More Pre Draft Data Dump
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Here are all the WRs taken in the Top 5 of the NFL draft since 1970:
2012 1 5 Justin Blackmon WR 22 JAX 2012 2014 0 0 1 9 20 18 3 22 0 93 1280 6 Oklahoma St. College Stats 42007 1 2 Calvin Johnson WR 21 DET 2007 2015 3 6 9 78 135 130 19 167 1 731 11619 83 Georgia Tech College Stats 62005 1 3 Braylon Edwards WR 22 CLE 2005 2012 0 1 5 41 112 93 4 11 0 359 5522 40 Michigan College Stats 72004 1 3 Larry Fitzgerald WR 21 ARI 2004 2015 1 9 12 81 186 184 18 63 0 1018 13366 98 Pittsburgh College Stats 82003 1 2 Charles Rogers WR 22 DET 2003 2005 0 0 0 4 15 9 2 17 0 36 440 4 Michigan St. College Stats 92003 1 3 Andre Johnson WR 22 HOU 2003 2015 2 7 12 95 185 183 23 54 0 1053 14100 68 Miami (FL) College Stats 102000 1 4 Peter Warrick WR 23 CIN 2000 2005 0 0 4 27 79 60 53 360 2 275 2991 18 Florida St. College Stats 111996 1 1 Keyshawn Johnson WR 24 NYJ 1996 2006 0 3 11 78 167 162 13 91 2 814 10571 64 USC College Stats 121995 1 4 Michael Westbrook WR 23 WAS 1995 2002 0 0 6 38 89 72 22 160 1 285 4374 26 Colorado College Stats 131992 1 4 Desmond Howard WR 22 WAS 1992 2002 0 1 1 18 156 29 12 68 0 123 1597 7 Michigan College Stats 141984 1 1 Irving Fryar WR 21 NWE 1984 2000 0 5 13 79 255 208 44 242 1 851 12785 84 Nebraska College Stats 151984 1 4 Kenny Jackson WR 22 PHI 1984 1991 0 0 4 15 102 53 8 51 0 126 2170 11 Penn St. College Stats 161979 1 5 Jerry Butler WR 21 BUF 1979 1986 0 1 6 35 88 80 4 32 0 278 4301 29 Clemson College Stats 181978 1 3 Wes Chandler WR 22 NOR 1978 1988 1 4 9 80 150 131 16 84 0 559 8966 56 Florida College Stats 19Again, those in red are ones that I think you can label as busts. As with other positions it is pretty much half of them. -
1. Notes on the above:
A. Don't pick a WR that went to school in the state of Michigan 3 for 3 in busts.
B. Irving Fryar and Keyshawn Johnson are the only WRs taken #1 overall. While not HOFers, these were very good players. Certainly not busts.
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Here is another factoid:
1197215Riley OdomsTE22DEN19721983241054153134252112396575541HoustonCollege Stats
He is the ONLY Tight End taken in the first 5 picks of the draft since 1970
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More data: Since 1970 only 6 Punters have been drafted in the first or second rounds.....two of them by the Browns.
1 1973 1 23 Ray Guy HOF P 23 OAK 1973 1986 3 7 14 32 207 0 Southern Miss
2 1979 1 11 Russell Erxleben P 22 NOR 1979 1987 0 0 4 8 59 0 Texas College Stats
3 1977 2 46 Tom Skladany P 22 CLE 1978 1983 0 1 4 12 61 0 Ohio St.
4 1978 2 39 Johnny Evans P 22 CLE 1978 1980 0 0 3 7 48 0 North Carolina St. College Stats
5 1982 2 34 Rohn Stark P 23 BAL 1982 1997 1 4 15 31 233 0 Florida St. College Stats
6 1995 2 56 Todd Sauerbrun P 22 CHI 1995 2007 2 3 3 25 178 0 West Virginia College Stats
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Jerry Butler was a bust?
- AFC ROY in '79...
- Pro Bowl in '80...
- ~2500 yds on 160 catches and 18 TDs in his first three seasons (45 games)...
- Then missed about half of the next two seasons.
If your exercise is about abilities to judge talent, which is what I thought it has been, then injuries should not be included with the "bust" data.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Jerry Butler was a bust?
- AFC ROY in '79...
- Pro Bowl in '80...
- ~2500 yds on 160 catches and 18 TDs in his first three seasons (45 games)...
- Then missed about half of the next two seasons.
