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Top 10 prospects....who falls or rises?

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  • MudflyM Mudfly

    Here are the last 10 years worth of top 10 picks.....so the last 100 - Top 10 picks by position.....

    OT = 16

    QB = 15

    WR = 13

    CB = 12

    OLB= 10

    DE = 9

    RB = 8

    DT = 8

    And everyone else = 9 (TE - S - OG/C - ILB)

    @mudfly said:

    Here are the last 10 years worth of top 10 picks.....so the last 100 - Top 10 picks by position.....

    OT = 16

    QB = 15

    WR = 13

    CB = 12

    OLB= 10

    DE = 9

    RB = 8

    DT = 8

    And everyone else = 9 (TE - S - OG/C - ILB)

    I'd be curious to see a breakdown of success/bust rates there.

    MudflyM 1 Reply

  • OLD GREGORY IS FALLING AS OF RIGHT NOW DUE TO FAILED DRUG TEST AT THE COMBINE AND OTHER OFF FIELD ISSUES STARTING TO SURFACE.

  • gftChrisG gftChris

    @mudfly said:

    Here are the last 10 years worth of top 10 picks.....so the last 100 - Top 10 picks by position.....

    OT = 16

    QB = 15

    WR = 13

    CB = 12

    OLB= 10

    DE = 9

    RB = 8

    DT = 8

    And everyone else = 9 (TE - S - OG/C - ILB)

    I'd be curious to see a breakdown of success/bust rates there.

    @gftchris said:

    I'd be curious to see a breakdown of success/bust rates there.

    I can help you some(in general terms)....in that the first round historically has only about a 30% success rate(quality starters).....and the top 10 does not comp any higher than the rest of the round(meaning it's also about 30% too)(league wide)......

    some years are just bad.....a good example would be 2013....go back and look at that first round(wow!).....suddenly Mingo looks pretty good actually......and if you look at the other LB's taken that year, you will see Mingo is easily the best....

    So, maybe the Browns didnt really mess that pick up as badly as people like to say....cause there just weren't any good players(or LB's) that year....

    so....much as they love to malign us for bad picks....really....we are very close to the 30% average that all teams seem to experience...

  • Here is list I pirated of first round picks(by position) who have made at least one Pro-Bowl.....List covers the 320 players taken in the last 10 years....

    Quarterbacks: 9 of 30 = 30.0 percent................Quinn, Weeden, Manziel

    Running Backs: 8 of 27 = 29.6 percent..............Richardson

    Wide Receivers: 10 of 37 = 27.0 percent...........Edwards

    Tight Ends: 7 of 13 = 53.8 percent

    Offensive Tackles: 8 of 37 = 21.6 percent.........Thomas

    Centers: 3 of 7 = 42.8 percent............................Mack

    Guards: 3 of 7 = 42.8 percent

    Defensive Ends: 7 of 41 = 17.0 percent

    Defensive Tackles: 8 of 33 = 24.2 percent........Taylor

    Linebackers: 13 of 32 = 40.6 percent................Wimbley, Mingo

    Cornerbacks: 13 of 39 = 33.3 percent...............Haden, Gilbert

    Safeties: 9 of 16 = 56.2 percent

    So, thats 98 players out of 320 who made a single Pro-bowl.....or 31%....

    Note: Defensive ends and tackles seem to have the highest failure rate(by far)......oy

  • and Ill take it one further for ya with the Browns.....over the last 10 years, we have selected 12 players in the first round...

    We are just ABOVE the 31% average with our 4 pro bowlers.....Haden, Thomas, Mack and Edwards....

    and also above the average with 7 confirmed starter quality players(the above 4, plus...) Taylor, Wimbley and Mingo

    and, as of now, we only have 2 complete busts in Quinn and Richardson....(weeden isnt good, but is playing and is serviceable)...

    and still have 2 other picks who are too early in their careers to judge.....but IF Gilbert or Manziel pan out....we get pushed even higher above the average...

    and IF they fail....we are still above the league average for the last 10 years........

    All I can say is the numbers dont lie.....

  • in no order:

    Winston (QB)

    Mariota (QB)

    Fowler (DE/OLB)

    L. Williams (DE/DT)

    Beasley (OLB)

    K. White (WR)

    Dupree (DE/OLB)

    Shelton (NT)

    T. Waynes (CB)

    Scherff (OT)

    I got a feeling Shane Ray or Amari Cooper fall to us. Wish Beasley fell to us though, he's beginning to look more like the real deal to me. I'd take Amari Cooper.

