Cleveland Browns Rumors: Ray Rice Signed if Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West Struggle?

[Zombo]

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

-So Faulk's toe injury is a perfectly fine excuse for a down season, but Rice's hip injury isn't?

-Campbell still bounced back for 1300 yards and 12 TD's the next season. You asked for an RB who came back to be a stud, Campbell was a stud the following season.

-It also could have been that Buffalo just wasn't utilizing Lynch correctly, or that Lynch was hurt, or he just wasn't an effective cold weather RB. Could have been any contributing factor, still doesn't change that he slumped and then experienced a resurgence.

Here's more:

-Matt Forte had a sub 1000 yard, 3.6 YPC season sandwiched between two 1000+ yard 4+ YPC seasons.

-Edgerrin James had a sub 1000 yard, 3.6 YPC season after two 1500+ yard seasons, then followed it up with five 1200 yard plus seasons.

-Ricky Williams smoked his way to Canada and came back for 1100 yards at age 30.

-Jim Brown had a sub 1,000 yard season smashed in the middle of seven 1200+ yard seasons. His 4.3 YPC that season was a full yard below his career average. I'd say a 4.3 YPC season for Browns is akin to a 3.1 YPC season for Rice (which is one of the strongest compliments I can muster for Brown)

-Warrick Dunn had two garbage years and an injury riddled year after his Pro Bowl 2000 season. He then came back to rush for 1100+ yards three years in a row after that.

-Ricky Watters had a sub 900 yard season, then rushed for 1200+ yards 6 our of the next seven years.

-John Riggins had a 500 yard season after his Pro Bowl year, then came back and rushed for 1000+ yards four different times - three times after he hit 30.

The signing of Rice wouldn't be for a 300 carry, 2,000 yard, 10 year workhorse runningback. Those backs are few and far between in today's NFL as it is - I can name two.

Rice would be for a complement to Johnson if Crow and West struggle, as clearly stated in the title of the thread. And, as a complement, Rice brings a wealth of talent and experience to the backfield. Runningbacks deteriorate faster than any other position, I get that. But on paper, a 28 year old Ray Rice is still a better option than a 23 year old Terrance West. And if West struggles in camp, Rice would also be a better option on the field as well.

Marcus Allen played for 16 years and was a six-time Pro Bowler...and he broke the 1,000 yard mark only once in his career. I'd take an Allen level production on 1st and 2nd down from Rice over the next three years.

People sometimes overvalue our players based off of a small sample size/draft position/where the guy grew up. A Terrance West level of production from an RB for another team wouldn't warrant much talk around here. I'm excited for their potential, because they are both wonderful steals...but being a steal doesn't necessarily equal on-field success.

Assuming that Rice's 2009 season was his peak (5.3 YPC), a Ray Rice at 75% (4 YPC) is still more productive than West...and just about as productive as Crowell.

I agree that it wouldn't make sense to take Rice if Crow and West have even mediocre offseasons - which they seem to be having. But if West continues to struggle in the other facets of the position that don't involve carrying the ball, or if Crowell continues to fumble...then signing Rice as a complement for Johnson would be a no-brainer.

Either way, the argument was that Rice would be the fourth RB on our roster...which is a complete and utter fallacy. Taking career averages, he'd clearly be the first. By experience, he'd clearly be the first. By YPC, he'd be the first. Even going by potential, he'd still be ahead of West...and probably Crowell.

My opinion is that he has jumped the shark. You are welcome to disagree, and I see you have taken that route. Which is fine. But you are eventually going to find out that I was right, and here's why:

These running backs at the elite level only have so many hits they can take before they start to decline. Every once in awhile there is a Curtis Martin that is playing his best ball at 30, but that is rare.

Rice is 28, he has 1430 NFL carries and 369 receptions. He had another 910 college carries and 37 receptions. So, 2,746 times he has been the man with the ball with everyone trying to kill him ... that's a lot of hits.

