John Beck cut
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I couldn't hate second round quarterbacks any more than I currently do.
It's an emerging trend in the NFL, I think, to try and get away with "value" by drafting a second round guy instead of a first round guy and hoping he has first round talent. He never does.
Recent flops include Beck, Stanton, Kolb (2007), Clemens and T Jackson (2006). Not cherry-picked, those are all of the guys. Brohm and Henne (2008) still have their respective juries out, but Rodgers doesn't look like he's leaving GB anytime soon...Henne will get his shot soon (and probably suck).
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I have to think that trend is going to die. It has a miserable track record. The ONLY 2nd round QB to have any success in the last 10 years is Drew Brees, but he was 33rd overall.
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you know what's funny? that Leach character from Texas Tech isn't all wrong about how the NFL drafts QB's. Now I'm not saying Harrel is the next coming of Elway, but certainly the NFL needs to re-evaluate how it drafts QB's. There are far more busts in the 1st round than any other position.
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@shepwrite said:
It's a weird trend, but undeniable. Brodie Croyle and Charlie Frye were third round picks, so they suck, too.Favre was the 33rd pick, just like Brees. But that's like once every 9 years or something.
Wish I could dig up that stat (I think it was from Sporting News, but I could be wrong). The failure rate of QBs drafted in the first round is higher than any other position. If it's any consolation, centers drafted in the first round have the best success rate.
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@shepwrite said:
It's a weird trend, but undeniable. Brodie Croyle and Charlie Frye were third round picks, so they suck, too.Favre was the 33rd pick, just like Brees. But that's like once every 9 years or something.
Wish I could dig up that stat (I think it was from Sporting News, but I could be wrong). The failure rate of QBs drafted in the first round is higher than any other position. If it's any consolation, centers drafted in the first round have the best success rate.
Wish I could dig up that stat (I think it was from Sporting News, but I could be wrong). The failure rate of QBs drafted in the first round is higher than any other position. If it's any consolation, centers drafted in the first round have the best success rate.
But how does that failure rate compare to the failure rate of QB's drafted outside of the 1st round? Everyone loves to "Tom Brady" this type of discussion, but they usually conveniently forget the scores upon scores of late round QB failures.
QB in the NFL is the most difficult position in sports, so the fact that the 1st rounders' failure rate is higher than some other position is to be expected. What's actually relevant is the failure rate relative to other QBs taken elsewhere in the draft.
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Wish I could dig up that stat (I think it was from Sporting News, but I could be wrong). The failure rate of QBs drafted in the first round is higher than any other position. If it's any consolation, centers drafted in the first round have the best success rate.
But how does that failure rate compare to the failure rate of QB's drafted outside of the 1st round? Everyone loves to "Tom Brady" this type of discussion, but they usually conveniently forget the scores upon scores of late round QB failures.
QB in the NFL is the most difficult position in sports, so the fact that the 1st rounders' failure rate is higher than some other position is to be expected. What's actually relevant is the failure rate relative to other QBs taken elsewhere in the draft.
But how does that failure rate compare to the failure rate of QB's drafted outside of the 1st round? Everyone loves to "Tom Brady" this type of discussion, but they usually conveniently forget the scores upon scores of late round QB failures.
QB in the NFL is the most difficult position in sports, so the fact that the 1st rounders' failure rate is higher than some other position is to be expected. What's actually relevant is the failure rate relative to other QBs taken elsewhere in the draft.
Shep has already beat this to death- yeah- your odds are statistically better in the first round, but the consequences of busting are way higher too. Brady\Spurgon Wynn- or Peyton Manning \Ryan Leaf.
Won't disagree with you there- but go dig up some stats of failure rates of comparative DL in round seven.
Or, this could be even more meaningful for the stat freaks- let's find a list of drafted players (by round of course), that lasted more than three years in the NFL, And throw in the undrafted FAs for good measure. And that stat will be stacked, because teams don't want to admit they blew high picks. Joey Harrington anyone? -
I have to think that trend is going to die. It has a miserable track record. The ONLY 2nd round QB to have any success in the last 10 years is Drew Brees, but he was 33rd overall.
I have to think that trend is going to die. It has a miserable track record. The ONLY 2nd round QB to have any success in the last 10 years is Drew Brees, but he was 33rd overall.
