Interesting Study Regarding WR Busts
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Glad I got Shepard in the 3rd for the Browns on our fake draft.
Would rather grab him at 32 instead of some of the others mentioned...like Fuller and Smith
My fave receiver in this draft
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http://coldomaha.com/2016/vikings/combing-the-combine-to-uncover-pass-catchers/
Long story short, using a statistical model that places quality scores on receivers based on an age-adjusted formula created by rotoviz and then calculating how many "adjusted" yards a receiver will earn based on their quality score, this author tried to find value picks in this year's draft while also uncovering a few players that scream "bust" - i.e. won't reach their projected level of adjusted yards based on draft position.
Notable top level receivers -
Coleman
Thomas
Shepard
Carroo
Louis
Horn
Johnson
Notable mid-level receivers -
Doctson
Miller
Listenbee
Garrett
Notable busts -
Treadwell
Fuller
Boyd
Cooper
Higgins
Outside of Boyd, who I believe could be a good utility player and decent #2, I'm inclined to agree with most of these findings.
Interesting as these things may be....I doubt they have validity in terms of specifically predicting the future of any particular player.
No more so than saying that 38% of the first of any position drafted has turned out to be a good player or not.
Interesting as these things may be....I doubt they have validity in terms of specifically predicting the future of any particular player.
No more so than saying that 38% of the first of any position drafted has turned out to be a good player or not.
These kind of list fry me. First put them on a team, with a depth chart that may have a immediate need at position, than tell me who's their QB.. Crazy guessing nonsense in progress..
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Interesting as these things may be....I doubt they have validity in terms of specifically predicting the future of any particular player.
No more so than saying that 38% of the first of any position drafted has turned out to be a good player or not.
These kind of list fry me. First put them on a team, with a depth chart that may have a immediate need at position, than tell me who's their QB.. Crazy guessing nonsense in progress..
These kind of list fry me. First put them on a team, with a depth chart that may have a immediate need at position, than tell me who's their QB.. Crazy guessing nonsense in progress..
See my list of WRs on the First vs. Best thread. On there are about 3-5 WRs who could be considered the best of their class though they were lower picks.....and one thing they had in common was that they had Ben Roethlisberger or Tom Brady or Peyton Manning throwing to them.
So there is that factor.
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None of which helps predict the future...
The difference between what the article's micro analytics are trying to do and what a macro, statistical rehash of the past is restricted to doing could not be greater.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
None of which helps predict the future...
The difference between what the article's micro analytics are trying to do and what a macro, statistical rehash of the past is restricted to doing could not be greater.
None of which helps predict the future...
The difference between what the article's micro analytics are trying to do and what a macro, statistical rehash of the past is restricted to doing could not be greater.
Nothing predicts the future.
But given that the analytics, in a bubble, is quite literally the study of data to discover trends, I'd say this fits quite in line with what our FO is likely doing.
Reaching 100% certainty of a future event is impossible, especially in a game where there are limitless uncontrollable variables.
I'm awesome, and I fuck dolphins. Ghoolie 12/2/2012: I have absolutely no skills, training or pride -
Thus the use of "helps"...
If a tool can improve upon a coin-flip like (or worse) probability of future success, then it has value.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
None of which helps predict the future...
The difference between what the article's micro analytics are trying to do and what a macro, statistical rehash of the past is restricted to doing could not be greater.
Nothing predicts the future.
But given that the analytics, in a bubble, is quite literally the study of data to discover trends, I'd say this fits quite in line with what our FO is likely doing.
Reaching 100% certainty of a future event is impossible, especially in a game where there are limitless uncontrollable variables.
Nothing predicts the future.
But given that the analytics, in a bubble, is quite literally the study of data to discover trends, I'd say this fits quite in line with what our FO is likely doing.
Reaching 100% certainty of a future event is impossible, especially in a game where there are limitless uncontrollable variables.