He is 5'9" 195 lbs. That is a small back to take that kind of beating. Between 2010 and 2011 alone, he carried the ball 598 times, and was thrown to another 187 times.

Kudos to Baltimore for getting the most possible out of him. But why do you want to be the team that gets the aftermath?

Pro Football Reference lists "similar players" who are players that have had similar careers of length and quality. Here are Rice's matches:

Billy Sims, Gale Sayers, Jamaal Charles, William Andrews, Terrell Davis, Robert Smith, Abner Haynes, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Deuce McAllister

So let's take a look at when they "jumped the shark":

Billy Sims, Done at 29

Gale Sayers*, Done at 28, last good season at 26

Jamaal Charles Going strong at 28

William Andrews, Done at 28 (failed comeback at 31)

Terrell Davis, Done at 29, last good season at 26

Robert Smith, Done at 28

Abner Haynes, done at 30, last good year at 27

Arian Foster, Going strong at 28

LeSean McCoy, going strong at 26

Deuce McAllister, Done at 30, last good year at 28

Here are additional guys that they list as "similar careers through six years"

O.J. Simpson, Done at 32, last good year at 29

Clinton Portis, Done at 29, last good year at 27

Freeman McNeil, Done at 33, last good year at 29

Marcus Allen, Done at 37

Mark van Eeghen, Done at 31, last good year at 28

Adrian Peterson, Going strong through 28

Ricky Williams, Done at 34 , last good year at 32

So, Sims, Sayers, Andres, Davis, Smith, Hayes, Mcallister, Simpson, Portis, McNeil and Van Eeghan ... 11 guys shot by age 29

Allen & Williams ... 2 Guys effective at 29 and beyond.

2 out of 13 completed careers

Charles, Foster, McCoy and Peterson ... going strong ... odds are they start tailing off soon, but there could be a Marcus Allen in the bunch

So what kind of candidate is Rice to be an Allen and not a typical guy that is done by 29 (next year)?

Well let's look at his career arc:

2011 24 BAL 291 carries 1364 yards 12 TDs 4.7 ypc

2012 25 BAL 257 carries 1143 yards 9 TDs 4.4 ypc

2013 26 BAL 214 carries 660 yards 4 TDs 3.1 ypc

Dropoff from 24 to 25.

Dramatic dropoff from 25 to 26

This is your candidate to flourish at 28?

So if you take into account all factors: History (15 % of similar backs were effective after his current age), size (much smaller than the average of all these backs), injury (injured hip his last season), and production (dramatic dropoff over last two seasons) I'm going to go ahead and say he's a risky proposition.

So you are the Browns and you look at this guy's last season and current age compared to what you have on the roster:

Player A (Crow), Age 22, 148 att 607 yds 4 Tds 4.1 ypc

Player B (West) Age 24, 171 att 673 yds 4 Tds 3.9 ypc

Player C (Rice) Age 28, 214 att 660 yds 4 Tds 3.1 ypc

Player D (Johnson) Age 21, 3rd round pick

So you got the guy with 1,430 carries of tread on the tire who is 4-7 years older than the other three guys and was less productive in his last season than the two that played last year.

Three developing backs, all healthy and young, two of whom produced as rookies in an offense with not much of a passing game to scare anyone.

Player A is only 22 and showed great promise as a rookie. Player B was drafted in the third round last year and may not have even tapped his potential yet. Player C is expected to come right in and be the "lightning" back. Player D was once great, but has taken a lot of hits, had his numbers decline dramatically for consecutive years and is at an age where NFL backs traditionally tail off quickly to the end of their careers.

You're Pettine. Which three do you want go with?

Oh ... and you're Farmer, The three young backs are all on team-friendly rookie contracts, while the former pro bowler will want go somewhere where he is promised a role and get paid for that past performance that Baltimore worked out of him.

You're giving up a roster spot, and lineup spot, of one of these three guys to hire a guy whose best years are undoubtedly behind him?

