***Official Browns @ Titans Game Day Thread***
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Okay, let's try this with math because it clearly isn't going through to some of you.
The average onside kick recovery percentage is roughly 20%. The average success of the 2 point conversion is about 50%. The extra point percentage is 94% (roughly). The Browns are down 15 points, thus need two scores with one successful 2 point conversion. The timing of the game also requires at least one onside kick. This of course removes the variable of scoring a TD which is a constant rate for both
You have two scenarios:
Option 1 (what occurred):
Go for two on the first score-50%
Get onside kick-20%
Combined, that gives you a 35% chance of success.
When you don't get the two point here, then you have to add in:
Kicking extra point-94%
Getting Onside kick-20%
This gives you a combined 57% of succeeding.
As such, the combined probability of this occurring in game was about 46%.
Option B: The right decision
Kicking extra point-94%
Getting Onside kick-20%
This gives you a combined 57% of succeeding.
Go for two to tie the game on the second: 50%
As such, the combined probability of this occurring in game was about 54%
Removing the low probably variable of a second onside kick statistically gave us a much better chance to win. I literally can't make it clearer than that so I hope to God it goes through for someone here.
EDIT: To add, this doesn't even include the fact that you have score another time in scenario A.
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Okay, let's try this with math because it clearly isn't going through to some of you.
The average onside kick recovery percentage is roughly 20%. The average success of the 2 point conversion is about 50%. The extra point percentage is 94% (roughly). The Browns are down 15 points, thus need two scores with one successful 2 point conversion. The timing of the game also requires at least one onside kick. This of course removes the variable of scoring a TD which is a constant rate for both
You have two scenarios:
Option 1 (what occurred):
Go for two on the first score-50%
Get onside kick-20%
Combined, that gives you a 35% chance of success.
When you don't get the two point here, then you have to add in:
Kicking extra point-94%
Getting Onside kick-20%
This gives you a combined 57% of succeeding.
As such, the combined probability of this occurring in game was about 46%.
Option B: The right decision
Kicking extra point-94%
Getting Onside kick-20%
This gives you a combined 57% of succeeding.
Go for two to tie the game on the second: 50%
As such, the combined probability of this occurring in game was about 54%
Removing the low probably variable of a second onside kick statistically gave us a much better chance to win. I literally can't make it clearer than that so I hope to God it goes through for someone here.
EDIT: To add, this doesn't even include the fact that you have score another time in scenario A.
Okay, let's try this with math because it clearly isn't going through to some of you.
Good effort... that will be completely ineffective...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
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Okay, let's try this with math because it clearly isn't going through to some of you.
The average onside kick recovery percentage is roughly 20%. The average success of the 2 point conversion is about 50%. The extra point percentage is 94% (roughly). The Browns are down 15 points, thus need two scores with one successful 2 point conversion. The timing of the game also requires at least one onside kick. This of course removes the variable of scoring a TD which is a constant rate for both
You have two scenarios:
Option 1 (what occurred):
Go for two on the first score-50%
Get onside kick-20%
Combined, that gives you a 35% chance of success.
When you don't get the two point here, then you have to add in:
Kicking extra point-94%
Getting Onside kick-20%
This gives you a combined 57% of succeeding.
As such, the combined probability of this occurring in game was about 46%.
Option B: The right decision
Kicking extra point-94%
Getting Onside kick-20%
This gives you a combined 57% of succeeding.
Go for two to tie the game on the second: 50%
As such, the combined probability of this occurring in game was about 54%
Removing the low probably variable of a second onside kick statistically gave us a much better chance to win. I literally can't make it clearer than that so I hope to God it goes through for someone here.
EDIT: To add, this doesn't even include the fact that you have score another time in scenario A.
In the first scenario if you get the first two point conversion than you don't have to kick the onside kick so eliminate the 20 percent on that and see what gives you the best probability? Because if I'm doing what I think you didOkay, let's try this with math because it clearly isn't going through to some of you.
The average onside kick recovery percentage is roughly 20%. The average success of the 2 point conversion is about 50%. The extra point percentage is 94% (roughly). The Browns are down 15 points, thus need two scores with one successful 2 point conversion. The timing of the game also requires at least one onside kick. This of course removes the variable of scoring a TD which is a constant rate for both
You have two scenarios:
Option 1 (what occurred):
Go for two on the first score-50%
Get onside kick-20%
Combined, that gives you a 35% chance of success.
When you don't get the two point here, then you have to add in:
Kicking extra point-94%
Getting Onside kick-20%
This gives you a combined 57% of succeeding.
