A Lesson to Be Learned?

[Sienn13]

All this talk about QB's is irelavent. Who ever the Browns draft, will start on opening day and be hurt by week fuking 8.

[The Gipper]

As a couple of you noted....in some years there was NO franchise type QB drafted. I will highlight in red which years those are.

I will highlight in blue whom I think are clear franchise guys.

1970 Bradshaw #1....and he is the #1 best QB of that year

1971 Jim Plunkett .....but 3 4 other QBs that year are almost equal: Archie Manning/Dan Pastorini/Joe Theisman/Ken Anderson

1972 Jerry Tagge....may as well consider him best because that year produced crap at QB

1973 Bert Jones....but Dan Fouts and better career and Joe Ferguson and Ron Jaworski equal

1974 Danny White #1 and he was the best that year

1975 Steve Bartkowski.....but Steve Grogan had a much better career

1976 Richard Todd #1 and #1

1977 Steve Pisarkewisc....but Tommy Kramer had a much better career

1978 Doug Williams #1 and #1

1979 Jack Thompson....but Joe Montana and Phil Simms had better careers

1980 Marc Wilson.....but, arguably Eric Hipple had a better career

1981 Neil Lomax #1 and #1

1982 Art Schlichter....but Jim McMahon had a much better career (duh!)

1983 John Elway #1...and probably #1, though arguably Marino and Kelly were about equal

1984 Boomer Esiason #1 and #1

1985 Randall Cunningham #1 and #1 (note....not counting Kosar taken in Supp. draft)

1986 Jim Everett #1 and #1

1987 Vinny Testaverde.....but actually Rich Gannon may have had a more productive career

1988 Tom Tupa....but Chris Chandler and Stan Humphries had better careers

1989 Troy Aikman #1 and #1

1990 Jeff George.....but Neil O'Donnell probably had a better career

1991 McGwire/Marinovich......top two taken that year can't compare to Brett Favre

1992 David Klingler....but Jeff Blake had a more productive career

1993 Drew Bledsoe #1 and #1

1994 Heath Shuler....but both Trent Dilfer and Gus Frerotte had more productive careers

1995 Steve McNair #1 and #1

1996 Tony Banks #1 and #1

1997 Jim Druckenmiller....but Jake Plummer had a better career

1998 Peyton Manning #1 and #1

1999 Tim Couch....but Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper had better careers

2000 Chud Pennington....but Mark Bulger and Tom Brady (duh) had better careers

2001 Michael Vick....but Drew Brees has a more productive career

2002 David Carr....but David Garrard had a better career

2003 Carson Palmer #1 and #1

2004 Eli Manning.....debatable whether he/Rivers/Roethlisberger has better career

2005 Alex Smith....but Aaron Rodgers has better career

2006 Vince Young/Matt Leinert....top 2 choices can't match #3 Jay Cutler

2007 Jamarcus Russell....bad year....best QB out of group is Trent Edwards

2008 Matt Ryan.....but most consider Joe Flacco to be having more productive career

2009 Matt Stafford.....probably the best...but only about equally productive so far as Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman

2010 Sam Bradford #1 and #1 (only competition: Tebow/McCoy)

2011 Cam Newton #1 and #1 (but so far Dalton close)

2012 Andrew Luck #1.....and pretty clearly seems to be the #1 guy...though RGII and Russell good.

You are welcome to add/subtract/argue with my designations.

[hoorta]

@the-gipper said:

As a couple of you noted....in some years there was NO franchise type QB drafted. I will highlight in red which years those are.

I will highlight in blue whom I think are clear franchise guys.