Ok, well I hope you are GM in my division, because we'll just send over our leftovers after we've taken the best years out of them and hope you give up on a 24 year old with NFL starting RB skills.

Zombo

[Kosar_For_President]

Duke Johnson will have 1,500 yards of offense this year. Done.

[D Bone]

@kosar_for_president said:

Duke Johnson will have 1,500 yards of offense this year. Done.

I pretty much agree. I don't see any realistic scenario where we would ever sign the Wife Beater, er, Fiancé Beater.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

Zombo said:

My opinion is that he has jumped the shark. You are welcome to disagree, and I see you have taken that route. Which is fine. But you are eventually going to find out that I was right, and here's why:

These running backs at the elite level only have so many hits they can take before they start to decline. Every once in awhile there is a Curtis Martin that is playing his best ball at 30, but that is rare.

Rice is 28, he has 1430 NFL carries and 369 receptions. He had another 910 college carries and 37 receptions. So, 2,746 times he has been the man with the ball with everyone trying to kill him ... that's a lot of hits.

He is 5'9" 195 lbs. That is a small back to take that kind of beating. Between 2010 and 2011 alone, he carried the ball 598 times, and was thrown to another 187 times.

Kudos to Baltimore for getting the most possible out of him. But why do you want to be the team that gets the aftermath?

Pro Football Reference lists "similar players" who are players that have had similar careers of length and quality. Here are Rice's matches:

Billy Sims, Gale Sayers, Jamaal Charles, William Andrews, Terrell Davis, Robert Smith, Abner Haynes, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Deuce McAllister

So let's take a look at when they "jumped the shark":

Billy Sims, Done at 29

Gale Sayers*, Done at 28, last good season at 26

Jamaal Charles Going strong at 28

William Andrews, Done at 28 (failed comeback at 31)

Terrell Davis, Done at 29, last good season at 26

Robert Smith, Done at 28

Abner Haynes, done at 30, last good year at 27

Arian Foster, Going strong at 28

LeSean McCoy, going strong at 26

Deuce McAllister, Done at 30, last good year at 28

Here are additional guys that they list as "similar careers through six years"

O.J. Simpson, Done at 32, last good year at 29

Clinton Portis, Done at 29, last good year at 27

Freeman McNeil, Done at 33, last good year at 29

Marcus Allen, Done at 37

Mark van Eeghen, Done at 31, last good year at 28

Adrian Peterson, Going strong through 28

Ricky Williams, Done at 34 , last good year at 32

So, Sims, Sayers, Andres, Davis, Smith, Hayes, Mcallister, Simpson, Portis, McNeil and Van Eeghan ... 11 guys shot by age 29

Allen & Williams ... 2 Guys effective at 29 and beyond.

2 out of 13 completed careers

Charles, Foster, McCoy and Peterson ... going strong ... odds are they start tailing off soon, but there could be a Marcus Allen in the bunch

So what kind of candidate is Rice to be an Allen and not a typical guy that is done by 29 (next year)?

Well let's look at his career arc:

2011 24 BAL 291 carries 1364 yards 12 TDs 4.7 ypc

2012 25 BAL 257 carries 1143 yards 9 TDs 4.4 ypc

2013 26 BAL 214 carries 660 yards 4 TDs 3.1 ypc

Dropoff from 24 to 25.

Dramatic dropoff from 25 to 26

This is your candidate to flourish at 28?

So if you take into account all factors: History (15 % of similar backs were effective after his current age), size (much smaller than the average of all these backs), injury (injured hip his last season), and production (dramatic dropoff over last two seasons) I'm going to go ahead and say he's a risky proposition.

