Third Round QBs
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Compare the third round list to the first round list. Here are all the first round QBs drafted since 1995:
Matt Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Jamarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Vince Young
Matt Leinert
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Eli Manning
Phillip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J.P. Losman
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Michael Vick
Chad Pennington
Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb
Akili Smith
Daunte Culpepper
Cade McNown
Payton Manning
Ryan Leaf
Jim Druckenmiller
Steve McNair
Kerry Collins
Needless to say, numerous star QBs, but also some famous busts.
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Who knows how he will turn out, but I do know that he will actually have some time to develope and probably be a pretty good QB. He is deadly accurate and has a strong but not amazing arm, but he is mobile. He will be a replica of Steve Young I bet, and thats what Big Mike seen in him.
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OK then, let's look at the Second round of the draft. Here are all QBs drafted in the second round between 1995 and 2009:
Pat White
Brian Brohm
Chad Henne
Kevin Kolb
John Beck
Drew Stanton
Kellen Clemens
Tavaris Jackson
Drew Brees
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasosopo
Shaun King
Charlie Batch
Jake Plummer
Tony Banks
Todd Collins
Kordell Stewart
Only one sure fire star here: Brees. A few others had mediocre success. Stewart, Plummer. A couple will be given a chance to prove themselves: Henne, Kolb. A pretty mixed bag all in all.
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1. First round quarterbacks are guaranteed more development, based on the desire to recoup the initial investment.
2. Most of the quarterbacks drafted in earlier rounds were better at the position IN COLLEGE than quarterbacks drafted in later rounds. Colt McCoy is one of the few stud college QBs whose draft stock slid. He's better than most other quarterbacks that wound up being third round picks.
3. This type of analysis can only show correlation; we need to understand what causes quarterbacks to be successful vs. busts. Even the best draft scouts can't do this reliably, which is why you see guys like Tom Brady become so successful, and guys like Ryan Leaf fail.
Bottom line? No idea if Colt will be successful, but it certainly could be argued that he has a much bigger chance than most of the other 3rd round picks on the list.
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I won't bother to list all the QBs that were drafted in rounds 4-7 in this 15 year period. Half of them never actually eve played in the NFL. Only the following ever accomplished the task of throwing for as much as 5000 yards in their careers:
Danny Kannell
Rob Johnson
Matt Cassell
Derek Anderson
David Garrard
Aaron Brooks
Marc Bulger
Kyle Orton
Matt Hasselback (second with over 26,000 career yards)
Tom Brady (over 30,000 career yards, and, oh yeah, 3 NFL titles)
(Seneca Wallace was drafted here but has only thrown for about 3500 yards so far in his career)
Clearly one superstar and a few other serviceable players. But that is it for all those years.
The moral of the story may be that, overall, you oughtta get your QB in the first round.
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1. First round quarterbacks are guaranteed more development, based on the desire to recoup the initial investment.
2. Most of the quarterbacks drafted in earlier rounds were better at the position IN COLLEGE than quarterbacks drafted in later rounds. Colt McCoy is one of the few stud college QBs whose draft stock slid. He's better than most other quarterbacks that wound up being third round picks.
3. This type of analysis can only show correlation; we need to understand what causes quarterbacks to be successful vs. busts. Even the best draft scouts can't do this reliably, which is why you see guys like Tom Brady become so successful, and guys like Ryan Leaf fail.
Bottom line? No idea if Colt will be successful, but it certainly could be argued that he has a much bigger chance than most of the other 3rd round picks on the list.
1. First round quarterbacks are guaranteed more development, based on the desire to recoup the initial investment.
2. Most of the quarterbacks drafted in earlier rounds were better at the position IN COLLEGE than quarterbacks drafted in later rounds. Colt McCoy is one of the few stud college QBs whose draft stock slid. He's better than most other quarterbacks that wound up being third round picks.
3. This type of analysis can only show correlation; we need to understand what causes quarterbacks to be successful vs. busts. Even the best draft scouts can't do this reliably, which is why you see guys like Tom Brady become so successful, and guys like Ryan Leaf fail.
