Trading up to #5 unlikely
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I just started thinking about the history of this kind of move. Someone mentioned K2 but that was only to move up one spot. Of course there was the Ricky William/Dikta fiasco.
I was thinking of a move like the Jets and the Browns....A circumstance where a team moves up to a top 5 spot from a mid to late first round slot. It just seems to never happen.
Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote! - "Ben Franklin" -
@inspecta said:
Well that's our nightmare scenario right there. Who would you take at that point? The crazy samoan from USC? Another LB pick. Wells?If that does in fact play out then we are really effed at that 5 pick.....
I think there is almost no chance that crabtree / curry / raji are gone by the 5th pick. And people will trade up for any of those 3.
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I just started thinking about the history of this kind of move. Someone mentioned K2 but that was only to move up one spot. Of course there was the Ricky William/Dikta fiasco.
I was thinking of a move like the Jets and the Browns....A circumstance where a team moves up to a top 5 spot from a mid to late first round slot. It just seems to never happen.
oldcow1945 said:
I just started thinking about the history of this kind of move. Someone mentioned K2 but that was only to move up one spot. Of course there was the Ricky William/Dikta fiasco.I was thinking of a move like the Jets and the Browns....A circumstance where a team moves up to a top 5 spot from a mid to late first round slot. It just seems to never happen.
No, it isn't that common...teams near the top don't mind trading, but usually not to the bottom of the draft...and the cost to the other team is great since their 1st rounder doesn't hold a comparative value.
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@inspecta said:
Well that's our nightmare scenario right there. Who would you take at that point? The crazy samoan from USC? Another LB pick. Wells?If that does in fact play out then we are really effed at that 5 pick.....
I think there is almost no chance that crabtree / curry / raji are gone by the 5th pick. And people will trade up for any of those 3.
AdaM said:
I think there is almost no chance that crabtree / curry / raji are gone by the 5th pick. And people will trade up for any of those 3.Do you really think so? Who do you think would want to trade up for those three guys?
If they did want to I don;t think the browns would get much in return. That team's 1st and 3rd maybe? In this deep draft I'm not sure a team would want to give up their thiird round pick to move up five or twn spots
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Here is a pretty good site if anybody wants to dig to find out answers about this or anything else about the NFL draft.
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AdaM said:
I think there is almost no chance that crabtree / curry / raji are gone by the 5th pick. And people will trade up for any of those 3.Do you really think so? Who do you think would want to trade up for those three guys?
If they did want to I don;t think the browns would get much in return. That team's 1st and 3rd maybe? In this deep draft I'm not sure a team would want to give up their thiird round pick to move up five or twn spots
oldcow1945 said:
Do you really think so? Who do you think would want to trade up for those three guys?If they did want to I don;t think the browns would get much in return. That team's 1st and 3rd maybe? In this deep draft I'm not sure a team would want to give up their thiird round pick to move up five or twn spots
We won't know until it happens.
But there are 32 teams (most with needs) drafting. Any team has a chance to get the urge and trade up to make sure they get the guy they believe will put them over the top.
My feeling is, if Curry is gone, but crabtree or raji is there you pick either.
If none of the 3 are on the board, we have a good chance of trading down.
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AdaM said:
Class is too LB heavy to worry about that. If curry is gone, we'll trade down.I hope you're right It will be one of Mangini's first true tests...
I hope you're right It will be one of Mangini's first true tests...
One thing you have to remember, it takes two to make a trade. Just because Mangini/Kokinis would want to trade down, they would need a partner. You can't say the guy failed because he couldn't trade down. Savage was the one that left him with 4 picks and screwed us with Anderson's contract and a tight cap figure.
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oldcow1945 said:
Do you really think so? Who do you think would want to trade up for those three guys?If they did want to I don;t think the browns would get much in return. That team's 1st and 3rd maybe? In this deep draft I'm not sure a team would want to give up their thiird round pick to move up five or twn spots
We won't know until it happens.
But there are 32 teams (most with needs) drafting. Any team has a chance to get the urge and trade up to make sure they get the guy they believe will put them over the top.
My feeling is, if Curry is gone, but crabtree or raji is there you pick either.