So you are the Browns and you look at this guy's last season and current age compared to what you have on the roster:

Player A (Crow), Age 22, 148 att 607 yds 4 Tds 4.1 ypc

Player B (West) Age 24, 171 att 673 yds 4 Tds 3.9 ypc

Player C (Rice) Age 28, 214 att 660 yds 4 Tds 3.1 ypc

Player D (Johnson) Age 21, 3rd round pick

So you got the guy with 1,430 carries of tread on the tire who is 4-7 years older than the other three guys and was less productive in his last season than the two that played last year.

Three developing backs, all healthy and young, two of whom produced as rookies in an offense with not much of a passing game to scare anyone.

Player A is only 22 and showed great promise as a rookie. Player B was drafted in the third round last year and may not have even tapped his potential yet. Player C is expected to come right in and be the "lightning" back. Player D was once great, but has taken a lot of hits, had his numbers decline dramatically for consecutive years and is at an age where NFL backs traditionally tail off quickly to the end of their careers.

You're Pettine. Which three do you want go with?

Oh ... and you're Farmer, The three young backs are all on team-friendly rookie contracts, while the former pro bowler will want go somewhere where he is promised a role and get paid for that past performance that Baltimore worked out of him.

You're giving up a roster spot, and lineup spot, of one of these three guys to hire a guy whose best years are undoubtedly behind him?

Ok, well I hope you are GM in my division, because we'll just send over our leftovers after we've taken the best years out of them and hope you give up on a 24 year old with NFL starting RB skills.

Zombo

This is all fantastic research. Truly, it is.

Except the thread was about the possibility of adding Rice if both Crowell and West showed signs of struggling throughout camp. It was not "bring in Rice and have him compete in an open competition with everyone". You then proclaimed "Rice would be our fourth back on the depth chart today" - to which I still claim, despite your extensive research and comparative studies, that he would not be the fourth back on the depth chart. And my reasoning for that is much, much, more simple-

Josh McCown.

Josh McCown is clearly, and I mean clearly, in the twilight of his career - yet he was brought in to be the starter over a stable of young, talented QB's (and I'm not solely referencing Manziel, either).

Now, according to this chart (which is based solely on fantasy output, so it's not the most reliable, I'll admit) a 28 year old runningback is at roughly at the same point of "contributive decay" (as I've now termed it) as a 36 year old QB - meaning that Rice and McCown are in very similar spots in their career arcs. However, the Browns saw enough in him, after his debacle of a 2014 season, to sign him to a contract that is worth $5 million.

So, tell me, if you're Farmer, why do you sign an aging veteran who's best years are inarguably ahead of him when you have a young player with a team-friendly contract who's best years are arguably ahead of him?

Two reasons:

1) The players at that position had no veteran presence (successful or otherwise) to learn from.

2) The franchise had no protection if all of those inexperienced players proved to be garbage.

The team clearly felt that McCown both added positive short term value to the team in terms of production, while simultaneously adding positive long term value to the team in terms of mentoring the bottom of the roster. Keep in mind, quarterback is very much a zero sum position - if one player plays...the other doesn't. So signing an old veteran to a medium to large-ish contract is more indicative of a starter intent than for other positions.

If Rice were brought into the mix, he would hands down be the number one RB on the depth chart. If a 35 year old journeyman can supplant the first round pick wunderkind, it's probably fair to say that a three-time Pro Bowler would easily carve a nice starting role in our backfield over a rookie, a UDFA and a mid-round pick.

Once again, at no point did I call for us to sign Rice. I'm only responding to your claim that Rice would be the fourth RB on the depth chart if he were signed today, which I think is equal parts homerism and equal parts personal opinion of off-field issues.

I am happy with West, excited about Crow and intrigued by Johnson. I think the pair of Crow and Johnson could be killer. Bringing in Rice would not be a smart football move at the current moment. But I had to chime in when I saw that bit about depth chart positioning.

[Zombo]

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

Except the thread was about the possibility of adding Rice if both Crowell and West showed signs of struggling throughout camp.

1. Why do we need a contingency plan if both Crowell and West struggle throughout camp? Why would that happen?

2. Rice will have job before training camp plays out. He'll be in Dallas or somewhere.

Josh McCown.