Yup. You take an 'absolute lock' perennial all pro receiver, one bad tackle, multiple torn ligaments and you have a bust. You take a guy projected to do nothing, give him Peyton as his OC and Rodgers as his QB and hey presto, 1000 yard season.
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None of which helps predict the future...
The difference between what the article's micro analytics are trying to do and what a macro, statistical rehash of the past is restricted to doing could not be greater.
None of which helps predict the future...
The difference between what the article's micro analytics are trying to do and what a macro, statistical rehash of the past is restricted to doing could not be greater.
Sure....both efforts could not be different.....and neither are worth a cabbage fart when it comes to predicting the future when it comes to any particular player.
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None of which helps predict the future...
The difference between what the article's micro analytics are trying to do and what a macro, statistical rehash of the past is restricted to doing could not be greater.
Nothing predicts the future.
But given that the analytics, in a bubble, is quite literally the study of data to discover trends, I'd say this fits quite in line with what our FO is likely doing.
Reaching 100% certainty of a future event is impossible, especially in a game where there are limitless uncontrollable variables.
Nothing predicts the future.
But given that the analytics, in a bubble, is quite literally the study of data to discover trends, I'd say this fits quite in line with what our FO is likely doing.
Reaching 100% certainty of a future event is impossible, especially in a game where there are limitless uncontrollable variables.
Well, I hope they know what they are doing and can by use of anal-ytics tell which 5th round WR is going to turn into a superstar.
We don't need any more Vincent Mayles.
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Thus the use of "helps"...
If a tool can improve upon a coin-flip like (or worse) probability of future success, then it has value.
Thus the use of "helps"...
If a tool can improve upon a coin-flip like (or worse) probability of future success, then it has value.
But none of that can ever be know until that future arises.
Its like science fiction: I just got done doing a binge watch on the Battlestar Galactica series. Here is a scenario where they were so advanced that they had like fold space engines and had "robots" that were indistinguishable from humans.....but all their data and communications was pretty much done on paper and cardboard files. This from a series that ran from like 2003-2008. They were not able to "imagine" the use of like Ipad computers or smart phones. Had that series been made a few years later I doubt they would have been using paper files in space.
Same here. No one could have probably imagined that the best WR in the game may have been a guy picked in the 6th round by the Steelers.
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might help. these kind of analyses are only as legit as the amount of
relevant information put into them.
a wr playing vs solid db's, with a weak armed, so-so qb, inadequate oline... won't have as good
of stats as a wr playing against so-so dbs with an excellent qb with a solid oline....
natural grass vs artificial turf.... good weather vs bad weather....
seems more of an exercise in futility....
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might help. these kind of analyses are only as legit as the amount of
relevant information put into them.
a wr playing vs solid db's, with a weak armed, so-so qb, inadequate oline... won't have as good
of stats as a wr playing against so-so dbs with an excellent qb with a solid oline....
natural grass vs artificial turf.... good weather vs bad weather....
seems more of an exercise in futility....
might help. these kind of analyses are only as legit as the amount of
relevant information put into them.
a wr playing vs solid db's, with a weak armed, so-so qb, inadequate oline... won't have as good
of stats as a wr playing against so-so dbs with an excellent qb with a solid oline....
natural grass vs artificial turf.... good weather vs bad weather....
seems more of an exercise in futility....
Sounds more like stuff a bookie would want to know.
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might help. these kind of analyses are only as legit as the amount of
relevant information put into them.
a wr playing vs solid db's, with a weak armed, so-so qb, inadequate oline... won't have as good
of stats as a wr playing against so-so dbs with an excellent qb with a solid oline....
natural grass vs artificial turf.... good weather vs bad weather....
seems more of an exercise in futility....
might help. these kind of analyses are only as legit as the amount of
relevant information put into them.
a wr playing vs solid db's, with a weak armed, so-so qb, inadequate oline... won't have as good
of stats as a wr playing against so-so dbs with an excellent qb with a solid oline....
natural grass vs artificial turf.... good weather vs bad weather....
seems more of an exercise in futility....
With a sufficiently large dataset you can correct for those factors.
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