Modus Operandi
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As much as I love the NFL draft, I have to admit that I grow weary of the numerous mock drafts and opinions as to why 'x' team will take 'y' player and how it's a "can't miss". Last year, the Browns were supposed to take Brian Orakpo or Aaron Curry. The point is that all of these prognosticators are missing a few points:
1) Trades up and down. This is going to happen. You can't pinpoint it exactly because so many factors go into it. People who are brave enough to speculate about a trade have no clue what the issues being discussed between the clubs are. Trading out of a pick requires a partner who wants to trade in. Players have to be available that someone wants to trade in for. That's not always easy. You don't know if existing veterans or other picks are involved and it isn't always a "body for a body" trade.
2) Background information- We don't REALLY know what happened with Michael Crabtree last year but there were many red flags that we probably don't know the details of.
3) Private workouts- They're private, right?
4) Frequent assumptions . We seem to think that the team will fill it's "biggest" need or take the "sexiest" pick in the first round. If there's a big drop off after Bradford and Clausen...then we may not take a guy in the second. We might stay true to the board and take a QB in the 3rd.
Ultimately, we don't know who ranks above whom on the Browns' board. Does Joe Haden rate above Kyle Wilson? If not, why would we "definitely" take Haden?
I don't know that the power structure in the War Room will be the same on every pick. Perhaps if they take Mangini's pick in round one, Heckert might get a little more weight in round two. Perhaps, Holmgren is the last word throughout. We don't know.
Looking back at each of the three main men in the draft room this year, I would offer the following observations on each man's history with the draft.
Mike Holmgren-- Mike Holmgren doesn't use 1st round picks on QBs. With the Seahawks, he never took one earlier than round 3. If that's the case, don't think Clausen, Tebow or McCoy. Think Pike, LeFevour or Skelton.
Eric Mangini-- Likes to trade down and move around. Twice moved back into the bottom of the first round to pick up players with the Jets (C Mangold and TE Dustin Keller). Moved up to get Darelle Revis. His sweet spot in the personnel department seems to be DBs. If that's the case, don't think Joe Haden. Think trade down, take Sergio Kindle and trade back in to take Devin McCourty or Kyle Wilson.
Tom Heckert-- A look at his draft record shows a fair amount of moving around to get targeted players. He'll move around in later rounds and apparently has a very good track record with undrafted free agents. Is a proactive thinker...so perhaps there's already a trade in place. If that's the case, think the Mangini scenario above but consider a trade in place (Gocong?) and a chance to pick up something besides a OLB and CB.
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Kindle's past DUI/crashing into apartment buildings issues make him an unlikely pick, even if the Browns appear to be showing interest in him.
Kindle's past DUI/crashing into apartment buildings issues make him an unlikely pick, even if the Browns appear to be showing interest in him.
Generally, I agree. However, there isn't some long list of transgressions this guy has had and I think that how you answer the question on the interview might be persuasive in one's favor. Derrick Morgan would be a good choice too.
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As much as I love the NFL draft, I have to admit that I grow weary of the numerous mock drafts and opinions as to why 'x' team will take 'y' player and how it's a "can't miss". Last year, the Browns were supposed to take Brian Orakpo or Aaron Curry. The point is that all of these prognosticators are missing a few points:
1) Trades up and down. This is going to happen. You can't pinpoint it exactly because so many factors go into it. People who are brave enough to speculate about a trade have no clue what the issues being discussed between the clubs are. Trading out of a pick requires a partner who wants to trade in. Players have to be available that someone wants to trade in for. That's not always easy. You don't know if existing veterans or other picks are involved and it isn't always a "body for a body" trade.
2) Background information- We don't REALLY know what happened with Michael Crabtree last year but there were many red flags that we probably don't know the details of.
3) Private workouts- They're private, right?
4) Frequent assumptions . We seem to think that the team will fill it's "biggest" need or take the "sexiest" pick in the first round. If there's a big drop off after Bradford and Clausen...then we may not take a guy in the second. We might stay true to the board and take a QB in the 3rd.