Josh McCown is clearly, and I mean clearly, in the twilight of his career - yet he was brought in to be the starter over a stable of young, talented QB's (and I'm not solely referencing Manziel, either).

Now, according to this chart (which is based solely on fantasy output, so it's not the most reliable, I'll admit) a 28 year old runningback is at roughly at the same point of "contributive decay" (as I've now termed it) as a 36 year old QB - meaning that Rice and McCown are in very similar spots in their career arcs. However, the Browns saw enough in him, after his debacle of a 2014 season, to sign him to a contract that is worth $5 million.

So, tell me, if you're Farmer, why do you sign an aging veteran who's best years are inarguably ahead of him when you have a young player with a team-friendly contract who's best years are arguably ahead of him?

Two reasons:

1) The players at that position had no veteran presence (successful or otherwise) to learn from.

2) The franchise had no protection if all of those inexperienced players proved to be garbage.

The team clearly felt that McCown both added positive short term value to the team in terms of production, while simultaneously adding positive long term value to the team in terms of mentoring the bottom of the roster. Keep in mind, quarterback is very much a zero sum position - if one player plays...the other doesn't. So signing an old veteran to a medium to large-ish contract is more indicative of a starter intent than for other positions.

If Rice were brought into the mix, he would hands down be the number one RB on the depth chart. If a 35 year old journeyman can supplant the first round pick wunderkind, it's probably fair to say that a three-time Pro Bowler would easily carve a nice starting role in our backfield over a rookie, a UDFA and a mid-round pick.

C'mon, man. You KNOW QB is different.

Manziel right now is more questions than answers. So we definitely need a veteran option at the position. Leadership is crucial at QB. At RB, they run you till you lose your legs and then they replace you.

A stable of West, Crow and Duke at RB ... nice job collecting young talent.

A stable of Manziel, Thad and Connor Shaw ... "holy fuck, what is this team thinking?"

Once again, at no point did I call for us to sign Rice. I'm only responding to your claim that Rice would be the fourth RB on the depth chart if he were signed today, which I think is equal parts homerism and equal parts personal opinion of off-field issues.

I see you have adopted the Wargograw method of "I'm going to tell you what you what you're thinking, and then I am going to use it against you."

All of these posts about Rice in these threads, all of this analysis and research ... have I have even hinted at off-field issues?

(No, no I haven't)

Homerism? Wouldn't I want the best for my team?

Your take: Rice would be at the top of our depth chart, but don't sign him, because I am happy, excited and intrigued with our current running backs.

My take: We're not signing Rice, he would be the fourth most effective back on our roster at this point in his career.

I'm a homer holding a grudge against Rice for off-field issues.

You're not a homer at all, you just love our running backs too much to bring in someone that you think is better right now.

Zombo

[Mudfly]

When I look at this and compare the RB situation to the QB or CB situation, I see some differences....

I feel like the Browns did sign McCown and Williams to provide leadership to the young pups(JFF, Shaw and Gilbert), but mor importantly, I think they needed instant starters because the young pups didnt do so well last year and....based upon last years performance.... they really dont have confidence in them to start and play well from day one....

Conversely...and the difference I see at RB....is those young pups(West & Crowell) DID play well and, with Crow especially, met or exceeded most peoples expectations. Both West and Crow finished the season as top 30 RB's.....so, Id say there is MUCH more reason to expect a good or better performance this year....

So, compared to Manziel and Gilbert, those 2 performed very well.

Another consideration that cant be left out is that we DID sign a veteran back last year....TATE.....and cut him midway through the season.....which, to me, says the coaches had developed enough confidence in the young backs to release the veteran....

Finally.....IF we were to sign a veteran back to tutor the youth and teach them how to "play like Browns.....do you think they would sign a guy with such questionable character as a leader???.......and do you think they would want another overwhelming press mob asking about yet another problem child player?