Bottom line? No idea if Colt will be successful, but it certainly could be argued that he has a much bigger chance than most of the other 3rd round picks on the list.
I agree. This would need far more analysis. This is merely raw data that I have given, which may show certain trends.
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1. First round quarterbacks are guaranteed more development, based on the desire to recoup the initial investment.
2. Most of the quarterbacks drafted in earlier rounds were better at the position IN COLLEGE than quarterbacks drafted in later rounds. Colt McCoy is one of the few stud college QBs whose draft stock slid. He's better than most other quarterbacks that wound up being third round picks.
3. This type of analysis can only show correlation; we need to understand what causes quarterbacks to be successful vs. busts. Even the best draft scouts can't do this reliably, which is why you see guys like Tom Brady become so successful, and guys like Ryan Leaf fail.
Bottom line? No idea if Colt will be successful, but it certainly could be argued that he has a much bigger chance than most of the other 3rd round picks on the list.
I agree. This would need far more analysis. This is merely raw data that I have given, which may show certain trends.
I agree. This would need far more analysis. This is merely raw data that I have given, which may show certain trends.
It would be interesting to ask top NFL offensive coordinators what they believed the three most important skills and talents for quarterbacks to have, and the three most difficult weaknesses to overcome.
I think the fact that first round QBs get the most reps, development time, and attention attributes to their success a lot. Sam Bradford was not as "prepared" to play the pro game as Colt McCoy.. much less experienced. Didn't have to read the defense himself as much. But he's getting fast tracked.
I'd say the amount of development attention he's allegedly getting clearly demonstrates that he's going to get a shot to lead the franchise. It just doesn't sound like he's being groomed to be a lifetime backup; I'm sure many of the other third round QBs were.
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1. First round quarterbacks are guaranteed more development, based on the desire to recoup the initial investment.
2. Most of the quarterbacks drafted in earlier rounds were better at the position IN COLLEGE than quarterbacks drafted in later rounds. Colt McCoy is one of the few stud college QBs whose draft stock slid. He's better than most other quarterbacks that wound up being third round picks.
3. This type of analysis can only show correlation; we need to understand what causes quarterbacks to be successful vs. busts. Even the best draft scouts can't do this reliably, which is why you see guys like Tom Brady become so successful, and guys like Ryan Leaf fail.
Bottom line? No idea if Colt will be successful, but it certainly could be argued that he has a much bigger chance than most of the other 3rd round picks on the list.
3. This type of analysis can only show correlation; we need to understand what causes quarterbacks to be successful vs. busts. Even the best draft scouts can't do this reliably, which is why you see guys like Tom Brady become so successful, and guys like Ryan Leaf fail.
I personally think there are a couple reasons for why a QB who was successful in college may be a bust in the NFL.
First, though, lets throw out the obvious reasons. The reasons why several of the Heisman QB's and National Championship QB's can't seem to make it. They are products of their college system, and have no real QB mentality or skills.
So lets take a QB that by all scouting reports have NFL calibre mentalities and skills.
1) They are drafted simply because they are good, but put into an offense that doesn't fit their particular personality or style. This actually seems to happen more with other positions than QB, but lets say that Atlanta decided Vick shouldn't run at all and be just a drop back passer. Things like this have, and will continue to happen.
2) They are thrown out to the wolves too soon. They aren't ready, and so lose confidence. Once the confidence to make the right decision is lost, they think too much, and become slow, or start panicking and making worse decisions. This happens quite often. The reason a QB is drafted and thrown right into the mix is often because the team sucks and needs them. A few success stories come out of this, but they are usually from a time when QB's were given more time to develop. One or two (or in the case of Bradshaw four) crap seasons didn't lose them the job automatically. Today, one or two crap games could lose them the job.
3) The talent around them isn't strong enough to help them out. Now if you have a good young core, that doesn't play well together yet, because they are young, then this isn't as much of a problem. Aikman and Elway are prime examples of this. They had terrible first seasons, then started doing well as the team started to gel and they started to learn the game.
