Pig flue question

[Westside Steve]

So what's the guess, according to your careful prostheses?

(FST for the grammar police)

WSS

Poll results from the old forum

So six weeks from today the swine flu panic will be

• A worldwide pandemic: 2 votes
• A minor concern: 4 votes
• Still over reported in the news: 3 votes
• Forgotten: 5 votes

[PBJ]

I think it will be forgotten. I tend to agree with David Dobbs.

David Dobbs said:

Of the 110 million people in Mexico, 1,600 cases have been reported, with about 100 deaths—suggesting a mortality rate of 6 percent. This is almost certainly bad math, as the total case count almost certainly ignores thousands or tens of thousands of other cases that have taken milder courses like those in the United States. It's perfectly conceivable Mexico has actually had 10,000 or 100,000 cases—or even 1 million cases. If so, then the kill rate would be not 6 percent but 0.1 percent (given 10,000 cases) or 0.01 percent (given 100,000 cases). If it's 1 million cases (quite possible if this thing really spreads easily) then the mortality rate is just 1 in 10,000. Meanwhile, because the United States is on high alert—and can take special note of people with recent travel to Mexico—it is probably picking up a fairly high percentage of its cases, including milder instances that would have gone unnoticed in Mexico a few weeks ago.

http://www.slate.com/id/2217019/

[Chicopee John]

@westside-steve said:

So what's the guess, according to your careful prostheses? (FST for the grammar police)WSS

Just think.................up to 35K Americans die from the Flu or Flu symptoms each year.

Media frenzy, IMHO.

[We need Tom Tupa]

@chicopee-john said:

Just think.................up to 35K Americans die from the Flu or Flu symptoms each year.

Media frenzy, IMHO.

But those 35k dont tend to be otherwise healthy 35 year olds.

[mz.]

What are the odds cal and T are walking around town with surgical masks on?

I say 1 to 5.

PS What happened to West Nile? Bird Flu?? SARS????????

[lambdo]

It might even be pandemic by the end of the week according to the WHO..

[Mr. T]

Coast to Coast AM George Noory on Swine Flu, 1 0f 7

[mz.]

@mr.-t said:

Coast to Coast AM George Noory on Swine Flu, 1 0f 7

Gotta love the "Tea Party Mentality."

[DieHardBrownsFan]

From the CDC:

Swine Influenza (Flu)

Swine Flu website last updated April 29, 11:00 AM ET

U.S. Human Cases of Swine Flu Infection

(As of April 29, 2009, 11:00 AM ET) States # of laboratory confirmed cases Deaths

Arizona 1

California 14

Indiana 1

Kansas 2

Massachusetts 2

Michigan 2

Nevada 1

New York 51

Ohio 1

Texas 16 1

TOTAL COUNTS 91 cases 1 death

International Human Cases of Swine Flu Infection

See: World Health Organization

The outbreak of disease in people caused by a new influenza virus of swine origin continues to grow in the United States and internationally. Today, CDC reports additional confirmed human infections, hospitalizations and the nation’s first fatality from this outbreak. The more recent illnesses and the reported death suggest that a pattern of more severe illness associated with this virus may be emerging in the U.S. Most people will not have immunity to this new virus and, as it continues to spread, more cases, more hospitalizations and more deaths are expected in the coming days and weeks.

CDC has implemented its emergency response. The agency’s goals are to reduce transmission and illness severity, and provide information to help health care providers, public health officials and the public address the challenges posed by the new virus. Yesterday, CDC issued new interim guidance for clinicians on how to care for children and pregnant women who may be infected with this virus. Young children and pregnant women are two groups of people who are at high risk of serious complications from seasonal influenza. In addition, CDC’s Division of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) continues to send antiviral drugs, personal protective equipment, and respiratory protection devices to all 50 states and U.S. territories to help them respond to the outbreak. The swine influenza A (H1N1) virus is susceptible to the prescription antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir. This is a rapidly evolving situation and CDC will provide updated guidance and new information as it becomes available.

There are everyday actions people can take to stay healthy.

Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.

Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hands cleaners are also effective.

Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread that way.

Try to avoid close contact with sick people.

Influenza is thought to spread mainly person-to-person through coughing or sneezing of infected people.

If you get sick, CDC recommends that you stay home from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them.