While that is VERY true and a good point - the first 2 years were so bad they drafted Philip Rivers right before Drew's BREAKOUT 3rd year. The BEST thing that ever happened to Drew Brees was Philip Rivers holding out for almost all of training camp.
Young QBs mature at different rates. Not all young QBs will get it as fast as Matt Ryan. For example, Troy Aikman was on an evening radio show talking about how he wasn't comfortable and playing the way he wanted to play until midway through season #3. That 1-15 start, fans were all over JJ to start Steve Walsh ahead of him. JJ prolly felt going 3-13 wasn't more important than the learnign process Troy needed.
How many QBs never found success until their 2nd NFL teams or after playing in other leagues?
Jake Delhomme
Brett Favre
Matt Haselbeck
Mark Brunelle
Joe Theisman
Warren Moon
Kurt Warner
Jeff Garcia
Jim Plunkett
STEVE YOUNG
Vinny Testaverde
Chris Chandler
One thing that has changed over time is the rule enforcements on DBs downfield. That has helped QBs considerably and I think it factors into the speed of the QB's maturation process somewhere.
What makes the art of pegging QBs diffiuclt is you REALLY don't know when a kid is going to come along like a Brian Sipe or a Tom Brady offering the goodies the previous 1st round QB couldn't. Now we see a name like Harrell without any ridiculous expectations tied to it and you just nevr know how that can turn out. Sipe and Brady must have had SOME imperfections too but football is all about chemistry. If one has the right intangibles a team is longing for - it could work. Kurt Warner was playing in Arena Football that required quick reads and accurate throws. Then in the NFL he couldn't have landed in a better environment and the freak injury to Trent Green became his golden ticket.
- Tom F.
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I have to think that trend is going to die. It has a miserable track record. The ONLY 2nd round QB to have any success in the last 10 years is Drew Brees, but he was 33rd overall.
I have to think that trend is going to die. It has a miserable track record. The ONLY 2nd round QB to have any success in the last 10 years is Drew Brees, but he was 33rd overall.
Looks like it could evolve into the round you draft your developmental/WildDawg QB. The Dolphins took Pat White at #44, and the guys available next year could go even higher if White makes an immediate impact.
Tim Tebow could be a late 1st/early 2nd round pick, and Oklahoma State's Zac Robinson could move up to the 2nd round based on his dual threat ability (he ran for 562 yards and 8 TD's last year).
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QB busts are just more visible. This was beat to death on draft weekend, but drafting a tackle in round one almost asures you some value. Even if he's a "bust" you move him to RT or even guard. You probably get some return on your money. Almost all positions offer this type of fall-back: special teams contributor, situational contributer, etc. All positions other than QB. You draft a QB in round one and he doesn't become your starter? Bust.
Now, the last two years in Browns-town is another story. We don't know anything about our first rounder because we watched our sixth rounder/cut from his first team guy lumber his way to mediocrity.
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Good call on Brees.
I mean, you're way better off taking a gamble in round 6. Teams'll learn eventually.
mz. said:
Good call on Brees.I mean, you're way better off taking a gamble in round 6. Teams'll learn eventually.
I agree. With that position, you either take them at the top of the heap, or you just hope you find a gem, and your chances of doing that are just as good in the 5th round as they are in the 2nd.
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The Maryland Modells have signed Beck.
He worked out so well for Cam the first time. I bet he's glad to have him again. Should Troy Smith be worried?
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/9535224...-Beck-as-backup
Ravens sign former Dolphins QB Beck as backup
Associated Press
Updated: May 4, 2009, 2:21 PM EST
BALTIMORE (AP) - The Baltimore Ravens have signed quarterback John Beck, who will seek to revive his NFL career after being released by the Miami Dolphins.
Beck, who signed a one-year contract Baltimore announced Monday, played five games in two seasons with Miami. Drafted in the second round of the 2007 draft, Beck went 0-4 as a rookie starter under Cam
Cameron, now Baltimore's offensive coordinator. The quarterback did not play in 2008 under new coach Tony Sparano.
Cut five days after the Dolphins drafted Pat White, Beck is expected to compete against Troy Smith to be the backup behind starter Joe Flacco.
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