Just....dont.....see....it....at.....all

[The Gipper]

Zombo said:

My opinion is that he has jumped the shark. You are welcome to disagree, and I see you have taken that route. Which is fine. But you are eventually going to find out that I was right, and here's why:

These running backs at the elite level only have so many hits they can take before they start to decline. Every once in awhile there is a Curtis Martin that is playing his best ball at 30, but that is rare.

Rice is 28, he has 1430 NFL carries and 369 receptions. He had another 910 college carries and 37 receptions. So, 2,746 times he has been the man with the ball with everyone trying to kill him ... that's a lot of hits.

He is 5'9" 195 lbs. That is a small back to take that kind of beating. Between 2010 and 2011 alone, he carried the ball 598 times, and was thrown to another 187 times.

Kudos to Baltimore for getting the most possible out of him. But why do you want to be the team that gets the aftermath?

Pro Football Reference lists "similar players" who are players that have had similar careers of length and quality. Here are Rice's matches:

Billy Sims, Gale Sayers, Jamaal Charles, William Andrews, Terrell Davis, Robert Smith, Abner Haynes, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Deuce McAllister

So let's take a look at when they "jumped the shark":

Billy Sims, Done at 29

Gale Sayers*, Done at 28, last good season at 26

Jamaal Charles Going strong at 28

William Andrews, Done at 28 (failed comeback at 31)

Terrell Davis, Done at 29, last good season at 26

Robert Smith, Done at 28

Abner Haynes, done at 30, last good year at 27

Arian Foster, Going strong at 28

LeSean McCoy, going strong at 26

Deuce McAllister, Done at 30, last good year at 28

Here are additional guys that they list as "similar careers through six years"

O.J. Simpson, Done at 32, last good year at 29

Clinton Portis, Done at 29, last good year at 27

Freeman McNeil, Done at 33, last good year at 29

Marcus Allen, Done at 37

Mark van Eeghen, Done at 31, last good year at 28

Adrian Peterson, Going strong through 28

Ricky Williams, Done at 34 , last good year at 32

So, Sims, Sayers, Andres, Davis, Smith, Hayes, Mcallister, Simpson, Portis, McNeil and Van Eeghan ... 11 guys shot by age 29

Allen & Williams ... 2 Guys effective at 29 and beyond.

2 out of 13 completed careers

Charles, Foster, McCoy and Peterson ... going strong ... odds are they start tailing off soon, but there could be a Marcus Allen in the bunch

So what kind of candidate is Rice to be an Allen and not a typical guy that is done by 29 (next year)?

Well let's look at his career arc:

2011 24 BAL 291 carries 1364 yards 12 TDs 4.7 ypc

2012 25 BAL 257 carries 1143 yards 9 TDs 4.4 ypc

2013 26 BAL 214 carries 660 yards 4 TDs 3.1 ypc

Dropoff from 24 to 25.

Dramatic dropoff from 25 to 26

This is your candidate to flourish at 28?

So if you take into account all factors: History (15 % of similar backs were effective after his current age), size (much smaller than the average of all these backs), injury (injured hip his last season), and production (dramatic dropoff over last two seasons) I'm going to go ahead and say he's a risky proposition.

So you are the Browns and you look at this guy's last season and current age compared to what you have on the roster:

Player A (Crow), Age 22, 148 att 607 yds 4 Tds 4.1 ypc

Player B (West) Age 24, 171 att 673 yds 4 Tds 3.9 ypc

Player C (Rice) Age 28, 214 att 660 yds 4 Tds 3.1 ypc

Player D (Johnson) Age 21, 3rd round pick

So you got the guy with 1,430 carries of tread on the tire who is 4-7 years older than the other three guys and was less productive in his last season than the two that played last year.

Three developing backs, all healthy and young, two of whom produced as rookies in an offense with not much of a passing game to scare anyone.