As such, the combined probability of this occurring in game was about 46%.
Option B: The right decision
Kicking extra point-94%
Getting Onside kick-20%
This gives you a combined 57% of succeeding.
Go for two to tie the game on the second: 50%
As such, the combined probability of this occurring in game was about 54%
Removing the low probably variable of a second onside kick statistically gave us a much better chance to win. I literally can't make it clearer than that so I hope to God it goes through for someone here.
EDIT: To add, this doesn't even include the fact that you have score another time in scenario A.
50% 2 2pt try
No onside kick
throw in we have to get a stop at 30% when we know they are running the ball. (40% combined)
94% pat
Combined
58%
And before it's brought up in the option where you kick the pat first you are always going to onside kick following that because you aren't guaranteed to convert the two point conversion after a second touchdown. So you would onside kick it to try and save as much time and timeouts as possible in the case you do fail two point conversion.
Also you added to first one if we don't convert the two point conversion then we would need to get another onside kick. Very true. But the same thing can be said for the second scenario which then makes them have the exact same probability.
Which in that case you would want to have as much time as possible and how do you acheive that? By determining what you need as soon as possible which means going for two on the first score. So since the best odds would be to get the two the first time then kick away and play defense it can be argued he made the right call.
Many many edits I apologize: I originally had the browns stop following kickoff way to high at 50%
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In the first scenario if you get the first two point conversion than you don't have to kick the onside kick so eliminate the 20 percent on that and see what gives you the best probability? Because if I'm doing what I think you didOkay, let's try this with math because it clearly isn't going through to some of you.
The average onside kick recovery percentage is roughly 20%. The average success of the 2 point conversion is about 50%. The extra point percentage is 94% (roughly). The Browns are down 15 points, thus need two scores with one successful 2 point conversion. The timing of the game also requires at least one onside kick. This of course removes the variable of scoring a TD which is a constant rate for both
You have two scenarios:
Option 1 (what occurred):
Go for two on the first score-50%
Get onside kick-20%
Combined, that gives you a 35% chance of success.
When you don't get the two point here, then you have to add in:
Kicking extra point-94%
Getting Onside kick-20%
This gives you a combined 57% of succeeding.
As such, the combined probability of this occurring in game was about 46%.
Option B: The right decision
Kicking extra point-94%
Getting Onside kick-20%
This gives you a combined 57% of succeeding.
Go for two to tie the game on the second: 50%
As such, the combined probability of this occurring in game was about 54%
Removing the low probably variable of a second onside kick statistically gave us a much better chance to win. I literally can't make it clearer than that so I hope to God it goes through for someone here.
EDIT: To add, this doesn't even include the fact that you have score another time in scenario A.
50% 2 2pt try
No onside kick
throw in we have to get a stop at 30% when we know they are running the ball. (40% combined)
94% pat
Combined
58%
And before it's brought up in the option where you kick the pat first you are always going to onside kick following that because you aren't guaranteed to convert the two point conversion after a second touchdown. So you would onside kick it to try and save as much time and timeouts as possible in the case you do fail two point conversion.
Also you added to first one if we don't convert the two point conversion then we would need to get another onside kick. Very true. But the same thing can be said for the second scenario which then makes them have the exact same probability.
Which in that case you would want to have as much time as possible and how do you acheive that? By determining what you need as soon as possible which means going for two on the first score. So since the best odds would be to get the two the first time then kick away and play defense it can be argued he made the right call.
Many many edits I apologize: I originally had the browns stop following kickoff way to high at 50%
In the first scenario if you get the first two point conversion than you don't have to kick the onside kick so eliminate the 20 percent on that and see what gives you the best probability? Because if I'm doing what I think you did
50% 2 2pt try
No onside kick
94% pat
Combined
72%
Even if you want to throw in we have to get a stop at 50% when we know they are running the ball.
Still combined 61%.
And before it's brought up in the option where you kick the pat first you are always going to onside kick following that because you aren't guaranteed to convert the two point conversion after a second touchdown. So you would onside kick it to try and save as much time and timeouts as possible in the case you do fail two point conversion.
You have to onside kick the 1st time given the time, that's where everyone else you did falls apart. no way you don't onside kick after the first score, that's just incorrect.
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In the first scenario if you get the first two point conversion than you don't have to kick the onside kick so eliminate the 20 percent on that and see what gives you the best probability? Because if I'm doing what I think you did
50% 2 2pt try
No onside kick
94% pat
Combined
72%
Even if you want to throw in we have to get a stop at 50% when we know they are running the ball.