Contact Us:

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

1600 Clifton Rd

Atlanta, GA 30333

800-CDC-INFO

(800-232-4636)

TTY: (888) 232-6348

24 Hours/Every Day

[email protected]

******World Health Organization just raised alert level to 5, Pandemic Imminent. ********************

[Kosar_For_President]

Amen.

[mz.]

@diehardbrownsfan said:

******World Health Organization just raised alert level to 5, Pandemic Imminent. ********************

Do you Retards even know what 'pandemic' means? You guys treat it like "world is over, time to panic."

In reality, it means:

* Emergence of a disease new to a population.

* Agents infect humans, causing serious illness.

* Agents spread easily and sustainably among humans.

So it's the flu.

Relax, guys.

[Westside Steve]

@danamal said:

Only pompous lead singers with an inferiority complex will be concerned with this.......

A little hostile today eh grumpmonkey??

WSS

[mz.]

@inspecta said:

Anybody ever see the South Park episode on SARS?

Pretty good stuff.

Basically took all the panic and turned it on it's head. I tried to find a clip of it on youtube, but to no avail

"Rub in that SARS real good..."

[Mr. T]

Is the media helping or hyping?

http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/20...ition=debatehub

[mz.]

Well duh.

Of course the media hypes this shit. It loves it. It's stories like this that get folks scared/tuned in thereby upping their viewership and gaining advertising dollars. Media companies have bottom-lines and shareholders like other publicly-traded companies and care about dollars as much as Microsoft does.

If they don't overhype/sensationalize something, you probably won't tune in. Which sucks for them.

[Mr. T]

How it spreads

(Reuters) - A new strain of influenza is infecting people in Mexico and the United States and may have killed up to 60 people in Mexico, global health officials said on Friday.

The CDC has analyzed samples of the H1N1 virus from some of the U.S. patients, all of whom have recovered, and said it is a never-before-seen mixture of viruses from swine, birds and humans.

Here are some facts from the U.S. Centres for Disease Control and Prevention about how swine flu spreads in humans:

* Swine flu viruses typically sicken pigs, not humans. Most cases occur when people come in contact with infected pigs or contaminated objects moving from people to pigs.

* Pigs can catch human and avian or bird flu. When flu viruses from different species infect pigs, they can mix inside the pig and new, mixed viruses can emerge.

* Pigs can pass mutated viruses back to humans and they can be passed from human to human. Transmission among humans is thought to occur in the same way as seasonal flu -- by touching something with flu viruses and then touching their mouth or nose, and through coughing or sneezing.

* Symptoms of swine flu in people are similar to those of seasonal influenza -- sudden fever, coughing, muscle aches and extreme fatigue. This new strain also appears to cause more diarrhea and vomiting than normal flu.

* Vaccines are available to be given to pigs to prevent swine influenza. There is no vaccine to protect humans from swine flu although the CDC is formulating one. The seasonal influenza vaccine may help provide partial protection against swine H3N2, but not swine H1N1 viruses, like the one circulating now.

* People cannot catch swine flu from eating pork or pork products. Cooking pork to an internal temperature of 160 degrees Fahrenheit (71 degrees Celsius) kills the swine flu virus as it does other bacteria and viruses.

[Mr. T]

Understanding Swine Flu

The trouble starts in poor countries where too many people live in proximity to pigs and poultry.

Article

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124087429334861245.html

By HENRY I. MILLER

The extent and impact of the swine flu epidemic, which appears to have originated in Mexico and spread rapidly to a dozen countries and parts of the U.S., is still unknown. The epidemiology of such disease outbreaks is rather like a jigsaw puzzle, and we are now at the stage where the picture is intriguing even if we're not sure what we're seeing.

Chad Crowe

We do know the number of cases in Mexico exceeds 1,995, there have been at least 149 deaths, and there have been 20 cases in five U.S. states (with no fatalities as yet). And that the outbreak causes us to confront complex issues that encompass medicine, epidemiology, virology and even politics and ethics.

These events demonstrate that good surveillance is needed in order to detect early on that a new infectious agent, transmissible between humans, has emerged. Unfortunately, conditions in many countries are conducive to the emergence of such new infectious agents, especially flu viruses, which mutate rapidly and inventively. Intensive animal husbandry procedures that place poultry and swine in close proximity to humans, combined with unsanitary conditions, poverty and grossly inadequate public-health infrastructure of all kinds -- all of which exist in Mexico, as well as much of Asia and Africa -- make it unlikely that a pandemic can be prevented or contained at the source.

