Love Qb Talk- Stats Do Not Lie

pizzadeliveryguy

Jason Campbell and Alex Smith are busts but Vince Young isn't? I think Smith's problems are more to the fact that he has had a new system every year and minimal protection.

BuckeyeBrown

@pizzadeliveryguy said:

Jason Campbell and Alex Smith are busts but Vince Young isn't? I think Smith's problems are more to the fact that he has had a new system every year and minimal protection.

not only has he had a new system year, im not sure all of them fit his style. The year (singular) that norv turner was the offensive cordinator he was starting to show improvement.....then he took the chargers job.

I think harbaugh is playing to his qb's strengths.

hoorta

You're sounding exactly like our departed pal Shepwrite. Of course, your odds of getting a starting qb in the first round are better, as are your odds of getting a starter at damn near any other position on your team. Want to list the humongous first round qb busts, starting with Ryan Leaf? Joey Harrington?

Problem is, busting on a qb in the first round sets you back farther than virtually any other position- just ask the Bengals about David Kingler and Akilli Smith.

Frenchie

@tampadawgs said:

This was a post just to show that 1st round picks of QBs have a greater success rate than a third round pick...

Smith has had 4 good games...I am not believing the hype yet. He is off to a good year...

As for Teabow, you are crazy to think he will succeed. He caught the Defense off gaurd last weak. Remember DA, once defenses get tape on Him he is done!!!! Sorry I cannot stand Teabow at all!!!

For us to run a QB out there every weak like a Colt Mccoy, Charlie Frye, Brady Quinn ( first round pic ) we need to have a Balt. Raven type Defense. That is what I think our front office is doing with out early draft picks. Haden, Ward, Taylor, Sheard..It would not suprise me at all if we take 2 more stud defensive players in this years draft.

Say the Browns take Quinton Coples from North Carlina and Manti Te’o from Notre Dame. The Browns Defense than could maybe carry the Browns like the Ravens D does until we can get a QB that could take us to the Promise land. Imagine the Ravens with a Stafford, Bradford, Freeman thats not even talking about the big boy QBs....

But these statistics would be the same for every position drafted. Earlier rounds = greater probability of success than later rounds. 1st off the board in any position will have a greater probability of success than the n+1 player. That's why teams spend so much time and effort measuring and reviewing tape before the draft - so that they take the better player available. And that's why when a stud is found in the 4th to 6th rounds, the team is really credited because the probabilities start getting pretty low down there.

And yes, the way things are going for Colt, we could end up picking a QB with our first pick of the draft next year. But I hope not.

calfoxwc

I remember when Sheppie insisted that super duper Matt Leinart was the star qb the Browns needed, you know...

he would "raise the level of play of his offense to the super bowl"....

at least that is one disaster the Browns never made. Stats just are an indicator of

what people want to prove, sometimes, two people can use the same stats, but tweaked and presented differently,

to prove two different viewpoints.

Stats "said" that Jamarcus Russel, Matt Leinart, Alex Smith, etc etc..... would be stars.... etc. etc. etc.

USFBrown

Interesting read.

But like was said before, the potential best players get picked first so no surprise that the 1st rounders have a better chance of succeeding.

This just in, water is wet.

Pumpkin Eater

And before Tom Brady there were little to no successful late-round QB's.

The past is not always an indicator of the future.

Look at Queen. We got him in Round 1. He was eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeexcellent!

The Gipper

This is the sort of analysis that I frequently do...so thanks for saving me the time to do it.

As someone said, this sort of demonstration, showing the success rate of each position by draft rank, can be applied to any position. It would be interesting to see how it applies to running backs who at one time were the stars of the draft process, but now have seemingly been relegated to role players.

tampadawgs

Of course there will be bust, I even said it the post..It just show that maybe we neeed to stop hoping for a 3rd round, 4th or 5th round QB tae us to the promise land

I am working on same stats for running backs, but its a little harder

Mr. T

Baby Colt threw for over 350 yards in his last game and we still sucked and couldn't pull out a win.

I believe you need to have a top notch QB coach and a top notch OC to have a effective QB. If the man has the tools and is teachable you have a winning combination.

But we are talking about the New and Improved Browns that the NFL gave us and we still cannot get the laundry to come out right. Maybe we should sell it to the Chinese, they are great at pressing shirts and ties.

The Gipper

@pumpkin-eater said:

And before Tom Brady there were little to no successful late-round QB's.

The past is not always an indicator of the future.

Bart Starr was a 17th round pick. Brian Sipe a 13th round pick. Actually there were more late round successes in th past than in more recent years when scouting systems have become more sophisticated and those diamonds in the rough are now easier to discern.