The best case scenario, is the Montana/Young thing, or Favre/Rogers, or bringing Favre/Hasselbeck in with a strong team to help them out while they are still learning the game. Hell, I believe that the old LA Rams (yes the ones that won their super bowl) had two QB's that actually platooned throughout the season. Norm Van Brocklin was one, and I can't remember the other.
Couch, I am convinced, would have been a good QB given different circumstances.
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On another thread it was stated that we shouldn't get our hopes up over a QB drafted in the third round. I pointed out that the likes of Joe Montana, Dan Fouts and Fran Tarkenton were third round choices. Well, let's see what the 3rd round QB choices have looked like in the last, say 15 years. Here is the list of all the QBs chosen in the third round of the NFL draft between 1995 and 2009. Let us know how you think they have fared:
Eric Zeier, Cleveland
Stoney Case, Ariz.
Bobby Hoying, Phil.
Brian Griese, Denver
Jonathan Quinn, Jax.
Brock Huard Seattle
Chris Redman, Baltimore
Giovanni Carmazzi, SF
Josh McCown, Ariz.
Chris Simms, Tampa
Dave Ragone, Hou.
Matt Schaub, Atl.
David Green, Sea
Andrew Walter, Oak
Charlie Frye, Cle
Brody Croyle, KC
Charlie Whitehurst, SD
Trent Edwards, Buff.
Kevin O'Connell NE
I'll be honest with you, I don't see a star QB in that entire bunch. About the only one that might reach that status is Schaub. Griese was OK for a bit, but fell back.
Showing this list doesn't make one optimistic about McCoy. But, who knows. Lightning might strike.
On another thread it was stated that we shouldn't get our hopes up over a QB drafted in the third round. I pointed out that the likes of Joe Montana, Dan Fouts and Fran Tarkenton were third round choices. Well, let's see what the 3rd round QB choices have looked like in the last, say 15 years. Here is the list of all the QBs chosen in the third round of the NFL draft between 1995 and 2009. Let us know how you think they have fared:
Eric Zeier, Cleveland
Stoney Case, Ariz.
Bobby Hoying, Phil.
Brian Griese, Denver
Jonathan Quinn, Jax.
Brock Huard Seattle
Chris Redman, Baltimore
Giovanni Carmazzi, SF
Josh McCown, Ariz.
Chris Simms, Tampa
Dave Ragone, Hou.
Matt Schaub, Atl.
David Green, Sea
Andrew Walter, Oak
Charlie Frye, Cle
Brody Croyle, KC
Charlie Whitehurst, SD
Trent Edwards, Buff.
Kevin O'Connell NE
I'll be honest with you, I don't see a star QB in that entire bunch. About the only one that might reach that status is Schaub. Griese was OK for a bit, but fell back.
Showing this list doesn't make one optimistic about McCoy. But, who knows. Lightning might strike.
I know we have been through this before some time back.....take Tarkenton as an example....his draft slot when he was drafted(not going to look up the exacts) would have made him a late first rounder today when taking in to account the number of teams drafting players....maybe a 12 team league v a 32 team league.
But I agree...lightening can strike twice, so lets see how it works out.
I will say that if things go sour this year and we have a shot at a top QB next year, I wouldn't let Colt sway my opinion and keep from drafting him.
So what if you end up with 2 good QBs....QB's always draw a premium in a trade.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. -
Here's the top 5 QB's with most wins in NCAA career.
45--Colt McCoy--Texas
42--David Greene--Georgia
39--Peyton Manning--Tennessee
38--Ken Dorsey--Miami (Fla)
37--Dan Marino--Pittsburgh
Two of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the NFL are on that list, hopefully he can make it 3
1st Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU 3rd Darius Slay, CB, Mississippi State4th Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma5th Earl Wolff, S, N.C. State6th Lucas Reed, TE, New Mexico -
On another thread it was stated that we shouldn't get our hopes up over a QB drafted in the third round. I pointed out that the likes of Joe Montana, Dan Fouts and Fran Tarkenton were third round choices. Well, let's see what the 3rd round QB choices have looked like in the last, say 15 years. Here is the list of all the QBs chosen in the third round of the NFL draft between 1995 and 2009. Let us know how you think they have fared:
Eric Zeier, Cleveland
Stoney Case, Ariz.