If none of the 3 are on the board, we have a good chance of trading down.
AdaM said:
We won't know until it happens.But there are 32 teams (most with needs) drafting. Any team has a chance to get the urge and trade up to make sure they get the guy they believe will put them over the top.
My feeling is, if Curry is gone, but crabtree or raji is there you pick either.
If none of the 3 are on the board, we have a good chance of trading down.
Ok....I just thought you may have specific teams due to needs that you thought would be interested.
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the only reason to draft raji is to use him as trade bate. if we do that and nobody wants to give up too much then we will be stuck with him.
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I think you guys are a little too focused on LB and needs.
If Kokins and Mangini go in to drafts thinking "this" position or nothing, we will suck and be looking for a new coach and GM a few years down the road.
Bank it.
Improving in your worst area's is the only way to get better. If we don't go LB and do some stupid stuff like.. RG,WR,QB, ect we'll be much worse off.
I think the mentality he needs is LB or nothing. If Curry is gone, trade down and get an ADDITIONAL good LB prospect instead of picking the BPA which won't suit the immediate needs.
AdaM said:
Improving in your worst area's is the only way to get better. If we don't go LB and do some stupid stuff like.. RG,WR,QB, ect we'll be much worse off.I think the mentality he needs is LB or nothing. If Curry is gone, trade down and get an ADDITIONAL good LB prospect instead of picking the BPA which won't suit the immediate needs.
Winning teams draft the best player available. Teams that consistently reach for needs often pay the price. Example, Willie Green was a reach because we needed a RB and passed on LT the year before. Wimbley was a reach because everyone said we needed a pass rusher.
When teams know you are desparate for a need, you reduce your chances of making a good trade down.
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the only reason to draft raji is to use him as trade bate. if we do that and nobody wants to give up too much then we will be stuck with him.
the only reason to draft raji is to use him as trade bate. if we do that and nobody wants to give up too much then we will be stuck with him.
How do you think our Defense ranks with Rogers off the field? Imagine having a fresh Raji / Rogers every down...
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the only reason to draft raji is to use him as trade bate. if we do that and nobody wants to give up too much then we will be stuck with him.
How do you think our Defense ranks with Rogers off the field? Imagine having a fresh Raji / Rogers every down...
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With a guy like Crabtree or any player at #5, you are going to need TWO teams with a pretty desperate need for him for one to be willing to trade ahead of the other to get a shot at drafting him.
I just don't see two teams close behind the Browns that would be willing to give up much to get him.
The only scenerio I can think of like that is the Jets wanting to move ahead of the Niners to grab Sanchez becasue both teams need a QB pretty badly.
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This team has IMMEDIATE holes...and SOON TO BE holes that need filling...and there are PLENTY of options at #5...just not sexy.
ILB - Curry
CB/S - Jenkins (Jones may be gone...and Jenkins flexibility gives us depth at 2 positions for the price of 1 pick)
WR - Crabtree (Edwards is an UFA after 2009)
OT - Monroe/Smith/Smith/Oher (Shaffer isn't getting it done...and Tucker is old and coming off injury)
DT - Raji (most likely trade bait..but a rotation of Rogers and Raji would be dominant)
DE - Peria Jerry/Tyson Jackson (we don't have a true DE...I know this is high...but Jerry is rising in a lot of mocks)
OLB - Orakpo/Brown (is Hall/Wimbley really worth waiting on?)
RB - Wells/Moreno ( I don't like picking RB's this high either, but it IS a need)
The only players I would discount at #5 are:
QB - we are hoping to get OVER a QB controversy
LT - JT is our guy
TE - do I need to say why?
C - just isn't that quality
G - just isn't that quality
Anyway...the fact that we would probably BE WILLING to draft any of these guys is actually going to work in our favor. Other teams can't know where we are going...and so are more likely to be concerned we will take THEIR GUY.
I still think we end up picking Curry at #5. A lot of people talk about Pioli taking Curry at #3...but you have to remember the Chiefs are moving to a 3-4 defense:
Kansas City announced its coaching staff this week. What it didn’t announce is that the Chiefs are planning to switch to a 3-4 defense.
