The Pendulum swings the right direction
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GOP sweep: Big governor victories in Virginia, NJ
Republican Governor-elect Bob McDonnell waves to the crowd at his victory party in Richmond, Va., Tuesday,
By LIZ SIDOTI, AP National Political Writer Liz Sidoti, Ap National Political Writer
2 hrs 3 mins ago
WASHINGTON Independents who swept Barack Obama to a historic 2008 victory broke big for Republicans on Tuesday as the GOP wrested political control from Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey, a troubling sign for the president and his party heading into an important midterm election year.
Conservative Republican Bob McDonnell's victory in the Virginia governor's race over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds and moderate Republican Chris Christie's ouster of unpopular New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine was a double-barreled triumph for a party looking to rebuild after being booted from power in national elections in 2006 and 2008.
Elsewhere on Tuesday, Maine voters rejected a state law that would allow same-sex couples to wed. If supporters had prevailed, it would have marked the first time that the electorate in any state endorsed gay marriage.
And Democrat Bill Owens captured a GOP-held vacant 23rd Congressional District seat in New York in a race that highlighted fissures in the Republican Party and illustrated hurdles the GOP could face in capitalizing on any voter discontent with Obama and Democrats next fall.
California Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, also a Democrat, won a special election to a vacant congressional seat, Ohio voters approved casinos and a slew of cities selected mayors, including New York, which gave Michael Bloomberg a third term.
The outcomes of Virginia and New Jersey were sure to feed discussion about the state of the electorate, the status of the diverse coalition that sent Obama to the White House and the limits of the president's influence — on the party's base of support and on moderate current lawmakers he needs to advance his legislative priorities.
His signature issue of health care reform was dealt a blow hours before polls closed when Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid signaled that Congress may not complete health care legislation this year, missing Obama's deadline and pushing debate into a congressional election year. Democrats in swing-voting states and moderate-to-conservative districts may be less willing to back Obama on issues like health care after Virginia and New Jersey showed there are limits to how much he can protect his rank and file from fallout back home.
The president had personally campaigned for Deeds and Corzine, seeking to ensure that independents and base voters alike turned out even if he wasn't on the ballot — and voters still rejected them. Thus, the losses were blots on Obama's political standing to a certain degree and suggested potential problems ahead as he seeks to achieve his policy goals, protect Democratic majorities in Congress and expand his party's grip on governors' seats next fall.
Interviews with voters leaving polling stations in both states were filled with reasons for Democrats to be concerned and for Republicans to be optimistic, particularly about independents — the crown jewel of elections because they often determine outcomes.
Independents were a critical part Obama's victory in Virginia, New Jersey and across the country. But after more than a year of recession, they fled from Democrats in the two states, where the economy trumped all.
The Associated Press exit polls showed that nearly a third of voters in Virginia described themselves as independents, and nearly as many in New Jersey did. They preferred McDonnell by almost a 2-1 margin over Deeds in Virginia, and Christie over Corzine by a similar margin.
Last year, independents split between Obama and Republican John McCain in both states.
In Virginia, McDonnell won by big margins in rapidly growing, far-flung Washington, D.C., suburbs — places like Loudoun and Prince William counties — that Republicans historically have won but where Obama prevailed last fall by winning over independents and swing voters. Republicans swept all three statewide Virginia offices up for election: governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
"Bob McDonnell's victory gives Republicans tremendous momentum heading into 2010," declared Haley Barbour, chairman of the Republican Governors Association. "His focus on ideas and pocketbook issues will serve as a model for Republicans running next year."
Said Tim Kaine, the Democratic National Committee chairman and the term-limited Virginia governor: "We are disappointed."
In both states, the surveys also suggested the Democrats had difficulty turning out their base, including the large numbers of first-time minority and youth voters whom Obama attracted. The Virginia electorate was whiter in 2009 than it was in 2008, when blacks and Hispanics voted in droves to elect the country's first black president.
Democratic victories in both Virginia, a new swing state, and New Jersey, a Democratic stronghold, in 2005 preceded big Democratic years nationally in 2006 and 2008.
Tuesday's impact on Obama's popularity and on the 2010 elections could easily be overstated. Voters are often focused on local issues and local personalities.