Bobby Hoying, Phil.
Brian Griese, Denver
Jonathan Quinn, Jax.
Brock Huard Seattle
Chris Redman, Baltimore
Giovanni Carmazzi, SF
Josh McCown, Ariz.
Chris Simms, Tampa
Dave Ragone, Hou.
Matt Schaub, Atl.
David Green, Sea
Andrew Walter, Oak
Charlie Frye, Cle
Brody Croyle, KC
Charlie Whitehurst, SD
Trent Edwards, Buff.
Kevin O'Connell NE
I'll be honest with you, I don't see a star QB in that entire bunch. About the only one that might reach that status is Schaub. Griese was OK for a bit, but fell back.
Showing this list doesn't make one optimistic about McCoy. But, who knows. Lightning might strike.
I know we have been through this before some time back.....take Tarkenton as an example....his draft slot when he was drafted(not going to look up the exacts) would have made him a late first rounder today when taking in to account the number of teams drafting players....maybe a 12 team league v a 32 team league.
But I agree...lightening can strike twice, so lets see how it works out.
I will say that if things go sour this year and we have a shot at a top QB next year, I wouldn't let Colt sway my opinion and keep from drafting him.
So what if you end up with 2 good QBs....QB's always draw a premium in a trade.
I know we have been through this before some time back.....take Tarkenton as an example....his draft slot when he was drafted(not going to look up the exacts) would have made him a late first rounder today when taking in to account the number of teams drafting players....maybe a 12 team league v a 32 team league.
But I agree...lightening can strike twice, so lets see how it works out.
I will say that if things go sour this year and we have a shot at a top QB next year, I wouldn't let Colt sway my opinion and keep from drafting him.
So what if you end up with 2 good QBs....QB's always draw a premium in a trade.
The NFL expanded to 14 teams in 1961 (the Vikings were one of those expansion teams). But the AFL also had 8 teams that year. So there were 22 teams vying for players.
Certainly not 32 teams, but still, the change isn't as drastic as you made it out to be.
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On another thread it was stated that we shouldn't get our hopes up over a QB drafted in the third round. I pointed out that the likes of Joe Montana, Dan Fouts and Fran Tarkenton were third round choices. Well, let's see what the 3rd round QB choices have looked like in the last, say 15 years. Here is the list of all the QBs chosen in the third round of the NFL draft between 1995 and 2009. Let us know how you think they have fared:
Eric Zeier, Cleveland
Stoney Case, Ariz.
Bobby Hoying, Phil.
Brian Griese, Denver
Jonathan Quinn, Jax.
Brock Huard Seattle
Chris Redman, Baltimore
Giovanni Carmazzi, SF
Josh McCown, Ariz.
Chris Simms, Tampa
Dave Ragone, Hou.
Matt Schaub, Atl.
David Green, Sea
Andrew Walter, Oak
Charlie Frye, Cle
Brody Croyle, KC
Charlie Whitehurst, SD
Trent Edwards, Buff.
Kevin O'Connell NE
I'll be honest with you, I don't see a star QB in that entire bunch. About the only one that might reach that status is Schaub. Griese was OK for a bit, but fell back.
Showing this list doesn't make one optimistic about McCoy. But, who knows. Lightning might strike.
On another thread it was stated that we shouldn't get our hopes up over a QB drafted in the third round. I pointed out that the likes of Joe Montana, Dan Fouts and Fran Tarkenton were third round choices. Well, let's see what the 3rd round QB choices have looked like in the last, say 15 years. Here is the list of all the QBs chosen in the third round of the NFL draft between 1995 and 2009. Let us know how you think they have fared:
Eric Zeier, Cleveland
Stoney Case, Ariz.
Bobby Hoying, Phil.
Brian Griese, Denver
Jonathan Quinn, Jax.
Brock Huard Seattle
Chris Redman, Baltimore
Giovanni Carmazzi, SF
Josh McCown, Ariz.
