Analytics say........ GOFF over Wentz
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Not even close according to the analytics...
Goff - 38.7% chance of being elite; 28% bust potential
Wentz - 13.8% and 61.9%, respectively
What say you?
Not even close according to the analytics...
Goff - 38.7% chance of being elite; 28% bust potential
Wentz - 13.8% and 61.9%, respectively
What say you?
That study tells us exactly nothing new, in that its main two points of analysis are essentially "experience" and "value over replacement". Jared Goff is by far the more experienced QB and that NDSU team ran nearly equally as smooth with a different QB. He is, of course, the safer pick - he played at a high level in a more competitive league for a longer period of time.
What it isn't taking into account (and really what no analytic study can) is projected offensive fit and production after making the jump. That's where the argument for Wentz lies. If the Browns are truly becoming a purely analytical driven franchise, Goff would no doubt make sense (although most analytical models would likely point to trading down and acquiring more draft picks, IMO).
What is interesting to me is the comparison points. DYAR is measured by comparing a player to a computed league average player, per their own definition. Are Wentz and Goff being compared to the same "replacement player" or are they being compared differently due to the fact one is FBS and the other FCS? Are they being compared to the NFL league average QB, because then of course the stats would be skewed in favor of an offense that more heavily relies on the pass.
Another factor to consider is what the entry barrier is for "elite" - what constitutes an elite QB? Because I'm sure that, regardless of what algorithm computes "elite" production - Peyton Manning wouldn't be considered elite this year. Cam Newton wouldn't have been considered elite last year. Aaron Rodgers likely wouldn't have been considered elite this year. Philip Rivers might not ever be considered "elite". Nor would Joe Flacco, possibly. Yet all of them are among the top QB's in the league.
Personally, I love this stuff. It's very interesting to figure out how the numbers either defend or destroy perceptions.
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I agree wholeheartedly. Go Goff.
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+1
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Wentz. I don't know why, just my gut. Don't really even like the idea of either at two, but coming around to the idea. Goff has a Matt Barkley thing going on IMO.
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Wentz. I don't know why, just my gut. Don't really even like the idea of either at two, but coming around to the idea. Goff has a Matt Barkley thing going on IMO.
Wentz. I don't know why, just my gut. Don't really even like the idea of either at two, but coming around to the idea. Goff has a Matt Barkley thing going on IMO.
This exactly all my gut on Wentz!!! I believe he as an athletic,outdoorsy, Big Ben like QB! With Kosar attributes as in intelligence,competitiveness,and love of the game! I'm Wentz all the way!
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VesnaKociper said:
Analytics tell us that Tim Couch Pulls Out is the biggest dick to ever walk the earth. Still, he only gets goat pussy.
Has* the biggest dick, and the pussy I get is the greatest of all time, you're right.
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Analytics!
Who will the Browns draft?
Mike
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Of course the analytics says that. Much higher floor on Goff.
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VesnaKociper said:
Analytics tell us that Tim Couch Pulls Out is the biggest dick to ever walk the earth. Still, he only gets goat pussy.
Some Goat.
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I don't think the Browns draft either
Aditi K. reporting out of Berea on NFL Network this a.m. says don't be surprised if the Browns trade down out of #2 to add more draft picks to the 10 they already have.
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Aditi K. reporting out of Berea on NFL Network this a.m. says don't be surprised if the Browns trade down out of #2 to add more draft picks to the 10 they already have.
If we trade down and trade Joe Thomas we could have lots of picks .....I dont want to lose Thomas but there have been rumors of him being traded for weeks ......
What would we get for Thomas if we traded him to say Denver ?
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Aditi K. reporting out of Berea on NFL Network this a.m. says don't be surprised if the Browns trade down out of #2 to add more draft picks to the 10 they already have.
If we trade down and trade Joe Thomas we could have lots of picks .....I dont want to lose Thomas but there have been rumors of him being traded for weeks ......
What would we get for Thomas if we traded him to say Denver ?
If we trade down and trade Joe Thomas we could have lots of picks .....I dont want to lose Thomas but there have been rumors of him being traded for weeks ......
What would we get for Thomas if we traded him to say Denver ?
He would go to a 'contender' meaning a low first round pick, and probably a 3rd or so. Or, if ghoolie's the GM, we get a conditional 7th round pick in 2025.
I wouldn't trade Joe Thomas and I don't think they will. They're parting ways with guys underperforming their contract, and Thomas doesn't fall in to that category, really.
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Aditi K. reporting out of Berea on NFL Network this a.m. says don't be surprised if the Browns trade down out of #2 to add more draft picks to the 10 they already have.
If we trade down and trade Joe Thomas we could have lots of picks .....I dont want to lose Thomas but there have been rumors of him being traded for weeks ......
What would we get for Thomas if we traded him to say Denver ?
If we trade down and trade Joe Thomas we could have lots of picks .....I dont want to lose Thomas but there have been rumors of him being traded for weeks ......
What would we get for Thomas if we traded him to say Denver ?
Why don't we just have the entire team consist or rookies then? I will answer my own question: Why? Because that would be stupid.
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If we trade down and trade Joe Thomas we could have lots of picks .....I dont want to lose Thomas but there have been rumors of him being traded for weeks ......
What would we get for Thomas if we traded him to say Denver ?
Why don't we just have the entire team consist or rookies then? I will answer my own question: Why? Because that would be stupid.
Why don't we just have the entire team consist or rookies then? I will answer my own question: Why? Because that would be stupid.
Not necessarily if everyone develops and peaks at about the same time. It would save a lot of over the hill veterans and unproven rookies trying to mesh in a team effort.
WSS
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Why don't we just have the entire team consist or rookies then? I will answer my own question: Why? Because that would be stupid.
Not necessarily if everyone develops and peaks at about the same time. It would save a lot of over the hill veterans and unproven rookies trying to mesh in a team effort.
WSS
Not necessarily if everyone develops and peaks at about the same time. It would save a lot of over the hill veterans and unproven rookies trying to mesh in a team effort.
WSS
And then we lose 75% of them because their contracts reach peak cap numbers at the same time.
It's a goo thought in theory, but unsustainable in practice.
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