Browns will pick 6th
-
Although there are still 3 weeks left in the season...the Browns are all but locked into the 8th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.
Currently, the first 6 picks are pretty much locked by teams with 2 or fewer wins. None of these teams have a chance of winning 2 more over the last weeks...so no need to look at their schedules.
As for the picks over 12th...those teams have 6 or more wins...and there is no way the Browns win 2 out of 3 vs Pittsburgh/Cincinnati/Philadelphia (we will be lucky to win 1).
So that leaves us in contention with the following teams:
Green Bay 5-8
San Diego 5-8
San Francisco 5-8
Cleveland 4-9
Jacksonville 4-9
Oakland 3-10
If you assume wins over lesser opponents....and losses to teams with better records, these teams will finish with the following records (strength of schedule in parentheses):
Green Bay 7-9 (106)
San Diego 6-10 (108)
San Francisco 6-10 (94)
Cleveland 5-11 (118)
Jacksonville 4-12 (110)
Oakland 3-13 (108)
As strength of schedule is the ONLY tie-breaker (before a coin toss) in draft selection...the ONLY way for the Browns to move to the 7th slot is for Jacksonville to win a game (GB???) and for Cleveland to lose all 3.
The only way for the Browns to move to the 9th or lower spot is for the Browns to win multiple games (yeah, right) or for the following games to go unexpected AND the Browns win 1 game:
SD loses to KC
SF loses to St.Louis
GB loses to Detroit AND Jacksonville
Basically, none of those options are likely.
So, the we can pretty much assume the Browns will be picking 8th, with the following being the likely order of the 1st round:
1. Detroit
2. St. Louis
3. Cincinnati
4. Seattle
5. Kansas City
6. Oakland
7. Jacksonville
8. Cleveland
Although there are still 3 weeks left in the season...the Browns are all but locked into the 8th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.
Currently, the first 6 picks are pretty much locked by teams with 2 or fewer wins. None of these teams have a chance of winning 2 more over the last weeks...so no need to look at their schedules.
As for the picks over 12th...those teams have 6 or more wins...and there is no way the Browns win 2 out of 3 vs Pittsburgh/Cincinnati/Philadelphia (we will be lucky to win 1).
So that leaves us in contention with the following teams:
Green Bay 5-8
San Diego 5-8
San Francisco 5-8
Cleveland 4-9
Jacksonville 4-9
Oakland 3-10
If you assume wins over lesser opponents....and losses to teams with better records, these teams will finish with the following records (strength of schedule in parentheses):
Green Bay 7-9 (106)
San Diego 6-10 (108)
San Francisco 6-10 (94)
Cleveland 5-11 (118)
Jacksonville 4-12 (110)
Oakland 3-13 (108)
As strength of schedule is the ONLY tie-breaker (before a coin toss) in draft selection...the ONLY way for the Browns to move to the 7th slot is for Jacksonville to win a game (GB???) and for Cleveland to lose all 3.
The only way for the Browns to move to the 9th or lower spot is for the Browns to win multiple games (yeah, right) or for the following games to go unexpected AND the Browns win 1 game:
SD loses to KC
SF loses to St.Louis
GB loses to Detroit AND Jacksonville
Basically, none of those options are likely.
So, the we can pretty much assume the Browns will be picking 8th, with the following being the likely order of the 1st round:
1. Detroit
2. St. Louis
3. Cincinnati
4. Seattle
5. Kansas City
6. Oakland
7. Jacksonville
8. Cleveland
Wow...was I wrong. After only 1 week it is pretty obvious the Browns are looking like they may even have a top 5 pick.
Jacksonville won....and put the Browns into the 7th slot already.
Seattle won....and are now only 1 game ahead of the Browns...with a home game vs the Jets (which team will show up?) and a road game vs Arizona (who has already wrapped up the 4th seed and not likely to move up.