Chris Simms, Tampa
Dave Ragone, Hou.
Matt Schaub, Atl.
David Green, Sea
Andrew Walter, Oak
Charlie Frye, Cle
Brody Croyle, KC
Charlie Whitehurst, SD
Trent Edwards, Buff.
Kevin O'Connell NE
I'll be honest with you, I don't see a star QB in that entire bunch. About the only one that might reach that status is Schaub. Griese was OK for a bit, but fell back.
Showing this list doesn't make one optimistic about McCoy. But, who knows. Lightning might strike.
What is the point since about 20 first round QB's won the Bowl so far..........????????????????????
Offense Wins.......Franchise QB's are the key.............Defense keeps you in the game.........Go Buckeyes -
I know we have been through this before some time back.....take Tarkenton as an example....his draft slot when he was drafted(not going to look up the exacts) would have made him a late first rounder today when taking in to account the number of teams drafting players....maybe a 12 team league v a 32 team league.
But I agree...lightening can strike twice, so lets see how it works out.
I will say that if things go sour this year and we have a shot at a top QB next year, I wouldn't let Colt sway my opinion and keep from drafting him.
So what if you end up with 2 good QBs....QB's always draw a premium in a trade.
The NFL expanded to 14 teams in 1961 (the Vikings were one of those expansion teams). But the AFL also had 8 teams that year. So there were 22 teams vying for players.
Certainly not 32 teams, but still, the change isn't as drastic as you made it out to be.
The NFL expanded to 14 teams in 1961 (the Vikings were one of those expansion teams). But the AFL also had 8 teams that year. So there were 22 teams vying for players.
Certainly not 32 teams, but still, the change isn't as drastic as you made it out to be.
Like I said....i wan't going to go back and look it up.....but, ok, I will
Oops....here ya go...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_NFL_Draft
Seems Fran was the 29th player selected.....you do the math
So....lets see....hmmmm....29th player selected.....I am not the best at math but I think that puts him in the first round in todays NFL.
yep.....32 teams is more than 29 every time I count.
If i am wrong, let me know.
Yep, the AFL draft started in 1960, but really, that isn't germane to the discussion, so what's your point??? Tell me in detail how that relates to the discussion???
It doesn't, so don't even try.
Thanks
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The NFL expanded to 14 teams in 1961 (the Vikings were one of those expansion teams). But the AFL also had 8 teams that year. So there were 22 teams vying for players.
Certainly not 32 teams, but still, the change isn't as drastic as you made it out to be.
Like I said....i wan't going to go back and look it up.....but, ok, I will
Oops....here ya go...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_NFL_Draft
Seems Fran was the 29th player selected.....you do the math
So....lets see....hmmmm....29th player selected.....I am not the best at math but I think that puts him in the first round in todays NFL.
yep.....32 teams is more than 29 every time I count.
If i am wrong, let me know.
Yep, the AFL draft started in 1960, but really, that isn't germane to the discussion, so what's your point??? Tell me in detail how that relates to the discussion???
It doesn't, so don't even try.
Thanks
Like I said....i wan't going to go back and look it up.....but, ok, I will
Oops....here ya go...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_NFL_Draft
Seems Fran was the 29th player selected.....you do the math
So....lets see....hmmmm....29th player selected.....I am not the best at math but I think that puts him in the first round in todays NFL.
yep.....32 teams is more than 29 every time I count.
If i am wrong, let me know.
Yep, the AFL draft started in 1960, but really, that isn't germane to the discussion, so what's your point??? Tell me in detail how that relates to the discussion???
It doesn't, so don't even try.
Thanks
The AFL is germane to the discussion. Its 8 additional teams that take players. Sure, originally they may not have had a deal with the NFL over how to coordinate drafts (not sure they ever really did). But considering the AFL did well in the initial super bowls, they were getting valid talent that wasn't going to the NFL.
Therefore, those 8 teams matter when discussing who went where and how many were chosen in a given year.
And remember, 29th pick overall was a 2nd round draft pick prior to the Panthers and Jaguars.
