Browns' new SB odds
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via NBC Sports...
Posted by Mike Wilkening on May 29, 2014, 11:53 PM EDT
APEver been to a Nevada sports book and just stared at the odds board? Of course not — you have better things to do, such as attend pool parties.
Well, should you pay attention to that brightly colored board, you may see the odds move on a game or two, maybe a line or a total changing by a half-point or so.
So what causes odds to change? Well, any number of things. Sometimes, though, it’s the simplest answer — a big bet.
This brings us to the case of the Cleveland Browns’ Super Bowl odds at the MGM Resorts International sports books in Nevada. Cleveland, once 200-to-1 to win the title, is now 30-to-1 at the MGM books, according to David Purdum of BettingTalk.com.
MGM oddsmaker Jay Rood told Betting Talk that a “four figure” wager on the Browns last week caused MGM to slash its odds from 100-to-1 all way down to 30-to-1. Also, Rood indicated to Betting Talk that wagering on the Browns had picked up since the draft, when the Browns made a major splash by selecting quarterback Johnny Manziel No. 22 overall.
It’s important to note that future book odds — especially with long shots like Cleveland — can be more a reflection of the sports book’s potential liability on the team than anything else. In the end, oddsmakers have to adjust prices to manage risk. And not every Las Vegas sports book has the Browns that low of a price, as Betting Talk notes.
Nevertheless, it’s fascinating to think that somewhere out there, someone is holding a Browns ticket that will pay six figures if Cleveland wins its all.
Believeland, indeed.
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So was it a Browns fan that is in love with Johnny
Or an Aggie fan that is now a "Browns fan"
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Uh, lost money. Rookies don't win Superbowls. Not Elway, not Brady, Not Brees, Not Manning. Etc. Someone just tossed their money away. A better bet would have been to take the over on # games won and a smaller wager for the whole shooting match just for fun.
I personally think the best bet out there is the Bucs to win 7 games (or more) with an experienced QB amd 3 receivers 6'5" on the field at the same time plus an excellent defensive minded HC in Lovie Smith.
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Uh, lost money. Rookies don't win Superbowls. Not Elway, not Brady, Not Brees, Not Manning. Etc. Someone just tossed their money away. A better bet would have been to take the over on # games won and a smaller wager for the whole shooting match just for fun.
I personally think the best bet out there is the Bucs to win 7 games (or more) with an experienced QB amd 3 receivers 6'5" on the field at the same time plus an excellent defensive minded HC in Lovie Smith.
Are you kidding? We have Johnny Football. We have the best chance of anyone this century to win with a rookie QB. That is if he startsUh, lost money. Rookies don't win Superbowls. Not Elway, not Brady, Not Brees, Not Manning. Etc. Someone just tossed their money away. A better bet would have been to take the over on # games won and a smaller wager for the whole shooting match just for fun.
I personally think the best bet out there is the Bucs to win 7 games (or more) with an experienced QB amd 3 receivers 6'5" on the field at the same time plus an excellent defensive minded HC in Lovie Smith.
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Hmmmm....
Last week we were long odds....
This week we are medium odds...
Who do we know who has a lot of money and was in Vegas over the weekend?
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Hmmmm....
Last week we were long odds....
This week we are medium odds...
Who do we know who has a lot of money and was in Vegas over the weekend?
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Don't even hint there Tour2
. Just remember what happened to Alex Karras and Art Schlicter.Ouch! -
Don't even hint there Tour2
. Just remember what happened to Alex Karras and Art Schlicter.Ouch!Don't even hint there Tour2
. Just remember what happened to Alex Karras and Art Schlicter.Ouch!Not to mention Paul "Golden Boy" Hornung...
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only a 4 figure bet made it change that much?
must have been the only bet wagered on the browns.
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only a 4 figure bet made it change that much?
must have been the only bet wagered on the browns.
only a 4 figure bet made it change that much?
must have been the only bet wagered on the browns.
Exactly! How does a single $1,000 - $9,999 bet make the odds that much different?
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going to vegas in august.
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I bet 100 on them.
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good thing I signed over the title to my hours before the odds changed huh?
WSS
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It's too bad this isn't like the Auburn fan who put $50 on Auburn to win the 2013-2014 National Championship halfway through 2012-2013 season when they were 1000-1 and it nearly paid out $50,000.
Poor guy had too much pride to take the free ~$25,000, ended up winning nothing.
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pride schmide.
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Exactly! How does a single $1,000 - $9,999 bet make the odds that much different?
Small pool of total money bet thus far.
Just as in handicapping a race, e.g., horses, dogs, only the initial odds are set by the bookmaker's expert(s). Thereafter the betting pattern determines the movement of the odds.
Assume $5000 was the bet at 200:1. Payout would be ~$900,000 (depending on the vigorish; normally 10%). Right now the pool is likely way less than that payout so the Browns' odds are slashed to dissuade anymore bets on us until the pool is built up. It's likely other teams' odds were adjusted downward to attract counterbalancing bets. Won't be the last time the odds are changed.
When all is said and done, the ideal pool would have equal payouts for all 32 teams leaving the bookmaker with "the vig", 10% of the total amount of the final pool, as profit.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Exactly! How does a single $1,000 - $9,999 bet make the odds that much different?
Small pool of total money bet thus far.
Just as in handicapping a race, e.g., horses, dogs, only the initial odds are set by the bookmaker's expert(s). Thereafter the betting pattern determines the movement of the odds.
Assume $5000 was the bet at 200:1. Payout would be ~$900,000 (depending on the vigorish; normally 10%). Right now the pool is likely way less than that payout so the Browns' odds are slashed to dissuade anymore bets on us until the pool is built up. It's likely other teams' odds were adjusted downward to attract counterbalancing bets. Won't be the last time the odds are changed.
When all is said and done, the ideal pool would have equal payouts for all 32 teams leaving the bookmaker with "the vig", 10% of the total amount of the final pool, as profit.
Small pool of total money bet thus far.
Just as in handicapping a race, e.g., horses, dogs, only the initial odds are set by the bookmaker's expert(s). Thereafter the betting pattern determines the movement of the odds.
Assume $5000 was the bet at 200:1. Payout would be ~$900,000 (depending on the vigorish; normally 10%). Right now the pool is likely way less than that payout so the Browns' odds are slashed to dissuade anymore bets on us until the pool is built up. It's likely other teams' odds were adjusted downward to attract counterbalancing bets. Won't be the last time the odds are changed.
When all is said and done, the ideal pool would have equal payouts for all 32 teams leaving the bookmaker with "the vig", 10% of the total amount of the final pool, as profit.
Thanks for the breakdown. To a layman it seems like a giant jump for a smaller sizes bet.
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I'll be in Vegas at the end of August... I probably will lose out on awesome odds however with it being the last week of preseason there should be better clarity.
Probably throw $50 on the Browns and $150 on the Packers winning it all. Colts are a team that depending on the odds I may place a bet on as well.
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