Yet, national issues, like the recession, were clearly a factor, with voter attitudes shaped to some degree by how people feel about the state of their nation — and their place in it.
And, voter attitudes — particularly among independents — could bode ill for Democrats in moderate districts and in swing states like Ohio, Colorado and Nevada, should they remain unchanged when the party seeks to defend its turf next fall. In 2010, most governors, a third of the Senate and all members in the House will be on ballots.
It's also difficult to separate Obama from the outcomes after he devoted a significant chunk of time working to persuade voters to elect Deeds in Virginia and re-elect Corzine in New Jersey.
More than four in 10 voters in Virginia said their view of Obama factored into their choice on Tuesday, and those voters roughly split between expressing support and opposition for the president. People who said they disapprove of Obama's job performance voted overwhelmingly Republican, and those who approve of the president favored Deeds, the Democrat. The Obama factor was similar in New Jersey, though there were slightly more voters who said the president did not factor into their choice.
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I wouldn't make too much of two Governor's jobs going to the Republicans, and two House seats going to the Democrats, in an off-year election.
Should I get all excited about that New York House seat going Democratic for the first time in over 100 years? It's really not an indicator of anything. Except maybe that newt Gingrich was right, and local people generally know their issues and candidates better than Sarah Palin and Gary Bauer and Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh.
The same lesson was learned by Dems in Connecticut a few years ago.
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Rush yesterday:
"If Hoffman wins -- and polls suggest that he will -- the race there will be dismissed as an outlier...Folks, I want you to print these words out. I want you to get the transcript off my website. I want you to print these out, I want you to distribute them, I want you to carry them with you, and we'll just see how close I am to being right. (When Hoffman wins) the State-Run Media will say, "New York-23, the race is more about the demise of the Republican Party and anger on the right than Obama or his policies."
So what does it mean now that Hoffman lost? Do tell, Rush.
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Face it. Losing the VA and NJ races to republicans is telling Obama that his way of running things is not popular. He campaigned a lot in VA and the Gov still lost by quite a margin. I think you are in denial.
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That's not what the exit polls say. Obama is still largely popular in New Jersey, and still in positive territory in Virginia, and this is a lot more complicated than simply saying "people don't like Obama". You guys just like saying it. It doesn't make it true.
Voters everywhere are going to very anti-incumbent. They're very nervous about the economy. They don't like either party, and if you look at the polls Obama is more popular than Congressional Democrats by a long shot, and Democrats in Congress are even more popular than Republicans in Congress.
These are two solid wins for Republicans, and one embarrassing loss.
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Partisanship is gay.
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I wouldn't make too much of two Governor's jobs going to the Republicans, and two House seats going to the Democrats, in an off-year election.
Should I get all excited about that New York House seat going Democratic for the first time in over 100 years? It's really not an indicator of anything. Except maybe that newt Gingrich was right, and local people generally know their issues and candidates better than Sarah Palin and Gary Bauer and Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh.
The same lesson was learned by Dems in Connecticut a few years ago.
I wouldn't make too much of two Governor's jobs going to the Republicans, and two House seats going to the Democrats, in an off-year election.
Premature and irrational exuberance, if you ask me.
How many times have we seen Governors unable to 'deliver' their States for a Presidential candidate.
I'm glad to see some folks, apparently, rejecting spendthrift government. Better than the other way around, IMHO, but nothing to celebrate. Next year will be a better barometer because of the types of elections taking place and because current programs will have had more time to work (or not).
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I wouldn't make too much of two Governor's jobs going to the Republicans, and two House seats going to the Democrats, in an off-year election.
Premature and irrational exuberance, if you ask me.
How many times have we seen Governors unable to 'deliver' their States for a Presidential candidate.
I'm glad to see some folks, apparently, rejecting spendthrift government. Better than the other way around, IMHO, but nothing to celebrate. Next year will be a better barometer because of the types of elections taking place and because current programs will have had more time to work (or not).
Premature and irrational exuberance, if you ask me.
How many times have we seen Governors unable to 'deliver' their States for a Presidential candidate.
I'm glad to see some folks, apparently, rejecting spendthrift government. Better than the other way around, IMHO, but nothing to celebrate. Next year will be a better barometer because of the types of elections taking place and because current programs will have had more time to work (or not).