1970 Bradshaw #1....and he is the #1 best QB of that year

1971 Jim Plunkett .....but 3 4 other QBs that year are almost equal: Archie Manning/Dan Pastorini/Joe Theisman/Ken Anderson

1972 Jerry Tagge....may as well consider him best because that year produced crap at QB

1973 Bert Jones....but Dan Fouts and better career and Joe Ferguson and Ron Jaworski equal

1974 Danny White #1 and he was the best that year

1975 Steve Bartkowski.....but Steve Grogan had a much better career

1976 Richard Todd #1 and #1

1977 Steve Pisarkewisc....but Tommy Kramer had a much better career

1978 Doug Williams #1 and #1

1979 Jack Thompson....but Joe Montana and Phil Simms had better careers

1980 Marc Wilson.....but, arguably Eric Hipple had a better career

1981 Neil Lomax #1 and #1

1982 Art Schlichter....but Jim McMahon had a much better career (duh!)

1983 John Elway #1...and probably #1, though arguably Marino and Kelly were about equal

1984 Boomer Esiason #1 and #1

1985 Randall Cunningham #1 and #1 (note....not counting Kosar taken in Supp. draft)

1986 Jim Everett #1 and #1

1987 Vinny Testaverde.....but actually Rich Gannon may have had a more productive career

1988 Tom Tupa....but Chris Chandler and Stan Humphries had better careers

1989 Troy Aikman #1 and #1

1990 Jeff George.....but Neil O'Donnell probably had a better career

1991 McGwire/Marinovich......top two taken that year can't compare to Brett Favre

1992 David Klingler....but Jeff Blake had a more productive career

1993 Drew Bledsoe #1 and #1

1994 Heath Shuler....but both Trent Dilfer and Gus Frerotte had more productive careers

1995 Steve McNair #1 and #1

1996 Tony Banks #1 and #1

1997 Jim Druckenmiller....but Jake Plummer had a better career

1998 Peyton Manning #1 and #1

1999 Tim Couch....but Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper had better careers

2000 Chud Pennington....but Mark Bulger and Tom Brady (duh) had better careers

2001 Michael Vick....but Drew Brees has a more productive career

2002 David Carr....but David Garrard had a better career

2003 Carson Palmer #1 and #1

2004 Eli Manning.....debatable whether he/Rivers/Roethlisberger has better career

2005 Alex Smith....but Aaron Rodgers has better career

2006 Vince Young/Matt Leinert....top 2 choices can't match #3 Jay Cutler

2007 Jamarcus Russell....bad year....best QB out of group is Trent Edwards

2008 Matt Ryan.....but most consider Joe Flacco to be having more productive career

2009 Matt Stafford.....probably the best...but only about equally productive so far as Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman

2010 Sam Bradford #1 and #1 (only competition: Tebow/McCoy)

2011 Cam Newton #1 and #1 (but so far Dalton close)

2012 Andrew Luck #1.....and pretty clearly seems to be the #1 guy...though RGII and Russell good.

You are welcome to add/subtract/argue with my designations.

From around 2008 too early to say. Cam Newton, Stafford, Flacco, and Kaepernic have the potential. But your list does go to prove- there may well not be "The Guy" in this draft.

[The Gipper]

@hoorta said:

From around 2008 too early to say. Cam Newton, Stafford, Flacco, and Kaepernic have the potential. But your list does go to prove- there may well not be "The Guy" in this draft.

In point of fact, very few drafts probably have THE guy, if by that you mean HOF potential. In history a HOF caliber QB is only drafted really once every 2-3 years of that.

Here are all the HOF QBs drafted in each decade since the draft began in 1936:

1930s: Sammy Baugh, Sid Luckman (2 HOFers)

1940s: Bob Waterfield, Otto Graham, YA Tittle, Bobby Layne, George Blanda, Norm Van Brocklin (6 HOFers)

1950s: John Unitas, Bart Starr, Sonny Jurgenson, Len Dawson (4 HOFers)

1960s: Fran Tarkenton, Roger Staubach, Joe Namath, Bob Griese (4 HOFers)

1970s: Terry Bradshaw, Dan Fouts, Joe Montana (3 HOFers)

1980s: John Elway, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Steve Young, Troy Aikman (5 HOFers)

1990s: Probables: Brett Favre, Peyton Manning. (Possibles: Steve McNair/Drew Bledsoe) (2-3 HOFers

2000s: Probables: Tom Brady, Drew Brees. (Possibles: Eli, Rivers, BR, Rodgers) (2-6 HOFers)

Note: Moon already in would have been drafted circa 1979/1980. He went undrafted and played like 5 years in Canada.

