffs)
14 Eli Manning, 86.4 (Won NFC East)
15 Donovan McNabb, 86.4 (Wild card)
16 Jay Cutler, 86.0 (Missed Playoffs)
17 Trent Edwards, 85.4 (Missed Playoffs)
18 Jake Delhomme, 84.7 (Missed Playoffs)
19 Jason Campbell, 84.3 (Missed Playoffs)
20 David Garrard, 81.7 (Missed Playoffs)
21 Brett Favre, 81.0 (Missed Playoffs)
22 Joe Flacco, 80.3 (Wild card)
23 Kerry Collins, 80.2 (Won AFC South)
24 Big Gay Ben 80.1 (Won Superbowl)
25 Kyle Orton, 79.6 (missed Playoffs)
26 JaMarcus Russell, 77.1 (Rapelisberger-like)
uh.. Jake Delhomme and the Panthers won the NFC south last year.
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Six Super Bowls is the only stat.
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