Still combined 61%.
And before it's brought up in the option where you kick the pat first you are always going to onside kick following that because you aren't guaranteed to convert the two point conversion after a second touchdown. So you would onside kick it to try and save as much time and timeouts as possible in the case you do fail two point conversion.
You have to onside kick the 1st time given the time, that's where everyone else you did falls apart. no way you don't onside kick after the first score, that's just incorrect.
We had three timeouts and the two minute warning. You don't have to onside kick if you know you only need a touchdown and extra point.You have to onside kick the 1st time given the time, that's where everyone else you did falls apart. no way you don't onside kick after the first score, that's just incorrect.
Edit to include time. We scored with I believe 2:07 left. If two point converted kick off through end zone which every kicker can do. No time.
Run play average 4 seconds call timeout 2:02 left (taking a second off for refs to acknowledge t.o.) next play 4 seconds. Two minute warning 1:58 left. Third down if it's not incomplete pass 1:52 second timeout used. 4th down punt for shits and gigs let's give it 15 seconds which is insanely, long. We have the ball with 1:37 left and a timeout to go give or take 70 yards.
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We had three timeouts and the two minute warning. You don't have to onside kick if you know you only need a touchdown and extra point.You have to onside kick the 1st time given the time, that's where everyone else you did falls apart. no way you don't onside kick after the first score, that's just incorrect.
Edit to include time. We scored with I believe 2:07 left. If two point converted kick off through end zone which every kicker can do. No time.
Run play average 4 seconds call timeout 2:02 left (taking a second off for refs to acknowledge t.o.) next play 4 seconds. Two minute warning 1:58 left. Third down if it's not incomplete pass 1:52 second timeout used. 4th down punt for shits and gigs let's give it 15 seconds which is insanely, long. We have the ball with 1:37 left and a timeout to go give or take 70 yards.
We had three timeouts and the two minute warning. You don't have to onside kick if you know you only need a touchdown and extra point.
Edit to include time. We scored with I believe 2:07 left. If two point converted kick off through end zone which every kicker can do. No time.
Run play average 4 seconds call timeout 2:02 left (taking a second off for refs to acknowledge t.o.) next play 4 seconds. Two minute warning 1:58 left. Third down if it's not incomplete pass 1:52 second timeout used. 4th down punt for shits and gigs let's give it 15 seconds which is insanely, long. We have the ball with 1:37 left and a timeout to go give or take 70 yards.
You're right, and I didn't clarify so fair point. The reason you have to kick the onside there which Hue alluded to without saying (and I agree with) is simple-the defense wasn't going to stop them in that scenario. Hue was smart enough to realize that you have to try to get the ball back via onside because even with those variables I had about 0% faith in the defense holding them for three plays.
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We had three timeouts and the two minute warning. You don't have to onside kick if you know you only need a touchdown and extra point.You have to onside kick the 1st time given the time, that's where everyone else you did falls apart. no way you don't onside kick after the first score, that's just incorrect.
Edit to include time. We scored with I believe 2:07 left. If two point converted kick off through end zone which every kicker can do. No time.
Run play average 4 seconds call timeout 2:02 left (taking a second off for refs to acknowledge t.o.) next play 4 seconds. Two minute warning 1:58 left. Third down if it's not incomplete pass 1:52 second timeout used. 4th down punt for shits and gigs let's give it 15 seconds which is insanely, long. We have the ball with 1:37 left and a timeout to go give or take 70 yards.
We had three timeouts and the two minute warning. You don't have to onside kick if you know you only need a touchdown and extra point.
Edit to include time. We scored with I believe 2:07 left. If two point converted kick off through end zone which every kicker can do. No time.
Run play average 4 seconds call timeout 2:02 left (taking a second off for refs to acknowledge t.o.) next play 4 seconds. Two minute warning 1:58 left. Third down if it's not incomplete pass 1:52 second timeout used. 4th down punt for shits and gigs let's give it 15 seconds which is insanely, long. We have the ball with 1:37 left and a timeout to go give or take 70 yards.
One factual correction... we had only 2 time-outs. We used our first at the 3:07 mark. Nonetheless I agree that kicking deep is an option... where we disagree is that it is only an option in your scenario.
I'd love to hear your take on my thoughts about how the failed 2-pt changed Titans defensive approach.
http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=44448&page=6&do=findComment&comment=645374
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Hue is going to have a rough postgame presser...
You'd think so but he'll talk about "it's my fault, I've got to coach better" and move towards, "the guys are competing, I'm seeing good things out there"
Standard presser
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