It Comes Down To Weeden (Or, "duh")
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It's a quarterback league. We know that. We know the best teams are generally the teams with the best quarterbacks, to paraphrase Aikman. The top of the Passer Ratings pretty much overlays the playoff field every year with one or two outliers.
So it makes sense that the "new era" Browns have had a quarterback complete a season of 10 or more starts with a PR over 80... exactly once. And not by much. Derek Anderson rang up an 82.6 in 2007 when the Browns won 10 games. That figure won't give you a lot of job security in this league. Ask Ryan Fitzpatrick, among others. 21 starters topped 80 last year. It's only rare in Cleveland.
The new "Mendoza Line" for starting quarterbacks is 90. It's very difficult to win double digit games with a QB ringing up less than that. It happens... but for the most part, playoff teams feature passers with a rating above 90.
For the Browns to win 10 or more games next year, Brandon Weeden needs to have a PR close to or above 90. He probably keeps his job at 88 with 9 wins... but the Browns have filled a lot of holes and aren't likely to pass on a passer if they pick in the top 10 or so. They can get a tight end or cornerback somewhere else, like with all those other draft picks and scads of cap space.
Top 10 picks are for pass rushers (done), left tackles (done), and quarterbacks unless you're damn sure you have a serious guy, a playoff-caliber starter younger than 32-ish.
So 2013 can be about a lot of things... but most of all, it's about Weeden.
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For what it's worth, the Browns options at quarterback would be many after the season. Already Tajh Boyd is regularly mocked to us and it makes a ton of sense: He's a RO dream but he also has a fantastic arm and a compact release. Seems poised for a huge season and could battle Bridgewater for #1 overall. Boyd won his second HS state championship... waited until after the season to have knee surgery. Tough kid.
The other name to keep in mind, of course, is Ryan Mallett. Next offseason is the Pats last shot at getting something for him.
My opinion: I love the way Weeds throws a football. This offense will suit him to a tee, a lot of shotgun and a lot of downfield stuff. But Weeden ranked 22nd of 23 throwing past 20, a horrible stat for a guy with his natural arm talent. By his own account, he missed throws he'd never missed in his life, "including high school." He was off way more than suggested by his college tape where he showed great accuracy. He needs to hit those passes to get value out of that arm... because he ain't gonna run with Tajh Boyd, period.
I'm not sure "pretty good" will be good enough. Might've been if he'd come out at 23 instead of 28 going on 29. He turns 30 in October and has to look like a guy at least on the verge of his full-on prime for the next five years (he'll still only be 34 to start that fifth season). That's the only way it makes sense, really.
So how do you quantify "on the verge of full-on prime?" He has to be the reason we win games. He has to complete passes downfield with some regularity. He has to complete over 60%, a really important benchmark for winning. He should edge toward a 2/1 TD/INT ratio, or no less than 1.5/1. He needs a YPA over 7 and that's low. 7.5 is more like it.
If he does those things, he'll throw for close to 4,000 yards and a PR no lower than the high 80s, more likely over 90. At that would do it. I do not believe 3,600, 22/18, and 82.0 get it done.
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Somewhat related: Weeden says last year his excitement level was 3. This year it's "12." Word is he show significant improvement in his footwork and pace, making the read and getting the ball out. Part of B is traceable to A, of course. He just feels more comfortable in the shotgun.
Guy's being put in the absolute perfect situation. No excuses. Love the arm, hated the downfield whiffs last year.
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How can your excitement level be "3" as a rookie starter in the NFL ... regardless of how dismal of an offense you were entrusted with.
Zombo
--Best arm we've had since Testeverde, easily ... he'll be fine in this offense. He's either going to be "good" or "really good".
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How can your excitement level be "3" as a rookie starter in the NFL ... regardless of how dismal of an offense you were entrusted with.
Zombo
--Best arm we've had since Testeverde, easily ... he'll be fine in this offense. He's either going to be "good" or "really good".
Zombo said:
He's either going to be "good" or "really good".
and if he isn't he'll be 'gone'.
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Good enough isn't at quarterback in today's NFL. Best teams are the teams with the best quarterbacks. Fitzpatrick was serviceable, solid, decent, whatever you wanna call it... and now he's sitting. He had an 83 PR and not all that long ago (10-12 years) that kept you in the driver's seat.
It's not good enough anymore. You either have a great quarterback or you're actively looking for one.
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i agree. but if we are correct then i think next year's class of QBs will get bum-rushed fast and furiously early throughout round one of the 2014 draft.
if weeden steps up and shows the team he can do the job great, then we can focus on one of many problem spots that i'm sure will pop up during this season. could be the OL, the DBs or any of another glaring holes that could arise.
right now the kid better get his head in the game and start to act like a leader not only in the locker room and huddle but by making actual game winning plays at this nfl level.
if not god knows who'll be the #1-5 QB prospects of 2014. let's hope we don't have to go down that road.
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Hopefully Weeden improves a ton in this offense. My concern is he never seemed to have a "pocket presence" last year, never felt the pass rush when looking to throw.
Our schedule is tougher (AFC East, NFC North), so he's going to have to step his game up for sure.