Also possible HOFer Kurt Warner came out of college mid 1990s, went undrafted, played Arena League some.

Thus, on average a HOF caliber QB only comes up 4-5 times per decade. I know you can have "franchise" QBs that are not HOFers...but pretty darn good. ....like a Stabler/Kosar/ etc.

Point is: really good to great QBs don't grow on trees.

[Flyin J]

If were waiting until the next Andrew Luck to invest in a QB, chances are we'll all be dead by the time it happens. And your list does prove one thing.....through all the scouting, evaluations, combines, interviews, nobody can guess which QB's will succeed.

[slimdawg]

@mld-woody said:

Alright, but what are the percentages that it is the #2 guy taken, or #3, #4, etc.? If it is #1 taken vs every other guy taken, then yeah, I would rather have the option between every other guy. But getting it right 42% of the time sounds more than good enough for me.

What?

I thought the same thing LOL..... Stafford is hands down better than those 2 scrubs combined, just been blessed to be on horrible teams

[Osiris]

@the-gipper said:

My point is simply this: Let's say Teddy Twatwater is the first QB taken in the next draft: There is a 60% chance that some other QB taken later than he will have a better career.

OK, so, let's say the Browns don't get Bridgewater.....that they get maybe Bortles instead. There is simply a reasonably fair chance that Bortles could turn out to be as good as Bridgewater.

E.g. in 2004 the Steelers couldn't get at Eli or Rivers....and maybe, sorta had to settle for BR.

Maybe the Browns will be lucky....and instead of taking or getting a McGwire/Marinovich with a high pick....they get that year's Brett Favre.

I'm no statistician but I know enough about stats to know you guys are making some logical flaws in your comparisons.

Of course there is more likelihood that some QB chosen later than #1 will have a better career, because the chances of one superior-talent QB succeeding is less than the chances of at least one of a pool of ten average-talent QBs succeeding.

Now let's say for the sake of argument the Browns follow your logic and pass on the #1 QB because there is a 60% chance some other QB will be better in the later rounds. Now lets say there are again, 10 possible QBs to look at in the later rounds, one of which is said diamond in the rough. The Browns will have a 1 in 10 chance of picking said diamond in the rough, and a 9 in 10 chance of picking a dud. So, the odds of the BROWNS picking a good QB in the later rounds is still worse than if they were to pick one of the top guys.

Let's instead do this. Let's look at QBs from now and historically who have a passer rating of 85 or higher. You can see them listed here: from http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_career.htm

From this list, the # of players per round turns out like this:

Rnd QBs Selected

1 13

2 3

3 2

4 1

5 0

6 1

7 0

8 1

UDFA 4

Therefore, you have a 52% chance of drafting a QB who will go on to have a career passer rating of 85+ if he is selected in the 1st round, a 12% chance if selected in the 2nd round, an 8% chance if drafted in the third round, and a 4% or less chance in any of the subsequent rounds.

As far as I'm concerned, this is pretty definitive proof that the best chance of getting a franchise QB is by selecting him in the first round. Obviously the Browns fall way short of this 52% chance, but that's because of factors such as horrible front-offices and scouting.

[slowburn]

nice analysis

thanks Gipper!

[Flyin J]

@osiris said:

I'm no statistician but I know enough about stats to know you guys are making some logical flaws in your comparisons.

Of course there is more likelihood that some QB chosen later than #1 will have a better career, because the chances of one superior-talent QB succeeding is less than the chances of at least one of a pool of ten average-talent QBs succeeding.

Now let's say for the sake of argument the Browns follow your logic and pass on the #1 QB because there is a 60% chance some other QB will be better in the later rounds. Now lets say there are again, 10 possible QBs to look at in the later rounds, one of which is said diamond in the rough. The Browns will have a 1 in 10 chance of picking said diamond in the rough, and a 9 in 10 chance of picking a dud. So, the odds of the BROWNS picking a good QB in the later rounds is still worse than if they were to pick one of the top guys.