Player A is only 22 and showed great promise as a rookie. Player B was drafted in the third round last year and may not have even tapped his potential yet. Player C is expected to come right in and be the "lightning" back. Player D was once great, but has taken a lot of hits, had his numbers decline dramatically for consecutive years and is at an age where NFL backs traditionally tail off quickly to the end of their careers.

You're Pettine. Which three do you want go with?

Oh ... and you're Farmer, The three young backs are all on team-friendly rookie contracts, while the former pro bowler will want go somewhere where he is promised a role and get paid for that past performance that Baltimore worked out of him.

You're giving up a roster spot, and lineup spot, of one of these three guys to hire a guy whose best years are undoubtedly behind him?

Ok, well I hope you are GM in my division, because we'll just send over our leftovers after we've taken the best years out of them and hope you give up on a 24 year old with NFL starting RB skills.

Zombo

Z.....why would you think that Rice should get paid for his past performance? Or, should I say, why does Rice or his agent think he should get paid for his past performance?

[Flugel]

Zombo said:

My opinion is that he has jumped the shark. You are welcome to disagree, and I see you have taken that route. Which is fine. But you are eventually going to find out that I was right, and here's why:

These running backs at the elite level only have so many hits they can take before they start to decline. Every once in awhile there is a Curtis Martin that is playing his best ball at 30, but that is rare.

Rice is 28, he has 1430 NFL carries and 369 receptions. He had another 910 college carries and 37 receptions. So, 2,746 times he has been the man with the ball with everyone trying to kill him ... that's a lot of hits.

He is 5'9" 195 lbs. That is a small back to take that kind of beating. Between 2010 and 2011 alone, he carried the ball 598 times, and was thrown to another 187 times.

Kudos to Baltimore for getting the most possible out of him. But why do you want to be the team that gets the aftermath?

Pro Football Reference lists "similar players" who are players that have had similar careers of length and quality. Here are Rice's matches:

Billy Sims, Gale Sayers, Jamaal Charles, William Andrews, Terrell Davis, Robert Smith, Abner Haynes, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Deuce McAllister

So let's take a look at when they "jumped the shark":

Billy Sims, Done at 29

Gale Sayers*, Done at 28, last good season at 26

Jamaal Charles Going strong at 28

William Andrews, Done at 28 (failed comeback at 31)

Terrell Davis, Done at 29, last good season at 26

Robert Smith, Done at 28

Abner Haynes, done at 30, last good year at 27

Arian Foster, Going strong at 28

LeSean McCoy, going strong at 26

Deuce McAllister, Done at 30, last good year at 28

Here are additional guys that they list as "similar careers through six years"

O.J. Simpson, Done at 32, last good year at 29

Clinton Portis, Done at 29, last good year at 27

Freeman McNeil, Done at 33, last good year at 29

Marcus Allen, Done at 37

Mark van Eeghen, Done at 31, last good year at 28

Adrian Peterson, Going strong through 28

Ricky Williams, Done at 34 , last good year at 32

So, Sims, Sayers, Andres, Davis, Smith, Hayes, Mcallister, Simpson, Portis, McNeil and Van Eeghan ... 11 guys shot by age 29

Allen & Williams ... 2 Guys effective at 29 and beyond.

2 out of 13 completed careers

Charles, Foster, McCoy and Peterson ... going strong ... odds are they start tailing off soon, but there could be a Marcus Allen in the bunch

So what kind of candidate is Rice to be an Allen and not a typical guy that is done by 29 (next year)?

Well let's look at his career arc:

2011 24 BAL 291 carries 1364 yards 12 TDs 4.7 ypc

2012 25 BAL 257 carries 1143 yards 9 TDs 4.4 ypc

2013 26 BAL 214 carries 660 yards 4 TDs 3.1 ypc

Dropoff from 24 to 25.

Dramatic dropoff from 25 to 26

This is your candidate to flourish at 28?