If your exercise is about abilities to judge talent, which is what I thought it has been, then injuries should not be included with the "bust" data.
Jerry Butler was a bust?
- AFC ROY in '79...
- Pro Bowl in '80...
- ~2500 yds on 160 catches and 18 TDs in his first three seasons (45 games)...
- Then missed about half of the next two seasons.
If your exercise is about abilities to judge talent, which is what I thought it has been, then injuries should not be included with the "bust" data.
I am really only looking at these guys in a vacuum in terms of their total career production against the other people on the list.
His numbers were less than Braylon Edwards who had Pro Bowls etc. but who I consider a bust. And, yes....injuries can cause a player to be considered a bust if it takes him off the field and unable to produce. That has happened to innumerable players from Steve Emtman to Kijana Carter to Tim Couch to Courtney Brown to perhaps this guy.
If its any consolation to you....I do not consider THIS Jerry Butler a bust:
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Well... observations made in a vacuum tend to suck.
If you did not know the name Gayle Sayers, looking at his place on a list would tell you he sucked.
I get Carter... hurt so early that we never got a read of his NFL potential. Similar occurrence in the QB list with Greg Cook. can't really build a case either way. What that means is that their data point should be excluded... placed in a 4th category, "Injured"... and not included with the busts.
But there is a point where an injured player showed enough to prove he was a good pick no matter his career numbers. Jerry Butler is a good example.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Well... observations made in a vacuum tend to suck.
If you did not know the name Gayle Sayers, looking at his place on a list would tell you he sucked.
I get Carter... hurt so early that we never got a read of his NFL potential. Similar occurrence in the QB list with Greg Cook. can't really build a case either way. What that means is that their data point should be excluded... placed in a 4th category, "Injured"... and not included with the busts.
But there is a point where an injured player showed enough to prove he was a good pick no matter his career numbers. Jerry Butler is a good example.
Well... observations made in a vacuum tend to suck.
If you did not know the name Gayle Sayers, looking at his place on a list would tell you he sucked.
I get Carter... hurt so early that we never got a read of his NFL potential. Similar occurrence in the QB list with Greg Cook. can't really build a case either way. What that means is that their data point should be excluded... placed in a 4th category, "Injured"... and not included with the busts.
But there is a point where an injured player showed enough to prove he was a good pick no matter his career numbers. Jerry Butler is a good example.
Well, again, I just went by his career production average which was only a 35. My cutoff point at looking at that is somewhere around 45-50. Braylon had a 41...and I put his career in the "bust range".
Is this flawed? Sure.
If I looked at say Bo Jackson....his career production numbers would be low as well.
Your point is taken that a guy can have a flash in the pan career, yet be considered a very good pick....but that his total career accomplishment will be low in comparison to others that have longer careers.
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Here is the data on the above, and another way to look at it:
Bo Jackson only had a 22 CA because he only played 4 years. 5.5 CA pts per year
Gale Sayers had a 59 CA in only like 6 years. 9.83 CA pts. per year.
Compare:
Emmitt Smith 170 in a 15 year career...11.33 CA pts. per year.
Walter Payton 168 in a 13 year career...12.92 CA pts per year.
Jim Brown had a 122 in a 9 year career....13.55 CA pts per year.
(maybe we should reassess Bo Jackson's short career....he had spectacular moments but apparently he was not really all that productive on a regular basis compared to Sayers/JB etc.
As to the WRs:
Butler did play 7 years and only had a CA of 35....5.0 CA pts per year
Braylon also played 7 years and had a 41 CA....or 5.85 CA pts per year
Compare Andre Johnson 13 years, 95 CA or 7.3 CA pts per year over a long stretch
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I think with that production stat QBs get more points simply because they have the ball.
E.g Peyton Manning in 17 years had 271 CA pts. or 15.94 per year.
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Points all taken, Gip...
Again, I think it comes down to what is done with the data.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Points all taken, Gip...
Again, I think it comes down to what is done with the data.
Yea, we can look at it different ways.......though I was surprised that Jackson yearly average production was so low.
Again....superflash in the pan apparently.
And that is something to consider with certain positions....like RB or WR. Perhaps they are like home run hitters......low on base pct, low batter average.....but you sure want one with the capability to hit the long ball. Jackson may have been that.....he was not a workhorse RB....but that home run hitter.
Who else may have had a career like that? Sayers perhaps?
Travis Benjamin recently for the Browns?
Bo Jackson was that in both football and baseball.
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