In theory, a flu pandemic might be contained in its early stages by performing "ring prophylaxis" -- aggressively using antiflu drugs, vaccines and quarantines to isolate relatively small outbreaks of the new infectious agent. Addressing H5N1 avian flu in 2005, Johns Hopkins University virologist Donald S. Burke said, "it may be possible to identify a human outbreak at the earliest stage, while there are fewer than 100 cases, and deploy international resources -- such as a WHO [World Health Organization] stockpile of antiviral drugs -- to rapidly quench it. This 'tipping point' strategy is highly cost-effective."

But a strategy can be "cost-effective" only if it is feasible. Early ring prophylaxis might work in Minneapolis, Toronto, Singapore or Zurich. In places such as Indonesia, China and Mexico, however, the expertise, coordination, discipline and infrastructure are lacking. Moreover, there is no vaccine available to prevent infection of humans by the new H1N1 swine flu (or by H5N1 avian flu, for that matter).

The rapid and constant movement of goods and people around the world makes early containment virtually impossible. We saw this with the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic in 2003: Within a matter of weeks, the disease spread rapidly from southern China to infect individuals in some 37 countries, killing about 800.

In the current swine flu outbreak, New York City high-school students apparently brought the virus back from Mexico and infected their classmates. All six cases so far reported in Canada were connected directly or indirectly with travel to Mexico.

Flu viruses can be directly transmitted (via droplets from sneezing or coughing) from pigs to people, and vice versa. These cross-species infections occur most commonly when people are in close proximity to large numbers of pigs, such as in barns, livestock exhibits at fairs, and slaughterhouses. And, of course, flu is transmissible from human to human, either directly or via contaminated surfaces.

Pigs are uniquely susceptible to infection with flu viruses of mammalian and avian origin. This is of concern for a couple of reasons. First, pigs can serve as intermediaries in the transmission of flu viruses from birds to people. And when avian viruses infect pigs, they adapt and become more efficient at infecting mammals -- which makes them more easily transmitted and dangerous to humans.

Second, pigs can serve as hosts in which two (or more) influenza viruses infecting an animal simultaneously can undergo "genetic reassortment," a process in which pieces of viral RNA (the virus's genetic material, similar to DNA) are shuffled and exchanged, creating a new organism. The influenza viruses responsible for the world-wide 1957 and 1968 flu pandemics -- which killed about 70,000 and 34,000, respectively, in the U.S. -- were such viruses, containing genes from both human and avian viruses.

Experience shows that attempts to stem the spread of an outbreak may actually exacerbate it. In 2006, China's chaotic effort to vaccinate 14 billion chickens to control avian flu was compromised by counterfeit vaccines and the absence of protective gear for vaccination teams. This likely spread contagion by vaccinators who carried infected fecal material on their shoes from one farm to another.

The situation in Mexico resembles the scenario we might expect for an outbreak of a major human-to-human pandemic in its earliest stages: a large number of illnesses among social and family contacts of victims; infection of health-care workers and patients in hospitals where the victims are treated; and the rapid spread of confirmed cases from an initial region to other countries as people infected by the virus travel while it is incubating, but before they become seriously ill.

Because they have been stockpiled for use in the event of an avian flu pandemic, large amounts of the antiflu drugs Tamiflu and Relenza are available. However, they must be administered during the first couple of days after symptoms begin to be an effective treatment. They can also prevent the onset of the disease if administered in adequate doses prior to exposure. The danger of using antiflu drugs in poor countries with inadequate public-health facilities such as Mexico is that they may be administered improperly and in suboptimal doses, which would promote viral resistance and intensify an outbreak.

If the swine flu outbreak becomes a pandemic with a high rate of severe complications (such as pneumonia) and death, we will need to be smart, nimble and flexible. That will involve triage on many levels -- including decisions about which patients are likely to benefit from scarce commodities such as drugs and ventilators -- as well as "social engineering" determinations about issues such as mandatory quarantine, the canceling of public events, shutting airports and closing our southern border. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

Dr. Miller, a physician and molecular biologist, is a fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. He is a former flu researcher and was an official at the National Institutes of Health and the Food and Drug Administration from 1977 to 1994.

[calfoxwc]

I think Nasty Piglosi should be quarantined... from everybody except

leftist libs in Congress and Obama and his cabinet.

[DieHardBrownsFan]

She may be the origin of the virus! ROFLMAO!

[Mr. T]

@diehardbrownsfan said:

She may be the origin of the virus! ROFLMAO!