Cincinnati won...and now have games vs US and home vs KC
It is just as likely that Seattle and Cincinnati will win their last 2 games as it is that the Browns will lose their last two games...putting the Browns 5th. The more likely position is now 6th...with Cincinnati beating us and KC to move back into 7th. The revised top 8 is now
1. Detroit
2. St.Louis
3. KC
4. Seattle
5. Oakland
6. Cleveland
7. Cincinnati
8. Jacksonville/GB/SF (who cares)
However, a win over Cincinnati will put us back into the 8th at best scenario...with as low as 10th still possible.
-
Wouldn't the Bengals take DA for their 3rd round pick (assuming DA is healthy)? He is certainly better than that kid from Harvard. For us, that is nearly a low 2nd round pick.
Wouldn't the Bengals take DA for their 3rd round pick (assuming DA is healthy)? He is certainly better than that kid from Harvard. For us, that is nearly a low 2nd round pick.
Why would the Bengles even consider DA. They have Palmer and a DA clone in their backup.
How About Detroit, Minn, Seattle? Especially The Seahawks who need to rebuild everywhere.
-
Assuming this is the top of the draft...
1. Detroit - Matt Stafford or Sam Bradford...but Stafford wins out
2. St.Louis - Andre Smith, OT
3. KC - Michael Oher, OT (they may go with Bradford...but I think Thigpen gets another year)
4. Seattle - Michael Crabtree, WR (they need weapons on offense)
5. Oakland - Taylor Mays, SS (this is Oakland after all)
6. Cleveland - decisions, decisions
They guys the Browns are likely to look at (Orakpo, Maualuga, Lauriniatis, Curry, Jenkins, Davis, Cushing) are all pretty much UNLIKELY to go before the Browns pick here. The one MOST likely to be gone will be Curry...as he might be gone to St. Louis, Oakland or Cincinnati if they pick ahead of us.
So, there is a pretty good chance we are going to have our pick of 6 out of 7 of our top players (and Cinci may just go with Wells anyway).
Currently, the guys moving UP according to Kiper are Cushing/Jenkins/Orakpo/Tyson Jackson/Laurinaitis (Maualuga #3 and Curry #1 are at the top anyway).
Scouts Inc has Jenkins and Curry as the top of that group.
I just don't see us going corner in the first round...and with Curry being the top guy according to Kiper/Scouts Inc/Scott Wright....he seems to be the way the Browns are likely to go.
With the possibility of going to a 4-3...I think the VERSATILITY of Curry is going to be a huge factor.
-
Great work on this, John. Thanks for keeping it updated.
I'm hoping for Curry now. Alo's Curry-ing favor (badumBUH) has worked on me too. That guy just LOOKS like a stud.
And if you look back at the last few top 10 true LBs (not rush guys like Gholston), they are a pretty safe pick. Speed and power at that position definitely translate and Curry has that in spades.
I don't like the idea of Orakpo AT ALL. It's great he's a weightlifter and all but I just don't trust guys like that.
If it's not Curry, then I'd take my chances on Maualuga. We HAVE to have that LB presence, I think, and a true stud LB will make everyone even better.
-
Ha. Nice, Juki.
But don't take my word as gospel on Curry. You can watch him play this Saturday at 11 on ESPN & judge for yourself.
Later this week, I'll be posting a writeup of which prospects to watch in that & the other bowl games this weekend. Curry definitely will be at the top of the list.
-
I think the Browns will pick 7th...as far as who?...I have no idea as I have not had the time to follow the college game as usual. They SHOULD be able to grab a very nice player.
I DO agree with moving Cribbs to RB...that would REALLY diversify the offense.
Time will tell
Mike
-
I want a sure thing.
I don't want a stretch.
I don't want a project.
I don't really care what position he plays, I just want him to play, and play it well.
To me, the worst thing we can do is focus on "a" position....let's just get a damn good football player.
-
i don't know that we'll pick eighth at this point. there are three five-win teams in the league: san francisco, jacksonville and green bay.
san francisco is rounding into form and has a win on us with games remaining at saint louis ang against washington; they should at least win one of those and could possibly take both.
jacksonville has indianapolis and baltimore left. both would be tough wins, but there's always the chance that baltimore could hav nothing to play for and rest their starters in their week 17 matchup.
green bay plays in chicago and then has detroit at home. they'll at least be able to handle the lions and could take the bears down. any nfc north team can lose to any other during any given week. there's just no predicting that division. then again, if the lions haven't won before week 17, they're going to seriously throw down the gauntlet to avoid being the first 0-16 team.
which only leaves us. we have the bengals at home and then we go to pittsburgh. the way we're playing right now, i don't know if we can even beat the bengals. i'm just not sure if we can score enough points. it's entirely conceivable that one TD could beat us. definitely two.
this could end up being a four-win season very easily, and we could have the seventh pick in the draft.