So if you take into account all factors: History (15 % of similar backs were effective after his current age), size (much smaller than the average of all these backs), injury (injured hip his last season), and production (dramatic dropoff over last two seasons) I'm going to go ahead and say he's a risky proposition.

So you are the Browns and you look at this guy's last season and current age compared to what you have on the roster:

Player A (Crow), Age 22, 148 att 607 yds 4 Tds 4.1 ypc

Player B (West) Age 24, 171 att 673 yds 4 Tds 3.9 ypc

Player C (Rice) Age 28, 214 att 660 yds 4 Tds 3.1 ypc

Player D (Johnson) Age 21, 3rd round pick

So you got the guy with 1,430 carries of tread on the tire who is 4-7 years older than the other three guys and was less productive in his last season than the two that played last year.

Three developing backs, all healthy and young, two of whom produced as rookies in an offense with not much of a passing game to scare anyone.

Player A is only 22 and showed great promise as a rookie. Player B was drafted in the third round last year and may not have even tapped his potential yet. Player C is expected to come right in and be the "lightning" back. Player D was once great, but has taken a lot of hits, had his numbers decline dramatically for consecutive years and is at an age where NFL backs traditionally tail off quickly to the end of their careers.

You're Pettine. Which three do you want go with?

Oh ... and you're Farmer, The three young backs are all on team-friendly rookie contracts, while the former pro bowler will want go somewhere where he is promised a role and get paid for that past performance that Baltimore worked out of him.

You're giving up a roster spot, and lineup spot, of one of these three guys to hire a guy whose best years are undoubtedly behind him?

Ok, well I hope you are GM in my division, because we'll just send over our leftovers after we've taken the best years out of them and hope you give up on a 24 year old with NFL starting RB skills.

Zombo

Tough to argue against any of that.

Look at some of the RBs we signed in the past that were about Rice's age give or take a year. We signed RBs like Terry Kirby, Errict Rhett, Abdul Jabbar, Curtis Enos (for a day or 2) - none of which were about to play their best football. And who could ever forget the front office light bulb moment to sign Rashaan Salaam right after his marijuana sabbatical leave. Peyton Hillis was a 1 year wonder that died off before age 26 or 27.

Meanwhile, the Jamal Lewis that once piled up 500 of his 2000 yards against us in just 6 quarters came here as a fraction of his old self. He gave us a decent season in 2007 but was complaining about why a bad team has to practice a little over 2 hours just a year or 2 later. Reuben Droughns topped 1000 yards but only gave us something like 2 rushing TDs the 1 year we were happy to have him. I think he was done by age 27 or 28 too.

[Mudfly]

another good name to add to that mix would be Jamal Lewis.....ex Ravens monster runner.....signed by the Browns....washed up at 28.....I see a lot of parallels there....

Reason # 301.....I dont want ex Ravens or Stoolers on my team.....already have too much invested in hating them

[Mudfly]

whoops......am i crazy??....completely missed this////

Meanwhile, the Jamal Lewis that once piled up 500 of his 2000 yards against us in just 6 quarters came here as a fraction of his old self. He gave us a decent season in 2007 but was complaining about why a bad team has to practice a little over 2 hours just a year or 2 later. Reuben Droughns topped 1000 yards but only gave us something like 2 rushing TDs the 1 year we were happy to have him. I think he was done by age 27 or 28 too.

[Flugel]

@mudfly said:

whoops......am i crazy??....completely missed this////

Meanwhile, the Jamal Lewis that once piled up 500 of his 2000 yards against us in just 6 quarters came here as a fraction of his old self. He gave us a decent season in 2007 but was complaining about why a bad team has to practice a little over 2 hours just a year or 2 later. Reuben Droughns topped 1000 yards but only gave us something like 2 rushing TDs the 1 year we were happy to have him. I think he was done by age 27 or 28 too.

No big deal. I'm glad someone else had a similar thought about that to be honest.