I agree that next years elections have much more meaning. But following the idolizing by some of Obama, and declaration of death of the Republican Party by Shep and a few others, it seems the republicans are still quite alive.
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The Gov wins in those states by Republicans sends a message.
The exit polls showed that most folks said their vote wasn't a rejection of Obama.
They just were concerned about the economy, and the direction the country is going in.
Which, is about what is being done and tried/planned.... by Pelosi, Reid, etc the rest of their leftist ilk...
and the Obama admin.
If the Dems had won those governorships, well, we'd see "mandate for Obama" all over the
liberal media.
But to lose? Of course the left will minimize it as meaningless.
John is right, though - next year, the elections will be far more dramatic is meaning.
If anything, Obama's extensive work to show up to help in Virginia failed miserably. That is a rejection of Obama's help to the Dem
in Virginia.
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Trying to extrapolate any kind of national trends from these three elections is quite frankly Retarded as hell.
That being said, the Democrats are going to lose seats in 2010 (it nearly always happens at midterm elections), but treating this as some kind of referendum on Obama is pushing it a little bit too far. I'm sure the cable networks are trying to play that angle right now, however. Then again, I don't really watch that crap.
EDIT: Even if somehow the cable pundits are right and the people who actually study this shit (political scientists, etc.) are wrong, long-term demographic changes simply do not favor the Republicans. Unless ya'll adopt a more reasonable position towards minorities and immigrants the party is pretty much doomed in the long term. Old rich white guys are simply a rapidly shrinking portion of the population, you can't rely on them to win elections forever.
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Trying to extrapolate any kind of national trends from these three elections is quite frankly Retarded as hell.
That being said, the Democrats are going to lose seats in 2010 (it nearly always happens at midterm elections), but treating this as some kind of referendum on Obama is pushing it a little bit too far. I'm sure the cable networks are trying to play that angle right now, however. Then again, I don't really watch that crap.
EDIT: Even if somehow the cable pundits are right and the people who actually study this shit (political scientists, etc.) are wrong, long-term demographic changes simply do not favor the Republicans. Unless ya'll adopt a more reasonable position towards minorities and immigrants the party is pretty much doomed in the long term. Old rich white guys are simply a rapidly shrinking portion of the population, you can't rely on them to win elections forever.
shit said:
Trying to extrapolate any kind of national trends from these three elections is quite frankly Retarded as hell.That being said, the Democrats are going to lose seats in 2010 (it nearly always happens at midterm elections), but treating this as some kind of referendum on Obama is pushing it a little bit too far. I'm sure the cable networks are trying to play that angle right now, however. Then again, I don't really watch that crap.
EDIT: Even if somehow the cable pundits are right and the people who actually study this shit (political scientists, etc.) are wrong, long-term demographic changes simply do not favor the Republicans. Unless ya'll adopt a more reasonable position towards minorities and immigrants the party is pretty much doomed in the long term. Old rich white guys are simply a rapidly shrinking portion of the population, you can't rely on them to win elections forever.
Thanks mz the pussy, err, I mean SHIT. And by the way, the young white guys all turn into old white guys eventually.
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I wouldn't make too much of two Governor's jobs going to the Republicans, and two House seats going to the Democrats, in an off-year election.
Should I get all excited about that New York House seat going Democratic for the first time in over 100 years? It's really not an indicator of anything. Except maybe that newt Gingrich was right, and local people generally know their issues and candidates better than Sarah Palin and Gary Bauer and Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh.
The same lesson was learned by Dems in Connecticut a few years ago.
I wouldn't make too much of two Governor's jobs going to the Republicans, and two House seats going to the Democrats, in an off-year election.
Should I get all excited about that New York House seat going Democratic for the first time in over 100 years? It's really not an indicator of anything. Except maybe that newt Gingrich was right, and local people generally know their issues and candidates better than Sarah Palin and Gary Bauer and Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh.
The same lesson was learned by Dems in Connecticut a few years ago.
Kinda right on the first two counts but I think people just get antsy and look for some issue to get worked up over.
Congressional check kiting scandal comes to mind.
WSS
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Congressional check kiting scandal comes to mind.
WSS
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I wish I had time to read more.
Never heard of the congressional check kiting scandal. My bad. Steve is the man.
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