Granted, times have changed, and QB's go top 10 overall now, simply because it is hard to find 32 bonafide starters every year. There are always teams, every year, that are starving for a QB.
If every team had at least a decent QB, then half these drafts since 1996 that had 1st and 2nd round QB's would have had zero QB's drafted prior to round 3.
Now stop being a butthead in the way you respond to me.
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it still doesn't make sense, but Ok, it won't be a butthead.
The fact still remains he was the 29th player selected and there are 32 teams in the league today....and have been for more than a few years, but it is far from "the change isn't as drastic as you made it out to be".
It is what it is
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in a game like the NFL, past statistics have no bearing on the future. These aren't scientific laws as some people like to make them out to be.
For instance, the Cleveland Browns have never won the AFC north. does that mean they never will?
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Note to Thaak. The LA Rams did use a platoon QB system with Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield. And, FYI, both were inducted into the PFHOF!
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On another thread it was stated that we shouldn't get our hopes up over a QB drafted in the third round. I pointed out that the likes of Joe Montana, Dan Fouts and Fran Tarkenton were third round choices. Well, let's see what the 3rd round QB choices have looked like in the last, say 15 years. Here is the list of all the QBs chosen in the third round of the NFL draft between 1995 and 2009. Let us know how you think they have fared:
Eric Zeier, Cleveland
Stoney Case, Ariz.
Bobby Hoying, Phil.
Brian Griese, Denver
Jonathan Quinn, Jax.
Brock Huard Seattle
Chris Redman, Baltimore
Giovanni Carmazzi, SF
Josh McCown, Ariz.
Chris Simms, Tampa
Dave Ragone, Hou.
Matt Schaub, Atl.
David Green, Sea
Andrew Walter, Oak
Charlie Frye, Cle
Brody Croyle, KC
Charlie Whitehurst, SD
Trent Edwards, Buff.
Kevin O'Connell NE
I'll be honest with you, I don't see a star QB in that entire bunch. About the only one that might reach that status is Schaub. Griese was OK for a bit, but fell back.
Showing this list doesn't make one optimistic about McCoy. But, who knows. Lightning might strike.
I know we have been through this before some time back.....take Tarkenton as an example....his draft slot when he was drafted(not going to look up the exacts) would have made him a late first rounder today when taking in to account the number of teams drafting players....maybe a 12 team league v a 32 team league.
But I agree...lightening can strike twice, so lets see how it works out.
I will say that if things go sour this year and we have a shot at a top QB next year, I wouldn't let Colt sway my opinion and keep from drafting him.
So what if you end up with 2 good QBs....QB's always draw a premium in a trade.
I know we have been through this before some time back.....take Tarkenton as an example....his draft slot when he was drafted(not going to look up the exacts) would have made him a late first rounder today when taking in to account the number of teams drafting players....maybe a 12 team league v a 32 team league.
But I agree...lightening can strike twice, so lets see how it works out.
I will say that if things go sour this year and we have a shot at a top QB next year, I wouldn't let Colt sway my opinion and keep from drafting him.
So what if you end up with 2 good QBs....QB's always draw a premium in a trade.
Peen, one of the reasons I only went back to 1995 was because of the situation you describe: the expanded number of teams drafting. Though I think in Tarkenton's case he would have been a mid to early second rounder today given his draft position.
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Here's the top 5 QB's with most wins in NCAA career.
45--Colt McCoy--Texas
42--David Greene--Georgia
39--Peyton Manning--Tennessee
38--Ken Dorsey--Miami (Fla)
37--Dan Marino--Pittsburgh
Two of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the NFL are on that list, hopefully he can make it 3
nmills said:
Here's the top 5 QB's with most wins in NCAA career.45--Colt McCoy--Texas
42--David Greene--Georgia
39--Peyton Manning--Tennessee
38--Ken Dorsey--Miami (Fla)
37--Dan Marino--Pittsburgh
Two of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the NFL are on that list, hopefully he can make it 3
Of course those numbers can be skewed by the fact that more games are being played now by colleges.
Whatever happened to David Greene? He may have been no better than Cornelius Greene.
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