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It's all good news so far, publicly and according to "sources." The braintrust put some heat on him with Campbell and Hoyer, both way bigger threats than Freckles. He's impressed with his work habits so far which was a bit of an issue. He's taken coaching well and improved in some key areas (footwork, eyes). He has rare arm talent and you want to do all you can to make that work out, but in the end you either have it or you don't. You can either process and act fast and correctly or you can't. You can either deliver the ball on time and in the right place over and over or you can't. You can either deal with a crumbling pocket or you can't.
It's obviously early but next year looks like a terrific QB draft. I'm a huge Tajh Boyd fan and could certainly get excited about that. I'd far prefer that Weeden steps up, though.
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It's all good news so far, publicly and according to "sources." The braintrust put some heat on him with Campbell and Hoyer, both way bigger threats than Freckles. He's impressed with his work habits so far which was a bit of an issue. He's taken coaching well and improved in some key areas (footwork, eyes). He has rare arm talent and you want to do all you can to make that work out, but in the end you either have it or you don't. You can either process and act fast and correctly or you can't. You can either deliver the ball on time and in the right place over and over or you can't. You can either deal with a crumbling pocket or you can't.
It's obviously early but next year looks like a terrific QB draft. I'm a huge Tajh Boyd fan and could certainly get excited about that. I'd far prefer that Weeden steps up, though.
It's all good news so far, publicly and according to "sources." The braintrust put some heat on him with Campbell and Hoyer, both way bigger threats than Freckles. He's impressed with his work habits so far which was a bit of an issue. He's taken coaching well and improved in some key areas (footwork, eyes). He has rare arm talent and you want to do all you can to make that work out, but in the end you either have it or you don't. You can either process and act fast and correctly or you can't. You can either deliver the ball on time and in the right place over and over or you can't. You can either deal with a crumbling pocket or you can't.
It's obviously early but next year looks like a terrific QB draft. I'm a huge Tajh Boyd fan and could certainly get excited about that. I'd far prefer that Weeden steps up, though.
Tajh Boyd is a fat vagina.
I saw him last weekend at a bar and he was drinking a baybreeze.
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Boyd's amazing. He's one of a few serious candidates for Heisman and I won't be shocked if he goes #1 overall in front of Bridgewater.
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Boyd's amazing. He's one of a few serious candidates for Heisman and I won't be shocked if he goes #1 overall in front of Bridgewater.
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Boyd's amazing. He's one of a few serious candidates for Heisman and I won't be shocked if he goes #1 overall in front of Bridgewater.
Boyd's amazing. He's one of a few serious candidates for Heisman and I won't be shocked if he goes #1 overall in front of Bridgewater.
Let's wait until say week 8 to let Weeden fall flat on his face before we start discussing the 2014 qb class. I know you can't help yourself.
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Let's wait until say week 8 to let Weeden fall flat on his face before we start discussing the 2014 qb class. I know you can't help yourself.
If we have a 6-10 season then we'll be drafting high enough to get a QB. Assuming you'll see Clowney, Bridgewater and Boyd going top 3, probably to Buffalo, Jacksonville and Oakland. That leaves someone to pick up Manziel, which could be us. We won't be in the market for an LT, obviously, and presumably not an OLB.
Hopefully, though, we'll be going something more like 8-8, middle of the roud. That means maybe Weeden gets to keep his job for another year while we develop a 2nd/3rd round QB. It also means we get 1st round talent at one of the spots we all have concerns about this year, with rookies, sophomores and UDFAs filling in - ILB, CB, FS, TE.
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I believe we are drafting a QB in the first round next year regardless of how Weeden plays. With his age be a factor I think we draft our QB to lead this team when we are ready to make a serious run. Who that will be I do not know!
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It's all a waste of time speculating over it right now. If we hadn't taken Weeden last year, gone in with Colt, people would have been saying "give him this year, then if he still sucks draft Matt Barkley in 2013" - look how that turned out.
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For all we know an RGIII type QB will emerge this year (Braxton, Gardner, etc) and we'll get to hop on the new NFL craze
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well there is a back up plan on the horizon.
yep, jamarcus russell is making a comeback.
to what i don't know, but......
BWAHAHA!!
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I don't see it as a mutually exclusive situation. I always like talking quarterbacks... but I really hope we won't be drafting one high because the offense fits Weeds like a glove and he throws for 4,000 and 25 or more.
Let's wait until say week 8 to let Weeden fall flat on his face before we start discussing the 2014 qb class. I know you can't help yourself.
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If Weeden's good this year, his age isn't that much of a factor. If he starts for the next six seasons, he'll turn 35 in that sixth year. Younger than Tom Brady who had more wear on his arm coming in.
Who was the last Browns quarterback to start seven straight seasons? Kosar's "quality years" were way less than that. Sipe was a blip, basically. You'd have to go WAY back.
If Weeden's good, you don't draft his successor this soon because he's a free agent in four years (like the Mallett situation). I'd say you draft Weeden's possible successor when you think Weeds has maybe two more years left... like in four or five years.
Quarterbacks are very regularly playing into their late 30s. If Weeden started his last season in the year he turned 37 in October, it wouldn't be anything unusual.
And guess what? That would be 8 years!!
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