Let's instead do this. Let's look at QBs from now and historically who have a passer rating of 85 or higher. You can see them listed here: from http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_career.htm

From this list, the # of players per round turns out like this:

Rnd QBs Selected

1 13

2 3

3 2

4 1

5 0

6 1

7 0

8 1

UDFA 4

Therefore, you have a 52% chance of drafting a QB who will go on to have a career passer rating of 85+ if he is selected in the 1st round, a 12% chance if selected in the 2nd round, an 8% chance if drafted in the third round, and a 4% or less chance in any of the subsequent rounds.

As far as I'm concerned, this is pretty definitive proof that the best chance of getting a franchise QB is by selecting him in the first round. Obviously the Browns fall way short of this 52% chance, but that's because of factors such as horrible front-offices and scouting.

nice findings but your next to last paragraph is wrong. Out of all the QBs you found with a career passer rating of 85, 52% were picked first round. Doesnt mean there's a 52% chance of a QB picked in the first round having that career rating...in fact its probably closer to 20%.

[Osiris]

XxDaBuckeyexX said:

nice findings but your next to last paragraph is wrong. Out of all the QBs you found with a career passer rating of 85, 52% were picked first round. Doesnt mean there's a 52% chance of a QB picked in the first round having that career rating...in fact its probably closer to 20%.

Oh yeah, you are right, I think... anyway, point still stands, 52% of QBs with 85+ career rating are 1st round picks.

[The Gipper]

XxDaBuckeyexX said:

If were waiting until the next Andrew Luck to invest in a QB, chances are we'll all be dead by the time it happens. And your list does prove one thing.....through all the scouting, evaluations, combines, interviews, nobody can guess which QB's will succeed.

I don't think we will be dead.....but its possible that a HOF caliber QB may not be taken til next year. EJ Manuel and Gino Smith from last year? Probably not HOF caliber. Anyone from this year? Certainly no sure fire.

Next year: Winston/Mariota etc.? Maybe. One every third year.

But then perhaps once every 15-20 years you get a 1971....1983...2004 type year where 3 or so QBs really make it great.

[The Gipper]

@osiris said:

I'm no statistician but I know enough about stats to know you guys are making some logical flaws in your comparisons.

Of course there is more likelihood that some QB chosen later than #1 will have a better career, because the chances of one superior-talent QB succeeding is less than the chances of at least one of a pool of ten average-talent QBs succeeding.

Now let's say for the sake of argument the Browns follow your logic and pass on the #1 QB because there is a 60% chance some other QB will be better in the later rounds. Now lets say there are again, 10 possible QBs to look at in the later rounds, one of which is said diamond in the rough. The Browns will have a 1 in 10 chance of picking said diamond in the rough, and a 9 in 10 chance of picking a dud. So, the odds of the BROWNS picking a good QB in the later rounds is still worse than if they were to pick one of the top guys.

Let's instead do this. Let's look at QBs from now and historically who have a passer rating of 85 or higher. You can see them listed here: from http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_career.htm

From this list, the # of players per round turns out like this:

Rnd QBs Selected

1 13

2 3

3 2

4 1

5 0

6 1

7 0

8 1

UDFA 4

Therefore, you have a 52% chance of drafting a QB who will go on to have a career passer rating of 85+ if he is selected in the 1st round, a 12% chance if selected in the 2nd round, an 8% chance if drafted in the third round, and a 4% or less chance in any of the subsequent rounds.

As far as I'm concerned, this is pretty definitive proof that the best chance of getting a franchise QB is by selecting him in the first round. Obviously the Browns fall way short of this 52% chance, but that's because of factors such as horrible front-offices and scouting.

I think you are missing my point: I am simply saying that the best QB to come out of a draft is more often not the first QB taken in that draft. That guy could certainly still be a first round pick...maybe even a high first round pick.

If you are saying that the chances of getting a great QB go down exponentially the further you go down the draft, I agree.