-
i don't know that we'll pick eighth at this point. there are three five-win teams in the league: san francisco, jacksonville and green bay.
san francisco is rounding into form and has a win on us with games remaining at saint louis ang against washington; they should at least win one of those and could possibly take both.
jacksonville has indianapolis and baltimore left. both would be tough wins, but there's always the chance that baltimore could hav nothing to play for and rest their starters in their week 17 matchup.
green bay plays in chicago and then has detroit at home. they'll at least be able to handle the lions and could take the bears down. any nfc north team can lose to any other during any given week. there's just no predicting that division. then again, if the lions haven't won before week 17, they're going to seriously throw down the gauntlet to avoid being the first 0-16 team.
which only leaves us. we have the bengals at home and then we go to pittsburgh. the way we're playing right now, i don't know if we can even beat the bengals. i'm just not sure if we can score enough points. it's entirely conceivable that one TD could beat us. definitely two.
this could end up being a four-win season very easily, and we could have the seventh pick in the draft.
i don't know that we'll pick eighth at this point. there are three five-win teams in the league: san francisco, jacksonville and green bay.
san francisco is rounding into form and has a win on us with games remaining at saint louis ang against washington; they should at least win one of those and could possibly take both.
jacksonville has indianapolis and baltimore left. both would be tough wins, but there's always the chance that baltimore could hav nothing to play for and rest their starters in their week 17 matchup.
green bay plays in chicago and then has detroit at home. they'll at least be able to handle the lions and could take the bears down. any nfc north team can lose to any other during any given week. there's just no predicting that division. then again, if the lions haven't won before week 17, they're going to seriously throw down the gauntlet to avoid being the first 0-16 team.
which only leaves us. we have the bengals at home and then we go to pittsburgh. the way we're playing right now, i don't know if we can even beat the bengals. i'm just not sure if we can score enough points. it's entirely conceivable that one TD could beat us. definitely two.
this could end up being a four-win season very easily, and we could have the seventh pick in the draft.
JD, I already updated this to show we will LIKELY pick 6th. I think we don't win another game...and I think Cincinnati beat US AND KC...to end up 1/2 a game ahead of us.
-
whoops. my bad. i should've re-read the earlier posts. i am, after all, sometimes an idiot.
-
I thought Michael Crabbtree was a pure Sophmore and not eligible for the draft. Some Seattle blogs are talking about Bennie Wells or Sam Bradford.
-
after today's action, with seattle and the raiders winning, the browns now have the fifth pick in the draft. it's detroit, st. louis, kansas city, cincinnati then us, though seattle likely has a weaker SOS, which would bump us behind them to sixth.
after today's action, with seattle and the raiders winning, the browns now have the fifth pick in the draft. it's detroit, st. louis, kansas city, cincinnati then us, though seattle likely has a weaker SOS, which would bump us behind them to sixth.
Oakland and Seattle BOTH have a weaker strength of schedule than us....so we remain 7th at this point.
The only way we move up is if we lose (likely) next week and one of the following teams win:
Cincinnati (play KC in Cincy)(LIKELY)
Oakland (play @ TB)(NOT LIKELY)
Seattle (play @ AZ)(POSSIBLE)
The only way we move down is if we WIN (not likely) next week and one or more of the following teams lose:
Jacksonville (@ Baltimore)(LIKELY)
Green Bay (@ Chicago; Detroit)(NOT LIKELY)
So we are are MOST LIKELY to pick 6th or 7th...and I would bet on 6th.
-
I just go here to see the odds of where we most likely will pick.....pretty good site you may want to bookmark....and yes....6 seems to be the number
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better đź’—
Register Login