Developmental QB's
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Developmental QB's that pan out are pretty close to as mythical as unicorns. Statistics back that up. It's been posted here before in detail at some point.
Depends on what you'd call a developmental QB.Developmental QB's that pan out are pretty close to as mythical as unicorns. Statistics back that up. It's been posted here before in detail at some point.
Is Rodgers considered a developmental QB? Is Dalton? Is Wilson? Is Brady?
What about Osweiler, Lynch, or Carr? Bortles? Manziel?
What's the line in the sand for "developmental"? Is it based on draft position, current depth chart, team need, or career arc?
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This doesn't have the mountain of data but the article is the gist of it. It generally suggests that if they aren't worth drafting in the top 3 rounds they aren't worth drafting if you are targeting a starter. I think even 3rd rounders rarely prove long term success as starter and yes I know there are exceptions. https://www.google.com/amp/www.windycitygridiron.com/platform/amp/2014/5/5/5682014/nfl-draft-developmental-quarterback-myth
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Mining for QBs late is not fertile ground for starters, so it is not the place to look when you do not have a franchise QB in place. But when you have one, then late is the place to shop for back-ups... and some of them become starters.
That was the NFL routes for Brady, Wilson, Cousins, Dak and many more. All were drafted to be back-ups. All ended up starting early... some on the pure merit of being the better option (Wilson)... others needing a leg up due to the guy in front of them getting hurt, but then taking charge.
It's not the emergence of "exceptions" that keep teams going back and "taking a shot"; it's the search for cheap back-ups when they have a guy.
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This doesn't have the mountain of data but the article is the gist of it. It generally suggests that if they aren't worth drafting in the top 3 rounds they aren't worth drafting if you are targeting a starter. I think even 3rd rounders rarely prove long term success as starter and yes I know there are exceptions. https://www.google.com/amp/www.windycitygridiron.com/platform/amp/2014/5/5/5682014/nfl-draft-developmental-quarterback-myth
This doesn't have the mountain of data but the article is the gist of it. It generally suggests that if they aren't worth drafting in the top 3 rounds they aren't worth drafting if you are targeting a starter. I think even 3rd rounders rarely prove long term success as starter and yes I know there are exceptions. https://www.google.com/amp/www.windycitygridiron.com/platform/amp/2014/5/5/5682014/nfl-draft-developmental-quarterback-myth
What starting QBs in the league right now were taken below the first 3 rounds?
I haven't confirmed this by research, but here are a few names that I think fit:
Brady, obviously
Fitzpatrick?
Tyrod Taylor?
Cousins
Hoyer (Bears?)
Trevor Siemian
(Romo...if you include him)
Prescott
Wilson was round 3
Wasn't Osweiler round 3?
There could actually be as many as one third of starting QBs in the league who were 3rd round or lower...if you think about it.
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Chad Kelly. IMO he can be a very good Pro.
He has some issues with decisionmaking and his mechanics aren't rock solid, but hey, that is why you develop the player. The good is he is aggressive on the field, and can toss the rock.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. -
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I think we picked up two nice developmental QBs last year, we just need a starter.
Hogan was really exciting running around out there like a young Steve Young. He didn't spend camp with us and had no practice reps, so I look forward to seeing how he developes in Hue's system this year.
Z
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Chad Kelly. IMO he can be a very good Pro.
He has some issues with decisionmaking and his mechanics aren't rock solid, but hey, that is why you develop the player. The good is he is aggressive on the field, and can toss the rock.
Chad Kelly. IMO he can be a very good Pro.
He has some issues with decisionmaking and his mechanics aren't rock solid, but hey, that is why you develop the player. The good is he is aggressive on the field, and can toss the rock.
See Manziel, John.
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See Manziel, John.
So, NOW he is serious. Sure.
The Montreal Alouettes need a quarterback.
TEAM NEEDS HEADING INTO FREE AGENCYQuarterback -- starting and backupYounger receiversCanadian depth at every position (especially on defence and at receiver)Depth in secondaryDepth on offensive lineSo do Toronto and Ottawa.Lots of partying can be done in those 3 cities. -
see Chad Kelly.
The Browns have a legit criteria for drafting players. Kelly isn't a fit. Good luck to him getting his life in
order but taking the chance on him would be stupid for the Browns. Isn't going to happen.
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This doesn't have the mountain of data but the article is the gist of it. It generally suggests that if they aren't worth drafting in the top 3 rounds they aren't worth drafting if you are targeting a starter. I think even 3rd rounders rarely prove long term success as starter and yes I know there are exceptions. https://www.google.com/amp/www.windycitygridiron.com/platform/amp/2014/5/5/5682014/nfl-draft-developmental-quarterback-myth
What starting QBs in the league right now were taken below the first 3 rounds?
I haven't confirmed this by research, but here are a few names that I think fit:
Brady, obviously
Fitzpatrick?
Tyrod Taylor?
Cousins
Hoyer (Bears?)
Trevor Siemian
(Romo...if you include him)
Prescott
Wilson was round 3
Wasn't Osweiler round 3?
There could actually be as many as one third of starting QBs in the league who were 3rd round or lower...if you think about it.
some of those for sure are exceptions. Several listed though in my mind don't qualify as quality starters.What starting QBs in the league right now were taken below the first 3 rounds?
I haven't confirmed this by research, but here are a few names that I think fit:
Brady, obviously
Fitzpatrick?
Tyrod Taylor?
Cousins
Hoyer (Bears?)
Trevor Siemian
(Romo...if you include him)
Prescott
Wilson was round 3
Wasn't Osweiler round 3?
There could actually be as many as one third of starting QBs in the league who were 3rd round or lower...if you think about it.
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some of those for sure are exceptions. Several listed though in my mind don't qualify as quality starters.What starting QBs in the league right now were taken below the first 3 rounds?
I haven't confirmed this by research, but here are a few names that I think fit:
Brady, obviously
Fitzpatrick?
Tyrod Taylor?
Cousins
Hoyer (Bears?)
Trevor Siemian
(Romo...if you include him)
Prescott
Wilson was round 3
Wasn't Osweiler round 3?
There could actually be as many as one third of starting QBs in the league who were 3rd round or lower...if you think about it.
some of those for sure are exceptions. Several listed though in my mind don't qualify as quality starters.
I was just listing starters, period. Only 32 starting NFL QB jobs in the world.
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Yep understood. How many of those were 4th round or later? Seems as though the real drop off is 4th round on.I was just listing starters, period. Only 32 starting NFL QB jobs in the world.
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Yep understood. How many of those were 4th round or later? Seems as though the real drop off is 4th round on.I was just listing starters, period. Only 32 starting NFL QB jobs in the world.
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Yep understood. How many of those were 4th round or later? Seems as though the real drop off is 4th round on.I was just listing starters, period. Only 32 starting NFL QB jobs in the world.
Yep understood. How many of those were 4th round or later? Seems as though the real drop off is 4th round on.
I was just about to bring this up. Removing the beloved example example of Tom Brady, here's guys you can throw into the later round mix as good or looking good QB's
Russel Wilson (3rd)
Dak Prescott (4th)
Kirk Cousins (4th)
Tyrod Taylor (6th)
So basically one dude in Taylor and of course Brady were 4th or later. Everyone else listed are not people I'd qualify as quality starting QB's.
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10 year Data from February 2015 Now let's look at little closer at the QBs.
Of the 122 QBs drafted in the last 10 years only 25 have been starters for at least half of their career.
The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter.
The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th.
In the last 10 years, 38 QBs have been drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds and not one has become a starter.
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