The third round Joe Montana/6th round Tom Brady are indeed rare anomallies. But seeing an Aaron Rodgers do better than an Alex Smith? Not so rare.. In any number of cases it is not that the later QB taken is all that great....it is that that #1 guy became a complete bust. Trent Edwards is better than Jamarcus Russell....but that ain't saying much. Dilfer and Frerotte better than Shuler, Yea. So?

Getting a Brett Favre later when McGwire/Marinovich were taken ahead of him is also probably fairly rare.

And, naturally the real point I am making is that if the Browns get Bortles/Manziel we should not feel we were shortchanged. The Browns may get the best of the bunch.

[Flyin J]

@the-gipper said:

I don't think we will be dead.....but its possible that a HOF caliber QB may not be taken til next year. EJ Manuel and Gino Smith from last year? Probably not HOF caliber. Anyone from this year? Certainly no sure fire.

Next year: Winston/Mariota etc.? Maybe. One every third year.

But then perhaps once every 15-20 years you get a 1971....1983...2004 type year where 3 or so QBs really make it great.

I meant that there was a cant miss prospect that was the clear #1 guy and we were picking in a position to get him.

[hoorta]

@the-gipper said:

In point of fact, very few drafts probably have THE guy, if by that you mean HOF potential. In history a HOF caliber QB is only drafted really once every 2-3 years of that.

Here are all the HOF QBs drafted in each decade since the draft began in 1936:

1930s: Sammy Baugh, Sid Luckman (2 HOFers)

1940s: Bob Waterfield, Otto Graham, YA Tittle, Bobby Layne, George Blanda, Norm Van Brocklin (6 HOFers)

1950s: John Unitas, Bart Starr, Sonny Jurgenson, Len Dawson (4 HOFers)

1960s: Fran Tarkenton, Roger Staubach, Joe Namath, Bob Griese (4 HOFers)

1970s: Terry Bradshaw, Dan Fouts, Joe Montana (3 HOFers)

1980s: John Elway, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Steve Young, Troy Aikman (5 HOFers)

1990s: Probables: Brett Favre, Peyton Manning. (Possibles: Steve McNair/Drew Bledsoe) (2-3 HOFers

2000s: Probables: Tom Brady, Drew Brees. (Possibles: Eli, Rivers, BR, Rodgers) (2-6 HOFers)

Note: Moon already in would have been drafted circa 1979/1980. He went undrafted and played like 5 years in Canada.

Also possible HOFer Kurt Warner came out of college mid 1990s, went undrafted, played Arena League some.

Thus, on average a HOF caliber QB only comes up 4-5 times per decade. I know you can have "franchise" QBs that are not HOFers...but pretty darn good. ....like a Stabler/Kosar/ etc.

Point is: really good to great QBs don't grow on trees.

Farve, Manning, & Brady, are mortal locks to get in. Brees is 95%+ probable. and Rodgers only needs another good year or two to join the club.

I suggest you save this post for the next time Shep starts spouting off about the great qb potential in the 2014 draft.

[LondonBrown]

Considering how many QBs are taken per draft I think 42% is in fact a very high percentage of getting the best of the lot if picking first.

I'd take that as a sign to go up and get one rather than the opposite.

[The Gipper]

@hoorta said:

Farve, Manning, & Brady, are mortal locks to get in. Brees is 95%+ probable. and Rodgers only needs another good year or two to join the club.

I suggest you save this post for the next time Shep starts spouting off about the great qb potential in the 2014 draft.

Well, here I guess we have to figure out what we mean by "franchise" QB. Perhaps a guy can be a franchise QB....but not necessarily a HOF QB.

Take the 1970s......which produced only 3 HOF QBs: Bradshaw/Fouts/Montana. But a number of other very good QBs came out in those years: Plunkett, Anderson, Pastorini, Theismann, Simms, Bert Jones, Joe Ferguson.

Same with the 90s: Only Favre and Manning are locks, but the likes of McNair, Bledsoe were very good.

And take 2004: Do you think any of Eli, Rivers, BR will make the HOF? Or all of them? If you just take pure stats Rivers probably has been every bit as productive a QB as Eli and BR. But what about those 2 titles each of them holds? Is that a by far plus factor that gets Eli and BR HOF credit that Rivers doesn't get because he has no title?