Ultimately, we don't know who ranks above whom on the Browns' board. Does Joe Haden rate above Kyle Wilson? If not, why would we "definitely" take Haden?
I don't know that the power structure in the War Room will be the same on every pick. Perhaps if they take Mangini's pick in round one, Heckert might get a little more weight in round two. Perhaps, Holmgren is the last word throughout. We don't know.
Looking back at each of the three main men in the draft room this year, I would offer the following observations on each man's history with the draft.
Mike Holmgren-- Mike Holmgren doesn't use 1st round picks on QBs. With the Seahawks, he never took one earlier than round 3. If that's the case, don't think Clausen, Tebow or McCoy. Think Pike, LeFevour or Skelton.
Eric Mangini-- Likes to trade down and move around. Twice moved back into the bottom of the first round to pick up players with the Jets (C Mangold and TE Dustin Keller). Moved up to get Darelle Revis. His sweet spot in the personnel department seems to be DBs. If that's the case, don't think Joe Haden. Think trade down, take Sergio Kindle and trade back in to take Devin McCourty or Kyle Wilson.
Tom Heckert-- A look at his draft record shows a fair amount of moving around to get targeted players. He'll move around in later rounds and apparently has a very good track record with undrafted free agents. Is a proactive thinker...so perhaps there's already a trade in place. If that's the case, think the Mangini scenario above but consider a trade in place (Gocong?) and a chance to pick up something besides a OLB and CB.
Mike Holmgren-- Mike Holmgren doesn't use 1st round picks on QBs. With the Seahawks, he never took one earlier than round 3. If that's the case, don't think Clausen, Tebow or McCoy. Think Pike, LeFevour or Skelton.
I agree with almost all that you said except for part of this clause.
Some have Tebow still going in the 3rd. If that's the case, he's the Browns pick at 71.
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Given Holmgren's remarks regarding the Wimbley trade, basically saying that we will see how that pans out, I am CONVINCED a trade has been agreed upon....this will be very interesting. I can't remember being more interested in the draft than I am this year.
It's gonna be fun!
Mike
IN DORSEY I TRUST -
great post Earl34..They'll be a lot of moving around..its going to be a great day for Browns fans with all these picks and maneuvering that the 3 amigos are sure to make
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Given Holmgren's remarks regarding the Wimbley trade, basically saying that we will see how that pans out, I am CONVINCED a trade has been agreed upon....this will be very interesting. I can't remember being more interested in the draft than I am this year.
It's gonna be fun!
Mike
Given Holmgren's remarks regarding the Wimbley trade, basically saying that we will see how that pans out, I am CONVINCED a trade has been agreed upon....this will be very interesting. I can't remember being more interested in the draft than I am this year.
It's gonna be fun!
Mike
I agree. I think we trade back and take Pierre-Paul.
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Holmgren doesn't take qbs in the second but Heckert does.
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Mike Holmgren-- Mike Holmgren doesn't use 1st round picks on QBs. With the Seahawks, he never took one earlier than round 3. If that's the case, don't think Clausen, Tebow or McCoy. Think Pike, LeFevour or Skelton.
I agree with almost all that you said except for part of this clause.
Some have Tebow still going in the 3rd. If that's the case, he's the Browns pick at 71.
I agree with almost all that you said except for part of this clause.
Some have Tebow still going in the 3rd. If that's the case, he's the Browns pick at 71.
Just my opinion here, I don't think Tebow will be there in the 3rd. With the amount of hype or whatever word you care to use around him, someone will reach for him in the second.
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I agree with almost all that you said except for part of this clause.
Some have Tebow still going in the 3rd. If that's the case, he's the Browns pick at 71.
Just my opinion here, I don't think Tebow will be there in the 3rd. With the amount of hype or whatever word you care to use around him, someone will reach for him in the second.
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