The Benefits of Taking a Spread QB?
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There are two very interesting studies on numberFire about the success of spread quarterbacks in the NFL. They took all quarterbacks taken in the first two rounds since 2000 and analyzed their careers to glean which type of QB's operated better. All of this data is based on numberFire's internal statistic - the Net Expected Points. Extremely broadly, each situation has a value and each outcome has a value. A QB's NEP is calculated by subtracting the outcome of the play from the situation.
They lumped these QB's into two categories - precision and vertical. Precision based QB's are QB's that came from systems that featured precision based routes - your spread QB's. Vertical QB's are QB's that came from more pro style oriented offenses.
Basically, this study has found two things:
1) "Precision" (read: spread) college quarterbacks taken in rounds 1 or 2 are significantly less valuable to their teams and have significantly shorter periods in their careers where they positively contribute.
2) Spread and read-option QB's that are asked to adapt to a vertical game are MUCH more successful than vertical QB's who are asked to switch to a spread style offense in the pros. Granted, the strongest performers have been vertical QB's who then went to a vertical type offenses (think Andrew Luck).
So, while the most ideal scenario, obviously, is to take an exceptional vertical style QB and transition him to your vertical NFL offense, it's of note that precision (spread) QB's also end up transitioning well to the vertical game.
However, it's something to note that the Browns current offense features more WC themes than anything else, therefore I'd consider it more of a precision based offense than a vertical - and spread QB's that go to precision NFL offenses don't do well (RG3 and Manziel).
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4482/can-a-college-spread-quarterback-survive-in-the-nfl
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A. Do we know what type of system Fillipo is going to run? Are you sure it is WCO
And I am not sure I agree that the WCO is akin to a spread offense.
B. Aren't there very few NFL team running spreads, really?
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A. Do we know what type of system Fillipo is going to run? Are you sure it is WCO
And I am not sure I agree that the WCO is akin to a spread offense.
B. Aren't there very few NFL team running spreads, really?
A. Do we know what type of system Fillipo is going to run? Are you sure it is WCO
And I am not sure I agree that the WCO is akin to a spread offense.
B. Aren't there very few NFL team running spreads, really?
It's akin to the spread offense in the confines of that study (i.e. precision vs. vertical), where the common theme of the offense is to work the defense horizontally with precision rather than vertically with brute force. WCO fits in this mold by featuring quick slants, spacing routes, PA boots, zone blocking, etc. - methods that capitalize on the theme of working sideline to sideline, finding creases and creating space.
From what I've read thus far, it seems like Flip is keeping many aspects from Shanny's offense and using them to slowly transition into his offense - which is more of a gap and power blocking, vertical offense - similar to Arians (I believe).
So I'd expect our offense to look more like Shanny's than Flip's as the season starts out, with a slow progression into more of his philosophies.
About NFL teams running the spread, see above. This wasn't a "spread vs. pro" study, because there are many different variations of each, it was "precision vs. vertical" study. Think a Chud vs. Shanny argument.
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A. Do we know what type of system Fillipo is going to run? Are you sure it is WCO
And I am not sure I agree that the WCO is akin to a spread offense.
B. Aren't there very few NFL team running spreads, really?
It's akin to the spread offense in the confines of that study (i.e. precision vs. vertical), where the common theme of the offense is to work the defense horizontally with precision rather than vertically with brute force. WCO fits in this mold by featuring quick slants, spacing routes, PA boots, zone blocking, etc. - methods that capitalize on the theme of working sideline to sideline, finding creases and creating space.
From what I've read thus far, it seems like Flip is keeping many aspects from Shanny's offense and using them to slowly transition into his offense - which is more of a gap and power blocking, vertical offense - similar to Arians (I believe).
So I'd expect our offense to look more like Shanny's than Flip's as the season starts out, with a slow progression into more of his philosophies.
About NFL teams running the spread, see above. This wasn't a "spread vs. pro" study, because there are many different variations of each, it was "precision vs. vertical" study. Think a Chud vs. Shanny argument.
It's akin to the spread offense in the confines of that study (i.e. precision vs. vertical), where the common theme of the offense is to work the defense horizontally with precision rather than vertically with brute force. WCO fits in this mold by featuring quick slants, spacing routes, PA boots, zone blocking, etc. - methods that capitalize on the theme of working sideline to sideline, finding creases and creating space.
From what I've read thus far, it seems like Flip is keeping many aspects from Shanny's offense and using them to slowly transition into his offense - which is more of a gap and power blocking, vertical offense - similar to Arians (I believe).
So I'd expect our offense to look more like Shanny's than Flip's as the season starts out, with a slow progression into more of his philosophies.
About NFL teams running the spread, see above. This wasn't a "spread vs. pro" study, because there are many different variations of each, it was "precision vs. vertical" study. Think a Chud vs. Shanny argument.
OK, good explanation of it. Its just that the WCO has/had been in vogue so much in the NFL that you think of it as a "Pro style" offense....where the college "spread" is not so in vogue. But the focus of the WCO on the precision horizontal routes I guess does make it more akin to the "spread".
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Trent Dilfer just unveiled an really interesting take on NFL Live.
Basically he said that for months he had been breaking down tape in vain trying to find a way to predict successful college QB translation to the NFL. He said the compounded effects of the wider college hash marks, the spread, the read option and tempo have turned college QBs into throwers. Evaluating the bulk of their play was a waste of time. The exception was goal-to-goal situations against the most talented teams.
In goal-to-goal situations field compression neutralized field, scheme and tempo differences enough to evaluate pro readiness. He offered these breakdowns vs. Power 5 opponents for Winston, Luck, Wilson, Mariotta, Griffith and Manziel.
- QB --- JW - AL - RW - MM - RG - JM
%Cmplt: 64 - 85 - 100 - 44 -- 30 -- 40
TD/INT : 9-0 15-0 9-0 -- 9-0 - 3-1 - 5-2
RushTD: 2 --- 1 --- 4 ---- 5 ---- 6 ---- 6
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