  • why would the bucs take either QB that high when they have the 25th ranked OL? isn't this just a recipe to get a young QB killed ala tim couch?

    they should be trading down and picking OL and maybe trying for a hundley later on.

  • Would love for Jameis to fall to us.

  • W wargograw

    Would love for Jameis to fall to us.

    @wargograw said:

    Would love for Jameis to fall to us.

    psst... you're up in our mock draft.

  • Top Ten locks I see include: 2 QBs + 2 WR + 1 DT + 3 DE/OLB = 8 total

    So who gets pulled up into the 2 last spots?

    I think 2 more pass-rushing OLBs with Gregory sticking at #9 and Dupree rising to #10. It's the year of the pass rusher and there's not another group that is so deep in quality talent.

    Scherff has already fallen, but I see no reason why he does not fall a little further and out of the top ten. It wasn't long ago he was hyped as a potential #1 overall... although why is beyond me. In addition to being rawer than raw he also almost universally projected to move inside and top ten OGs are a rare breed.

    Bold Prediction: No OT will go in the Top Ten this year.

    Because he's a C/OG Cam Erving has a shot of going top ten, but chances are not good.

    Shelton has a shot as well, but run-stuffing does not trump pass-rushing.

    "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
    MudflyM 1 Reply

  • Scherff will go in the top ten. New York Giant won't pass on him. The Bucs will be taking Winston and Mariota won't get passed the Jets. I have a feeling Chip Kelly will try to trade up with the Jets.

    Would the Browns take Cam Erving at 19. Cuz I've heard the Broncos and Patriots are interested. If we can't get Shelton then get a wide receiver and Eddie Goldman or Malcom Brown.

    DAMN THE TORPEDOES! FULL SPEED AHEAD!
  • Tour2maT Tour2ma

    Top Ten locks I see include: 2 QBs + 2 WR + 1 DT + 3 DE/OLB = 8 total

    So who gets pulled up into the 2 last spots?

    I think 2 more pass-rushing OLBs with Gregory sticking at #9 and Dupree rising to #10. It's the year of the pass rusher and there's not another group that is so deep in quality talent.

    Scherff has already fallen, but I see no reason why he does not fall a little further and out of the top ten. It wasn't long ago he was hyped as a potential #1 overall... although why is beyond me. In addition to being rawer than raw he also almost universally projected to move inside and top ten OGs are a rare breed.

    Bold Prediction: No OT will go in the Top Ten this year.

    Because he's a C/OG Cam Erving has a shot of going top ten, but chances are not good.

    Shelton has a shot as well, but run-stuffing does not trump pass-rushing.

    @tour2ma said:

    @tour2ma said:

    I think 2 more pass-rushing OLBs with Gregory sticking at #9 and Dupree rising to #10. It's the year of the pass rusher and there's not another group that is so deep in quality talent.

    Bold Prediction: No OT will go in the Top Ten this year.

    You think Gregory will stick?.....even now that he's in the drug program?......I pity the GM that picks him if he fails another test

    Wow......That is bold....Im shocked......that would be fairly unprecedented in the last decade or so, wouldnt it?....and with such a strong class? ......I'll take that bet(not that there was a bet to take, but you know, ha!).........

  • lol... It's not that bold, if:

    • you don't see the OT group being that strong... and I don't... at least not relative to the pass rush group; and
    • you look at the needs of the first ten teams... none have a specific LT need high on their list.
    However, Fisher's a late push up the board gives me a little pause only two days later. He may well propel the group as a whole higher.

    As for Gregory... just a feeling that someone will deem him worth the risk once the run on the skill starts.

    "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196

  • Gregory still on the board at 19 after somehow we get Shelton with first pick and Harold is only D man left on the board. Wow it's going to be tough to pass on Gregory except for TheNews?? OL or WR??

    Browns & Buffett: Got to go fishin, Down to rock bottom again, with just a few Friends
  • gumby73G gumby73

    Gregory still on the board at 19 after somehow we get Shelton with first pick and Harold is only D man left on the board. Wow it's going to be tough to pass on Gregory except for TheNews?? OL or WR??

    @gumby73 said:

    Gregory still on the board at 19 after somehow we get Shelton with first pick and Harold is only D man left on the board. Wow it's going to be tough to pass on Gregory except for TheNews?? OL or WR??

    Not tough to pass up if you've watch him play.

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