Under the guidance of new defensive coaches Clancy Pendergast and Gary Gibbs, the Chiefs are turning to the defense that has done so well for Pittsburgh and is back in vogue in the NFL. The Chiefs are going 3-4.
Now Kansas City is going to have to tailor its personnel accordingly. But what is most intriguing and mysterious about it is where last year’s first-round pick, defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, fits in. Dorsey might not be stout enough to play nose tackle in a 3-4, and he might not be big enough to play end in that style of defense.
One year after becoming Kansas City’s top pick, there now are questions about Dorsey’s role.
But the changes now are coming fast and furious in Kansas City, mainly on defense.
So I see them taking Raji.
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AdaM said:
I think there is almost no chance that crabtree / curry / raji are gone by the 5th pick. And people will trade up for any of those 3.Do you really think so? Who do you think would want to trade up for those three guys?
If they did want to I don;t think the browns would get much in return. That team's 1st and 3rd maybe? In this deep draft I'm not sure a team would want to give up their thiird round pick to move up five or twn spots
oldcow1945 said:
Do you really think so? Who do you think would want to trade up for those three guys?If they did want to I don;t think the browns would get much in return. That team's 1st and 3rd maybe? In this deep draft I'm not sure a team would want to give up their thiird round pick to move up five or twn spots
San Fran has talked about trading up for Sanchez because they are afraid that a team like Minn or the Jets may trade up in front of them. SF wants a QB to build their franchise around and wil make a run at Leinhart, but I don't think that will happen.
Philly wants a premier WR and very well could be a trade partner if Crabtree is still their.
Their are teams that could fall in love with Jenkins or one of the premier LTs.
Your return on the trade would depend on how far you trade down and also how bad you want out of the position.
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we can sell raji to denver if KC doesn't take him because they'll likely want to pick up a stud NT because green bay will likely take him at nine if they can and we can also sell cinci as a team that would be interested in adding a DT. we can also market him to green bay with the threat of a denver trade.
we can sell crabtree because oakland will take him at seven, jacksonville could be an option at eight and san fran could take him at ten in the unlikely event he falls that far, and chicago at 18, tampa at 19 and philly at 21 are all options, especially because philly has an extra first rounder so they can afford to give up later picks.
what's glen dorsey going to bring if the chiefs trade him? he's got essentially no value in the 3-4.
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@inspecta said:
I think crabtree is the only suitable non LB pick to make at 5 if we stay there.nobody likes raji? that guy is a beast williams rogers raji id love it
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@inspecta said:
I think crabtree is the only suitable non LB pick to make at 5 if we stay there.nobody likes raji? that guy is a beast williams rogers raji id love it
nmills said:
nobody likes raji? that guy is a beast williams rogers raji id love itit's not that i don't like him, it's that we don't need him. we have an all-pro noseguard. let's face it the only 3 positions we don't need are noseguard, long snapper and kick returner.
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nmills said:
nobody likes raji? that guy is a beast williams rogers raji id love itit's not that i don't like him, it's that we don't need him. we have an all-pro noseguard. let's face it the only 3 positions we don't need are noseguard, long snapper and kick returner.
it's not that i don't like him, it's that we don't need him. we have an all-pro noseguard. let's face it the only 3 positions we don't need are noseguard, long snapper and kick returner.
but him beside rogers and williams. that help your pass rush and run stopping ability right there then pick up a LB in the second
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it's not that i don't like him, it's that we don't need him. we have an all-pro noseguard. let's face it the only 3 positions we don't need are noseguard, long snapper and kick returner.
but him beside rogers and williams. that help your pass rush and run stopping ability right there then pick up a LB in the second
nmills said:
but him beside rogers and williams. that help your pass rush and run stopping ability right there then pick up a LB in the secondFirst of all...Raji is a NT. Rogers is a NT. Williams has yet to prove he is a legit 3-4 DE. So putting the 3 of them across the DL is not even an option.
Now, if you want to ROTATE Raji and Rogers...that is another thing...but we have Rubin for that...and he is getting better every game.
Raji just isn't a real viable option for us. DE's need far more side to side mobility than he can give...so it is a mute point.
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