[The Gipper]

I guess, what I am saying is that I am going to go out on a limb: Bridgewater seems likely to be the first QB taken.....possibly/probably even the #1 overall pick of this draft.

I predict that 10 years from now we will look back and 1 or 2 of the lower QBs will be seen to be having better careers than Bridgewater.

The way I see it I have about a 58% chance of being right.

[Flyin J]

@the-gipper said:

I guess, what I am saying is that I am going to go out on a limb: Bridgewater seems likely to be the first QB taken.....possibly/probably even the #1 overall pick of this draft.

I predict that 10 years from now we will look back and 1 or 2 of the lower QBs will be seen to be having better careers than Bridgewater.

The way I see it I have about a 58% chance of being right.

Now you just have to figure out which one....you have about a 15% chance of being right.

[Tour2ma]

@the-gipper said:

I must make one retraction from above. I stated that in the 1972 draft it was a crap year for QBs......but for my original research I only checked the first 7 rounds of each draft. But in 1972 the Browns got the very best QB taken in that draft......in the 13th round....by the name of Brian Sipe.

The number of rounds in the draft is an important point, Gip. The pack for a wunderkind to emerge from was bigger in the past than it is now.

• Since '94 we've had 12 rounds;
• in '93 there were 8;
• from '77 thru '92 there were 12;
• 17 from '76 thru '91.

There were 20 rounds in the 60's and even earlier there were 30+.

XxDaBuckeyexX said:

Without a doubt, the first guy picked is the safest and best play. So the first guy taken is he best 40% of the time, how about the second? Third? Fourth?

Taken with your insistence that organizations cannot guess which QBs will succeed (see below), it would seem that you really do believe that the QB picked first turns out to be good because he was picked first, rather than he is picked first because he is good.

Do you also put your cart before your horse?

XxDaBuckeyexX said:

And your list does prove one thing.....through all the scouting, evaluations, combines, interviews, nobody can guess which QB's will succeed.

They're not guessing... and your own position as stated in the previous quote shows that. If they were guessing, then the probability of success at QB would be equal regardless of when the QB is drafted. Yet you maintain the earlier one is tabbed, the greater that QBs chance of success is. Which is it?

Have you ever read Moneyball? Or at least seen the movie? Scouting is simply as flawed in football as it historically has been in baseball.

But whether flawed or guesswork, mistakes are compounded when need is allowed to influence rational thought.

[Flyin J]

@tour2ma said:

The number of rounds in the draft is an important point, Gip. The pack for a wunderkind to emerge from was bigger in the past than it is now.

• Since '94 we've had 12 rounds;
• in '93 there were 8;
• from '77 thru '92 there were 12;
• 17 from '76 thru '91.

There were 20 rounds in the 60's and even earlier there were 30+.

Taken with your insistence that organizations cannot guess which QBs will succeed (see below), it would seem that you really do believe that the QB picked first turns out to be good because he was picked first, rather than he is picked first because he is good.

Do you also put your cart before your horse?

They're not guessing... and your own position as stated in the previous quote shows that. If they were guessing, then the probability of success at QB would be equal regardless of when the QB is drafted. Yet you maintain the earlier one is tabbed, the greater that QBs chance of success is. Which is it?

Have you ever read Moneyball? Or at least seen the movie? Scouting is simply as flawed in football as it historically has been in baseball.

But whether flawed or guesswork, mistakes are compounded when need is allowed to influence rational thought.

wow dude, is that really what you think I meant? Yes, I know theyre not guessing and I know guys aren't going to be good because of a draft slot. My point was made to dispute the OP. And I was just saying that scouts are wrong more than theyre right. If the Jets dont draft OBrien do the Dolphins take him instead of Marino? Scouting is not flawed, pretty sure they do everything they can conceivably do to evaluate these players and rank em. But scouting is an inexact science because there are too many variables. Pretty sure the Patriots would have taken Brady in the first round if they knew he was going to be as good as he is....so they got lucky.